Hydrogen Infrastructure

Transcription

1 Hydrogen Infrastructure Marc W. Melaina, PhD Hydrogen Technologies and Systems Center National Renewable Energy Laboratory Presented at the Houston Advanced Research Center The Woodlands, TX - August 19 th, 2008

2 Presentation Overview What will it take to kick-start the hydrogen economy? Transition Scenarios Study (ORNL) National Academies Study Lessons Learned Report Where will the hydrogen come from (ultimately)? Many production options Renewable resource potential in Texas NREL s Wind Hydrogen Project Low-carbon hydrogen for Texas refineries? 2

3 If the vehicles are ready, what will it take to put the fuel infrastructure in place? The 2004 National Academies Study recommended: 1. DOE should map out and evaluate a transition plan 2. DOE s policy analysis should be strengthened with response to the hydrogen economy, and the role of government in supporting and facilitating industry investments Honda Clarity: 200 leased over 3 yrs Chevy Equinox: 100 in Fall

4 Near-term Hydrogen Infrastructure Challenge Gasoline is currently supplied to some 250 million light duty vehicles through approximately 160,000 gasoline stations Early hydrogen vehicles will be expensive, but even early adopters will not purchase vehicles that cannot be refueled Analysis suggests that some 5,000 to 10,000 hydrogen stations would be needed to satisfy early adopter markets nationwide These early stations would probably be underutilized as the national fleet of vehicles ramps up over time Difficult to establish near-term business case, even though potential for long-term benefits is clear 4

5 Analysis of the Transition to Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles & the Potential Hydrogen Energy Infrastructure Requirements Published by Oak Ridge Nat. Lab With contributions by: Directed Technologies, Incorporated National Renewable Energy Laboratory Life Cycle Associates TIAX, LLC. Excerpts describing the report: Scenarios took into consideration the thinking of the automobile manufacturers, energy companies, industrial hydrogen suppliers, and others from the private sector. The final scenarios attempt to reflect the collective judgment of the participants in these meetings. (but finding are not endorsed by participants) 5

6 Scenario Modeling Approach: Assume some future demand, then model infrastructure requirements Lagged HEV intro rates shown for reference Greene et al., 2008 FCV Intro Rates Scenario 1: 2 M FCVs by 2025 Scenario 2: 5 M FCVs by 2025 Scenario 3: 10 M FCVs by

7 Estimating Consumer Demand Potential for Hydrogen Vehicles Demand Criteria Households with 2 or more vehicles Hybrid vehicle registrations Education Household income Commute distance State incentives Clean City coalitions ZEV mandates Melendez and Milbrandt,

8 Focused Deployment of Refueling Stations: Urban Center Concept or Lighthouse Strategy Greene et al., 2008 Three Phases of Infrastructure Rollout Initial Introduction ( ) L.A. and N.Y.C., 60 stations Targeted Regional Growth ( ) 10 Cities, ~1300 stations Inter-Regional Expansion ( ) 20 cities, stations 8

9 Hydrogen Station Requirements on a City-by-City Basis These are idealized introduction rates, based primarily on city size In reality, urban areas with more aggressive policies and stronger consumer demand will be early adopters Critical mass is required to justify targeting by auto and fuel companies Greene et al.,

10 Placement of 284 Stations along Interstates: 50 & 100 miles apart Melendez and Milbrandt,

11 Early Hydrogen Stations for East Texas Station Coverage 143 Stations 9.5 stations per million people 15.5 M people in east Texas region Proximity to Stations 36% within 3 miles 65% within 5 miles 90% within 10 miles Melendez and Milbrandt,

12 Resulting Demand Potential in Houston Methodology was carried out at the census tract level Melendez and Milbrandt, 2006b 12

13 Fuel Cell Vehicle Costs Scenarios: 2-10 million FCVs sold by 2025 Greene et al.,

14 Policy Support is Needed (Subsidies, tax incentives) Upfront costs facing automakers and fuel providers are a showstopper without government support However, after these transition costs are overcome, overall system is more efficient and less costly than gasoline system Government Support Required During Transition ( ) Cumulative costs in $billions (2004, undiscounted) Ranges reflect different types of policy support Fuel Vehicle Total Scenario 1: Scenario 2: Scenario 3: Vehicles generally require more support than fuel After 2025, policy support is taken away and market growth is sustained in all cases. These are very optimistic estimates, based on ideal conditions. 14

