11 February 2016 SELL Asset quality horror run to continue maintain SELL SBIN posted a disappointing Q3FY16 with PAT tumbling 61% QoQ to Rs 11.2bn on mounting provisions. Slippages climbed to Rs 206bn (Q2: Rs 59bn) with ~70% of these stemming from RBI s asset quality review cases. The bank refinanced accounts worth Rs 77bn under 5:25 and evoked SDR on 12 accounts of Rs 84bn. We slash FY16E-FY18E earnings by ~30% citing higher credit costs. With asset quality pressures unlikely to wane, we maintain SELL with a Mar 17 TP of Rs 150 (Sep 16 TP of Rs 210 earlier). Asset quality pain remains: SBIN s Q3 slippages jumped to Rs 206bn (Q2: Rs 59bn), with around 70% of these driven by three accounts (including one large textile account). Management stated that assets worth Rs 150bn slipped due to RBI s asset quality review (AQR), with a similar quantum of assets expected to slip in Q4FY16 as well. Thus, slippages (fresh + AQR) are likely to stay at Rs 200bn-220bn in Q4FY16. The outstanding restructured book declined 10% QoQ to Rs 486bn since accounts worth Rs 50bn slipped into NPAs. ARC sales were at Rs 4bn and outstanding SR held for ARC sale stood at Rs 56bn as of Q3FY16. The bank evoked SDR on 12 accounts worth Rs 84bn and refinanced accounts worth Rs 77bn under 5:25. Management intends to refinance accounts worth Rs 40bn under 5:25 but does not have SDR cases in the pipeline. Margins, loan growth largely in line: Management stated that including corporate bonds and CPs, credit growth picked up and stood at 15% YoY. Net interest margins declined by ~7bps QoQ. Interest reversals due to AQR slippages were at Rs 3.7bn. Maintain SELL: We cut FY16E-FY18E earnings by ~30% to factor in the increase in credit costs. Maintain SELL with a Mar 17 TP of Rs 150 (rolled over from a Sep 16 TP of Rs 210). REPORT AUTHORS Parag Jariwala, CFA +91 22 6766 3442 parag.jariwala@religare.com Vikesh Mehta +91 22 6766 3474 vikesh.mehta@religare.com PRICE CLOSE (11 Feb 16) INR 154.25 MARKET CAP INR 1,197.4 bln USD 17.6 bln SHARES O/S 7,465.7 mln FREE FLOAT 41.4% 3M AVG DAILY VOLUME/VALUE 17.2 mln / USD 51.7 mln 52 WK HIGH INR 315.80 52 WK LOW INR 152.10 Financial Highlights Y/E 31 Mar FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E Net interest income (INR mln) 6,75,834 7,47,957 7,82,531 9,02,101 10,40,915 Net revenues (INR mln) 10,54,655 12,41,109 12,41,292 14,28,030 16,25,902 Pre-provision profits (INR mln) 4,20,968 5,02,625 5,18,942 5,54,384 6,50,310 Adj. PAT (INR mln) 1,44,895 1,75,177 1,31,618 1,80,107 2,22,125 Adj. EPS (INR) 20.3 23.5 17.2 22.5 27.2 ROE (%) 10.6 11.3 7.7 9.4 10.6 ROA (%) 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 Gross NPA (%) 5.0 3.4 5.8 5.2 4.5 Tier I ratio (%) 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.3 8.7 P/BV (x) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 P/E (x) 7.6 6.6 9.0 6.8 5.7 Source: Company, Bloomberg, RCML Research (INR) Stock Price Index Price 330 29,410 280 24,410 230 180 19,410 130 14,410 This report has been prepared by Religare Capital Markets Limited or one of its affiliates. