CIO Flash Revisions to our global outlook Jan 25, +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH The global macro picture: keeping faith in existing fundamentals Recent market volatility, combined with further oil price declines, has raised fears that global growth could slow this year. We believe that the markets fears are overdone. Our global growth forecast remains constructive at now 3,4% (reduced 3,5% due to weakness in single emerging markets). This is based on an-already conservative Chinese GDP growth forecast (6%) and broadly-unchanged views on the U.S. economy. We continue to believe that a low oil price will have a positive net effect on consumption of oil importing countries but remain concerned about its impact on inflation and central banks responses to this. We also acknowledge that, were volatility to prove prolonged or get worse, then the global economy would be vulnerable. Asset classes: still constructive on equities but more cautious on high yield We have made some relatively minor changes to the asset class forecasts made at our November 2015 CIO Day. Equities: After a very poor start for markets in, we have revised down our end- forecasts for the major developed market (DM) equity indices. Details are given in the table overleaf. The end forecast for the S&P 500 index is now 2,080 (previously 2,170); for the STOXX Europe 600 index it is 370 (390), for the MSCI Japan it is 1,000 (1,030). We keep our DM valuations forecasts unchanged, but lower our DM earnings assumptions. DM earnings growth will be affected by commodity prices, emerging markets problems and manufacturing weakness but we still expect developed markets earnings to grow in aggregate by around 5% this year. Looking beyond the immediate future, this leaves us longer-term constructive on DM equities. We believe that the Eurozone and Japan offer rebound potential of greater than 10% to end- for investors with sufficient risk budgets. We are more pessimistic about emerging market (EM) equities. We believe that EM aggregate earnings will fall further in and remain underweighting this sub-asset class. Fixed income: We keep our strategic forecasts unchanged, with the exception of U.S. and EUR high yield. We are now cautious on U.S. high yield, upping the end- forecast on spreads 520 basis points (bps) to 800 bps. The deterioration in energy and metals and mining sectors, together with the financing repercussions for other sectors, may hurt this sub-asset class although we see opportunities in relative value here. The direct impact of lower oil prices on EUR high yield may be limited, but fears of spill-over effects leads us to raise spread forecasts here too, if more modestly, 440bps to 500bps. Other strategic fixed income forecasts remain unchanged although our tactical positioning, as always, remains under constant review. Commodities. We still expect an increase in the oil price over, as low prices discourage production and new investment, but believe that inventory depletion will keep downward pressure on the oil price in the first half of the year. Our revised forecasts are (WTI): Q1 $36/b (previously $50/b), Q2 $36/b ($50/b), Q3 $40/b ($50/b), Q4 $50/b ($55/b). This gives a annual average of $40/b. We will publish a special report on the investment implications of lower oil prices in the next few days. FX: We keep our key FX forecasts unchanged, with the exception of the Chinese Yuan (CNY). We now expect CNY vs. U.S. dollar of 6.90 at end (previous forecast 6.60). We still expect CNY depreciation to be managed in a controlled and well-contained manner over the course of this year. Investments are subject to various risks, including market fluctuations, regulatory change, counterparty risk, possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may not recover the amount originally invested at any point in time. Deutsche AWM expectations 2015. s are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target will be achieved; Deutsche AWM Investment GmbH, CIO Office; Deutsche Bank AG; As of January 25, CIO Flash Revisions to our global outlook, Jan 25th,
CIO Flash Revisions to our global outlook Jan 25, Detailed forecasts +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH Macro Framework Strategic Summary GDP Growth in % 2015 Consensus (BBG 2 ) Equity (index value in points) Current Current Last Current Market Nov 2015 Current level Jan United States 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 United States S&P 500 2,170 1906.9 2,080 Eurozone 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 Europe STOXX Europe 600 390 338.36 370 United Kingdom 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.4 Eurozone Euro STOXX 50 3,600 3,023 3,400 Japan 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.0 Germany DAX 11,700 9,764 11,300 China 6.8 6.0 6.0 6.5 Japan MSCI Japan 1,030 833.57 1,000 World 3.2 3.4 3.5 3,3 Asia ex Japan Emerging Markets 4.2 4.3 4.5 4,5 Emerging Markets MSCI Asia ex Japan MSCI Emerging Markets 510 448.14 470 830 710.66 730 Currencies Market Nov 2015 Current level* Jan Capital market yields in % Market Nov 2015 Current level Jan EUR vs USD USD/EUR 0.95 1.0796 0.95 UST 2yr US 2y yield 1.50 0.8691 1.50 USD vs JPY JPY/USD 130 118.78 130 UST 10yr US 10y yield 2.40 2.0519 2.40 EUR vs JPY EUR/JPY 123.5 128.26 123.5 UST 30yr US 30y yield 3.10 2.8238 3.10 EUR vs GBP EUR/GBP 0.63 0.75708 0.63 Schatz 2yr GER 2y yield -0.25-0.445-0.25 GBP vs USD GBP/USD 1.52 1.4265 1.52 Bund 10yr GER 10y yield 0.75 0.484 0.75 CNY vs USD CNY/USD 6.6 6.58 6.9 Gilt 10yr UK 10y yield 2.20 1.711 2.20 EUR refers to the euro, USD to the U.S. dollar, JPY to the Japanese yen, GBP to the British pound. Commodities in U.S. dollar Market Nov 2015 Current level Jan Gold Gold Spot 1,000 1097.95 1,000 Oil WTI 55 32.19 50 JGB 2yr JPN 2y yield 0.00-0.016 0.00 JGB 10yr JPN 10y yield 0.35 0.24 0.35 US HY Barclays US HY 520 750 800 EUR HY ML EUR Non- Fin HY Constr. 420 637 500 UST refers to the U.S. Treasury, JPG to Japanese government bonds, Schatz to German government two year bonds, Gilt to U.K. government bonds *Source: Bloomberg As of 22 Jan Investments are subject to various risks, including market fluctuations, regulatory change, counterparty risk, possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may not recover the amount originally invested at any point in time. Deutsche AWM expectations. s are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target will be achieved; Deutsche AWM Investment GmbH, CIO Office; Deutsche Bank AG CIO Flash Revisions to our global outlook, Jan 25th,
Glossary Explanation of terms A barrel (b) is the commonly used unit to measure crude oil. One barrel is about 159 liters. Emerging markets (EM) are those economies which are not yet fully developed in terms of market efficiency, liquidity, and other factors. The Eurozone is formed of 19 European Union member states that have adopted the euro as their common currency and sole legal tender. FX or foreign exchange is the currency literally foreign money used in the settlement of international trade between countries. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of all goods and services produced by a country s economy. High-yield is often used as a shorthand for high-yield bonds. The MSCI Japan tracks the performance of Japanese stocks. A particular security is underweight in a portfolio when it holds a lower weighting in comparison with the security's weight in the underlying benchmark portfolio. The spread is the difference between the quoted rates of return on two different investments, usually of different credit quality. The S&P 500 tracks the performance of 500 leading U.S. stocks and is widely considered representative of the U.S. equity market. The STOXX Europe 600 index tracks the performance of 600 company stocks the European region. U.S. Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a grade of crude oil which is used as a benchmark in oil pricing. Yield describes the income return on an investment. It includes the interest and dividends received a security. Valuation attempts to quantify the attractiveness of an asset, for example through looking at a firm's stock price in relation to its earnings. Volatility is the degree of variation of a trading-price series over time. CIO Flash Revisions to our global outlook, Jan 25th,
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