European Policies Affecting the Supply Chain for IoT Andreas Wild Executive Director
Content Introduction Internet of Things: an Opportunity A European Policy: ECSEL JU ECSEL 2014 Actions IoT: Driving Next Generation? ECSEL Next Steps Conclusion 2
Economy of Scale: smaller features + larger wafers = diminishing cost Feature Size (nm) Wafer Size (mm)? Average Transistor Cost Introduction ITRS 2012 Edition: Table ORTC-7 Cost (at production) below 1 n$: -DRAM bit : $0.8n in 2014 -Transistor in MPU : $0.95n in 2021 3
Introduction The World is Still Hungry for Silicon 4
IoT: A Natural Evolution Connecting People IoT: an Opportunity Connecting People with Things It s no accident that one of the first Web celebrities was a thing, not a person. A camera trained on the coffeepot in the Computer Science department at Cambridge university was connected to a Web server Connecting Things 5
Electronic Leaders Group Recommendations 1.1 IoT : Unanimously Recognized as an Opportunity IoT: an Opportunity Track 1: Demand accelerators 1.1 Leadership in innovation in emerging market segments 1) Focus H2020/ECSEL on identified markets and notably IoT/SmartX 2) First call on excellence and competence centres in Smart X/IoT in H2020 3) Calls on zones of full scale testing of Smart X/IoT technologies in H2020/ECSEL (to be followed by subsequent calls in H2020 and/or ECSEL) H2020/ECSEL 2014 2020 H2020/ECSEL 2015 2020 6
What is ECSEL? ECSEL = Electronic Components and Systems for European Leadership ECSEL JU is: ECSL JU: an EU Policy A Public-Private Partnership keeping Europe at the Forefront of Technology Development 7
ECSEL JU Shall Drive Innovation by Focusing on Higher Technology Readiness Levels ECSL JU: an EU Policy European Commission, Brussels, 23.5.2013, COM(2013) 298 final 8
ECSEL Joint Undertaking In H2020 Autonomous Union body implementing a Joint Technology Initiative > 5B Joint undertaking established on the basis of Article 187 TFEU Body entrusted with the implementation of a PPP, discharged by the European Parliament on the Council recommendation (derogation Art.209, Reg. 966/2012) Members: - EU (represented through the Commission) : H2020 contributions: 1.17 B - ECSEL Participating States : envisaged contributions 1.17 B - Private Members (Assoc. AENEAS, ARTEMIS-IA, EPoSS) Administrative arrangements with the Public Authorities: ECSL JU: an EU Policy EU / EC: yearly Delegation Act entrusting ECSEL with the budget execution ECSEL Participating States have three options: - Administer the national grants independently (exchanging information with ECSEL) - Entrust ECSEL with cost recognition but not with the payments of national grants - Entrust ECSEL with the cost recognition and the payment of national grants (transfer to ECSEL the national contributions) 9
ECSEL JU Funding Mechanism ECSL JU: an EU Policy Adopt a Multi Annual Strategic Plan Every year, adopt a Work Plan to implement the MASP, including: the topics of the call(s) eligibility criteria and reimbursement rates (EU, national) budgetary pre-commitments of the Public Authorities Launch Calls for proposals on the topics listed in the WP A consortium must include at least three non-affiliated entities located in three different ECSEL Participating States Organize evaluation and selection of the proposals Establish JU Grant Agreements*, monitor execution: Technical reports and reviews Financial reports Verification of costs eligibility (H2020 rules) and EU grants payment *: the National Funding Authorities establish separate National Grant Agreements and pay national grants after verifying cost eligibility according to national criteria 10