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, please refer to the Disclosure and Disclaimer section at the end of this report. Analysts employed by non-us affiliates are not registered with FINRA regulation and may not be subject to FINRA/NYSE restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Fig 1 - Quarterly performance (Rs mn) Q3FY15 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 % YoY % QoQ Income Statement Interest income 3,85,462 4,06,576 4,05,535 5.2 (0.3) Interest expense 2,47,695 2,64,050 2,69,470 8.8 2.1 Net interest income 1,37,766 1,42,526 1,36,065 (1.2) (4.5) Fees 32,906 31,530 35,090 6.6 11.3 Non-interest income 52,378 61,973 61,775 17.9 (0.3) Net total income 1,90,144 2,04,498 1,97,840 4.0 (3.3) Total operating expenses 97,200 1,01,839 1,01,862 4.8 0.0 Pre-provisioning profit 92,945 1,02,659 95,978 3.3 (6.5) Total provisions 52,349 43,606 79,494 51.9 82.3 Profit before tax 40,596 59,053 16,484 (59.4) (72.1) Tax 11,491 20,262 5,332 (53.6) (73.7) Profit after tax 29,105 38,791 11,152 (61.7) (71.3) Balance Sheet Loans 1,23,25,450 1,33,71,532 1,39,12,578 12.9 4.0 Deposits 1,51,00,770 1,63,41,145 1,67,14,162 10.7 2.3 CASA ratio (%) 42.6 42.2 42.7 12bps 46bps CASA deposits 60,36,370 65,14,300 67,43,030 11.7 3.5 Yield and margin (%) Yield on advances 10.6 10.3 10.1 (45bps) (20bps) Cost of deposits 6.3 6.3 6.3 (6bps) (4bps) NIM - YTD Reported 3.1 3.0 2.9 (19bps) (8bps) NIM Quarterly Calculated 3.1 3.0 2.9 (21bps) (8bps) Asset quality Gross NPAs 6,19,915 5,68,343 7,27,917 17.4 28.1 Net NPAs 3,44,687 2,85,920 4,02,491 16.8 40.8 Gross NPA ratio (%) 4.9 4.2 5.1 20bps 95bps Net NPA ratio (%) 2.8 2.1 2.9 9bps 75bps Capital adequacy ratios (%) Tier-1 9.4 9.9 9.6 26bps (27bps) Tier-2 2.7 2.3 2.8 16bps 55bps Total CAR 12.0 12.2 12.5 42bps 28bps Other key ratios (%) Cost/Income 51.1 49.8 51.5 37bps 169bps Core Cost Income 53.7 53.7 54.9 120bps 119bps Fee Income/Operating Income 17.3 15.4 17.7 43bps 232bps Tax rate 28.3 34.3 32.3 404bps (197bps) Loan - Deposit ratio 81.6 81.8 83.2 162bps 141bps 11 February 2016 Page 2 of 9
Fig 2 - Stressed asset formation inches up further on RBI s AQR (Rs bn) Slippages Fresh restructuring 5/25 refinancing SDR 400 350 300 250 200 60.0 84.0 77.0 13.0 150 64.8 39.0 76.4 36.0 100 118.9 34.5 39.0 206.9 25.8 39.4 25.0 50 114.4 79.5 99.3 77.0 70.4 73.2 47.7 58.8 0 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Fig 3 - GNPAs increase ~100bps to 5.1% (Rs bn) GNPA NNPA 6 5.7 5 4 3 2 3.2 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 4.3 4.3 4.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 5.1 2.9 1 0 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Fig 4 - Global NIMs decline to 2.9% in Q3 (%) NIM 3.19 3.2 3.17 3.13 3.11 3.12 3.1 3.16 3.0 2.99 3.01 2.93 2.9 2.8 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 11 February 2016 Page 3 of 9
Valuations We value SBIN using the two-stage Gordon Growth Model, and adjust our book value for net NPAs and assume a 40% hit on outstanding restructured assets. We also cut our FY16E-FY18E earnings by ~30% to factor in the increase in credit costs. Maintain SELL with a revised Mar 17 TP of Rs 150 (from Rs 210 earlier). Fig 5 - Estimate revision Particulars Earlier estimates New estimates Change (%) FY16E FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E FY18E Net interest income (Rs mn) 8,26,025 9,28,220 10,71,061 7,82,531 9,02,101 10,40,915 (5.3) (2.8) (2.8) Pre-provisioning profit (Rs mn) 5,38,392 6,05,015 7,01,179 5,18,942 5,54,384 6,50,310 (3.6) (8.4) (7.3) Profit after tax (Rs mn) 1,96,404 2,43,138 3,10,715 1,31,618 1,80,107 2,22,125 (33.0) (25.9) (28.5) EPS (Rs) 25.7 30.4 38.1 17.2 22.5 27.2 (33.0) (25.9) (28.5) Source: RCML Research Fig 6 - Valuation snapshot Components of two-stage