Science Fiction to Reality: The Future of Automobile Insurance and Transportation Technology

Transcription

1 Michael R. Nelson Kymberly Kochis October 13, 2015 Science Fiction to Reality: The Future of Automobile Insurance and Transportation Technology INSURANCE AND FINANCIAL SERVICES LITIGATION WEBINAR SERIES

2 Introduction Driverless cars may still seem like science fiction, but we are poised for radical change Technology will change the way we drive and commute This new technology will force the auto insurance industry to change (from underwriting to claims) Change will not occur overnight It will take years, not only for consumers to embrace new technology, but also for the technology to reach all price points Expected to take years from introduction to reach 25% market adoption Like any change, while new technology brings with it new risks, there are also opportunities for auto insurers 2

3 Collision Avoidance Systems The next stage of transportation technology will not be the autonomous vehicle, but enhanced collision avoidance systems (CAS) The term CAS typically refers to systems that use radar, laser and camera sensors to detect an imminent crash Each new model car is equipped with more automated features and more advanced crash avoidance technology 3

4 Autonomous Technologies Already Offered Standard: Anti-lock brakes Cruise control New features: Adaptive cruise control Parallel-park assist Automatic emergency braking Lane-keeping technology In vehicles this year: Single-lane highway autopilot Blind spot assists Forward collision warnings Coming soon: Highway autopilot with lane changing Traffic jam autopilot Autonomous valet parking Urban autopilot 4

5 Future Autonomous Technologies Human and animal detection Obstacle detection Auto-to-auto communications Advanced cruise control that includes steering 5

6 How Does Autonomous Technology Operate? Radar Video Infrared GPS Wifi LIDAR light detection and ranging 6

7 Detection Technology 7

8 Autonomous Technology Advantages Safety There have been 958,000 fatalities resulting from auto accidents since 1990 Decreases accidents caused by driver error, distracted driving (e.g., cell phones, entertainment systems) and driving under the influence Increase in road capacity Allows drivers to focus on other tasks Reduces energy consumption/increases fuel efficiency Reduces pollution Increased mobility for people unable or unwilling to drive Eliminates the need for parking 8

9 Autonomous Technology Risks We live in an age where it is possible to disable a car s brakes with an infected MP3 file inserted into a car s CD player Hacking Kidnapping 9 Data breach Technology failures could cause accidents (e.g., snow) Safety issues unintended consequences (e.g., airbags, aviation) Cost of new technology; cost to repair complex technology Ethical

10 Little Black Box High-end cars today contain 100 million or more lines of code Compare this to Facebook, which only has around 60 million lines of code NHTSA does not have the resources to scrutinize all of this code Technology advances generate a significant amount of data Presents issues with storage, analytics, security and authentication (integrity) 10

11 Volkswagen 11 According to news reports, 11 million vehicles were outfitted with software that gave false emission test results Software inserted into the electronic control module (ECM) of the vehicles Software used various inputs including position of the steering wheel, vehicle speed, duration of the engines operation and barometric pressure to recognize that emission testing was being done Special testing calibration of emissions control system would then be activated to increase effectiveness of system for emissions testing purposes Under normal road conditions, without this software, emissions control system produced 15 to 35 times greater nitrogen oxide than the allowable limit

12 Future: Autonomous Vehicles Google s driverless car gets a lot of press Claim it can reduce accidents by 90% Other auto and truck manufacturers are less vocal about their advancements, but they re happening quickly Volvo wants to eliminate all fatalities by

13 Current Status of Autonomous Vehicles Google s vehicles have driven more than 500,000 miles without any accidents caused by automation 13

14 Future: Infrastructure Over time, infrastructure is expected to play a role in automation E.g., roads that communicate with vehicles and control traffic 14

15 Impact on Auto Insurance Technology will change the way auto insurance is priced, the types of coverages offered and how auto insurance is purchased Pricing concerns Potential for reduced auto insurance premium Potential for lower frequency Potential for lower severity Potential for costly repairs Traditional underwriting methods become irrelevant (e.g., age, driving experience) 15

16 Impact on Auto Insurance Decrease in total losses Reparability issues Claims handling/training Privacy concerns Cyber terrorism Data breach Decrease in auto ownership No loss experience New policy wordings/forms New products open the door to potential new competition (new entrants in the market) New niche writers 16

17 Opportunities for Auto Insurers Insurance still necessary for fire, rain, flood, hail, theft, etc. Some states requiring insurance for the testing of autonomous vehicles 17

18 Opportunities for Auto Insurers New coverages Technology malfunctions Product liability New products Increased usage-based insurance Ride sharing Pay per use Uber Collaboration with new partners Auto manufacturers Tech companies 18

19 Legal Implications As the car itself is making more driving decisions, who is responsible when an accident occurs? Who is responsible for accidents? Car owner Car manufacturer Computer/technology manufacturer/developer Dealership/mechanic New law Tort liability Manufacturer s liability Adoption of a no-fault scheme? Strict liability? 19

20 Regulation Examples of issues that will need to be addressed by regulation: Who should regulate? What kind of vehicles should be allowed on the road? Who should be allowed to operate them? How should safety be tested? 20 New driver s license requirements/certifications Legal and regulatory issues could impede the initial adoption of autonomous vehicles (e.g., Google) Numerous states have already passed or introduced bills relating to autonomous vehicles Developing patchwork of different, and potentially conflicting, regulation by different states

21 Regulation In July 2015, new legislation was introduced that would require cars sold in the U.S. to meet higher standards of protection against computer attacks Numerous states have enacted legislation that allows the testing of autonomous vehicles on public roads Federal agencies have approved vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications systems that will allow cars to talk to each other so that they know where other vehicles are and can compensate for a driver s inability to make the right crash avoidance decisions because of blind spots or fast moving vehicles 21

22 Questions? Kymberly Kochis New York, NY Michael R. Nelson New York, NY