Auto Insurance in the Era of Autonomous Vehicles 24 th Annual Insurance Issues Conference
Automobile Insurance in the Era of Autonomous Vehicles KPMG U.S. recently published two documents on Automobile insurance in the era of autonomous vehicles Video: Driverless vehicles This presentation is based on the publications from KPMG LLP (U.S.). 1
Agenda Alignment for Mass Change 8 elements for transformation 4 phases to a new normal What Now? Timing Potential impact on insurance A new insurance landscape Future State Implications for Insurers Call to action 2
Alignment for Mass Change Eight Key Elements for Transformation Mobility Services Integrity of Technology Legal Responsibility Infrastructure Availability Interactions between elements are dynamic Advances in one area may act as catalyst for progress in others 3
Alignment for Mass Change Integrity of Technology Sensors Foundational Cameras technologies already exist and will continue to $ GPS $ $ strengthen and integrate $ $ $ Pervasive Sensors 4
Alignment for Mass Change Capability Accessibility Google 100% autonomous prototype driven car (Launched) Mobileye Driverless auto pilot (2016) BMW Adaptive cruise control (Launched) Audi Adaptive cruise control (Launched) Traditional market participants and new entrants are developing autonomous vehicles or technology behind them Mercedes - Benz Traffic jam assist (Launched) Cadillac Super Cruise (2017) Tesla Driverless auto pilot (Beta Launched) Ford Adaptive cruise control (Launched) Volvo Traffic jam assistant (Launched) Source: NHTSA, KPMG LLP (U.S.) s Self-Driving Cars: Are We Ready?, Automotive News, New York Daily News, Reuters, Bloomberg and Company websites. 5
Alignment for Mass Change Infrastructure Availability Existing Infrastructure Technology initially embedded in vehicles Vehicles can use existing roads Smart Infrastructure Roads, signs, signals communicate with cars Result in integrated driving environment Autonomous vehicles could increase highway capacity by up to 500% (1) Source: (1) Platooning With IVC-Enabled Autonomous Vehicles: Strategies to Mitigate Communication Delay, Improving Safety and Traffic Flow. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS VOL. 13, NO. 1, MARCH 2012. Pedro Fernandes, Member, IEEE, and Urbano Nunes, Senior Member, IEEE 6
Alignment for Mass Change Regulatory Permission As of earlier this year, 21 states (1) have passed or introduced bills related to self-driving vehicles. California, Michigan and Nevada are likely to set standards adopted by others. WA ND OR ID SD MN WI MI NY NH MA CT NV IL NJ DC (PASSED) MD CA AZ CO OK MO TN GA SC NC TX LA FL HI 2015 Current Status Passed Under Consideration Withdrawn / Failed Note: (1) Most recent publicly available sources as of May 2015. Source: Stanford University s Center for Internet and Society Automated Driving: Legislative and Regulatory Action and individual state legislature websites 7
Alignment for Mass Change Regulatory Permission National Highway Traffic Safety Administration released a report that states: new possibilities for improving highway safety, increasing environmental benefits, expanding mobility, and creating new economic opportunities on the threshold of a period of dramatic change in the vehicles we drive Meanwhile in Ontario Government pledged roughly $3 million in funding to Ontario Centres of Excellence Connected Vehicle/Automated Vehicle Program 8
Alignment for Mass Change Legal Responsibility The Key Players Manufacturers and insurers need legal strategy Initial Lawsuits Lawsuits and rulings will provide tort clarity Adapting to Change Legal implications of autonomous vehicles are developing and evolving Insurers have opportunity to define policy 9
Alignment for Mass Change Consumer Adoption Shorter commute time Ability to multi-task Freedom to turn selfdriving mode off Each driver has unique value proposition, and autonomous vehicles offer broad appeal. Focusing on improving consumer s quality of life will likely result in traction 10
Alignment for Mass Change Mobility Services New York City Washington D. C. Boston Households with 2+ Vehicles Car Sharing Standard option for urban drivers Philadelphia Chicago Dallas Houston Ride Hailing Further convenience and savings Los Angeles San Antonio U.S.A. Average Autonomous Vehicles Declined vehicle ownership 0% 20% 40% 60% 11
Alignment for Mass Change Data Management Data Management Data Security Information Privacy Data Analytics A tsunami of data will roll in Autonomous driving will face serious security threats Individual privacy may become harder to achieve The ability to gather, aggregate and harness the data will be critical 12
Agenda Alignment for Mass Change 8 elements for transformation What Now? Timing 4 phases to a new normal Potential impact on insurance A new insurance landscape Future State Implications for Insurers Call to action 13
Timing Four Phases of Transformation Training Wheels Now - 2017 First Gear 2017-2020 Acceleration 2020-2025 Full Speed 2025-2040 Introduction to autonomous vehicles High-tech companies express interest Partial driver substitution technology More consumers experience technology Potential mandate for V2V communications Fully autonomous all-speed vehicles V2V capabilities likely embedded in new vehicles Increase in scale drives down costs Broad-based transformation begins New vehicles have autonomous capabilities A new normal realized by 2040 No crystal ball to predict future We envision four potential incremental changes to transformation over next 25 years, with foundation laid for a new normal within a decade 14
