NTA and China s Public Policy Ling Li Qiulin Chen Yu Jiang 21-6-11 Honolulu
China: the Era of Great Change 1949-1978 Planed economy 1978-28 Market economy Low economic growth, high savings High economic growth High fertility and low mortality rates National based social security system Low fertility and low mortality rates Marketlized social security system
Backgroud of the evulution The transition of social development 23- Scientific development and "homonious society Emphasize justice and equality More government expenditure to the public service Reconstruct the social security system
Issue 1: Public vs Private
The evolution of China's healthcare system In 1999, China began to reform its healthcare system Before reform After reform Urban: Comprehensive Social Security for the employees (and their relatives) Rural: Cooperated Medical Service Urban: Rural Employee's health insurance(1998-) Citizen s social insurance(27-) New Cooperated Medical Insurance(23-)
NTA and Health Age Profile of Health Consumption,1995 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 Health,urban Health,rural Health,National
The Change of J Curve China's J Curve,1998, Smoothed RMB 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 National Male Female 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 3 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 6 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 9 Age
The Change of J Curve China's J Curve,23, smoothed 25 National Urban Rural 2 15 RMB 1 5 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 3 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 6 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 9 Age
Health: public and private Public Private 8 9 7 8 6 7 5 4 3 2 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 China urban 1995 China rural 1995 $2, $18, $16, $14, $12, $1, $8, $6, $4, $2, $ 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 The USA 2 Thailand 24
Comparison Comparison, China 1995 and 22,per capita.1 Ratio.8.6.4.2 Public Health 1995y Public Health 22y. 8 16 24 32 4 48 56 64 72 8 88 Age (Normalized by average Labor Income of age 3-49)
Comparison Comparison, China 1995 and 22,per capita.5 Ratio.4.3.2.1 Private Health 1995y Private Health 22y. 8 16 24 32 4 48 56 64 72 8 88 Age (Normalized by average Labor Income of age 3-49)
Comparison Comparison, China 1995 and 22,per capita Ratio.5.4.3.2.1. -.1 -.2 9 18 27 36 45 54 63 72 81 9 Health Inflow 1995 Health Inflow 22 Health Outflow 1995 Health Outflow 22 (Normalized by average Labor Income of age 3-49) Age
Consumption between health and education Public Consumption,Other Public Consumption,He alth Public Consumption,Education 16 14 Public Consumption,China,pe r capita,22 12 Public Consumption,China,pe r capita,1995 1 8 6 Yuan 8 6 Yuan 4 2 4 2 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 7 77 84 8 16 24 32 4 48 56 64 72 8 88 Age Age
Public Education, Comparison China 1995 & 22, per capita Ratio Age (Normalized by average Labor Income of age 3-49)
Private Education, Comparison China 1995 & 22, per capita.12.1.8 Ratio.6.4.2. 4 8 12 16 2 24 28 32 36 4 44 48 52 56 6 64 68 72 76 8 84 88 Private Education 1995y Private Education 22y Age (Normalized by average Labor Income of age 3-49)
Private Education, Comparison between urban and rural Education, Rural and Urban,China,percapita,22 3 25 2 Yuan 15 1 5-5 6 12 18 24 3 36 42 48 54 6 66 72 78 84 9+ Age Urban Education,unsmoothed Rural Education,unsmoothed Urban Education,smoothed Rural Education, smoothed
Intra HH Transfer: Education Comparison China 1995 and 22,per capita.2.15.1 Ratio.5. -.5 4 8 12 16 2 24 28 32 36 4 44 48 52 56 6 64 68 72 76 8 84 88 -.1 Education Inflow 1995 Education Inflow 22 Education Outflow 1995 Education Outflow 22 Age
Intra HH Transfer: Health Comparison China 1995 and 22,per capita.5.4.3.2.1 Ratio. -.1 -.2 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 4 45 5 55 6 65 7 75 8 85 9+ Health Inflow 1995 Health Inflow 22 Health Outflow 1995 Health Outflow 22 Age
Public Transfer- Comparison China 1995 and 22, per capita.25.2.15.1.5. Ratio -.5 -.1 4 8 12 16 2 24 28 32 36 4 44 48 52 56 6 64 68 72 76 8 84 88 -.15 -.2 Public transfer,net 1995y Public transfer,net 22y Age
The future of China s healthcare? Hot debate Subsidy the demand side or the supply side Social Insurance System or National Healthcare Service (NHS) system
The future of China s healthcare? The new healthcare system increase rather than control the cost 25 2 15 1 5-4 岁 5-14 岁 15-24 岁 25-34 岁 35-44 岁 45-54 岁 55-64 岁 65 岁 及 以 上 N o Insu ra n ce G overn em t em p loye e's H ea lth Insu ra n ce C oo p e ra te d M ed ica lse rvic e Priva te Insu ra n ce U rb a n Em p loye e's H ea lth Insu ra n ce C om p re hen sive so cia linsu ra n ce O the r
Issue 2: Gender
Background Women liberation along with the revolution during the 2 th century Unequally competition in a export-oriented and labor-intensive economy 2 million migrated from the rural to urban for work Weaken of social security system Oversupply of cheap labor: Labor super market
Labor Income Preliminary result Labor Income Urban, 22, per capita
Labor Income Preliminary result Labor Income Rural, 22, per capita
consumption Preliminary result Private consumption urban, 22, per capita
consumption Preliminary result Private consumption urban, 22, per capita
consumption Preliminary result Private consumption rural, 22, per capita
consumption Preliminary result Private consumption rural, 22, per capita
Next step Transfers between genders Estimate the transfer between the urban and rural by the immigration
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