Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture and Natural Resources Management Projects Climate Change Team Environment Department Guidance Notes
Guidance Notes Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture and Natural Resources Management Projects This series presents eight guidance notes (GN1 - GN8) that provide lessons learned, best practices, recommendations, and useful resources for integrating climate risk management and adaptation to climate change in development projects, with a focus on the agriculture and natural resources management sectors. They are organized around a typical project cycle, starting from project identification, followed by project preparation, implementation, monitoring and evaluation. Each note focuses on specific technical, institutional, economic, or social aspects of adaptation.
Guidance Note 3 Assessing Climate Risk The objective of this guidance note is to provide information on climate risk assessment and introduce existing tools that can be used to screen for climate risk in project development. Specifically, this note aims to: (a) describe basic concepts and steps to carry out climate risk assessments; and (b) introduce the existing tools that support such assessments. It also suggests adaptation pathways for particular locations, and aims to assist development practitioners in selecting the most suitable tools and interpreting their results.
Contents A. Climate risk assessment concepts and tools....................... 5 What is a climate risk assessment?................................. 5 How should climate risks be addressed with respect to other key vulnerability drivers?................................. 5 How are climate risk assessments carried out and suitable adaptation options identified?........................................... 6 Main question/step......................................... 7 Approaches/tools........................................... 7 B. Using climate risk screening tools to assess climate risks on development projects..................................... 9 How can a climate risk screening tool help?........................... 9 What climate risk screening and adaptation tools are available?............. 10 How are the right tool(s) for a specific project chosen?................... 13 Table 1: Properties and uses of climate and adaptation decision-aiding tools.... 14 Table 2: Sensitivity/scale, ease of use and data requirements of screening tools... 15 Should one or more climate risk screening and adaptation tools be used?...... 16 How is a choice made regarding possible recommended adaptation measures?.. 16 Resources............................................... 18 Climate Screening Tools...................................... 18 Readings................................................ 18 Experts................................................. 19 Glossary................................................ 20
A. Climate risk assessment concepts and tools What is a climate risk assessment? In this note, the term climate risk assessment refers to any impact assessment* that considers the uncertainty associated with the consequences of climate variability or climate change in a specific area of interest. Since risk uncertainty is an integral component of any climate impact assessment, a risk-based approach represents good adaptation practice. The ultimate objective of a climate risk assessment is to help development practitioners identify whether and where proactive screening and adaptation to climate hazards may be required and to provide them with a first glance of possible location-specific adaptation options. Section A In most cases, a climate risk assessment should analyze climate risks resulting from current climate conditions and trends, as well as future, long-term climate projections. It should indicate how the climate has been changing in recent years and provide an approximation of what might happen in the years to come. In most developing countries, an adaptation deficit to current climate variability exists, which makes communities highly vulnerable to climate risks. Hence, an adaptation strategy must be robust against both current and likely future conditions (see also GN6 for lists of robust adaptation options), and not just concentrate on future projections, which, in most cases, fall short of predicting future impacts in detail. Flexible strategies and tools to manage current climate variability (i.e. seasonal weather forecasts and early warning systems as elaborated in Annex 1) are likely to lead to increased resilience to climate risks, including future ones, in order to generate better social, economic and environmental outcomes. How should climate risks be addressed with respect to other key vulnerability drivers? Although the objective of this note is to provide information on how to assess climate risks, it is important to first emphasize that climate risks are usually part of a wider set of non-climatic vulnerabilities affecting a community or region. Thus, the success of adaptation measures also requires addressing non-climatic issues and drivers of vulnerabilities at the local level. For example, a projected increase in drought in a specific region can put crop production from irrigated and rainfed agriculture at high risk. One possible adaptation strategy suggested by a climate risk assessment tool could be to promote more drought-tolerant crops. However, adaptive capacity at the local level might be constrained by factors such as poor institutions, inadequate infrastructure and difficult access to markets, so that implementing suggested adaptation measures may lack any substantial development benefit. Another possible * For words in italics, please see Glossary for definition. 5
