Forum for Renewable Energies COMISION FEDERAL DE ELECTRICIDAD A Vertical Integrated Company MÉXICO EUGENIO LARIS February 1 2006
Contents National Electric System Future capacity requirements - POISE Energy Sources for Power Generation. Conclusions 2
National Electric System CFE Overlook 3
Constitution: Article 27.Generation, transmission, transformation, distribution and supply of electric energy, as a public service, is reserved to the State. In this matter no concessions will be granted to the private sector. 4
1992 Reform of the Electric Energy Public Service Law Private sector can participate in those activities which do not involve public service defined as: Independent Power production Cogeneration Generation for self-supply Import and Export 5
Two state Entities Comisión Federal de Electricidad was created in 1937 by a presidential decree, as a decentralized agency of the federal government Luz y Fuerza del Centro (LFC) was created in 1994, as a decentralized agency also. CFE is responsible for planning, constructing and operating the national electric system. LFC is responsible for the distribution in the central area of México. 6
CFE, a State Company CFE is subject to regulation and supervision on the part of the Mexican Government. The Secretary of Energy is the President of the board. Each year the house of representatives approves the federal budget, as well as the financing program and budget for CFE. Tariffs are established by the Secretaria de Hacienda (Ministry of the treasury) 7
CFE: Mission Ensure the supply of electrical power in terms of quality, quantity and price, with appropriate diversification of power sources. Optimize the use of physical, commercial infrastructures and human resources. Provide outstanding customers service. Protect the environment, promote social development, and respect the values of populations where electrical power is provided. 8
9 CFE Organization DIRECCIÓN GENERAL DIRECCIÓN GENERAL DIRECCIÓN DE ADMINISTRACIÓN DIRECCIÓN DE ADMINISTRACIÓN DIRECCIÓN DE PROYECTOS DE INVERSIÓN FINANCIADA DIRECCIÓN DE PROYECTOS DE INVERSIÓN FINANCIADA DIRECCIÓN DE OPERACIÓN DIRECCIÓN DE OPERACIÓN DIRECCIÓN DE FINANZAS DIRECCIÓN DE FINANZAS DIRECCIÓN DE MODERNIZACIÓN Y CAMBIO ESTRUCTURAL DIRECCIÓN DE MODERNIZACIÓN Y CAMBIO ESTRUCTURAL SUBDIRECCIÓN DE TRANSMISIÓN SUBDIRECCIÓN DE TRANSMISIÓN SUBDIRECCIÓN DEL CENACE SUBDIRECCIÓN DEL CENACE SUBDIRECCIÓN DE GENERACIÓN SUBDIRECCIÓN DE GENERACIÓN SUBDIRECCIÓN DE DISTRIBUCIÓN SUBDIRECCIÓN DE DISTRIBUCIÓN SUBDIRECCIÓN TÉCNICA SUBDIRECCIÓN TÉCNICA 3 SUBDIRECCIONES 3 SUBDIRECCIONES 3 SUBDIRECCIONES 3 SUBDIRECCIONES SUBDIRECCIÓN DE PROGRAMACIÓN SUBDIRECCIÓN DE PROGRAMACIÓN
CFE in Figures CFE is the second largest Mexican company, with total assets of 57,300 million dollars, a capital of 32,650 million dollars and sales of 11,320 million dollars. COMISIÓN FEDERAL DE ELECTRICIDAD Installed Capacity: 46,686 MW (Total National Capacity: 52,027 MW) 218 Power Plants, 637 Units 43,950 Km High Tension Transmission Lines 632,400 Km Medium Tension 171,760 MVA Transformation Capacity 13 Distribution areas serving 22.3 million customers 78,900 Active Workers 10
CFE: Regions of Generation NORTH 5 Regions of Generation 46,686 MW in 218 Power Plants* NORTHWEST WEST * It includes hired Independent Power Producers of Energy. CENTRAL SOUTHEAST 11
National Electric System The national electric system has 47,550 MW installed capacity, 864 MW belong to L&FC and 46,686 MW to CFE including IPP s. (Jun 2005) Combined Cycle 10.04% Coal 5.47% Dual 4.42% Conventional Steam 29.41% Geo & Wind 2.02% IPP 17.38% Nuclear 2.87% Gas Turbine 5.93% Diesel 0.32% Hydroelectric 22.15% Power Plant Type Conventional Hydroelectric IPP Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Coal Dual Nuclear Geo & Wind Diesel TOTAL MW 13 982.5 10 530.1 8 262.9 4 776.2 2 818.5 2 600.0 2 100.0 1 364.9 961.7 152.8 47 549.6 218 Power Plants, with 637 Power Units 12
2005 Sales (GWH) and Users Users 22.3 millions Residencial 87.8% Total Sales 185 TWH Residencial 25.5% Comercial 10.4% Industria 58.8% Industrial 0.6% Agrícola 0.5% Servicios 0.7% Agrícola 5.5% Servicios 3.3% Comercial 6.9% 13