ECSEL JU Governance Autonomous Union Body with Legal Personality Governing Board ECSEL Members (Public Authorities, Private Members) Strategic orientation and operations Membership, financial rules, budget and staff Adopts MASP, WP, Annual Activity Report etc. ECSL JU: an EU Policy Executive Director Programme Office Public Authorities Board European Commission, ECSEL Participating States Private Members Board AENEAS, ARTEMIS-IA, EPoSS Chief Executive, day-to-day management Legal representative accountable to the board Consolidates Multi Annual Strategic Plan (MASP) Elaborates Work Plan (WP) Funding decisions Rules of procedure for calls for proposals Proposals ranking, allocation of public funding Research agenda Multiannual Strategic R&I Agenda (MASRIA) Annual R&I Activities Plan (RIAP) 11
ECSL JU: an EU Policy ECSEL JU Multi Annual Strategic Plan 12
ECSEL Ecosystem Evolving from FP7 to H2020 Along the Value Chain ECSL JU: an EU Policy Materials Equipment Design Automation IP Blocks ECSEL JU Wafer processing Assembly and Test Embedded Software System Integration ELECTRONICS APPLICATIONS ENIAC + ARTEMIS + EPoSS = ECSEL FP7 H2020 European strategic necessities: Without state of the art semiconductor technology, Europe will depend entirely on importation (ENIAC JU) Without embedded software functionality, chips are useless, fabs are unsustainable (ARTEMIS JU) Without smart integration in systems, no economic and societal benefits are possible (ETP EPoSS) 13
The Electronics Systems Market and the ECSEL MASP $1,488B 93 125 174 205 437 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ECSL JU: an EU Policy 454 14
MOBILITY SOCIETY HEALTH ENERGY PROD. Mapping ECSEL MASP on Systems Market Segments 11 Resource-efficient transport 12 Less congestion, more safety 13 Next generation vehicles 23 Next generation digital lifestyle 21 Securing critical community assets 22 Trusted components and systems 31 Sustainable energy generation and conversion 32 Reducing energy consumption 33 Efficient community energy management 41 Home care and well-being 42 Hospital and heuristic care 43 Food processing and safety 51 Sustainable and integrated manufacturing 52 Semiconductor manufacturing 3.3 4.3 2.2 3.2 3.1 4.2 1.3 1.2 2.3 2.1 5.2 4.1 5.1 1.1 174 12% 205 14% 125 8% 93 6% 2014 $1,488B 437 29% 454 31% After McClean Report 2015 15 15
IoT in the ECSEL MASP 2014 Smart Society Strategy: components for security and safety, as well as trustable components and software 2.3 Impact European leadership for IoT A2.1 Trusted components and systems A.2.3 Next generation digital lifestyle ECSL JU: an EU Policy Cyber Physical Systems Annex Expected Achievements/ Innovation: for IoT interoperable & certifiable CPS architectures Autonomy and cooperation: Innovative applications evolving from IoT Smart Systems Integration Annex Essential technology areas for Smart Systems Integration: secure data interfaces for the integration into the IoT 16
ECSEL Calls 2014: Conclusion ECSEL 2014 Action National Grants EU Grants Call 2014-1: RIA Call 2014-2: IA Initial budget 17.5 42.5 TOTAL 164.5 (104.5 unassigned) Awarded 39.8 104.0 143.7 Initial budget 40 95 135 Awarded 48.3 106.7 155.0 TOTAL GRANTS Awarded 88.0 210.7 298.7 Projects Selected for Funding Eligible costs: 708M (National), 650M (H2020) 3Ccar EXIST MANTIS OSIRIS RobustSense SWARMs ADMONT InForMed POWERBASE R2Power300 SeNaTe WayToGo Fast 48 FPP submissions 12 projects selected Success rate: 1 in 4 17
ECSEL 2014 Action List of ECSEL Projects Arising from the Calls 2014 Eligible Cost (national rules) 18
ECSEL JU: an Inclusive Programme ECSEL 2014 Action Permeating virtually all industrial branches and aspects of societal life Bringing together Union, Participating States and the private sector Allowing participation of large and small countries, of regions Supporting the whole ecosystem: Sequoia (large) Normal trees (medium-sized) Bushes (small) Grass-root innovation (institutional / academic research) Naturally able to combine funding sources (e.g.h2020+esif) 19