15 Similar Transition Costs from the Recent National Academies Report NAS,

16 Lessons Learned Workshop Sacramento, CA, April 4 th 2008 High Priority Action Items for Hydrogen Refueling Infrastructure Station Design, Siting and Availability R&D on station design, footprint Co-production systems Need for Flagship stations Policy and Regulatory Issues Long-term national plan; Lighthouse Insurance and Liability Need for insurance pool Consumer Focus Same or better experience as gasoline Incentives Create stable market opportunities 16

17 Where would the hydrogen come from? 17

18 Hydrogen Production Options 3 Main Low-Carbon Sources Fossil Fuels with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Nuclear Hydrogen Renewable Hydrogen Wind Solar Biomass Important Observation: The early transition to hydrogen is a critical near-term challenge, but the full potential of hydrogen will only be realized if technologies are brought to market in coming decades that provide sustainable, low-carbon, domestic hydrogen. 18

19 Long-Term Carbon Reductions from FCVs Thomas, NHA

20 Renewable Hydrogen Potential Far Exceeds Projected Vehicle Fuel Demand Milbrandt and Mann,

21 Wind-Hydrogen Potential in Texas Texas 12 B gal gasoline & 5 B gal diesel used in B kg hydrogen production potential from wind in Texas Hydrogen would be used about twice as efficiently States to North have similar windhydrogen potential, but far less demand 21

22 Solar-Hydrogen Potential in Texas Texas 12 B gal gasoline & 5 B gal diesel used in 2006 ~70 B kg hydrogen production potential from solar 22

23 Texas has Largest Renewable Hydrogen Potential of any State Wind-Hydrogen Potential: Top Ten States Solar-Hydrogen Potential: Top Ten States South Dakota Montana Texas North Dakota Kansas Wyoming Nebraska Minnesota Oklahoma Iowa 27 Texas Alaska New Mexico Montana California Arizona Nevada Colorado Wyoming Kansas Hydrogen Potential (Billons kg per year) Hydrogen Potential (Billons kg per year) Texas: 12 B gallons gasoline and 5 B gallons diesel in

24 The NREL/Excel Wind-to-Hydrogen Project 24

25 Low-Carbon Hydrogen Could Reduce the Carbon Intensity of Gasoline Low Carbon Fuel Standard Proposed as a regulatory framework to reduce GHGs in the transportation sector Would require reduction in the carbon intensity (kg C/MJ) of transportation fuels over time (e.g., 10% by 2020) Large-scale hydrogen production in Texas? Transportation and storage costs are large for hydrogen Costs are reduced if hydrogen is used onsite Utilization onsite using existing refinery storage capacity Potential to displace NG-H2 in refineries with wind-h2 Similar to use of bio-oil in conventional refineries 25

26 Questions? 26

27 References Levene, Mann, Margolis and Milbrandt, An Analysis of Hydrogen Production from Renewable Electricity Sources. NREL Report NREL/CP Melaina, McQueen and Brinch, Refueling Infrastructure for Alternative Fuel Vehicles: Lessons Learned for Hydrogen. Workshop Proceedings. NREL/BK Melendez and Milbrandt, Regional Consumer Hydrogen Demand and Optimal Hydrogen Refueling Station Siting. NREL/TP , April

28 Extra Slides 28

29 Renewable Hydrogen Resource Assumptions Electrolysis system conversion rate 52.5 kwh/kg hydrogen Solar Hydrogen Resource Land area basis: 40 km 2 grid Non-tracking flat plate PV collector, tilted at latitude Maximum of 10% of land area used for PV system 30% of which is covered with PV panels 10% PV system conversion efficiency Exclusions: National Parks, Fish and Wildlife land, sensitive federal lands (recreation areas, etc.), conservation areas, water & wetlands, airports & airfields 3 km buffer around all above areas Wind Hydrogen Resource Includes only Class 3 or better wind Assuming class 3 becomes economic with future turbine improvements 5 MW of wind turbines per km 2 Same exclusions as solar Excludes areas with slope >20% Wind turbine capacity factors: 29

30 NAS Study Relies on Fossil Hydrogen with Carbon Capture and Storage NAS,