Transmission Lines and Substations BC Northwest North 9 Transmission areas 43,950 km. high tension 632,400 km. medium tension BCS Western Northeast Peninsular Substation Line of 400 KV Line of 230 KV Line of 138 KV Line of 115 KV Central Oriental 14
CFE: Distribution Divisions Northwest North 22.3 Million clients 13 Distribution Divisions North Golf Baja California Central Golf Bajío East Jalisco Center West Center South Central East Southeast 15
Future Capacity Requirements - (POISE).- 16
POISE Based on econometric models, CFE defines the investment program with the lowest cost for the electric sector. The Construction and Investment Program Programa de Obras e Inversiones del Sector Eléctrico (POISE) defines all the electric infrastructure needed for the next ten years period. This document is annually updated based on:» Historic evolution.» Expected population Growth.» Regional demand growth.» Economic growth scenarios.» Power Generation Technology 17
Growth Scenarios GNP (%) Moderate Scenario Planned High Estimate 2005-2014 2.8 4.3 5.2 Electric Power Consumption (%) Moderate Scenario Planned High Estimate 2005-2014 4.2 5.2 5.9 18
TWh 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 19 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2013 2001 2004 2007 2010 Power Consumption 5.22% 57 in 1980 294 in 2014 5.2% 177 in 2004
Capacity Requirements Program (2005-2014) This program is the result of the POISE and takes into consideration the available energy sources. Combined Cycle 11730 MW POWER PLANT TYPE Coal 648MW Gas Turbine 504 MW Wind & Geothermal 705 MW Hydroelectric 2244 MW (125 MW GEO and 580 MW WIND) º Power Plants: 59 Total Capacity: 21,529 MW 5 in Operation 8 in Construction 3 in Bid process Free 5698 MW (non committed thus far) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 NET CAPACITY (MW) 20
New Power Plants: 59 Baja California VI (243 MW) Baja California V (243 MW) Baja California Pte. Juárez Conv. (252 MW) TG/CC (82 MW) Baja California IV Cerro Prieto V (100 MW) (252 MW) Baja California III (246 MW) Agua Prieta II (635 MW) Baja California II Guaymas SLRC-(252 MW) (575 MW) Guerrero Negro III (10 MW) Santa Rosalía (14 MW) Baja California Sur V (36 MW) Baja California Sur I (41 MW) Baja California Sur II (43 MW) Baja California Sur III (36 MW) Baja California Sur IV (36 MW) Hermosillo Conversión TG/CC (88 MW) Norte III (647 MW) Presa Reguladora Amata (0 MW) Public Service: 21,529 MW Norte (392 MW) Conversión El Encino TG/CC (65MW) Noroeste (638 MW) Norte II (647 MW) Norte IV (588 MW) La Laguna II (498 MW) Río Bravo IV (500 MW) 2005 5 1,127 2006 5 2,292 2007 3 1,928 2008 3 481 2009 7 1,850 2010 8 2,293 2011 6 1,630 2012 9 4,037 2013 6 3,059 2014 7 2,890 Tamazunchale Altamira V (1,121 MW) El Cajón U1 y U2 (1,135MW) Mérida IV Tamazunchale II (663 MW) (750 MW) (671MW) Geotermoeléctrica Guadalajara II (434 MW) Tamazunchale III (663 MW) Manzanillo II U2 (445 MW) Central III (535 MW) Manzanillo II Rep U1 (445 MW) Tuxpan Conversión TG/CC (89 MW ) Carboeléctrica Guadalajara I Manzanillo I Rep U2 V. de México Tuxpan V (495 MW) (445MW) (434 MW) (373 MW) Manzanillo I Rep U1 (445MW) Eolica Dos Bocas (755 MW) Villita Ampliación (398 MW) Humeros (25 MW) Libre Carboeléctrica del Pacífico (648 MW) Central (V. de México) (373 MW) Dos Bocas II (755 MW) Infiernillo (199 MW) San Lorenzo Conversión TG/CC (130 MW ) Ciclo combinado La Venta V La Venta VI (99 MW) (99 MW) La Parota Hidroeléctrica (897 MW) La Venta II La Venta IV (85 MW) Combustión Interna Tipo Diesel (99 MW) La Venta III La Venta VII (99 MW) (99 MW) Valladolid III (525 MW) Turbogas 21