GGM Assumptions Risk free rate 7.5% Market risk premium 5.0% Beta 1.1x G 5.0% Cost of equity 14.1% Blended RoE estimate 14.5% P/ABV 1.0 Mar 17 adjusted book value (Rs) 170 Restructuring hit 48 Adjusted Book Value for Restructuring 122 Fair value based on ABV (INR) 150 Fig 7 - One-year forward P/BV SBIN trading close to the mean (x) PBV +1 Sd Mean -1 Sd 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Feb-02 Feb-04 Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12 Feb-14 Feb-16 Source: Company, Bloomberg, RCML Research 11 February 2016 Page 4 of 9
Per Share Data Y/E 31 Mar (INR) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E Reported EPS 20.3 23.5 17.2 22.5 27.2 Adjusted EPS 20.3 23.5 17.2 22.5 27.2 DPS 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.3 4.3 Book value 197.4 216.2 229.5 247.5 264.8 Adjusted book value 159.0 197.1 165.2 200.9 237.1 Valuation Ratios Y/E 31 Mar (x) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E P/E 7.6 6.6 9.0 6.8 5.7 P/BV 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 P/ABV 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 Financial Ratios Y/E 31 Mar (%) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E Spread Analysis Yield on advances 9.5 9.4 9.1 9.2 9.2 Yield on investments 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.8 Cost of funds 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 NIMs 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.9 Operating Ratios Operating cost to income 60.1 59.5 58.2 61.2 60.0 Operating expenses / Avg assets 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.6 Proportion of CASA deposits 40.3 39.4 39.4 39.3 39.2 Non-int inc / Total income 35.9 39.7 37.0 36.8 36.0 Credit / Deposit ratio 85.8 82.4 82.1 82.4 82.6 Investment / Deposit 31.5 33.9 33.7 33.4 33.2 Asset Quality and Capital Gross NPA 5.0 3.4 5.8 5.2 4.5 Net NPA 2.7 1.2 3.9 2.6 1.3 Coverage ratio 47.7 64.8 34.2 52.2 71.9 CAR 12.2 12.0 12.5 12.6 12.3 Tier I ratio 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.3 8.7 Growth Ratios Net interest income 10.5 10.7 4.6 15.3 15.4 Non-interest income 8.8 5.0 18.0 12.0 15.0 Non-interest income (ex-treasury) 106.8 119.3 108.0 111.5 113.0 Pre-provisioning profit 2.9 19.4 3.2 6.8 17.3 Net profit (20.9) 20.9 (24.9) 36.8 23.3 Assets 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.9 13.7 Advances 13.2 7.0 13.2 16.1 15.9 Deposits 13.0 11.6 13.9 14.9 14.9 Book value per share 8.0 9.5 6.2 7.9 7.0 EPS (25.1) 15.8 (26.7) 31.0 21.0 DuPont Analysis Y/E 31 Mar (%) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E Net interest income / Assets 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.8 Non-interest income / Assets 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.6 Operating expenses / Assets 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.6 Provisions / Assets 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 Taxes / Assets 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 ROA 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 Equity / Assets 16.6 16.5 16.9 17.1 17.8 ROAE 10.6 11.3 7.7 9.4 10.6 11 February 2016 Page 5 of 9