Section A recommended measure could be to modernize irrigation systems to ensure availability of water during dry spells. However, this would only partially benefit people with limited access to the systems themselves because of, for example, the location of their fields at the far end of the distribution system, an inequitable distribution of water rights or illegal water withdrawing from the system by other users. Such factors may be more important in triggering vulnerability to drought than outdated water supply technology. Hence, in many cases vulnerability to climate change may be reduced more effectively and comprehensively by addressing non-climate factors than by implementing a technology or a management plan narrowly tailored to a particular climate change impact, which may have no substantial development benefits given the local context. In other words, reducing the adaptation deficit within vulnerable areas can, in some cases, be better achieved by addressing both climate and non-climate factors to improve current resilience to present and future climate variability. This implies that linking adaptation options to policies in various other sectors should be tackled in parallel. Adaptation activities should not be seen only through the lens of investments on the ground, but rather as a way to enhance overall local resilience and sustainable development. How are climate risk assessments carried out and suitable adaptation options identified? The following checklist attempts to: summarize the key steps, as well as possible approaches and available tools, when performing a climate risk assessment in the development of a project; and identify possible adaptation options that should be present in the agriculture and natural resource management (NRM) sectors. 6
Main question/step What is the study area (region, subregion, district, water basin, etc.) and the time horizon of interest (i.e. 2020, 2050, 2100)? Approaches/tools Expert opinion, project team s interests. Section A What is the nature and extent of current and future climate risks in the area of interest? What is the degree of uncertainty? What are the most important climate variables, which the agriculture and NRM sectors may be sensitive to in the study area (i.e. trends and long-term projections of annual and seasonal precipitation, water runoff, temperature, number of consecutive dry days, etc.)? What coping strategies are being used to deal with current climate variability? Are adjustments necessary in the face of longerterm changes? What is the extent and nature of the sector s sensitivity and vulnerability to changes in climate variables in the study area over the assessment period (i.e. impacts of increasing droughts, soil erosion or increased precipitation on crop yields production)? Application of user-friendly tools, such as the World Bank Climate Portal (see Annex 2), literature review, climate trend analysis (see Annex 3), application of GCMs and RCMs (see Annex 4). Literature review and expert opinion. See also use of seasonal climate forecasts and early warning systems summary note in GN6. Review of existing information on current local risks, vulnerability and coping strategies. Employment of user-friendly sector- and location-specific climate risk screening tools (i.e. ADAPT, see Annex 2), use of agronomic models, surface water runoff models, etc., coupled with climate projection models (see the Climate Change Portal under the agriculture tab for outputs from the IIASA- AEZ global model of future crop yield projections, and GN7 on economic analysis for a description of agronomic models). 7
Section A Main question/step What are the non-climate-related drivers of risk and vulnerability in the study area (i.e. land-use change, soil degradation, lack of basic rural infrastructure, lack of income diversification opportunities, distortion in agricultural subsidies, etc.)? What are the uncertainties involved? What is the importance of climate vulnerabilities vs. other vulnerabilities (i.e. market volatility, infrastructure and health)? Approaches/tools Field surveys, participatory rural appraisals, interviews with key informants and local communities (see GN2 on local communities and GN4 on institutional capacity and key informants). Special attention should be given to how these impacts affect the most vulnerable and disadvantaged populations, including women, children and marginalized groups. Also read the section below on how climate risks should be addressed with respect to other key vulnerability drivers? Given all of the above, what are suitable adaptation options in the study area? Suggested adaptation measures from climate risk screening tools (see below), outcomes of field survey outcomes, results from adaptation projects/studies in other areas, interviews with key informants and local communities, and expert opinions. Also read GN6 on selecting adaptation options. Given all the available options, which ones should be carried out first? Participatory approaches (see GN2), economic analysis (see GN7). Also read the section below on how to choose from all possible recommended adaptation measures? As indicated by the table above, some of the steps necessary in undertaking a climate risk assessment can be carried out with the support of climate risk screening tools, which are described in the next section. 8
