NRM Climate Projections

Transcription

1 NRM Climate Projections Penny Whetton Acknowledgments to the NRM projections team! CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP ANDS Workshop, Brisbane, 16 April 2013

2 New projections in 2014 New climate model simulations Focus on serving the needs of natural resource management DCCEE funded Mid 2014

3 Regional NRM planning for Climate Change NRM Planning Supporting science Impacts and adaptation Climate projections

4 Key elements of NRM projections Ranges of plausible changes for multiple variables with explanations about driving processes Based on CMIP5, available downscaling and other evidence Various emission scenarios and time slices out to 2100 Address a range of user needs NRM planners NRM Element 2 impact researchers Eventually, every one else? Provide users with application-ready locally relevant data sets Provide framework for existing (incl CMIP3) and future downscaled data sets from various sources Major reports, journal articles, data sets, guidance material and training Most delivery by 30 June 2014

5 Analyzing CMIP5

6 Current climate maps

7 Climate Variables Committed variables (new analysis) Temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, potential evaporation, windspeed, sea surface temperature, SLR (Mean change and extremes) Fire danger, GDDs and runoff Synoptic systems, climate drivers and other variables (mainly literature review) Tropical cyclones, east coast lows, ENSO Snow cover, drought, hail, tornadoes

8 CMIP5 Simulations: ~90,000 years ~60 experiments ~20 modeling centres using ~30 major model configurations ~2 million output datasets ~2 petabytes of core output

9 CMIP5 model NCI Australian model data: - ACCESS1-0 14,128,800,255,593 bytes in 21,907 files - ACCESS1-3 15,239,579,009,750 bytes in 19,099 files - CSIRO-Mk ,339,050,041,768 bytes in 63,205 files Total CMIP5 data available to Australian climate community is in excess of: - 203,668,868,323,164 bytes in 392,775 files (~200TB) - already ~ 4 times our CMIP3 holdings Analysis products will increase this by a factor of 10!

10 Model and Analysis data conventions The Data Reference Syntax (DRS) Set of conventions to facilitate the naming of data entities/files delivered to users. Controlled vocabularies to facilitate documentation and discovery. Provides well-structured names, facilitating management of the data on file systems and simplify communication among users Controlled vocabularies will be useful in developing category-based data discovery services. Climate and Forecast Metadata Convention (CF) CF provides some basic discovery metadata in global attributes title - What s in the file institution - Where it was produced source - How it was produced e.g. model version, instrument type history - Audit trail of processing operations references - Pointers to publications or web documentation comment - Miscellaneous

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12 Datasets Derived products

13 Data sets for applications Build upon available products New and existing downscaled data sets using various methods

14 NRM project and downscaling: Key points Will generate some new statistical and dynamical downscaled data based on CMIP5 Provide guidance document on using downscaling No one preferred downscaling system, but aim to better understand differences in their results Will not attempt to displace existing downscaled data sets or those to be generated in other projects But will rather develop a framework that will place various data sets in the context of latest science on future regional climate change And point users via the NRM web portal at application data sets within and outside the project The framework task or the federated system

15 Climate Futures

16 Hypothetical Case Study: Rainfall Capture, Perth 2050 A1FI Most Likely Worst case Best case

17 The challenge of guiding users to the right projection information for their application

18 Some key points Raw climate model data is not currently easy to access or interpret and is very voluminous. Stored at NCI. NRM projections project will make various derived products (suitable for wider use) available through the Climate Change in Australia website at the end of the NRM project. A key mechanism will be the Climate Futures tool (CF), which lead uses to derived data for selected individual models and downscaled runs CF will link to data sets outside those generated in CSIRO and will enable diverse sources of climate projections to be related to one another Happy to help in making CF and other derived products discoverable Note that guidance material is important and should not be bypassed as we link systems

19 Thank you