Statoil Fuel & Retail 4Q reporting - update Upside from lower level Recommendation: Buy Target: NOK 50 (55) 7 ruary Analyst: Ivar Andreas Lemmechen Gjul, +47 99 69 69 55 This report was prepared by an analyst employed by Fondsfinans ASA, the Norwegian affiliate of Fondsfinans Inc., who is not registered as a research analyst with FINRA or subject to FINRA rules governing research. See the last page of this report for Important Disclosure Information. 1
4Q UPDATE Upside from lower level Underlying performance weak as expected Yield the big dissapointment -> Weak cash flow and debt ratio explains Downtick in fuel margins as expected We believe CEE margin has reached bottom Fuel volumes weak Scandinavia: Underlying not as bad as it looks Convenience was positive Estimates come down -> Target at NOK 50 (55) and Buy 2
GROUP Weak performance as expected, but the real disappointment was the yield EBITDA (NOKm) 751 880 1,032 729 654 845 905 669 55 614 661 Adjusted for the NOK 55 in inventory write-down for Scandinavia EBITDA was in line with our estimate Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Dividend (NOK per share) Q411E 3.00 1.80 3.00 Yield was the biggest disappointment compared to our preview 2010 2011 2011E 3
DIVIDEND Weak cash flow limits dividend From SFR's presentation Actual 2.57 Debt target outside range Increase in net pension liabilities of NOK 500 million Increase in working capital with NOK 120 from 3Q, higher than expected Increase in capex with NOK 303m YoY, higher than expected Short term debt up by NOK 400m, still 2.8bn to draw Source: SFR. 1) Total debt including NPV of operational leases (NOK ~1.67bn). 2) Adjusted EBITDA (12 months rolling) adjusted for implicit interest expense. 3) Adjusted for upcoming reduction to pension liabilities of NOK 300m Range defines credit rating, refinancing coming up in 2012 4
DIVIDEND If debt level comes down as our estimates show there is upside to future yield level Total debt / adjusted EBITDA 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Current estimate Level if NOK 3 was pais as dividend * Assumes delta dividend leads to debt increase We now estimate yield at 50% of EPS for 2012 = NOK 1.94 per share We estimate Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA to 2.26 at 4Q12 with 50% pay-out ratio If a dividend of NOK 3 was paid Net debt / Adj. EBITDA would increase to 2.37 by the end of 2012 5
POLAND We believe CEE margin now has reached bottom Significant improvement in uary in Poland Pump Price* (PLN) 5.12 5.13 5.17 5.20 5.06 4.99 4.92 4.82 5.23 5.26 5.52 5.40 5.53 Pump Price* (NOK) 10.1 10.2 10.1 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.5 9.4 10.0 Pump Price and Brent Crude** (index NOK) PLN/NOK exchange rate 120 2.1 110 2.0 100 90 1.9 1.8 1.7 80 Pump Price (index = 100) Brent crude (index = 100) Source: Bloomberg * Price included taxes for Euro-Super 95 Gasoline ** Does not reflect changes to refinery margins 1.6 1.5 6