B. Using climate risk screening tools to assess climate risks on development projects Using climate science research results to inform the decision-making process about which policies or specific measures are needed to tackle climate impacts is often a difficult, yet crucial undertaking. The successful integration of scientific information into decision making often depends on the use of flexible frameworks and tools that can provide comprehensible information to a wide range of users, allowing them to evaluate how to apply it to the design of a project or policy. Despite the uncertainty about expected risks posed by climatic change, climate risk screening and adaptation tools can still provide key information regarding vulnerabilities and risks faced by specific sectors or planned activities. In order to offer useful outcomes, these tools need to incorporate or be complemented by information on: climate trends, scenarios and projections; local resilience to climate shocks; and adaptive capacity. How can a climate risk screening tool help? Climate risk screening and/or adaptation tools are not decision-making tools, but rather a means to provide project developers, government officials and other professionals with decision-aiding inputs that can be utilized to carry out climate risk assessments and to initiate climate risk management and climate change adaptation processes. The use of screening tools can enhance the capacity of project developers to understand and integrate climate change factors into project planning, especially at the initial stages of project preparation. The most effective risk screening tools encourage users to focus on the conditions, assumptions and uncertainties underlying the results of climate models, to enable them to estimate the robustness of the information, make an informed assessment of current and future risks, and evaluate the appropriateness of response options. In particular, screening tools are generally able to provide information on some or all of the following aspects: Section B current climatic trends and/or projected future climate change in specific geographical areas; vulnerabilities of local natural systems and/or communities to current or projected climate-related impacts; climate-related risks on specific sectors or project activities; and possible adaptation options. 9
After a development project has been screened, outcomes from the tool s application should be sufficient for task managers to understand the project s sensitivity to the potential climate impact and make inferences about how to climate-proof their initiatives. If climate risks are or are expected to be high for a specific sector or project, the project leader should carefully revise options and project activities. This is greatly facilitated when the tool also provides suggestions on adaptation measures, and a summary of the outcomes from applying one or more of these tools should be included in project documents, such as the World Bank project appraisal documents (PADs). Section B What climate risk screening and adaptation tools are available? Several initiatives are currently under way to create decision-aiding tools across a wide variety of sectors and scales, and, for the most part, these tools are open source. Climate risk screening and adaptation tools can be broadly grouped under three different categories. Please note that this list of tools is not exhaustive and reflects those, which were available at the time of writing. 1. Data generators, databases and meta-data platforms that provide climateand vulnerability-related information. This category includes databases, which provide outputs of global circulation models and regional climate models, as well as vulnerability and adaptation-related data (e.g. National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) platform). Most of these tools are not very userfriendly and may require a strong background on climate modeling and/or atmospheric knowledge of regional issues for the appropriate contextualization of their results for decision support. 10
