Fact and figures about intra-eu labour mobility

Transcription

1 Fact and figures about intra-eu labour mobility Laurent Aujean Employment analysis Unit DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion Leuven, 13 October 2014 Social Europe

2 Outline 1. Main figures on intra-eu mobility 2. Recent trends in mobility flows 3. Labour market situation of intra-eu movers 4. A few burning questions

3 EU citizens working in other EU Member States Around 8 million econ. active EU citizens living in another MS in 2013 (3.3% of the labour force) Sharp increase in mobility since 2004 But remains below number of econ. active third-country nationals (10.6 millions or 4.3%) and annual mobility rate ten times lower than in the USA

4 Distribution by country of residence (2013) Residents for 10 years and more Residents for less than 10 years Source: Eurostat, LFS Intra-EU movers being economically active.

5 Source: Eurostat, LFS In % of labour force, recent mobility is limited for most destination countries Recent (< 10 years) intra-eu movers (econ. active) in % of labour force of country of residence (2013)

6 Distribution by country of origin (2013) Abroad for 10 years and more Abroad for less than 10 years Source: Eurostat, LFS Intra-EU movers being economically active.

7 Source: Eurostat, LFS In % of labour force, mobility to other EU countries is large for certain countries Recent (< 10 years) intra-eu movers (econ. active) in % of labour force of country of origin (2013)

8 Recent trends in mobility flows

9 Recent changes in EU and non-eu labour migration Economically active EU and non-eu citizens who have been living for less than five years in an EU country in 2008 and 2013 (in million) Source: Eurostat, LFS 2013.

10 Changing patterns in terms of origin country Economically active EU foreigners, residing for < 5 years in an EU country, by group of origin countries (in,1000) Source: Eurostat, LFS 2013.

11 and countries of destination Distribution of economically active intra-eu movers (established for less than 5 years in 2008 and 2013) by destination country and citizenship group, as % of the total Destination All EU-28 movers EU-10 EU-2 Southern EU-15 Other EU-15 country UK DE IT (1) : 2 1 BE ES FR 6 6 (1) AT (2) IE Others Source: Eurostat, LFS 2013.

12 Recent intra-eu movers are young but 'less than before' Distribution of economically active intra-eu movers (established for less than 5 years in 2008 and 2013) by age group, as % of the total Source: Eurostat, LFS 2013.

13 Growing share of tertiary graduates among intra-eu movers Distribution of economically active intra-eu movers (established for less than 5 years in 2008 and 2013) by level of education and citizenship groups, as % of the total

14 Labour market situation of intra-eu movers

15 Main patterns (1) Intra-EU movers are more likely to be of 'working-age' (78.0%) than 'nationals' (65.7%) Among the working-age population, intra-eu movers are: less likely to be inactive (22.3% versus 28.0%), more likely to be in employment (68.0% versus 64.5%), but also more likely to be unemployed (9.7% versus 7.4%). Variations across origin and destination countries Crisis impact relatively similar for nationals and intra-eu movers while much stronger for third-country nationals

16 EU mobile citizens more likely to be in employment.but not in all countries Labour market status of working-age (15-64) intra-eu movers and nationals (2013), by country of residence

17 Impact of the crisis much stronger for non-eu citizens Changes in employment rate of working-age (15-64) nationals, mobile EU and non-eu citizens ( ), by country of residence (in pps)

18 Main patterns (2) Share of employees versus self-employed influenced by labour market access Specificities of sectoral and occupational distribution across groups of EU mobile workers High over-qualification rate among Eastern mobile workers

19 Source: Eurostat, LFS. Link between share of self-employed and openess of labour market Share of self-employed among citizens from 2004 and 2007 accession countries being in employment, by group of citizenship in 2008 and 2013

20 Various sectoral distributions across groups Distribution of employment by sector, among recent movers (<10 years) by group of citizenship - and compared to nationals, 2013 NACE sectors Nationals Other EU-15 South EU-15 EU-10 EU-2 Non-EU Manufacturing Wholesale and retail trade Health and social work Education Public administration and defence Construction Professional, scientific and technical Accomodation and food Administrative and support service Activities of households as employers Source: Eurostat, LFS. Notes: Cells in orange indicate the three top sectors for each group while cells in bold indicate an overrepresentation (i.e. a share in total employment at least 1.5 times > than the average among nationals). Only 10 NACE sectors presented representing around 70-80% of total employment for all groups.

21 Various occupations across groups Distribution of employment by occupations, among recent movers (<10 years) by group of citizenship - and compared to nationals, 2013

22 Over-qualification among intra-eu movers Over-qualification rate among recently established (< 5 years) foreigners by group of nationality (% of highly educated working in low or medium- skilled occupations) Source: Eurostat, LFS. Highly educated= ISCED 5-6; Low and medium-skilled occupations= ISCO 4-8.

23 Limitations of the analysis Household survey, sample size, short-term mobility, under-estimation Other forms of mobility not included such as crossborder, seasonal and posted workers Mobility to EFTA countries not included (but can be) Based on 'nationality' : return flows not accounted in overall mobility, intra-eu mobility of non-eu citizens

24 A few burning questions: Brain drain for origin countries? Welfare tourism / over-use of social security? Increased mobility from EU-2? Adjustment through mobility in the Euro area? Surge in migration to non-eu countries?