FUEL VOLUMES Underlying decline in fuel volume in Scandinavia not as bad as it looks Scandinavia: Fuel volume (mill. liters) CEE: Fuel volume (mill. liters) 1,500 1,634 1,692 1,635 1,494 1,632 1,679 1,584 1,628 447 499 542 521 445 505 555 522 537 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q411E Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q411E Road transportation fuel sold as heating oil in 4Q10 contributed to unusual high volumes Adjusted for sales as heating oil, underlying reduction moves from 2.4% to 1.3% Dependent on economic outlook in Europe B2B segment ok, cautious outlook for B2C segment 7
FUEL MARGINS We believe now upside to CEE margin Scandinavia: Fuel margin (NOK/l) 0.65 0.04 CEE: Fuel margin (NOK/l) 0.47 0.50 0.55 0.53 0.45 0.42 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.58 0.64 0.67 0.63 0.64 0.73 0.70 0.61 0.68 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q411E Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q411E Underlying fuel margin Inventory write-down Inventory write-down reduced margin by NOK 0.04 "Intensified competition", at same level in 1Q12 Downtick as expected, much due to continued weakness in Poland Distribution costs were lower than expected (not included in margin) 8
CONVENIENCE Convenience is brightspot Scandinavia: Convenience gross pr. (NOK) CEE: Convenience gross profit (NOK) 508 554 541 518 526 573 537 549 531 131 150 159 166 144 165 162 160 174 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q411E Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q411E Strong car wash sales important Increasing sales revenue for the first time in several quarters Underlying up 3.8% Reported drop driven by negative FX conversion effect Increasing sales revenues 9
SPECIAL PRODUCTS Overall weak, says improvement in 1H12 Aviation fuel unit margin and volumes 0.41 0.36 0.29 0.31 0.32 0.31 0.20 0.22 0.21 371 405 469 387 358 405 416 350 387 Higher than expected margin more than offset by volume decline Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q411E Aviation fuel volume (mill. liters) Aviation fuel unit margin (NOK/l) Lubricants unit margin and volumes 4.42 4.17 3.86 5.84 4.44 Increased competition in CEE 19 Q110 2.95 Q210 22 Q310 18 Q410 21 Q111 19 3.77 4.50 2.66 22 20 20 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q411E 23 Unit margin negatively impacted by geographical mix and raw material prices Lubricants volume (mill. liters) Lubricants unit margin (NOK/l) 10
FEE & SERVICES AND OTHER PRODUCTS At normalized levels Fees & Services* gross profit (NOKm) 263 244 236 181 191 157 160 161 141 Higher than expected Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q411E Other products** gross profit (NOKm) 259 239 239 Now at normalized levels 188 152 173 133 165 176 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q411E 11 * Figures for Scandinvavia, CEE and Special Products combined ** Figures for Scandinvavia and CEE combined
Segmental deviations Q411 change on: Q410 Q311 Q411 Q411E Q411E Q410 Revenues 17,372 19,078 18,603 18,464 1 % 7 % Gross profit 2,721 2,586 2,386 2,563-7 % -12 % EBITDA 749 924 614 661-7 % -18 % Operating profit 465 630 329 358-8 % -29 % Pre-tax profit 424 506 259 253 2 % -39 % EPS adjusted 1.02 1.14 0.63 0.60 4 % -38 % EBITDA per segm ent Scandinavia 627 783 540 609-11 % -14 % CEE 121 88 57 35 63 % -53 % Special products 41 69 15 48-68 % -63 % Corporate -39-16 1-31 -103 % -103 % Eliminations 0 0 0 0 0 % 0 % Gross margin per segment Road transportation fuel 1,303 1,380 1,165 1,310-11 % -11 % Convenience 684 699 709 705 1 % 4 % Other products 239 133 165 176-6 % -31 % Fees and services 236 141 191 161 19 % -19 % Aviation fuel 120 151 111 120-8 % -8 % Lubricants 81 90 53 102-48 % -35 % Other 236 239 228 240-5 % -3 % Eliminations -177-248 -237-250 -5 % 34 12%
