The Future of Information Technology

The Future of Information Technology Dr. Matthias Kaiserswerth Director IBM Zurich Research Laboratory VP Global Systems Management and Compliance, IBM Research www.zurich.ibm.com 2002 IBM Corporation

Agenda Zurich Research Laboratory Brief introduction of IBM Research Predicting the future IBM s tools Nanotechnology preparing the future of IT Supercomputing and innovation for society Digital communities and virtual worlds 2

IBM Research The Sun Never Sets at IBM Research Almaden 1955 Watson 1961 Zurich 1956 Beijing 1995 Tokyo 1982 Austin 1995 Haifa 1972 Delhi 1998 3

IBM Zurich Research Lab Lab population ~ 320 Persons Regular employees Pre-Docs Post-Docs 240 50 30 >30 different nationalities Collaboration with external partners University projects Industrial projects Government programs 30 30 30 4

Predicting the Future I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943 Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons. Popular Mechanics, 1949 There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. Ken Olsen, founder of DEC, 1977 640K ought to be enough for anybody. Bill Gates, 1981 Prediction is difficult, especially about the future Yogi Berra 6

IBM s Tools for Predicting Future Trends Uncovering new opportunities and insights that will shape business and society and predicting technology trends Global Innovation Outlook Global Technology Outlook 7

The Future of Moore s Law After years of acceleration, CMOS Technology will return to historic improvement rates Innovation, not just scaling, will provide the performance improvements 1000 100 Historical Historical SOI Modeled +35-40% per node +15-20% per node 10 Performance (A.U.) +20% per node 1 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 9

Beyond the 25-nm Generation: Post-CMOS Nanowire devices Carbon nanotubes Spin devices Molecular electronics 10

Bringing Printing to the Nanoscale Using directed self-assembly to print particles as small as 60 nm Precise and efficient arrangement of nanoparticles Large-scale rapid printing of nanostructures may advance development of biosensors for efficient point-of-care diagnosis tools, nanolenses for future optoelectronic components, fabrication of nanowires for future chips 11

Nanoprinting From traditional gravure to nanoparticle printing 12

Single-Molecule Logic Switching Leading to molecular computers Switching based on chemical reaction inside molecule Two hydrogen molecules move within cavity in molecule No disruption of shape of molecule, allowing coupling of molecules Possibility to switch adjacent molecule Potential modular molecular building block for complex structures, e.g. logic gates 13

Molecular Switching Process Upon injection of a voltage pulse, the two hydrogen atoms at the core of the molecule change position and switch the molecule between on and off. On Off 14

What is a Supercomputer? A supercomputer is a computer that led the world in terms of processing capacity, particularly speed of calculation, at the time of its introduction (definition from wikipedia). A supercomputer is a computer that give the best ratio sustained processing capacity/power consumption for a given set of (scientific/ technical/ business) applications, at the time of its introduction. 16

Performance Projection: Top 500 28th List, November 2006 www.top500.org 17

Supercomputing Applications Engineering Crash Tests Weather Forecasts Materials Simulations & Design Biological and Life Sciences Environment & Energy Finance Risk Prediction Manufacturing Real Time Data Processing 18

Project Checkmate Project Checkmate seeks to model mutations and interactions between avian flu and human influenza to determine strains that could cause an epidemic: Before the epidemic occurs In time to produce vaccine to avoid the epidemic Checkmate is a collaboration between IBM and the Scripps Institute. 19

Blue Brain Project On June 6, 2005, IBM and Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne in Switzerland (EPFL) announced a major joint research initiative nicknamed the Blue Brain Project to take brain research to a new level. EPFL's Brain Mind Institute will use an IBM Blue Gene supercomputer to create a complex digital 3D model of the brain. The first comprehensive attempt to reverseengineer the mammalian brain, in order to understand brain function and dysfunction through detailed simulations. 20

Blue Brain Project Roadmap 2005 2006 2007 Phase I: Neocortical Column 10,000 neurons 30M synapses 4 rack BG/L (2TB) SGI Prism Extreme 100M-200M neurons 2008 brain-wide data molecular detail Phase II/III: Rat/Mouse Brain memory 200TB BG/P 2-5,000,000,000 neurons 2011 Phase IV: Cat/Primate Brain memory 2-5PB BG/Q? 100,000,000,000 (100 billion) neurons 2015 Phase V: Human Brain memory 100PB BG/Z? 21

The Evolution of Communities Collaboration is a defining characteristic of many types of communities and has been critical to the evolution of humanity Community 0.0 (geographically co-located) Community 1.0 (web interface) Community 2.0 (social computing) Software development RCS SourceForge SubVersion Rational Jazz Professional developmentblackboards Conference Virtual conference Community of Practice Communities 23 Collaboration In-person Tele-conf Video Conf E-meetings IM Jam Education Classroom Distance E-learning Peer-to-peer learning Virtual Univ Marketplace Bricks & Mortar Online Shopping Amazon ebay Games Board Video Computer Internet MMOGs Increased Digitization

Digital Communities The emergence of digital communities is enabling new forms of global interaction between individuals, affecting how they work, socialize, and play. We are entering the age of networked individualism. Wellman, 2006 Historically, people living in proximity have formed communities, providing wellknown advantages: a sense of belonging, social ties, collaboration, knowledge and resource sharing Technology has always impacted human communities, increasing their scope, expanding their capabilities and organizational complexity An exploding number of global digital communities are emerging that leverage the Web and new tools for collaboration and interaction, and which break the tie to geography and create new social norms Digital communities will become vital to Globally Integrated Enterprises, enabling rapid distributed product development, innovation, and interaction between employees, partners, and customers 24

Digital Communities Functional Landscape Work / Create / Innovate / Learn Business Value Commerce 25 Play Social Value Socialize

Global InnovationJam An Invitation to Collaborate What is InnovationJam? A large-scale on-line discussion forum in which clients, partners and IBM employees discussed potential innovations made possible at the intersection of emerging, new technologies and major business/societal shifts What is special about InnovationJam? First IBM Jam to include IBMers, our clients, business partners, academia and even family members What is a Jam? A Collaborative Innovation Tool Developed by IBM to accelerate innovation both idea discovery and implementation Structured as a multiple-day, web-based forum in which participants engage as equals to brainstorm and propose new ideas Why? To create breakthrough new marketplace opportunities and partnerships for IBM and its clients 26

Innovation Jam 2006 Outcomes Smart Healthcare Payment Systems Simplified Business Engines Real-time Translation Services Intelligent Utility Networks Digital Me (personal content service) Branchless Banking for the Masses Integrated Mass Transit Information System Electronic Health Record System Big Green Innovations (new business unit) 3D Internet (building a seamless, standards-based 3D Internet) 27

Sam Palmisano Town Hall 3D Jam at Almaden VUC Round Table Innovation Island Complex 3D Models Greater IBM Alumni Hursley Research Meeting in a Molecule Business Center 28

According to technology research firm Gartner, current trends suggest that 80 percent of active Internet users and fortune 500 companies will participate in Second Life or some competing virtual world by the end of 2011. Technology Review, August 2007 29