The need for Safety Intelligence based on European safety data analysis Rachel Daeschler Head of Safety Intelligence and Performance OPTICS Workshop, 29 April 2015
Content Introduction to EASA Safety Intelligence EASA Safety Intelligence activities Looking ahead: using ECR data Looking ahead even further: big data 2
Introduction to EASA 3
Introduction to EASA 4
Scope of competences EASA Safety Regulator Safety significantly affects all aviation domains: Total System Approach Airworthiness Operations & FCL 3rd Country Operations Aerodromes ATM/ANS 6
Partnership with EU States Member states Implementing EU Legislation Oversight of national organisations Production Maintenance OPs/Licencing Training ATM Aerodromes Implementing rules Oversight of Member States Aircraft and products certification Safety of non-eu operations Approval of non-eu organisations Production Maintenance Training ATM 7
EASA Structure EASA General Presentation 8
Safety Intelligence What is it and what is it for? 9
Safety Intelligence Knowledge gained through the analysis of available safety data including research Knowledge on safety performance, on safety issues How does Safety Intelligence help to improve Safety? Enables Safety Management, in particular Risk Management Enables Safety Promotion actions 10
Safety Intelligence in support of SMS source: SMICG Safety reporting A process for the acquisition of safety data not only related to product safety Hazard identification A method for identifying hazards related to the whole organisation (operational + systemic hazards) Risk Management A standard approach for assessing risks and for applying risk controls Performance Measurement Management tools for analysing how effectively the organisation s safety goals are being achieved Safety Assurance Processes based on quality management principles that support continual improvement of the organisation s safety performance 11
Which Safety Data? Occurrence Data Safety Reports Results of Audits, Inspections Reliability data Flight Data: FDM, Radar Safety Recommendations Exposure and Context Data 12
Audiences 13
EASA Safety Intelligence Activities OPTICS Workshop 29 April 2015 14
EASA Safety Intelligence activities Processing Safety Recommendations Processing Reported Occurrences Annual Safety Review, Safety Analysis Building a structured safety risk management Research 15
Processing Safety Recommendations 140 120 100 80 60 40 43 44 54 57 108 94 118 94 98 88 Total Disagreement 30 No longer applicable 1 Not responsible 1 Agreement 35 20 0 19 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Partial Agreement 66 Safety Recommendations received per year Closing replies provided in 2014 16
Processing Reported Occurrences 17
Processing Reported Occurrences (2014 figures) 18
Number of Fatalities Number of Passengers Transported Annual Safety Review 1.200 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year Fatalities Passengers Transported 1,80 1,60 1,40 1,20 1,00 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 0,00 19
Building Safety Risk Management Annual Safety Review European Aviation Safety plan States and Industry Data States and Industry Actions (SSP + SMS) Safety Issues from Approved Orgs & TCH Occurrence Reporting (IORS) Regulation Safety Recommendations Follow-up of accidents Accidents & Incidents + Exposure Accident Follow-up Safety Analysis Safety Data Safety Priorities Strategy & Programming (incl. Impact AssessmenT) Product Safety Oversight & Organisation Approvals Safety Promotion Inspection of Member States RAMP inspections results SAFA Data Analysis Operators (SAFA/SACA/TCO) Rulemaking, Standardisation and Certification Process Data International Cooperation 20
Building Safety Risk Management ESC SRP Safety Data Safety Priorities ASR Safety Risk Portfolio EASp Safety Risk Monitoring 21
Building Safety Risk Management Safety Issue Identification Safety Issue Assessment Safety Action Programming Safety Performance Analysis of occurrence data Scope Causes Consequences Risk Controls Definition of Actions Indicators relevant for monitoring the safety issue Analysis of other information Emerging Safety Issues Risk Assessment (using ARMS when possible) Impact assessment, prioritisation Follow-up of implementation Indicators relevant for measuring efficiency of actions 22
Building Safety Risk Management Safety Analysis at the level of the aviation activity area Ongoing: Balloons Accidents Ongoing: Offshore Helicopters accidents Safety Analysis at the level of the accident category Ongoing: LOC-I Study Safety Analysis at the level of the safety issue Ongoing: Erroneous Take-Off parameters Risk Assessment Methodology Use of ARMS when possible. Example: Report on Occurrences over High Seas involving Military Aircraft http://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/air/news/doc/2015-04-14-civil-military-coordination/report-onoccurrences-over-the-high-seas-involving-military-aircraft-in-2014.pdf 23
Example of Safety Issue ID Balloons Weather Planning Description & Stakeholders Provide a problem statement for the safety issue. If there are several scenarios that are relevant, please describe each of them separately here. Describe who is affected by the described issue, in which flight phases and circumstances. Insufficient or poor weather planning leading to unexpected encounters with weather phenomena for which the pilot is subsequently unprepared. All aspects of balloon operations in CAT and GA (pleasure flying) 1. Identification of Safety Issue Source & Rationale What triggered the identification of the issue? Are there safety studies available? Analysis of Hot Air Balloon occurrences in the Balloon Accident Data Coding and Analysis Group in March 2015. 2.Assessment of Safety Issue Scenario 1 Poor planning resulting in an unexpected weather encounter during the enroute phase Scenario 2 Poor planning resulting in an unexpected weather encounter during the landing phase Accident Outcome Risk (ARMS) CICTT Cat. Accident Outcome Risk (ARMS) CICTT Cat. Loss of control Monitor LOC-I Collision with Object During Landing Improve CTOL Negative factors/causes What actions or conditions increase or cause the accident risk? 1. Incorrect or unavailable meteorological information. 2. Meteorological information available but not used in the pre-flight planning process. 3. Pilot fails to interpret the relevance of meteorological information with reference to their planned flight. 