ESTIMATE CHANGES Estimates come slightly down ESTIM ATE 2011E 2012E Change % CHANGES Current Previous Current Previous 2011 2012 Revenues 73,690 73,551 73,200 74,235 0 % -1 % Gross profit 10,033 10,210 10,260 10,478-2 % -2 % EBITDA 3,037 3,084 3,146 3,224-2 % -2 % EPS adjusted 3.54 3.53 3.88 4.05 1 % -4 % Dividend per share 1.80 3.00 1.94 3.00-40 % -35 % Gross profit per segment Scandinavia 7,683 7,780 7,661 7,752-1 % -1 % CEE 1,532 1,551 1,648 1,732-1 % -5 % Special products 849 913 1,005 1,036-7 % -3 % Other 954 965 968 980-1 % -1 % Eliminations -986-999 -1,022-1,022-1 % 0 % EBITDA per segment Scandinavia 2,749 2,818 2,697 2,751-2 % -2 % CEE 280 258 373 375 9 % 0 % Special products 89 121 201 224-27 % -10 % Other -80-112 -125-126 -28 % -1 % Eliminations 0 0 0 0 0 % 0 % Gross profit per product Road transportation fuel 5,103 5,248 5,143 5,348-3 % -4 % Convenience 2,816 2,811 2,919 2,916 0 % 0 % Other products 710 720 669 680-1 % -2 % Fees and services 673 643 673 642 5 % 5 % Aviation fuel 427 436 539 550-2 % -2 % Lubricants 337 386 370 384-13 % -4 % Other 954 965 968 980-1 % -1 % Eliminations -986-999 -1,022-1,022-1 % 0 % 13
Attachments kets Valuation 14
SWEDEN New fuel tax contributes to higher pump price Pump Price* (SEK) 13.70 13.46 13.23 14.37 14.00 14.15 14.18 13.94 13.91 13.89 13.82 13.87 14.75 Pump Price* (NOK) 12.7 12.5 12.2 12.1 12.2 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.9 11.9 11.8 Pump Price and Brent Crude** (index NOK) 120 SEK/NOK exchange rate 0.92 110 0.9 100 0.88 90 80 0.86 0.84 0.82 Pump price (index = 100) Brent crude (index = 100) Source: Bloomberg * Price included taxes for Euro-Super 95 Gasoline ** Does not reflect changes to refinery margins 15
DENMARK Looks better Pump Price* (DKK) 11.67 11.45 12.45 12.40 12.12 12.16 11.96 12.04 11.90 11.84 11.68 11.77 12.37 Pump Price* (NOK) 13.0 12.8 12.9 12.7 12.8 12.6 12.6 12.3 12.2 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.1 Pump Price and Brent Crude** (index NOK) DKK/NOK exchange rate 120 1.07 110 1.06 100 90 80 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.02 Pump price (index = 100) Brent crude (index = 100) 1.01 Source: Bloomberg * Price included taxes for Euro-Super 95 Gasoline ** Does not reflect changes to refinery margins 16
NORWAY Still margin pressure Pump Price* (NOK) Pump Price and Brent Crude** (index NOK) 15.1 14.8 14.4 14.6 14.4 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.4 110 105 100 95 90 85 Pump price (index = 100) Brent crude (index 100) Source: Bloomberg * Price included taxes for weighted diesel and gasoline 95 ** Does not reflect changes to refinery margins 17
POLAND Appreciating zloty important sign Pump Price* (PLN) 5.12 5.13 5.17 5.20 5.06 4.99 4.92 4.82 5.23 5.26 5.52 5.40 5.53 Pump Price* (NOK) 10.1 10.2 10.1 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.5 9.4 10.0 Pump Price and Brent Crude** (index NOK) PLN/NOK exchange rate 120 2.1 110 2.0 100 90 1.9 1.8 1.7 80 Pump Price (index = 100) Brent crude (index = 100) Source: Bloomberg * Price included taxes for Euro-Super 95 Gasoline ** Does not reflect changes to refinery margins 1.6 1.5 18
