Development of Australian Climate Futures John Clarke, Tim Erwin, Leanne Webb, Kevin Hennessy, David Kent and Penny Whetton GREENHOUSE 2013 Adelaide, October 8-11
Summary The Climate Futures framework was developed by CSIRO in response to the needs of impacts researchers seeking tailored, detailed climate projections datasets. (Clarke et al. 2011; Whetton et al. 2012) It facilitates informed selection of a sub-set of model results for use in impact assessments. Building on the success of Pacific Climate Futures and Vietnam Climate Futures, the Australian version will be fully integrated into the new www.climatechangeinaustralia.com.au website in 2014 and will facilitate access to applicationready datasets.
Projections for Impact Assessment Climate projections are used in a variety of impact assessments The level of detail depends on the objectives of the decision-makers, e.g. less detail is required for general awareness-raising than designing a new road Not one size fits all, so climate projections need to be purpose-built
Typical climate projections Typically projections are given for individual climate variables for selected years and emissions Detailed scenarios impact assessments often Projections require from different internally climate consistent, models tend to be mixed multivariate together datasets and expressed as an average change with a range of uncertainty, e.g. Temperature rise of 2.5 C (1.9 to 3.4 C) Rainfall decrease of 12% (-35 to +13%) OK for general information
So... Solution: Use a single climate model to provide an internally consistent set of variables Problem: How to choose a model when there is so much choice! There are a number of considerations...
Choosing Models - Considerations Need to sample the range of model results Need to have confidence that the selected model(s) perform adequately Lack of consensus on how to identify best models Can more readily identify poor performing models Outlying/low likelihood but plausible simulated future climates may be highly relevant (Lempert & Schlesinger 2000; Dessai 2009)
Climate Futures Approach Rainfall change (%) 40 30 20 10 0 0.6 1.6 2.6 3.6 4.6-10 -20 2090 2-4 C warmer 20% drier to 30% wetter Each dot represents the change in temperature and rainfall from a single climate model A lot of possibilities How can we simplify this information? -30 Warming ( C)
Climate Futures Approach 40 30 20 Much wetter 2090 Warmer Hotter 3 out of 18 models give a hotter and much wetter climate Rainfall change (%) 10 0 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.6-10 Wetter Drier 6 out of 18 models give a warmer and much wetter climate etc -20-30 Much drier Warming ( C)
Hypothetical Case Study: Rainfall Capture & Storage Best Case Wettest, least hot Least investment in new infrastructure Climate scientists work with decision-makers to identify most relevant climate futures e.g. the biggest negative / positive impact the least impact the most likely future (where sensible) Very low likelihood
Hypothetical Case Study: Rainfall Capture & Storage Worst Case Driest (least rainfall) and hottest Low likelihood Greatest investment in new infrastructure Climate scientists work with decision-makers to identify most relevant climate futures e.g. the biggest negative / positive impact the least impact the most likely future (where sensible)
Hypothetical Case Study: Rainfall Capture & Storage Most Likely Climate scientists work with decision-makers to identify most relevant climate futures e.g. the biggest negative / positive impact the least impact the most likely future (where sensible)
Hypothetical Case Study: Rainfall Capture & Storage Focus on just the Climate Futures that will impact on the decisions to be made Samples the application-relevant range Most Likely Best case Worst case
Hypothetical Case Study: Rainfall Capture & Storage 2070 RCP8.5 Worst Case Case Climate Future Likelihood Representative Model Best Hotter, Wetter Very Low MIROC5 Worst Most Likely Much Hotter, Much Drier Hotter, Much Drier Low Moderate IPSL-CM5A-MR HadGEM2-ES
Application-ready Data Fully integrated into Climate Change in Australia website in 2014 - aided by a Decision-Tree Australian Climate Futures GCMs (CMIP3/CMIP5) RCMs Statistically downscaled etc. Climate Change in Australia Representative Models Data GIS Time-series Thresholds Extremes Links to other sources (e.g. QCCCE, NaRCLIM, CFT) Representative Models Visualisation Maps Plots Graphs
Existing Versions Pacific Climate Futures http://www.pacificclimatefutures.net.au Vietnam Climate Futures http://climatetool.vnclimate.vn If you would like more information or want to be a Beta tester let me know
Summary - revisited Key Climate Futures Publications The Climate Futures framework was developed by Whetton CSIRO in P, Hennessy response K, to Clarke the needs J, McInnes of impacts K and Kent D (2012) researchers Use of Representative seeking tailored, Climate detailed Futures climate in impact and projections adaptation datasets. assessment. Climatic Change. It facilitates informed selection of a sub-set of Clarke model JM, results Whetton for PH use and in Hennessy impact assessments. KJ (2011) Providing Building Application-specific the success of Climate Pacific Climate Projections Futures Datasets: and Vietnam CSIRO s Climate Futures, Framework. the Australian In 'MODSIM2011, version will be 19th fully International integrated Congress into the new on Modelling www.climatechangeinaustralia.com.au and Simulation. ' (Eds F Chan, D Marinova website in and 2014 RS Anderssen) and will facilitate pp. 2683-2690. access to ISBN: applicationready 978-0- datasets. 9872143-1-7.