3/10/2015. HLDI data providers have 85% share of U.S. auto insurance market

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1 Stopping the Crash Before it Happens: Collision Avoidance Technology & More Evaluations of Collision Avoidance Systems Using Insurance Data Lifesavers 2015 Chicago, IL March 15, 2015 Matthew Moore, Vice President, HLDI The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, founded in 1959, is an independent, nonprofit, scientific, and educational organization dedicated to reducing the losses deaths, injuries, and property damage from crashes on the nation s roads. The Highway Loss Data Institute, founded d in 1972, shares and supports this mission i through h scientific studies of insurance data representing the human and economic losses resulting from the ownership and operation of different types of vehicles and by publishing insurance loss results by vehicle make and model. Both organizations are wholly supported by auto insurers. HLDI data providers have 85% share of U.S. auto insurance market AAA Northern 21 st Century California, Foremost(Iowa Farm Bureau) Nevada and Utah Alfa Alliance GEICO Farmers AIG Agency Allstate GMAC Florida Farm Bureau Allstate American Family The Hartford GEICO American Family American National Family High Point The Hartford Amica Amica Kentucky Kemper Farm Bureau Preferred ANPAC Auto Club Group Liberty Mutual Kentucky Farm Bureau Auto Club Group Automobile Insurers Bureau of Mass. MetLife Liberty Mutual Automobile Insurers Bureau of Mass. Chubb Nationwide MetLife Chubb COUNTRY PEMCO National General COUNTRY CSAA Progressive Nationwide Erie Erie Rockingham New Jersey Manufacturers Farm Bureau Financial Services (Iowa Farm Esurance Bureau) Safeco PEMCO Farmers Farm Bureau Financial Services Secura Insurance Plymouth Rock Assurance Progressive Rockingham Safeco SECURA Sentry State Farm Tennessee Farmers Travelers USAA 1

2 U.S. Auto Insurance 101 Collision coverage Covers damage to your vehicle if you are at fault Collision coverage or Collision coverage at fault not at fault/other property damage covered Property damage liability coverage Covers damage you cause to other people s vehicles and property Property damage liability or Property damage liability at fault not at fault/other property damage covered 2

3 Comprehensive coverage Covers theft and damage for reasons other than crashes Tort and no-fault states WA OR CA NV ID MT WY UT CO AZ NM ND NH VT MN ME SD WI MI NY IA MA NE PA IL IN OH NJ RI MO WV CT KS DE KY VA MD OK TN NC DC AR SC MS AL GA LA TX Tort states no-fault states AK FL HI Medical payment coverage Covers injuries to you and your passengers if you are at fault in states with traditional tort systems Medical Payment at-fault driver/passengers not at-fault driver/passengers injuries covered 3

4 Bodily injury liability coverage Covers injuries you cause to people in other vehicles in states with traditional tort systems Bodily Injury Liability at-fault driver/passengers not at-fault driver/passengers injuries covered Personal injury protection coverage Covers injuries up to a specified amount, regardless of who is at fault, in states with no-fault systems Personal Injury Protection Personal Injury Protection at-fault driver/passengers not at-fault driver/passengers injuries covered Insurance measures Exposure Expressed in insured vehicle years One insured vehicle year represents 1 vehicle insured for 1 year or 2 vehicles insured for 6 months Claim frequency Calculated by dividing claims by exposure Expressed as the number of claims per selected number of insured vehicle years (exposure) Claim severity Represents the average cost per claim Calculated by dividing dollars paid for all claims by the claim count Overall losses Represents the average cost per insured vehicle (year) Calculated by dividing total dollars paid for claims by exposure 4

5 Covariates 1. Demographic variables A. rated driver age B. rated driver gender C. rated driver marital status D. rated driver risk 2. Geographic variables A. garaging state B. garaging zip code C. registered vehicle density (vehicles per square mile) 3. Policy variables A. deductibles B. limits C. effective / terminate dates Forward collision warning Changes in physical damage claim frequency for front crash prevention systems 2 low speed warning only warning with autobrake PDL collision -3 City Safety Honda Accord Mercedes Acura Mercedes Subaru 5

6 Changes in injury claim frequency for front crash prevention systems 8 4 low speed warning only warning with autobrake -4-8 City Safety Honda Accord bodily injury liability City Safety (includes LDW) MedPay PIP Mercedes Acura Mercedes Subaru (includes LDW) Honda Mercedes Acura Mercedes Subaru Accord warning only warning with autobrake Front crash prevention systems Change in collision claim severity $1,500 low speed warning only warning with autobrake $1,000 $500 $0 -$500 -$1,000 City Safety Honda Accord Mercedes Acura Mercedes Subaru Front crash prevention systems Change in collision overall losses $100 low speed warning only warning with autobrake $50 $0 -$50 -$100 City Safety Honda Accord Mercedes Acura Mercedes Subaru 6

7 Adaptive headlights Adaptive headlights Change in claim frequency 12% 8% 4% -4% -8% -12% -16% PDL collision -2 Acura Mazda Mercedes Adaptive headlights Change in claim frequency 1 Bodily injury liability -1-2 Acura Mazda Mercedes MedPay and PIP (1 st party injuries) MedPay PIP Acura Mazda Mercedes 7

8 Adaptive headlights Change in collision claim severity $1,000 $500 $0 -$500 collision -$1,000 Acura Mazda Mercedes Adaptive headlights Change in collision overall losses $100 $50 $0 -$50 collision -$100 Acura Mazda Mercedes Lane departure warning 8

9 Lane departure warning systems Change in claim frequency 4 3 PDL collision Buick (w/ Blindspot) Mercedes Subaru (with FCW/AEB) (w/ FCW/AEB) Honda (w/ FCW) Lane departure warning systems Change in claim frequency Bodily injury liability Buick Mercedes Subaru (w/ FCW/AEB) Honda (w/fcw) 8 MedPay and PIP (1 st party injuries) 4 MedPay PIP -4 Buick Mercedes (w/ Blindspot) Subaru (w/ FCW/AEB) (w/ FCW/AEB) Honda (w/ FCW) Fitment Rates of Vehicle Features in the U.S. Vehicle Fleet 9

10 New vehicle series with electronic stability control By model year standard optional not available Registered vehicles with electronic stability control By calendar year standard optional not available Registered vehicles with electronic stability control, actual and predicted By calendar year predicted actual

11 New vehicle series with front crash prevention By model year standard optional not available Registered vehicles with front crash prevention By calendar year standard optional not available Registered vehicles with front crash prevention, actual and predicted By calendar year predicted actual

12 Calendar year features reach 95% of registered vehicles with and without hypothetical mandate 2050 without mandate hypothetical 2015 mandate front crash prevention lane departure warning adaptive headlights blind spot warning rear camera rear parking sensors Vehicle registrations By calendar year 650, , ,000 optional and not available ESC standard ESC Linear (optional and not available ESC) Linear (standard ESC) 575, , , , Annual change in registration By ESC status % % % optional and not available ESC standard ESC 12

13 Dedicated to reducing deaths, injuries, and property damage on the highway 13