Examples (see also Tables 1 and 2): NAPA Platform, World Bank Climate Change Portal, SERVIR, Climate Change Explorer, ClimateWizard. 2. Computer-based decision-aiding tools are primarily intended to help development professionals identify climate-related risks and adaptation options based on inputs related to a specific project under preparation. They may also assist users in establishing priorities among different adaptation options as part of the decision-making process, i.e. by supporting the economic analysis. These tools are designed to incorporate various types of data, as well as inputs from various stakeholders, and typically include social vulnerability information. The advantage of these models is that they are generally userfriendly and allow development professionals to obtain useful information without relying too heavily on expert advice. Section B Examples (see also Tables 1 and 2): World Bank s ADAPT Screening Tool, CRiSTAL, UKCIP s Adaptation Wizard, GTZ/PIK Climate Check (forthcoming), CI:grasp (forthcoming), UNDP s Adaptation Learning Mechanism 11
Section B 3. Frameworks for adaptation/climate risk management processes refer to procedures developed to screen projects/programs for climate risks and/ or identify policy priorities. They are generally developed by donor or public agencies and are often tailored to the specific decision-making processes of the developer organization. Typically, these processes require expert advice, and tend to rely more on qualitative inputs while incorporating climate science information. Some of these frameworks include the economic analysis. On the whole, these processes require more application time when compared to computer-based decision tools but are generally more thorough in their analysis, providing recommendations for climate risk reduction and adaptation better tailored to the specific context. Examples (see also Tables 1 and 2): USAID s Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Manual, IDS s ORCHID Climate Risk Screening, Tearfund s Climate Change and Environmental Degradation Risk and Adaptation Assessment (CEDRA) tool. A basic description of some available tools from the three identified categories, including nonclimate change-related tools relevant for natural disaster risk management, is provided in Annex 2. 12
How are the right tool(s) for a specific project chosen? As mentioned above and described in Annex 2, a wide range of tools are available to support the assessment of climate risks and adaptation options in development projects. Thus, the first step is to decide which tool(s) to use for a specific project. Each tool has specific objectives and features (i.e. a focus on particular sectors, data needs, sensitivity), so it is very important to match the tool s characteristics with the objectives and scope of the development project and its components. The following tables (Tables 1 and 2), which contain a selection of the most practical and userfriendly tools (according to the authors) from the three categories listed above, may help in determining the most suitable one(s) to support the process of climate proofing a specific development project. Annex 6 provides additional information on these tools to further help in the selection. Section B 13
Table 1: Properties and uses of climate and adaptation decision-aiding tools Tool/Developer Type of tool Current Climate Climate Change Scenarios Climate Change Sector Impacts Analysis of Adaptation Options Analysis at the Community Level Economic Analysis Climate Change Portal / Screening Tool ADAPT World Bank Data generators, databases and data platforms / Computer-based 3 3 3 3 3 Adaptation Learning Mechanism UNDP Computer- based/ Frameworks for adaptation/ Climate risk management processes 3 3 3 3 Section B SERVIR USAID, NASA, CATHALAC, IAGT Climate Change Explorer CCE SEI Information generation, databases and platforms Data generators, databases and data platforms 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 CRiSTAL IISD, IUCN, SEI Adaptation Wizard UK Climate Impacts Program (UKCIP) Computer- based 3 3 3 Computer- based 3 3 3 3 Opportunities and Risks of Climate Change and Disasters (ORCHID) IDS Climate change and Environ-mental Degradation Risk and Adaptation Assessment (CEDRA) Tearfund Climate Wizard TNC Frameworks for adaptation/ Climate risk management processes Frameworks for adaptation/ Climate risk management processes Data generators, databases and platforms 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Please note that this list of tools is not exhaustive and includes those available at the time of writing. The tools Climate Check and CI:grasp are still in their initial stages and not included in this table. However, they are listed in Annex 2. 14
Table 2: Sensitivity/scale, ease of use and data requirements of screening tools Tool/ Developer Sensitivity/ Scale Ease of use Data requirements Climate Change Portal / Screening Tool ADAPT World Bank Intermediate (country and project level) Easy - Adaptation Learning Mechanism UNDP Intermediate (country and project level) Easy - SERVIR USAID, NASA, CATHALAC, IAGT Climate Change Explorer CCE SEI Intermediate (country level) High (regional, country and project level) Fairly Easy-Difficult (need to download program, some climate understanding is necessary) Fairly Easy- Difficult (some climate-related knowledge is necessary to understand most of the downscaled data) - - Section B CRiSTAL IISD, IUCN, SEI High (project and community level) Easy Most climate data must be provided to the model. Local perception of climate impacts. Adaptation Wizard UK Climate Impacts Program (UKCIP) High (regional, country and project level) Fairly Easy Some data inputs are requested to determine the local context. Opportunities and Risks of Climate Change and Disasters (ORCHID) IDS Intermediate (country and project level) Fairly Easy Most climate data must be provided to the model. Climate change and Environmental Degradation Risk and Adaptation Assessment (CEDRA) Tearfund High (project and community level) Easy Most climate data must be provided to the risk assessment framework. Local perception of climate impacts. ClimateWizard TNC Intermediate (country level) Fairly Easy 15
