Mexico. Wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und Energiemarkt in Mexiko. Erwin Feldhaus Director CEE

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1 Mexico Wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und Energiemarkt in Mexiko Erwin Feldhaus Director CEE

2 Land and people Young and dynamic

3 Mexico is a big country Mexico covers 2 million km 2, making it the 14 th largest country in surface area in the world. = 3 X / 8 X 3

4 A country of young people 112 million inhabitants 51% The median age of the population is Age 26 48% 4

5 Demographics are on our side Mexico s demographic bonus Mexico s population pyramid (2030)* Male Female China s population pyramid (2030)* 112 million inhabitants with a median age of million people in the labor force. According to forecasts, there will be more than 60 million people in the labor force by Male Female Source: US Census Bureau: ; INEGI, 2011; Population Projections for Mexico , CONAPO. *Population (in millions) by age group.

6 Economy Strong and growing

7 Industrial redistribution Jan- Mar 12 20% US Imports Market Share Canada China Germany Japan Mexico 15% 10% 12,5% 5% 0% Source: USDOC

8 Exports as a Growth Driver US Non-petrol Imports Market share (January-August 2010) 22,87% 12,73% 12,68% 7,63% 5,29% China Mexico Canada Japan Germany Source: USDOC World Bank

9 Integration is the Future The Picture

10 Trade and legal frameworks North America: the competitiveness agenda X: 84.2% M: 51.1% Europe: seize opportunities and deepen FTAs X: 5.3% M: 12.6% X: 3.3% M: 30.8% Latin America: promote regional integration X: 6.6% M: 4.6% Asia: selective and ad hoc approach Presence in forae: ( WTO, APEC, OECD, LAIA)

11 Map of Mexico s Advanced Manufacturing Tijuana Tecate Mexicali Nogales Hermosillo Ciudad Juarez Chihuahua Automotive Autoparts Aerospace Electric-Electronics Monclova Nuevo Laredo Los Mochis Culiacán Torreón Saltillo Ramos Arizpe Reynosa Monterrey Matamoros Zacatecas Aguascalientes Leon Guadalajara Silao San Luis Potosi Tampico Querétaro Ciudad Sahagún Estado de México Morelos Tlaxcala Puebla

12 Mexico is well positioned South COUNTRY Brazil Russia India China Mexico Indonesia Turkey Korea B R I C M I S T 1. Macroeconomic environment 2. Open economy 3. Economic complexity 4. Total manufacturing cost 5. Domestic market 6. Demography 7. Workforce quality 8. Engineering graduates (per capita) 9. Democratic system 10. Human Development Index Equal or above Mexico Below Mexico, but close Clearly under Mexico Source: 1. Macroeconomic Environment: WEF The Global Competitiveness Report , Macroeconomic Environment/ 2. Open Economy: Doing Business 2012, Ease of Doing Business/ 3. Economic Sophistication: The Atlas of Economic Complexity, Harvard University/ 4. Total Manufacturing Cost, Manufacturing Outsourcing Cost Index, Alix Partners/ 5. Domestic Market: WEF The Global Competitiveness Report , Domestic Market Size Index/ 6. Demographic Bonus: UN World Population Prospects. The 2010 Revision. Forecast of total dependency rate in 2025 (population <15 & 65+ years) (15-64)/ 7. Labor availability and quality of the DFI Benchmark, Automotive OEM, Skills, attitudes and productivity/ 8. Engineering Graduates (per capita): UNESCO Institute for Statistics, International Monetary Fund. Engineering, manufacturing and construction graduates per capita 2009/ 9. Democratic System: The Economist, Democracy Index / 10. Human Development Index: UN, Human Development Index.

13 Renewable Energy Market overview

14 Renewable Energy installed capacity 2012 = 14,501 MW = 23% of total Target is to increase to 35% in 2024 Sources: Energy Regulatory Commission CRE, Federal Electricity Commission CFE.

15 Renewable Energy - Potential Energy Potential (MW) Installed capacity (MW) Hydro 53,000 11,707 Wind 40,268 1,289 Geothermal 40, Biomass 83, , Solar 24,300* 37** Source: Ministry of Energy (SENER). February *Estimated potential to ** Includes medium and small PV projects, mainly focused on rural and residential

16 RE Power stations in plants open and/or under construction RE Power Stations States with highest number of projects Oaxaca = wind power Veracruz = bioenergy Source: CFE / CRE / Companies websites * Projects in operation and under construction includes only hydroelectric <= 30 MW of installed capacity.

17 Total FDI in RE ( ) Year Projects Investment [million USD *] Jobs* Main 2012 investors 4 were 1,441 Spain, USA, , Denmark, 4 France and 947 Israel , , Total 22 7,343 3,496 Source: FDI Markets *Data estimated from investment announcements.

18 Source: AMDEE / Companies websites. Leading Companies

19 Associations and research centers Associations Center for Renewable Energy Studies Centro de Estudios de las Energías Renovables (CEENER) Advanced Materials Research Center Center for Research and Advanced Studies, IPN. Centro de Investigación y de Estudios Avanzados, IPN. Mexican Center for Renewable Energy Centro Mexicano de Energías Renovables Energy Research Center, UNAM Centro de Investigación en Energía UNAM Electrical Research Institute Center for Research and Technology in Production of Biodiesel Centro de Investigación y Tecnología en Producción de Biodiesel

20 Solar Industry Manufacturing Companies Mexico is the main supplier of PV modules in Latin America, with an annual production capacity exceeding 312 MW (just above Brazil, Chile and Argentina). Company Production capacity (annual) Location Jabil 45 MW Chihuahua, Chihuahua Kyocera 150 MW Tijuana, Baja California Sanyo 75 MW Monterrey, Nuevo Leon ERDM Solar 30 MW San Andres Tuxtla. Veracruz Solartec 12.5 Irapuato, Guanajuato Total MW Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance / Electronic Media

21 PV attractiveness for country High Increasing PV opportunity >5kWh/m 2 Low Country investment attractiveness High Source: EPIA

22 Government policies Framework

23 Interconnection agreements The interconnection agreements allow the independent producers and small producers to sell their electricity to the CFE through a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA). Because the renewable power generation is not continuous, under de self-sufficiency scheme the producer can accumulate energy surpluses in the energy bank of CFE up to a maximum period of 12 months to be used or sold to a 85% of the Total Cost in the Short Term (CTCP, Costo Total de Corto Plazo). Interconnection agreement Source: CRE.

24 Framework elements Power generation Energy Bank Preferential rate for energy transmission Fiscal incentives Accelerated depreciation on fixed assets Zero tariff Funds Fund for Energy Transition and the Sustainable Use of Energy SENER-Conacyt Sectoral Energy Sustainability Fund

25 Framework elements Programs Integral Energy Services (Servicios Integrales de Energía or SIE) for Small Rural Communities in Mexico Program to Promote the Use of Solar Water Heaters in Mexico (Programa para la Promoción de Calentadores Solares de Agua en México or PROCALSOL) Creditors NAFINSA (Nacional Financiera) BANOBRAS (Banco Nacional de Obras y Servicios Públicos, S.N.C.) BANCOMEXT (Banco Nacional de Comercio Exterior) FIDE (Fideicomiso para el Ahorro de Energía Eléctrica) FIRCO (Fideicomiso de Riesgo Compartido)

26 Bilateral Business Summit Series 122

27 Where to get information