4. External factors (commercial or competition pressure) or personal risk perception leads to an incorrect flight planning or flight initiation decision. Overall Risk Level (ARMS) Positive factors What events or conditions have a significant influence on reducing the risk? 1. Meteorological information readily available through public sources (Internet) 2. All major balloon events provide clear meteorological information for all pilots. 3. Training in interpretation of meteorological information in balloon pilot training and licensing process. Hard Landing Negative factors/causes What actions or conditions increase or cause the accident risk? 1. Incorrect or unavailable meteorological information. 2. Meteorological information available but not used in the pre-flight planning process. 3. Pilot fails to interpret the relevance of meteorological information with reference to their planned flight. 4. External factors (commercial or competition pressure) or personal risk perception leads to an incorrect flight planning or flight initiation decision. 5. Need for good pilot understanding of balloon physics and inertia. ARC Positive factors What events or conditions have a significant influence on reducing the risk? 1. Meteorological information readily available through public sources (Internet) 2. All major balloon events provide clear meteorological information for all pilots. 3. Training in interpretation of meteorological information in balloon pilot training and licensing process. 4. Training in balloon physics and inertia in balloon pilot training and licensing process. Improve 24
Example of Safety Issue ID Balloons Weather Planning 3. Safety Actions and Impact Actions/Risk controls in place What is in place to reduce the likelihood or severity of the scenario? Is it effective? 1. Meteorological information readily available through public sources (Internet). 2. All major balloon events provide clear meteorological information for all pilots. 3. Training in interpretation of meteorological information in balloon pilot training and licensing process. 4. Training in balloon physics and inertia in balloon pilot training and licensing process. New Actions/Risk Control Action Id & Short description Action Type Action Owner IA Score New Risks? Status Date BA001 08/04/2015 BA002 08/04/2015 Develop promotion package to assist balloon pilots in the availability and interpretation of meteorological information as relevant to balloon operations. Develop promotion package to inform balloon pilots on the dangers of poor planning and good practices in the flight planning and decision making process. Safety Promotion Safety Promotion Safety Promotion Programme Manager Safety Promotion Programme Manager TBD N Open TBD N Open 4. Safety Performance Date Safety Performance Measurement (Purpose and Parameters) 30/09/2019 Scenario 1. - LOC-I for Balloons in Enroute Phase Weather Relevant = Yes - Event Type Level 3 Environmental Weather Encounters in Enroute Phase - Event Type Level 3 Ground Conflict (Collisions or Near-Collisions) in Enroute Phase with associated Events Owner BADCAG Frequency? Annually Scenario 2. - ARC and CTOL for Balloons in Approach or Landing Phase Weather Relevant = Yes - Event Type Level 3 Environmental Weather Encounters in Approach or Landing Phase - Event Type Level 3 Ground Conflict (Collisions or Near-Collisions) in Approach or Landing Phase with associated Events - Event Type Level 3 - Balloon Specific Events in Approach or Landing Phase with associated Events BADCAG Annually OPTIS Workshop 29 April 2015 25
Looking ahead: using data from the European Central Repository 26
Regulation EU 376/2014 on Occurrence Reporting What are the objectives of the Regulation? To improve aviation safety by ensuring that relevant civil aviation safety information is reported, analysed and followed-up To ensure continued availability of safety information through Just Culture To what kind of event does it apply? To who does it apply? occurrence means any safety-related event which endangers or which, if not corrected or addressed, could endanger an aircraft, its occupants or any other person and includes in particular an accident or serious incident; The Member States EASA Organisations established in a MS which employs the persons covered by Art. 4 Natural persons as described in Art.4 27
EU 376/2014 Topology of occurrence data ORG ORG Directive 2003/42/EC MS1 ORG ORG BR 216/2008 + IRs EASA MS MS4 ECR MS2 ORG ORG Regulations 1321/2007 and 1330/2007 MS3 Regulation 376/2014 ORG ORG 28
Number of occurrence reports Looking ahead: using data from ECR Average number of occurrence reports integrated daily in the ECR 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year report created 29
Looking ahead further: A safety data exchange programme for Europe OPTICS Workshop 29 April 2015 30
Towards a European big data project? Available safety data (FDM, reports, radar, ) Big data technologies allowing for the processing of large amount of data Successful operation of similar data sharing initiatives (e.g. FAA ASIAS) Enhance aviation safety in Europe by moving from a reactive to a proactive safety management 31
European Data Exchange Programme for Aviation Safety Feasibility Study until September 2015 Looking for funding routes Go/No Go decision : end 2015 A Programme based on voluntary participation Need for high level of data protection and security 32
Big Data - Ongoing Feasibility Study 1 Which safety data, for which benefit? Descriptive list of all datasets that can be used Type of the potential data, source(s) and owners List of potential safety benefits that would be generated Which Phasing and Resources? Proposed plan Budget estimation 5 What supporting technical system? High level requirements for the selection of potential providers Assessment review for IT infrastructure and technologies: data storage, processing, analysis and visualization 4 3 2 What are the risks? How can they mitigated? For each category of data owners : Level of protection expected from technical and legal perspectives Benefits expected from joining a data sharing system Potential cost assessment to obtain data Organizational barriers Which Governance? List of all potential stakeholders Proposition of an organization: actors, responsibilities and processes Proposed model on how this programme could be integrated within the European Aviation system 33
Thank you for your attention