Present and Future Power Generation Capacity of the Electric Sector Planning Scenario.- Coal & F.O., 3.30% Conventional Steam, 12.20% December 2014: 64,210 MW 3 Coal Fired, 5.10% Un committed, 9.60% 2 Combined Cycle, 39.70% December 2004: 47,550 MW 1 Conventional Steam, 29.41% Coal & F.O., 4.42% Geothermal and Wind, 2.02% Nuclear, 2.87% Coal Fired, 5.47% Geothermal and Wind, 2.60% Nuclear, 2.10% Combined Cycle, 27.42%, Gas Turbine, 5.93% Internal Combustion, Hydroelectric, 0.32% 22.15% Hydroelectric, 19.90% Gas Turbine, 5.10% Internal Combustion, 0.40% 1. Self supply and cogeneration not included 2. This portion will be defined later within the 10 year period, some options are: combined cycle, coal fired, nuclear and renewable energies. 3. Includes distributed generation by LyF. 22
Energy sources for Power Generation.- 23
Available Energy Sources a) Non renewable sources, Fossil: Fuel oil, diesel, natural gas and coal. b) Non renewable, non fossil: Nuclear c) Renewable Energies: Hydroelectric, Wind, Geothermal, Solar and Biomass. 24
a) Fossil Fuel - Sources PJZ PLD SYC PGU, PGD FVL RE GAO GPL MTY, JER RIB PUP TPO MZD LED Cadereyta HUI VDR ALT Madero Import Symbols Convetional Steam Plant MAM, MND Salamanca SLM TUL Tula VAE TUV PRI DBO Minatitlán MDA VAD LRA, NCM CC Plant PEO Cáctus GT Fuel Oil Import Salina Cruz 25
Potencial Sources of Gas ROCKIES CHEYENE DAGGET SAN JUAN EHRENBERG ROSARITO WILCOX HUECO PERMIAN KEYSTONE LNG ROSARITO SAMALAYUCA PERMIAN WAHA BOB WEST HOUSTON LNG LIBERTAD LNG TOPOLOBAMPO EL ENCINO TORREON LOS RAMONES DURANGO SOUTH TEXAS REYNOSA BURGOS LNG ALTAMIRA GAS LANKAHUASA LNG MANZANILLO SALAMANCA PALMILLAS LNG LAZARO CÁRDENAS GOLFO CENTRO CHINAMECA SONDA DE CAMPECHE (CANTAREL) 26
a) Fossil Fuel Fuel Oil and Coal 1. Fuel Oil and Diesel All the national production of fuel oil is used for the production of energy, it is the most expensive and has ecological problems. Therefore, the POISE does not include new conventional power plants using fuel oil. Diesel is included only in small quantities. 2. Coal CFE uses the totality of the Mexican production of coal. New coal fired power plants will have to use imported coal, which is a competitive fuel that entails minor ecological problems and is a viable solution for large generating capacities. The Program includes coal fired plants 27
a) Fossil Fuel - Gas 3. Gas There are additional sources of natural gas in Mexico not yet exploited. Moreover, the LNG technology is available and gas deposits can be contracted abroad at competitive prices. Gas generation is less pollutant and can be developed in great quantities at low prices. Large scale gas power generating projects are feasible and are widely used in the POISE. 28
b) Non Renewable, non Fossil Nuclear Energy in the World. Nuclear energy generation has regained the attention of the developed countries as a real option to contribute to reduce CO 2 emissions. The International Atomic energy Organization (IAEO) predicts the construction of eight 1000 MW units, in the next 15 years. China has 6.4 GW installed. In the year 2020 its installed capacity will be between 32 and 40 GW. Other countries like Russia, India and some European Union countries will include the return of Nuclear energy in their Energy polices. The USA has 104 reactors installed, equivalent to 19.9% of their total electric energy generation, and plans to install a new nuclear plant to start commercial operation in the first years of the next decade. Third generation (ABWR & EPR) reactors have standardized design which reduces the investment costs to approximately one thousand dollars per kw and overall project time is 7-9 years. 29
b) Non Renewable, non Fossil Nuclear Energy in Mexico In Mexico, CFE s Laguna Verde Power Plant will be upgraded to add 20% of its present capacity (units 1 & 2). A new nuclear station is under study by CFE, it may be in commercial operation after 2015, considering the time it takes for the social acceptance, design, bid process and construction. For this technology we depend on imported enriched uranium. In a mid to long term future this technology can produce large amounts of energy. 30
c) Renewable Energies The renewable sources available to CFE for power generation are: Hydroelectricity Wind Geothermal Solar and Biomass 31