ESTONIA Recovering from price war Pump Price* (SEK) Pump Price* (NOK) 1.25 1.26 1.23 1.22 1.25 1.25 1.29 1.27 1.25 1.27 1.33 9.8 9.8 10.1 9.8 9.7 9.8 10.2 1.21 1.21 9.6 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.7 9.6 Pump Price and Brent Crude** (index NOK) SEK/NOK exchange rate 120 7.95 110 7.9 7.85 100 7.8 7.75 90 7.7 80 7.65 7.6 7.55 Pump Price (index = 100) Brent crude (index = 100) Source: Bloomberg * Price included taxes for Euro-Super 95 Gasoline ** Does not reflect changes to refinery margins 7.5 19
LITHUANIA More positive outlook Pump Price* (LTL) Pump Price* (NOK) 4.34 4.37 4.50 4.70 4.59 4.58 4.67 4.59 4.69 4.63 4.54 4.49 4.67 10.0 9.8 10.7 10.6 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.3 10.4 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.1 Pump Price and Brent Crude** (index NOK) LTL/NOK exchange rate 120 110 100 90 80 2.3 2.28 2.26 2.24 2.22 2.2 2.18 Pump Price (index = 100) Brent crude (index = 100) Source: Bloomberg * Price included taxes for Euro-Super 95 Gasoline ** Does not reflect changes to refinery margins 20
LATVIA Also looks better Pump Price* (SEK) 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.91 0.92 0.90 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.96 Pump Price* (NOK) 10.2 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.9 9.7 9.4 9.9 9.7 10.2 10.1 9.9 10.5 Pump Price and Brent Crude** (index NOK) 110 105 100 95 90 85 Pump price (index = 100) Brent crude (index = 100) Source: Bloomberg * Price included taxes for Euro-Super 95 Gasoline ** Does not reflect changes to refinery margins SEK/NOK exchange rate 11.3 11.2 11.1 11 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.6 21
Attachments kets Valuation 22
VALUATION We adjust target to NOK 50 (55) Valuation ranges DCF 50 Target changed to reflect estimate adjustments Fuel retail peers 52 Fuel retailers now prices SFR higher than food retailers Foods retail peers 48 30 34 38 42 46 50 54 58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 NOK per share Valuation range Valuation 23
VALUATION DCF valuation at NOK 50 DCF valuation PV CF PV CF DCF Per Implicit EV/EBITDA PV distributed 12-13 14-20 TV value share 2,010 2,011 2012E 2013E Scandinavia 807 5,037 8,830 14,675 49 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 Central & Eastern Europe 183 1,660 3,501 5,343 18 10.0 19.1 14.4 8.6 Special Products 50 506 925 1,482 5 8.3 16.6 7.4 8.7 Other -37-231 -408-677 -2-4.1 8.4 5.4 5.3 Eliminations 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Es t. EV 1,003 6,973 12,847 20,823 69 5.7 6.9 6.6 6.1 - Net interestbearing debt 5,716 19 + Property and other assets Value equity 15,107 50 NPV today 15,107 50 24