Profit and Loss Statement Y/E 31 Mar (INR mln) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E Interest income 18,90,624 20,79,743 22,73,765 25,94,184 29,80,171 Interest expense (12,14,790) (13,31,786) (14,91,234) (16,92,083) (19,39,256) Net interest income 6,75,834 7,47,957 7,82,531 9,02,101 10,40,915 Non-interest income 3,78,821 4,93,152 4,58,761 5,25,929 5,84,987 Non-interest income (ex-treasury) 3,17,455 3,78,572 4,08,761 4,55,929 5,14,987 Net revenue 10,54,655 12,41,109 12,41,292 14,28,030 16,25,902 Operating expenses (6,33,687) (7,38,483) (7,22,350) (8,73,645) (9,75,592) Pre-provision profits 4,20,968 5,02,625 5,18,942 5,54,384 6,50,310 Provisions & contingencies (2,07,712) (2,44,077) (3,22,498) (2,85,568) (3,18,780) PBT 2,13,255 2,58,549 1,96,444 2,68,816 3,31,530 Extraordinaries 0 0 0 0 0 Income tax (68,361) (83,372) (64,827) (88,709) (1,09,405) Reported PAT 1,44,895 1,75,177 1,31,618 1,80,107 2,22,125 Adj. net profit 1,44,895 1,75,177 1,31,618 1,80,107 2,22,125 Balance Sheet Y/E 31 Mar (INR mln) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E Cash in hand & bal with RBI 11,40,956 14,42,875 15,16,795 15,94,516 16,76,237 Bal with banks, money at call 5,30,657 6,42,990 6,51,089 6,59,354 6,67,793 Investments 57,87,931 69,56,918 78,75,999 89,65,678 1,02,56,099 Advances 1,57,82,767 1,69,22,113 1,92,08,817 2,21,27,678 2,54,94,062 Fixed assets (net) 1,05,598 1,23,793 1,42,362 1,63,716 1,88,274 Other assets 6,11,907 9,12,411 11,45,796 12,82,631 12,77,900 Total Assets 2,39,59,816 2,70,01,100 3,05,40,857 3,47,93,574 3,95,60,365 Equity capital 7,466 7,466 7,839 8,153 8,153 Reserves & surplus 14,66,240 16,06,410 17,91,051 20,09,569 21,50,625 Net worth (ex-pref capital) 14,73,706 16,13,875 17,98,890 20,17,721 21,58,778 Preference capital 0 0 0 0 0 Deposits 1,83,88,524 2,05,29,608 2,33,90,817 2,68,66,222 3,08,58,660 - CASA deposits 74,17,936 80,95,558 92,13,629 1,05,61,081 1,21,06,153 - Term deposits 1,09,70,588 1,24,34,050 1,41,77,188 1,63,05,141 1,87,52,507 Borrowings (+sub-ord bonds) 22,37,597 24,46,640 26,54,236 28,88,656 31,54,410 Other liabilities & provisions 18,10,899 23,56,011 26,37,328 29,56,311 33,18,269 Total Equity & Liabilities 2,39,59,816 2,70,01,106 3,05,40,857 3,47,93,574 3,95,60,365 11 February 2016 Page 6 of 9
RESEARCH TEAM ANALYST SECTOR EMAIL TELEPHONE Mihir Jhaveri Auto, Auto Ancillaries, Cement, Logistics mihir.jhaveri@religare.com +91 22 6766 3459 Siddharth Vora Auto, Auto Ancillaries, Cement, Logistics siddharth.vora@religare.com +91 22 6766 3435 Misal Singh Capital Goods, Infrastructure, Utilities misal.singh@religare.com +91 22 6766 3466 Prashant Tiwari Capital Goods, Infrastructure, Utilities prashant.tiwari@religare.com +91 22 6766 3485 Premal Kamdar Consumer premal.kamdar@religare.com +91 22 6766 3469 Rohit Ahuja Energy ahuja.rohit@religare.com +91 22 6766 3437 Parag Jariwala, CFA Financials parag.jariwala@religare.com +91 22 6766 3442 Vikesh Mehta Financials vikesh.mehta@religare.com +91 22 6766 3474 Rumit Dugar IT, Telecom, Media rumit.dugar@religare.com +91 22 6766 3444 Saumya Shrivastava IT, Telecom, Media saumya.shrivastava@religare.com +91 22 6766 3445 Pritesh Jani Metals pritesh.jani@religare.com +91 22 6766 3467 Arun Baid Mid-caps arun.baid@religare.com +91 22 6766 3446 Praful Bohra Pharmaceuticals praful.bohra@religare.com +91 22 6766 3463 Aarti Rao Pharmaceuticals aarti.rao@religare.com +91 22 6766 3436 Arun Aggarwal Real Estate arun.aggarwal@religare.com +91 22 6766 3440 Jay Shankar Economics & Strategy shankar.jay@religare.com +91 11 3912 5109 Rahul Agrawal Economics & Strategy ag.rahul@religare.com +91 22 6766 3433 11 February 2016 Page 7 of 9
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