ECSEL JU: a Mechanism Suitable for Combining Funding Industry Combining Funding: a Unique 3-Way Mechanism CATRENE, ITEA3, ΣURIPIDES2, CELTIC+, EUROGIA+, ACQUEA, Member States National Programmes EUREKA Clusters Regions 5 FPPs in 2014 JTIs /JUs Smart Specialization ESIF/ERDF BBI, Clean Sky, FCH, IMI Contractual PPPs FP7/H2020 Calls EeB, FoF, SPIRE, EGVI, Photonics, Robotics, HPC, 5G
Synergy H2020 ESIF in ECSEL Working with the leaders: synergy excellence convergence* *: http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/guides/synergy/synergies_en.pdf Basic condition: no double funding Detailed how-to : ECSEL Guide for Applicants 2014** **: http://www.ecsel.eu/web/downloads/documents/ecsel_ju_call%202014-1_and_call_2014- _Guide_for_applicants_v7.4.pdf Case 1: An ECSEL project may include ESI Funds to support: - One or more participants - One or more cost items Combining ECSEL 2014 funding Action ESIF can be awarded in 2015 when all pre-conditions are met 2014 Full Project Proposals need ESIF risk mitigation plan Case 2: ESIF can be used for subsequent actions or Case 3: ESIF can be used for parallel actions
Co-Funding Possibilities 3. Parallel ESIF ECSEL 2014 Action ECSEL Private: >50%* National: 25%* EU: 25%* R&I Phase Industrial Phase 1. Included ESIF 2. Subsequent ESIF *: percentages for illustration only, actual value will vary according to different criteria 22
Who Will Take Advantage of the IoT? Top 20 Semiconductor Sales Leaders B$ 2015 Perspective: Group 1 High volume, significant growth IoT: Driving Next Generation? After The McClean Report, 2011-2015 Group 2 Aggressive organic/anorganic growth Group 3 Sustaining; essentially flat (some grow, some shrink) 23
IoT: Driving Next Generation? Scaling: Larger Wafers and Smaller Features Lead to Inexpensive Units from Expensive Fabs Same principles: - Boolean algebra (1847) - Invertor with gain (1925) - Information theory (1948) lead to the same result: - Scaling = key to success. 2020 (?), 450mm: $17 B (?) 24
Installed Wafer Capacity <= 200mm 300mm $17B $14.7B $14.7B $6B IoT: Driving Next Generation? $170B in 5 10 years ELG Roadmap? European Strategic Investment Funds? Million 200mm equivalent wafers per year Future investments announced by the end of 2014
New in 2015 (compared to Calls of 2014) ECSEL Next Steps 2-phase call PO phase helps to align / improve proposals Elaborates the Excellence and Impact criteria PO is MANDATORY and GATING (!) Criteria Same top-level criteria (H2020) Improved depth and explanation Briefing of participants and experts Extended TRL definition Harware and software Different interpretations in different industries 26
Provisional Timeline 2015 EU and NFA pre-commitments*. *: under caveat: pending budgetary authorities decision PAB Meeting Call(s) open EU and NFA contribution adjustments PO closed FPP closed PAB Meeting (information) PAB Meeting (correction) Fix Contributions jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec PAB Funding Decision GRANT AGREEMENTS ECSEL Next Steps Public Authorities Working Group: - Rules evaluation /selection (rating steps) - Launch of calls 2015 GB Meeting GB: Adopt WP2015 Call Launch Event and Consortium Building: 14/15 tbc Evaluation by Experts Corrections by NFAs PROJECT START 27
We have been wrong in the past we will be wrong in the future It s tough to make predictions especially about the future (Yogi Berra) Selection of 300mm: 1994 THE FUTURE WILL HAPPEN ANYWAY! Conclusion Pilot lines in 1997-10 companies, incl. TI in Avezzano Early production in 1998 Coincidental with 0.25µ or 0.18µm Market drivers: - 2cm dice - ASSP - FPGA Initial target for 400/450mm: 2012 Semiconductor300, Dresden, 1990-2000 (Avezzano still waiting for 300mm ) First TSMC line 2000, further 2002-2003 90nm Communication processors??? But it will surely happen unless we invent something else 28
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