Solar Market Potential in Mexico

Transcription

1 Solar Market Potential in Mexico c Gauss Energia Alberto Valdés Joscha Rosenbusch President Mexican Solar Association Principal Advisor GIZ Programa Energia Solar a Gran Escala en México (DKTI-Solar) Intersolar Europe 2016, Export forum: Energy Solutions Made in Germany Munich, June 23, 2016 Page 1

2 Program Energía Solar a Gran Escala en México German Climate and Technology Initiative - DKTI Objective: Improve the technological, financial and organisational conditions for large scale solar energy applications in Mexico Areas of work: Market introduction of innovative solar technologies Solar financing capacities Mecanisms for policy coordination between public and private sector Präsentationstitel hier eintragen Page 2

3 Program Energía Solar a Gran Escala en México German Climate and Technology Initiative - DKTI On behalf of: BMZ - Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development 11/ /2019 Public Private PV Power Plants Solar Process Heat Financing Academia and Innovation Page 3

4 Power sector clean generation goals Clean generation Fossil fuel based plant with CCS Hydro Nuclear 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 50% Any renewable energy source (wind, solar, bioenergy, others) clean conventional Efficient cogeneration (definition by CRE) Präsentationstitel hier eintragen Page 4

5 Fuente: KPMG, Mexico Energy Conference The new model of the electricity market

6 Reform implementation timeline (selection) Electricity Industry Law Creation of CENACE Clean energy certificates (CEL) guidelines 5% clean energy oblication by st PRODESEN Principles power market framework Energy transition law & legal unbundling CFE Pase 1 day ahead and real time market Results 1st long term auction General Provisions Distributed Generation Medium Term Auction Rules Real operation day ahead, real time an CEL market 08/14 10/14 03/15 05/15 09/15 12/15 01/16 03/16 07/16 10/ Präsentationstitel hier eintragen Page 6

7 Incentives & support for Solar Accelerated depreciation Clean Energy Certificates (CELs) 100% of investments in machinery and equipment used for renewable energy generation. Include fixed assets, expenses and deferred charges. Min 5 years operation Mandate to generate 5% of overall consumption by clean energy in All market participants that consume electricity in the system must comply with the mandate and can use CELs to meet obligations. Solar is a sources eligible for CELs.(1CEL=1MWh) Auctions Regulated Austions for Electricity suppliers (eg CFE) for clean energy, capaity and CELs Net Metering Billing credit for excess electricity generated by RE facilities of retail electricity consumer Sustainable Energy Fund R&D Renewable energy and energy efficiency. Projects and calls managed by SENER and CONACYT other Non-discriminatory network access; reation of wholesale markets, Improved information provision; simplified approval processes Source: GIZ, BNEF, Ley del Impuesto sobre la Renta, SENER, Ley Federal de Derechos Page 7

8 Avarage end user electricity prices Subventioned prices for Households and Agriculture below Industry, Business and Service-sector Average price higher than in the USA Household Business Industry Services Agriculture Source: CFE Page 8

9 US$/MWh US$/Wp Photovoltaic prices drop LEVELIZED COST ELECTRICITY FOR PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS COST PER WATT PV MODULE 359 1,8 1, ,5 84 1,1 0,9 0,7 0,6 0, Año Año Fuente: Bloomberg

10 Large Scale Solar Power Market opportunities Spot market Merchant solar projects: selling electricity and clean energy certificates (CELs) on the spot. Bilateral contracts Medium- to long-term PPA contracts with large consumers or qualified suppliers. Auctions 15-year energy and 20-year CEL PPA contract with CFE. Depending on the technology, 15-year capacity contract may be applicable Präsentationstitel hier eintragen Page 10

11 Corporate PPA 2.4GW clean energy PPAs with corporates 2009 increase: wind Uncertainty by energy reform: 2015 Almost 1GW projects to be commissioned until 2018 Industrials waiting for price development Partner shy away from signing long term PPA Consumer to comply with 5% clean energy by 2018 : significant cost of non compliance Total clean energy capacity installed by technology (MW) and commissioning date ( ) Page Wind Biomass & Waste Small hydro Geothermal Solar Source: CRE, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 275

12 Long Term Auction 15-year contracts on offer Bids in $/MW Firm capacity, able to generate at the system s 100 most-critical hours Projects sign a contract to have a given amount of capacity available at a determined zone and dispatch electricity to the spot market when required. Capacity Energy 15-year contracts on offer Bids in $/MWh Only clean energy technologies to participate in the auction (both baseload and intermittent) If the source is intermittent, hourly benchmarks references (factores de ajuste horário) will be applied to determine final revenue Non-intermittent source pricing is much simpler with contracts paying at a straight $/MWh rate. Clean energy certificates 20-year contracts on offer Bids in $/CEL Clean energy-only Projects may be located in any part of the grid system Präsentationstitel hier eintragen Page 12

13 Renewables distribution on 1 st Auction Renewable power on first auction in Mexico Wind 15% Renewable Energy on first Auction in Mexico Wind 26% Solar 85% Total TWh Solar 74%

14 Enel Sunpower Acciona Energy JinkoSolar Investment Alarde Envision & Vive Energía Aldesa Recurrent Energy Thermion Energy Alter Enersun Enel Sunpower Acciona Energy JinkoSolar Investment Alarde Envision & Vive Energía Aldesa Recurrent Energy Thermion Energy Alter Enersun Mexico s 1 st power auction winners by energy (TWh), CELs (m) and price ($/MWh) Energy (TWh) CEL(m) Price $/MWh A total of 5.4TWh of power and 5.4m CELs was contracted The auction s average contract price was $47.6/MWh The lowest bid of $35.5/MWh came from a solar project being developed by Enel Green Power Energy (TWh) CEL(m) Price $/MWh Source: CENACE, Bloomberg New Energy Finance USD1 = MXN Page 14

15 Potential market for DG Market Size for DG With a penetration level of 5% renewable energies gets installed capacity of 3 GW Instalaciones potenciales Usuarios DAC Instalaciones Comercios Instalaciones Industriales Fuente: CFE

16 source: CFE-CRE PV Distributed Generation - Market Evolution MW installed per year 55,7 31,7 16,1 6,7 2,7 85, Solar 41 MW 2028 Solar 1,2 GW MW source: ANES / CFE-CRE la Generación de Electricidad en México, al 30 de junio del Page 16

17 Guideline Solar Distributed Generation (02/2016) DG Products Definition of DG Compensation model Tarif regulation Business model CEL obligation Source: GIZ, PwC Page 17

18 Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH DKTI - Programa de Energía Solar a Gran Escala en México (DKTI Solar) Joscha Rosenbusch Asesor Principal / Programmkomponentenleiter T +52 (55) M +52 (1) (55) E [email protected] I Source: IRENA Global Atlas Page 18