VALUATION DCF assumptions Beta 1.2 ket risk premium 5.0 % Risk free rate 4.00 % Tax 0.0 % Debt risk premium 2.0 % Equity ratio 75.0 % Return on equity 10.0 % Return on debt (pre-tax) 6.0 % WACC 9.0 % WC/Sales -3.0 % Capex/Sales -2.6 % Sensitivity % add-on in WACC 0 % TV grow th rate 2.3 % DCF Analysis Figures in MNOK 2,010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E TV Operating revenues Scandinavia 45,115 50,548 49,426 49,971 50,571 51,178 52,414 53,043 53,679 54,323 Scandinavia growth (%) 105.1 % 12.0 % -2.2 % 1.1 % 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.2 % Central & Eastern Europe 13,006 14,044 14,496 16,406 17,554 18,783 21,806 23,332 24,966 26,713 Central & Eastern Europe growth (%) 103.6 % 8.0 % 3.2 % 13.2 % 7.0 % 7.0 % 7.0 % 7.0 % 7.0 % 7.0 % Special Products 7,773 9,536 9,722 9,930 10,178 10,433 10,961 11,235 11,516 11,804 Special products growth (%) 123.8 % 22.7 % 1.9 % 2.1 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.5 % Other 841 954 968 983 997 1,012 1,043 1,059 1,075 1,091 Other growth (%) 173.4 % 13.4 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % Eliminations -906-1,392-1,413-1,434-1,456-1,477-1,522-1,545-1,568-1,592 Elimibnations growth (%) 398.8 % 53.6 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % Total 65,829 73,690 73,200 75,856 77,845 79,929 84,701 87,124 89,667 92,339 EBITDA Scandinavia 2,765 2,749 2,697 2,734 2,832 2,866 2,935 2,970 3,006 3,042 Scandinavia margin (%) 6.1 % 5.4 % 5.5 % 5.5 % 5.6 % 5.6 % 5.6 % 5.6 % 5.6 % 5.6 % Central & Eastern Europe 535 280 373 620 755 845 981 1,050 1,123 1,202 Central & Eastern Europe margin (%) 4.1 % 2.0 % 2.6 % 3.8 % 4.3 % 4.5 % 4.5 % 4.5 % 4.5 % 4.5 % Special Products 179 89 201 170 275 282 296 303 311 319 Special products margin (%) 2.3 % 0.9 % 2.1 % 1.7 % 2.7 % 2.7 % 2.7 % 2.7 % 2.7 % 2.7 % Other 167-80 -125-127 -129-131 -135-137 -139-141 EBITDA 3,479 3,038 3,146 3,397 3,733 3,862 4,078 4,187 4,302 4,422 EBITDA-margin (%) 5.3 % 4.1 % 4.3 % 4.5 % 4.8 % 4.8 % 4.8 % 4.8 % 4.8 % 4.8 % + Calculated tax -870-759 -787-849 -933-966 -1,019-1,047-1,075-1,106 2,609 2,278 2,360 2,547 2,800 2,897 3,058 3,140 3,226 3,317 NOPLAT + Net investments w orking capital 2,365-1,439-45 -14-60 -62-69 -73-76 -80 + Net investments assets -824-1,439-1,300-1,320-1,290-1,305-1,337-1,353-1,369-1,385 Net cash flow 4,150-600 1,015 1,213 1,450 1,529 1,653 1,715 1,781 1,851 27,631 25
VALUATION Fuel retailer based peer valuation at NOK 52 Fuel retailer peers FUNDAMENTALS EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E adj. Company Ticker Crncy M. cap. EV Price 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2010 2011 2012E 2013E Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen PKN PW NOK 30,546 52,055 38.94 5.3 5.3 6.4 6.0 10.6 9.4 13.9 12.7 20.8 16.8 10.4 9.5 Neste Oil Oyj NES1V FH NOK 18,858 35,076 9.62 9.7 8.2 6.4 5.6 21.4 13.5 12.5 9.6 21.1 26.0 10.2 7.6 Motor Oil (Hellas) Sa MOH GA NOK 4,746 14,419 5.60 7.9 5.1 5.7 5.5 11.3 6.5 7.5 7.5 6.7 4.1 4.5 4.1 Erg Spa ERG IM NOK 9,711 19,053 8.45 8.6 8.6 6.0 5.3 27.2 37.4 14.9 12.1 neg. neg. 20.5 12.1 Casey'S General Stores Inc CASY US NOK 11,645 14,918 53.03 8.4 9.9 7.7 7.1 11.8 14.2 11.1 9.8 20.6 22.6 16.4 14.5 Pantry Inc PTRY US NOK 1,701 7,758 12.74 5.2 5.7 6.0 5.7 10.2 11.0 11.3 10.6 8.6 13.6 16.3 9.7 Susser Holdings Corp SUSS US NOK 2,910 5,095 24.26 7.6 5.5 6.4 5.3 12.4 7.6 10.1 8.3 21.4 9.3 16.9 12.8 Omv Petrol Ofisi As-A Sh PTOFS TI NOK 9,057 20,057 4.76 8.1 10.2 9.6 n.a. 10.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 11.