Should one or more climate risk screening and adaptation tools be used? The use of more than one tool can provide a more comprehensive set of information from different perspectives to help build the adaptation components of the project, i.e. by using one tool better suited for overall climate risk assessment, and another to assess local community perceptions and/or support the economic analysis. However, users should be aware that some of these tools are still under development and mainly intended for screening purposes only. Therefore, results of their use could sometimes be contradictory or incomplete regarding climate risks and/or specific local adaptation actions. In the case of major contradictions, project developers should revise relevant literature and documents, as well request expert opinions. Section B How is a choice made regarding possible recommended adaptation measures? The application of one or more risk screening tools can generate recommendations with respect to a variety of adaptation measures. At this point, it is important to narrow down the selection to those that are more suitable to the local conditions and expected to generate the best development outcomes, i.e. by using one of the following approaches: Using participatory approaches (see GN2 on engaging local communities) to assess knowledge of current local coping strategies, lessons learned from historical climate variability and local adaptive capacity. Learning from previous projects and studies to better interpret the results and recommendations of specific tools. The use of cross-sectoral evidence is a useful way of providing project managers and development professionals with information on how a certain practice might perform locally given a specific climatic risk, based on what it has achieved elsewhere under different conditions. In some cases, relevant reading material is suggested by the tools themselves. Performing an economic analysis (see GN7) once adaptation measures suitable to the local context have been identified, which might greatly help in narrowing down selections and prioritizing them. Resources 16
Selecting flexible agriculture and natural resource management practices that reflect valuable adaptation options can be effective in making decisions in the face of uncertainty. This approach recognizes that our understanding of the risks, the range of adaptation measures available, and the efficacy of a particular measure will change with time. As a result, adaptation measures can be implemented in different phases, with some being implemented immediately to address obvious risks, and others, such as those addressing more uncertain risks, delayed to a later phase. Resources Section B 17
Resources Climate Screening Tools Climate Change Portal/ADAPT: World Bank http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/ Climate Change Explorer (weadapt): SEI http://wikiadapt.org/index.php?title=the_climate_change_explorer_tool SERVIR: USAID http://www.servir.net/ CRiSTAL: IIDS http://www.cristaltool.org/ ORCHID: IDS http://www.ids.ac.uk/climatechange Adaptation Wizard: UK-CIP http://www.ukcip.org.uk/index.php?itemid=273&id=147&option=com_content&task=view ALM: UNDP (Adaptation to Climate Change) http://www.adaptationlearning.net/ Tanner, Thomas and Bruce Guenther. 2007. Screening Tools Geneva Workshop Report, April 2007, in Geneva, Switzerland. http://community.eldis.org/.59b64f67/adaptation_tools_workshop.pdf GTZ report on the International Workshop on Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change for a full description of available adaptation tools for development practitioners. http://www.gtz.de/de/dokumente/en-climate-mainstreaming-adaptation-workshop-report.pdf Readings Climate Risks The World Bank. 2006. Managing Climate Risk: Integrating Adaptation into World Bank Group Operations. Washington, DC: The World Bank. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/globalenvironmentfacilitygefoperations/resources/publications- Presentations/GEFAdaptationAug06.pdf Resources USAID. 2007. Adapting to Climate Variability and Change: A Guidance Manual for Development Planning. Washington, DC: U.S. Agency for International Development. http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/environment/climate/docs/reports/cc_vamanual.pdf 18