25 1. 'Brain drain' for origin countries? Risk exists given large outflow rate for some countries For Eastern and Central EU MS: no over-representation of highly educated among recent intra- EU movers compared to origin country's labour force and large increase in the share of highly educated since 2000 Role of remittances Mobility is often temporary and can result in better skills (including language) but return is not always successfull Overall, no strong signs of 'brain drain' but there may be 'brain waste' and problems in some specific sectors (healthcare)

26 Source: Eurostat EU-LFS Large over-representation of highly educated among movers from EU-15 not from EU8 and EU2 Percentage of highly educated workers among recent (<10 years) economically active mobile EU citizens and among labour force in countries of origin, by group of countries, 2013

27 Various situations across Central and Eastern MS Percentage of highly educated workers among recent (<10 years) economically active mobile EU citizens and among labour force in countries of origin, 2013 Source: Eurostat EU-LFS

28 Growing percentage of tertiary graduates Source : Eurostat, Education statistics

29 Remittances can partly offset negative impact of worker outflows from Central and Eastern European member countries Personal remittances, received (% of GDP), average Source: World Bank

30 2. Welfare tourism / over-use of social security? No significant relation between generosity of welfare systems and migration inflows Flows more influenced by empl. opportunities, family and social networks, language, labour market institutions, ect. Decline in share of EU mobile citizens being inactive Mobile citizens being unemployed lost their job in the country of destination not before coming Receipt rate of benefits lower among EU movers though they vary across types of benefits When controlling for characteristics, similar or lower receipt rate

31 3. Increased mobility from EU-2 countries? Largest wave of mobility from EU-2 was rather before 2009 Since then: changing distribution in terms of destination countries (DE, UK, IT, BE, AT instead of mainly ES before) Increasing level of education No apparent increase in inactivity Regarding trends since end of trans. arrgts (1/1/2014): Not yet official figures Preliminary indications for Germany and the UK No confirmation of fears of massive flows

32 4. Adjustment through mobility in the Area? Strong divergence across Euro countries raises the question of the adjustment role of labour mobility Acc. to 2014 OECD paper: 'In contrast to the pre-crisis situation and the findings of previous empirical studies, there is tentative evidence that the migration response to the crisis has been considerable in Europe, in contrast to the US' but most of the adjustment through migration to/from non- /non-eu(rather than intra-euro area) Since 2009 : mobility from South to North countries did increase but still far from playing a large role (ex.of Germany) Discrepancy between intra-eu movers and unemployed in origin countries in terms of skills (education level) Temporary or permanent nature of mobility will depend from economic prospects in South area in the future

33 Diverging unemployment trends in the Euro Area (EA) Unemployment rate

34 Mobility from South to Germany Sharp increase in number of South EU workers since 2010 ( or +28%) But much lower than increase in Eastern workers: +263,000 EU-10 (+142%) and 121,000 EU-2 (+188%) Acceleration in the last year : compared to +25,000 on average in previous years ( ) But minor compared to number of unemployed in South EU MS (yearly : 0.3%) South EU MS citizens employed in Germany (social security data), in thousands and ratio to the unemployed in origin countries Changes Changes Ratio to the unemployed in in,000 in % in,000 in % orig.countries (in %) Southern EU MS Italy Portugal Spain Greece Source : BafA (Statistik May 2014). Mini-jobs included but no civil servants and self-employed. Values in the month of March. Ratio is the yearly increase (March ) in the number of South Europe citizens employed in Germany divided by the number of unemployed in origin countries (in 2013Q1).

35 Surge in migration to non-eu countries? Increase in emigration to non-eu countries (from 1.15 M in 2009 to 1.3 M in 2012) remains below immigration from non-eu (1.7 M) 2012 emigrants to non-eu were from: ES (21%), UK (16%), FR (15%), DE (10%), PL (7%), EL (5%), IT (4%), NL (4%), IE (3%) Largest increase over : ES, PL, IT and FR (in % : IE, CY, PT) Spanish case (return migration to non-eu countries) versus Portugal (emigration of 'nationals') Top destination countries* : Australia, USA, China, Morocco, Ecuador, India, Brazil, Canada, Bolivia and Switzerland Using data of destination countries (USA, AUS, CAN, BRA) : sharp increase in % terms over last few years in migration from EU but overall low in absolute terms Data on indvidual country of next residence available for only 15 out of the 28 EU MS (i.e. without FR, DE, PL, EL)

36 Sources of information EU Employment and Social situation Quarterly review 'Mobility supplement' June 2014 (and June 2013) Employment and Social Developments in Europe Review 2011 (chapter 6 on intra-eu mobility) and 2013 (chapter 5 on Convergence and divergence in EMU) European Commission communications on: Free movement of EU citizens (Nov. 2013) Functioning of transitional arrangements (Nov.2011) Social Situation Monitor Note on Access of mobile EU citizens to social protection (Feb. 2014) GHK-ICF study on Impact of non-active EU mobile citizens on social security (Oct. 2013) Forthcoming report by Network of expert on intra-eu mobility social security coordination and free movement of workers: '2014 Annual report on labour mobility'