Hydroelectric Power National electric System (SEN) 2 0 0 4 Only 20% of the Hydroelectric Potential is used Number of Power Plants 79 Number of Units 223 Capacity 10,530 MW Percentage of the total capacity 22.15 % Energy Generated 25,075 GWh Percentage of Generation 15.56 % 32
Hydroelectric Future Projects Future Projects (OPF) Year C.O.D. El Cajón 750 MW 2007 La Yesca 746 MW 2011 La Parota 900 MW 2012 La Villita (New units) 400 MW 2014 Infiernillo (Up grade) 200 MW 2014 CFE will continue in the future to install 500 MW / year on average 33
Wind Potential in Mexico La Rumorosa Estimated Potential: > 7000 MW San Quintín Guerrero Negro (1500-2500) MW * López Mateos Potential Sites Mazatlán (1000-1500) MW (800-1500) MW Zacatecas Hidalgo Veracruz (1000-1500) MW La Venta (1000-2000) MW Cozumel Cancún Installed Projects (2.12 MW) La Venta II Wind projects under construction (83.3 MW) * CFE has site studies and wind data Istmo de Tehuantepec (2000-3000) MW * 34
Wind Energy - Future Projects Period 2005 2014 Project Contract Type Capacity range per unit (MW) Total Capacity (MW) Year LA VENTA II OPF 0.85 83.3 2006 LA VENTA III IPP 0.85-2.5 99 2008 LA VENTA IV IPP 0.85-2.5 99 2009 LA VENTA V IPP 0.85-2.5 99 2010 LA VENTA VI IPP 0.85-2.5 99 2011 LA VENTA VII IPP 0.85-2.5 99 2012 TOTAL 578.3 This program in subject to increase in the future, however it will not make a large contribution to the national demand. 35
Geothermal Energy Mexico has more than 1400 thermal potential sites distributed in 27 states of the country specially in the neovolcanic axis which possesses a geothermal potential estimated in 1000 MW. Mexico has the third largest geothermal installed capacity in the world. Presently, the effective installed capacity is: Mexicali, Baja California 720 MW Los Azufres CD. Hidalgo, Mich. 195 MW Humeros, Puebla 35 MW Tres Vírgenes, Mulegé, Baja California Sur 10 MW The geothermal projects scheduled to commence commercial operation in year 2010 are: Cerro Prieto V in Mexicali, Baja California: 100 MW. Humeros in Puebla: 25 MW. 36
Solar Energy This technology is in development stage having very limited potential to satisfy the national demand. There are several small photovoltaic installations throughout the country. CFE is planning the installation of an integrated solarcombined cycle system (ISCCS); the project will be tendered in 2006 under the Financed Public Works Scheme (OPF) it will consist of a 560 MW combined cycle plant, integrated with a 25 30 MW parabolic solar field. The site will be located in the northwestern part of the country, near the border with the USA. 37
Biomass Is a new technology in its early development stage, there are a few installations at the experimental level, there are also some small capacity power generating stations using the gases generated by garbage confinements. It is a very limited technology to satisfy the Mexican energy demand. 38
Conclusions.- 39
Conclusions 1. To fulfill the demand in the next ten years, it is necessary to install 21,529 MW of new capacity. 2. The planning model is based on the availability of fuels, costs and time of constructions, and results in a growth based mainly in Natural Gas. 3. The POISE seeks an energy diversity. The 2006-2015 POISE, will try to restrict the use of natural gas to no more than 50% of the generation capacity, giving a major boost to energetic diversity. 4. The Capacity requirements program hasn t committed 5,700 MW to any particular technology. Based on future trends and developments, and fuel prices, it is expected that many of these, will be based on natural gas, although some of this capacity could be coal, nuclear, hydroelectric and wind. 40
Conclusions 5. The Ministry of Energy is encouraging the use of renewable energies to a great scale through a program called PERGE (Programa de Energía Renovable a Gran Escala) designed by SENER and The World Bank. 6. It will be convenient for the Mexican electric system and companies that conform the system, to establish collaboration agreements with other countries with greater advances in renewable energy. 41
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