Timing Insurance Industry View on Timeline 84% 74% 23% 68% 10% Not ready for autonomous vehicles Developed a strategic plan Little or no understanding of autonomous vehicles No budget allocated for preparation for autonomous vehicles Significant impact on business after 2025 Source: KPMG LLP (U.S.) s 2015 Automobile Insurance in the Era of Autonomous Vehicles Survey Results. 15
Agenda Alignment for Mass Change 8 elements for transformation What Now? Timing 4 phases to a new normal Potential impact on insurance Future State Implications for Insurers A new insurance landscape Call to action 16
Implications for Insurers Potential Impact to Different Coverages Auto insurance Claim frequency will fall, ultimately leading to lower premiums Life and annuities Mortality tables will be impacted road traffic accidents leading cause of death for ages 15 to 34 Health insurance Need to modify processes for auto accident related health claims Workers compensation 6% of claims costs arise from auto accidents Source: KPMG LLP (U.S.) actuarial analysis estimates based on data from the U.S., and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2010) 17
Implications for Insurers Actuarial Analysis Insurance Market Size Insurance Product Mix Size of Car Stock Severity Trends Autonomous Vehicle Technology Accident Frequency Actuarial Analysis Autonomous Vehicle Adoption Rates 18
Implications for Insurers Accident Frequency and Severity Accident Frequency per Vehicle Severity per Accident 0.045 35,000 Incidents per vehicle 0.040 0.035 0.030 0.025 0.020 0.015 0.010 0.005 Cost per accident ($) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000-10,000 Average incidents per vehicle Average severity Source: KPMG LLP (U.S.) actuarial analysis estimates based on data from the U.S. 19
Implications for Insurers Expected Loss Expected Loss (1) Cost per vehicle ($) 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% Percent of 2013 industry aggregate loss Combining frequency and severity assumptions indicates a drop of roughly 50% in expected insured loss per vehicle Average loss cost per vehicle Percent of 2013 industry aggregate loss Note: (1) Based on total auto insurance market. Source: KPMG LLP (U.S.) actuarial analysis estimates based on data from the U.S. 20
Implications for Insurers Industry Loss Costs Safer vehicles could result in auto insurance industry losses decreasing by 40% by 2040, with commercial and product liability accounting for larger portion of loss pie Expected total loss ($billions) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Expected Loss Allocated to Personal Auto, Commercial Auto and Products Liability 60% decrease in personal auto losses Personal auto Commercial auto Products liability Source: KPMG LLP (U.S.) actuarial analysis estimates based on data from the U.S. 21
Agenda Alignment for Mass Change 8 elements for transformation 4 phases to a new normal What Now? Timing Potential impact on insurance Future State Implications for Insurers A new insurance landscape Call to action 22
Future State A New Insurance Landscape 42% 39% Will result in emergence of niche writers 32% Will result in new providers of insurance 29% Will have no material impact on insurance industry Will increase industry consolidation 26% Source: KPMG LLP (U.S.) s 2015 Automobile Insurance in the Era of Autonomous Vehicles Survey Results Will shift mix of personal and commercial auto business 10% Other Multiple responses allowed Over the next 10 years, many survey respondents expect emergence of niche writers and new providers of insurance Roughly one-third of executives believe this new technology will have no material impact on the industry 23
Agenda Alignment for Mass Change 8 elements for transformation What Now? Timing 4 phases to a new normal Potential impact on insurance A new insurance landscape Future State Implications for Insurers Call to action 24
What Now? Call to Action Understand your company s exposure to the change Evaluate your business strategy Align with other insurers and form partnerships CALLTO ACTION Identify andmonitor leading indicators Educate and train your people Prepare your operations Understand cost structures 25
Related Reports from KPMG Self-driving cars: The next revolution Me, my car, my life Self-driving cars: Are we ready? Source: KPMG LLP (U.S.) 26
Joe Schneider Managing Director (312) 665-1006 jeschneider@kpmg.com Houston Cheng Consulting Actuary (416) 777-8364 hhcheng@kpmg.ca Survey: https://www.kpmg.com/us/en/issuesandinsights/articlespublications/documents/automobile-insurance-in-the-era-of-autonomous-vehicles-survey-results-june-2015.pdf White Paper: https://www.kpmg.com/us/en/issuesandinsights/articlespublications/documents/marketplace-change.pdf
2015 KPMG LLP, a Canadian limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and cutting through complexity are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International.