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. Average 7.6 7.3 6.8 5.8 14.4 14.2 11.6 10.1 15.8 15.4 13.6 10.0 Median 8.0 6.9 6.4 5.6 11.6 11.0 11.3 9.8 20.6 15.2 16.3 9.7 Peer based valuation Fuel retailers 2,010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2012 x EBITDA EV Value per Share Scandinavia 2,765 2,749 2,697 2,734 6.4 17,263 58 Central & Eastern Europe 535 280 372 619 9.6 3,568 12 Special Products 179 89 201 170 6.4 1,284 4 Other 167-80 -125-127 6.4-799 -3 Eliminations 0 0 0 0 6.4 0 0 Enterprise Value 3,646 3,038 3,145 3,396 6.8 21,317 71 Net interest bearing debt 5,716 19 Other adjustments 0 0 Equity value 15,601 52 Number of shares outstanding 300 SUM OF THE PARTS 52 26
VALUATION Food retailer based peer valuation at NOK 48 Food retailer peers FUNDAMENTALS EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E adj. Company Ticker Crncy M. cap. EV Price 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2010 2011 2012E 2013E Axfood Ab AXFO SS NOK 11,052 11,681 243.20 7.5 7.3 6.9 6.7 11.0 10.7 10.3 10.0 14.5 14.2 13.6 13.2 Kesko Oyj-B Shs KESBV FH NOK 18,213 19,669 24.06 6.3 6.2 6.4 5.9 9.2 8.8 9.7 9.0 13.3 12.3 13.2 12.2 Tesco Plc TSCO LN NOK 242,280 320,844 329.55 7.4 6.9 6.6 6.4 10.0 9.6 9.2 8.9 11.2 10.0 9.6 9.5 Sainsbury (J) Plc SBRY LN NOK 50,684 70,588 294.40 6.7 6.4 5.9 5.6 11.4 10.7 9.7 9.0 12.6 12.0 10.8 10.2 Wm Morrison Supermarkets MRW LN NOK 67,792 77,136 293.00 7.9 7.0 6.4 6.0 10.9 9.5 8.7 8.1 15.3 13.2 11.5 10.2 Colruyt Sa COLR BB NOK 38,344 36,595 29.75 7.7 7.2 7.5 7.1 9.8 9.2 10.2 9.6 13.7 13.0 14.1 13.2 Casino Guichard Perrachon CO FP NOK 58,045 129,471 68.58 8.4 7.4 6.3 5.6 13.0 11.2 9.3 8.1 14.0 13.7 11.8 10.3 Average 7.4 6.9 6.6 6.2 10.8 10.0 9.6 8.9 13.5 12.6 12.1 11.3 Median 7.5 7.0 6.4 6.0 10.9 9.6 9.7 9.0 13.7 13.0 11.8 10.3 Peer based valuation Food retailers 2,010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2012 x EBITDA EV Value per Share Scandinavia 2,765 2,749 2,697 2,734 6.4 17,263 58 Central & Eastern Europe 535 280 372 619 6.4 2,379 8 Special Products 179 89 201 170 6.4 1,284 4 Other 167-80 -125-127 6.4-799 -3 Eliminations 0 0 0 0 6.4 0 0 Enterprise Value 3,646 3,038 3,145 3,396 6.4 20,127 67 Net interest bearing debt 5,716 19 Other adjustments 0 0 Equity value 14,411 48 Number of shares outstanding 300 SUM OF THE PARTS 48 27
FORECAST Fuel margins will be stock triggers in the short term Key figures (NOKm) 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Q410 Q411 Revenues 65,829 73,690 73,200 75,856 17,372 18,603 Gross profit 10,530 10,033 10,260 10,678 2,721 2,386 EBITDA 3,644 3,037 3,146 3,397 749 614 Operating profit 2,341 1,864 1,952 2,184 465 329 Pre-tax profit 1,923 1,496 1,570 1,795 424 259 EPS, adj. 4.55 3.54 3.88 4.47 1.02 0.63 CFPS, adjusted 9.55 6.17 7.15 7.92 1.52 0.06 Dividend per share 3.00 1.80 1.94 2.24 Dividend yield 6.1 % 4.7 % 5.1 % 5.9 % EV/EBITDA 5.1 5.6 5.4 5.0 EV/EBIT 8.0 9.2 8.8 7.8 P/E, adj 10.9 10.7 9.8 8.5 P/B 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.3 ROE 17.5 % 13.9 % 15.2 % 16.2 % ROCE 10.2 % 10.6 % 11.2 % 11.9 % Trading at EV/EBITDA 2012E at 5.4x Peers trading at 6.4x Risk is down Indicates good entry point 28
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