Climate Models IPCC. 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC. Kilsby, C.G., et al. 2007. A daily weather generator for use in climate change studies. Environmental Modelling and Software 22: 1705-1719. Disaster and Climate Change Risk Assessment: Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). Resource Library. GFDRR. http://gfdrr.org/index.cfm?page=resource%20library&itemid=20 The World Bank, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (forthcoming). Disaster and climate change risk assessment: An overview. Washington, DC: The World Bank. The World Bank, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (draft version). Assessing Country-level Disaster Risk and Incorporating Climate Change in Disaster Risk Assessments: A Toolkit. Conceptual Framework and Guidelines on Key Questions, Tools, Methods, Data Sources and Outcomes. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Experts For experts on climate change models, projections, and disaster risk assessments, please contact the climate change team at: climatehelp@worldbank.org Resources Resources 19
Glossary Adaptation Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects. Adaptation can be carried out in response to (ex post) or in anticipation of (ex ante) changes in climatic conditions. It entails a process by which measures and behaviors to prevent, moderate, cope with and take advantage of the consequences of climate events are planned, enhanced, developed and implemented. (adapted from UNDP 2005, UKCIP 2003 and IPCC 2001) [For the purpose of the Guidance Notes, the term adaptation refers only to planned adaptation measures. Some development practitioners include a wide range of activities under the term adaptation (i.e., natural resource management, improved access to markets, land tenure, etc.) that, although disconnected from climate risk issues, are considered to indirectly decrease vulnerability/increase adaptive capacity. For the purposes of the Guidance Notes, a measure is referred to as adaptation only when it is an explicit response to climate risk considerations.] Adaptive capacity Ability of a human or natural system to: adapt, i.e., to adjust to climate change, including to climate variability and extremes; prevent or moderate potential damages; take advantage of opportunities; or cope with the consequences. The adaptive capacity inherent in a human system represents the set of resources available for adaptation (information, technology, economic resources, institutions and so on), as well as the ability or capacity of that system to use the resources effectively in pursuit of adaptation. (adapted from UKCIP 2003 and UNDP 2005) [For the purposes of the Guidance Notes and, in particular, when the focus is on human systems, the terms adaptive capacity and resilience are used interchangeably.] Adaptation deficit Failure to adapt adequately to existing climate risks largely accounts for the adaptation deficit. Controlling and eliminating this deficit in the course of development is a necessary, but not sufficient, step in the longer-term project of adapting to climate change. Development decisions that do not properly consider current climate risks add to the costs and increase the deficit. As climate change accelerates, the adaptation deficit has the potential to rise much higher unless a serious adaptation program is implemented. Climate risk Glossary Climate Risk Denotes the result of the interaction of physically defined hazards with the properties of the exposed systems i.e., their sensitivity or social vulnerability. Risk can also be considered as the combination of an event, its likelihood and its consequences i.e., risk equals the probability of climate hazard multiplied by a given system s vulnerability. (UNDP, APF 2005) Resources 20
Global climate model (GCM) Computer model designed to help understand and simulate global and regional climate, in particular the climatic response to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. GCMs aim to include mathematical descriptions of important physical and chemical processes governing climate, including the role of the atmosphere, land, oceans and biological processes. The ability to simulate subregional climate is determined by the resolution of the model. Impact assessment (climate change) The practice of identifying and evaluating, in monetary and/or non-monetary terms, the effects of climate change on natural and human systems. (IPCC 2007) Regional climate model While global climate models (GCMs) simulate the entire Earth with a relatively coarse spatial resolution (e.g., they can capture features with scales of a few hundred km or larger), regional climate models (RCMs) downscaled from GCMs have a much higher resolution (simulating features with scales as small as a few km). Downscaling can be accomplished through one of two techniques: dynamical or statistical downscaling. Dynamical downscaling refers to the process of nesting high resolution RCMs within a global model, while statistical downscaling relies on using statistical relationships between large-scale atmospheric variables and regional climate to generate projections of future regional climatic conditions (Padgham 2009). Glossary 21
CCDP Climate Change for Development Professionals A Knowledge, Learning, and Capacity Building Initiative for the World Bank Group Contact us at CCDP@worldbank.org The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433 www.worldbank.org/climatechange