JEDI Capital Expenditure Update U.S. Offshore Wind Market and Supply Chain Workshop Presented by Aaron Smith National Renewable Energy Laboratory Brent Cooper Ocean & Coastal Consultants, Inc. 2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. D I S P U T E S & I N V E S T I G AT I O N S E C O N O M I C S F I N A N C I A L A D V I S O RY M A N A G E M E N T C O N S U LT I N G
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Table of Contents» 1» Intro to JEDI 2» Component Based Cost Updates 2
Introduction to JEDI The Jobs And Economic Development (JEDI) Analysis Toolset Currently public Utility-Scale Wind Offshore Wind Natural Gas Coal Geothermal Ethanol Solar (CSP, PV) Marine Hydrokinetic (MHK) Transmission JEDI is used by industry, government, academics, advocates, consultants, and others. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/jedi/download.html In process Water Biopower Small Wind 3
Introduction to JEDI The Offshore Wind JEDI Model was developed as part of the Navigant Consortium FOA awards. Annual Market Assessment Developed and demonstrated the NREL Offshore Wind JEDI Model Estimated gross national economic impact associated with various scenarios varying deployment levels and regional content Offshore Wind Supply Chain Study Characterized the existing workforce in adjacent industries Estimated employment from one-time investment in new ports and manufacturing infrastructure Fact Sheets Exploring Regional Impacts Mid-Atlantic, South East, Gulf Coast, and Great Lakes Available at http://www.nrel.gov/publications/ Photo from Harland and Wolff Heavy Industry, NREL/PIX20575 4
Photo from istock/4363756 Photo credit: Walt Musial / NREL PIX #26994 Photo from Gamesa, NREL/PIX16001 Introduction to JEDI JEDI analyzes economic development impacts at multiple levels. 1. On-site labor and professional services 2. Equipment production and supply chain Photo from Harland and Wolff Heavy Industry, NREL/PIX20575 3. Induced economic activity (household purchases due to injection of income) 5
Introduction to JEDI JEDI requires definition of CapEx and OpEx, as well as assumptions about the origin of labor, materials and services. User-Defined Inputs Calculated Results Initial CapEx + Ongoing Operations Expenditures % Local Expenditures % State or Regional Expenditures % National or International Expenditures Initial Investment + Multiplier Effect Economic leakage The Navigant Consortium defined and estimated CapEx and OpEx for representative offshore wind project in order to provide users with default values 6
Reported CapEx (2012$/kW) Introduction to JEDI The model is prepopulated with default information; however, users have the option to enter project-specific information (highly recommended). JEDI input sheet with 2011 default values CapEx Trends for Global Offshore Wind Projects 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 2013 range spans >$3,000/kW 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 Operational Projects Projects Under Construction 7
Introduction to JEDI Scenario Baseline Assumptions Project Descriptive Data Project Location (i.e., nearest state) DE/MD Year of Construction 2018 Total Project Size - Nameplate Capacity (MW) 500 MW Number of Projects (included in Total Project Size) 1 Turbine Size (KW) 3MW Distance to Port 100 nm Distance to Point of Cable Landfall 25 nm Number of offshore substations 2 Money Value - Current or Constant (Dollar Year) 2011 Initial cost inputs were developed from bottom-up cost estimates for individual project elements, based on the expertise, experience, and opinions of the collective Navigant Consortium Core regional/domestic content estimates are based on what might be reasonable for initial projects assuming current levels of workforce specialization and capabilities, not necessarily what state policy stipulates in order to satisfy an explicit cost/benefit analysis 8
Average Water Depth (meters) Introduction to JEDI 2011 and 2014 Variations 100 90 80 70 12-MW UMaine Demonstration Project (ME) - Proposed 2-MW WindFloat (Portugal) Project Descriptive Data 2011 2014 Update Water Depth 25m 20m Foundation Type Jacket Monopile Export Cable Technology HVDC HVAC Number of Export Cables 1 2 60 50 40 30 1,000-MW Deepwater Wind Energy Center (MA/RI) - Proposed 2011 JEDI Baseline 400-MW Global Tech (Germany) 170-MW BARD Offshore 1 20 10 2014 JEDI Baseline 288-MW Dan Tysk (Germany) 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Distance from Shore (miles) Operational Projects Projects Under Construction US Advanced Stage Projects JEDI Model Defaults 9
Table of Contents 1» Intro to JEDI» 2» Component Based Cost Updates 10
Photo from Talisman Energy NREL/PIX17885 JEDI Cost Comparison Turbines» Offshore wind turbine supply agreement (TSA) prices have been largely flat since 2011 Range from $1,600/kW to $2,400/kW Some evidence that Tier 1 suppliers are able to extract premium prices Advanced technologies (i.e., larger machine or rating and/or rotor diameter) also command a premium) Order size matters» TSAs generally include supply of rotor, nacelle, and tower Delivered to the staging port Eith a 5-year warranty» Turbine OEMs are offering 15 18 year Management Operations and Maintenance Agreement (MOMA) options Provides price certainty to investors 11
JEDI Cost Comparison Foundation and Substructure» Material» Labor and Equipment» Transportation» Installation 12
JEDI Cost Comparison Electrical System» Array Cables» (2) Offshore Transformer Stations» 2011: Converter Station (1) HVDC Cable to Shore» 2014: (2) HVAC Cables to Shore 13
JEDI Cost Comparison Vessels» Foundation And Substructure Strategy» Turbine Strategy» Array Cable Strategy» Export Cable Strategy» Marine Transportation Strategy 14
JEDI Cost Comparison Soft Costs (Development and Financial)» Development Permitting Engineering (project and interconnection facility design) Legal Services Site Characterization Public Relations» Decommissioning bonding» Financial costs Due diligence Interest during construction Reserve accounts (maintenance, debt service): Bank fees» Sales Tax on Purchased Goods 15
CAPEX (2011 USD/kW) JEDI Cost Comparison Results $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 Soft Costs (development and financial) Transportation, Assembly, & Installation Electric Infrastructure Substructure & Foundation (labor) Substructure & Foundation (materials) Turbine» 2014 results driven by adjusted site characteristics and technology» Improved cost data in 2014 reduces uncertainty» 2014 CapEx is ~6% lower ($5,830/kW vs. $6,210/kW) 21% reduction in electric Infrastructure (NO HVDC) 22% reduction in Substructure & Foundation cost (monopile vs. jacket) 18% increase in Transportation, Assembly, and Installation Costs $- 2011 JEDI Defaults 2014 JEDI Defaults 16
Key C O N T A C T S Aaron Smith Lead Analyst NREL Offshore Wind Energy Program Direct: 303.384.7191 aaron.smith@nrel.gov Brent D. Cooper, P.E. Project Engineer & Diver Ocean & Coastal Consultants, Inc., a COWI Company Direct: 843.375.2013 brco@ocean-coastal.com 2010 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy. 17