Climate resilient infrastructure

Transcription

1 resilient infrastructure Presented by Claus Kondrup, DG JASPERS Platform Workshop on Adaptation and Risk Management, Brussels, October 2014

2 Territorial climate impacts Geography matters, but also regional adaptive capacity! Most vulnerable areas in Europe: Southern Europe and the Mediterranean basin Mountainous areas, in particular the Alps Coastal zones, floodplains, islands Arctic region Cities

3 projections - Temperature

4 projections - Precipitation

5 Extremes Lower limit of extreme heat σ σ

6 mainstreaming Political objective: mainstreaming into EU legislation and funds, at least 20% climate related expenditure Legislation, guidance: Common Provisions Regulation ERDF, CF, Regulations Methodology (tracking climate expenditure) Major Projects Application Form Cost-Benefit Analysis, methodology Programming of ESIF : Partnership Agreements Programmes (ERDF, ESF, CF, EAFRD, EMFF) Adaptation: TO5 + Across the board Implementation: Selection criteria, Monitoring, Reporting

7 Fact Sheets on climate mainstreaming (adaptation, mitigation) Suggests adaptation projects for the majority of thematic objectives, investment priorities

8 Adaptation - here, there and everywhere Thematic Objective 5 "Promoting Change Adaptation, Risk prevention and Management", Investment Priority "(a) supporting investment for adaptation to climate change, including ecosystembased approaches" Mainstreaming across the board, into the majority of Thematic Objectives and Investment Priorities Resilient Infrastructure, notably Major Projects and the Methodology for Cost-Benefit Analysis, e.g. Option Analysis, GHG/CC Impacts on selected option, Economic Analysis (GHG, Impacts, Resilience), EIA (GHG, Resilience), Dedicated chapter on CC Mitigation and Adaptation, thorough risk analysis

9 EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change

10 Guidelines for Project Managers: Making vulnerable investments climate resilient Integrating climate resilience into the conventional asset lifecycle Modules: 1. Sensitivity (SA) 2. Exposure (EE) 3. Vulnerability (VA) 4. Risks (RA) 5. Options (IAO) 6. Appraisal (AAO) 7. Integration (IAAP) Themes: 1. On-site 2. Inputs 3. Outputs 4. Transport links

11 Module 1: Sensitivity analysis variables, hazards Result: climate variables and hazards deemed high or medium across one or more of the four sensitivity themes

12 Module 2: Evaluation of exposure to climate hazards, at the project location 2a) Assess exposure to baseline/observed climate, at the project location, for sensitive climate variables and hazards re module 1 Location, spatial data, climate impacts, regional/local/urban, four sensitivity themes Grade exposure (high, medium, none) 2b) Assess exposure to future climate variables/hazards Sensitive (module 1) or Exposed (module 2a) Assess future sensitivity and exposure Project life-time is a key parameter when choosing the climate modelling scenario time frame(s) Acknowledge uncertainty, summarise climate model outputs

13 Module 3: Vulnerability analysis 3a) Assess vulnerability to baseline/observed climate re modules 1 and 2a Vulnerability classification matrix Grade vulnerability (high, medium, none) 3b) Assess vulnerability to future climate Assuming the project's climate sensitivities remain constant in the future, the exposure incorporates the element of future climate change Adjust the vulnerability classification matrix in view of projections of future exposure Acknowledge uncertainty in final vulnerability classification Decide whether there are significant vulnerabilities

14 Module 3: Vulnerability analysis, con't

15 Module 4: Risk assessment Structured method of analysing climate impacts Assessing likelihoods and severity of impacts identified in module 2 and their risk to the project Builds upon vulnerability analysis, main focus on high vulnerabilities (red colour in the vulnerability matrix) Systems thinking approach, cause-effect links, interaction of factors Qualitative analysis in the earlier stages of the asset lifecycle, later more detailed quantitative analysis Expert judgement, risk identification workshop to identify hazards, consequences and key climaterelated risks, numerical modelling, Risk Register, Risk Matrix, high-level RA followed by detailed RA Decide on whether to identify adaptation measures to address risks

16 Module 4: Risk assessment, con't Consequences Risk Register Risk Matrix Probability

17 Module 5: Identification of adaptation options Option identification process: Workshop to identify appropriate options to respond to identified risks, smaller meetings, expert analysis Adaptation may involve mix of response actions: 'Soft' solutions, reallocation of resources, behavioural change, training, capacity building, reform Use of relevant best practice guidelines, standards Safety margins to cope with climate uncertainties 'Hard' engineering solutions, technical design taking into account accelerating rate of climate change and allowing for later modification Development of risk management plans (prevention, preparedness, response), emergency plans Risk protection (insurance, financial instruments)

18 Module 6: Appraisal of adaptation options Usually, cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to select efficient and 'optimal' options, i.e. those maximising net benefits In climate change context, focus widens to select efficient options performing robustly vis-à-vis uncertainties associated with future climate change Option selection strategy (decision rule) combines usual CBA with climate change risk management Project boundary (impact matrices, stakeholders) Forecast period, discount rate Baseline do-nothing scenario for expected future climate scenario(s) Identify costs and benefits of the various options Value costs and benefits of adaptation options

19 Module 6: Appraisal of adaptation options, con't Non-paper, annex II, Copenhagen, p.57

20 Module 7: Integration of adaptation action plan into the project development cycle Integrate decided climate resilience measures into the technical project design and management options Develop implementation plan (clear roles and responsibilities, identify actions needing institutional and community cooperation with plan and timing of consultation and communication) Finance plan (explicit statement on how the project will manage climate risks and vulnerabilities) Plan for monitoring and response (monitoring and systematic appraisal, review continued relevance and effectiveness of the adaptation decisions, identify adjustments)

21 Summary The impacts of climate change will have repercussions for assets and infrastructure with long lifetimes such as railways, bridges and power stations. change presents a compelling case for mainstreaming climate resilience into project development, which is an important step towards the EU effort to mainstream climate change adaptation. The Guidelines for Project Managers: Making vulnerable investments climate resilient helps project developers to incorporate resilience to current climate variability and future climate change. The Guidelines are designed to complement and integrate within the familiar appraisal processes used in project development.

22 Thank you for the attention Presented by Claus Kondrup Directorate-General for ("DG CLIMA") Tel , [email protected] EU Strategy on Adaptation to Change: Guidelines for project managers: European Adaptation Platform: Fact Sheets on climate mainstreaming into ESIF :

23 23 For info or further questions on this presentation, or on the activities of the JASPERS Networking Platform please contact: Massimo Marra JASPERS Networking Platform Senior Officer ph: