The Impact of an Earthquake in Canada Serge Corbeil Government Relations Manager Western & Pacific 50 years as national association home, car, business insurance Industry & consumer issues Consumer resource, outreach Data, investigations Public policy About IBC 1
EQ Impact Study Background Natural Resources Canada predicts that within the next 50 years there is a 30% chance of a significant subduction quake in BC and a 5% to 15% chance of a major earthquake in QC What would the associated costs be? Background In 1992 Munich Re estimated losses from hypothetical 6.5M earthquake in BC: $20B to $46B (inflation adj), equivalent to a 1.2%-2.7% of GDP No estimates for QC EQ Impact Study Objective of study to obtain detailed description of the impact of a major EQ, including estimates of insured and economic losses in BC and QC Study accounted for modelling developments, recent advances in geo-science growth in population, property values and urban agglomeration 2
EQ Impact Study Disaster Risk Management Risk Assessment Financial Management Risk Reduction 3
NOT A PREDICTION CHOSEN SCIENTIFICALLY What does it tell us? 4
Western Scenario Western Scenario Whistler Kamloops Nanaimo Victoria Vancouver Surrey Kelowna 5
Western Scenario Whistler Kamloops Nanaimo Victoria Vancouver Surrey Kelowna Western Scenario Liquefaction Vancouver Coquitlam Burnaby Richmond Surrey Delta Maple Ridge Abbotsford Liquefaction Hazard Low Moderate High Major Roads 6
Western Scenario Liquefaction Western Scenario Tsunami 1 12 Nanaimo Vancouver Surrey Victoria 7
Western Scenario Whistler Kamloops Nanaimo Victoria Vancouver Surrey Kelowna Western Scenario 8
Total (un)insured losses Total Economic Cost $74B+ Total Insured Losses $20B West Total Insured Property Losses Infrastructure Losses 0.2% 14.6% 15.7% 30.6% 12.0% 29.5% 56.0% 5.9% 0.1 13.8% 16.8% 4.9% Building Contents Direct BI Transportation-Roads Airport Pipeline-oil Pipeline-Gas Telecom Transportation-Railways Port Pipeline-water Electrical transmission 9
Summary of Losses West Direct and Indirect Loss Peril Property Infrastructure Public Assets Total Shake 48,639 1,044 1,333 51,016 Tsunami 4,208 91 65 4,364 Fire Following 519 0 14 534 Liquefaction and Landslide 5,250 753 83 6,086 Total Direct Loss 58,617 1,888 1,495 62,000 Indirect Impact 12,744 Total Direct and Indirect Loss 74,744 Insured Loss Shake 17,078 Tsunami 1,117 Fire Following 337 Liquefaction and Landslide 1,899 Total Insured Loss 20,431 All figures are in millions and include demand surge, or post event inflation. Eastern Scenario 10
Eastern Scenario Quebec City Lévis Trois-Rivières Eastern Scenario 11
Eastern Scenario Quebec City Lévis Total (un)insured losses Total Economic Cost $60B+ Total Insured Losses $12B 12
East Total Insured Property Losses Infrastructure Losses 0.2% 19.2% 25.8% 30.6% 50.2% 49.3% 7.2% 2.0% 0.6% 5.9% 9. Building Contents Direct BI Transportation-Roads Airport Pipeline-oil Pipeline-Gas Telecom Transportation-Railways Port Pipeline-water Electrical transmission Summary of Losses - East Direct and Indirect Loss Peril Property Infrastructure Public Assets Total Shake 44,915 1,891 1,354 48,159 Fire Following 706 0 19 726 Liquefaction and Landslide 302 67 5 374 Total Direct Loss 45,922 1,958 1,378 49,259 Indirect Impact 11,336 Total Direct and Indirect Loss 60,595 Insured Loss Shake 11,543 Fire Following 628 Liquefaction and Landslide 56 Total Insured Loss 12,228 All figures are in millions and include demand surge, or post event inflation. 13
The Impact of an Earthquake in Canada The Good News 20% Filled knowledge gap Un-modeled risks not as bad Risk mitigation works 14
Most concerning Major earthquake dwarfs other Nat Cats Most Canadians not prepared What if it s a bigger quake? 15
Research on model for addressing financial impact Key Findings Internationally, there are 5 models for government participation and risk-sharing Penetration rates vary across all models, suggesting that other factors are also at play in determining EQ insurance take-up Price is typically too high and EQ risk is typically perceived to be too remote (even in high-risk areas) Perception that government will provide financial relief and bail out to affected EQ victims, even for those without any EQ insurance EQ coverage is typically lower where government has no financial role Research on model for addressing financial impact Key Findings Continuum of possible risk-sharing models Gov nt Role Extent of Intervention/Contribution EQ Coverage Primary Insurer Reinsurer of Last Resort Backstop Liquidity Provider Guarantor No Role in Insurance Provides insurance directly and responds to claims Protects insurance sector through reinsurance facility Pre-arranged contingent loan facility for insurers incurring extraordinary pay-out burdens Guarantees that any pool or fund for catastrophic risks will meet all of its obligations Disaster relief only Spain: high New Zealand: high France: high Japan: low Australia: high France: high Canada: low Italy: low * Low coverage in Japan mainly due to cultural reasons and social expectations of government bail out 16
What do British Columbians Think? Key findings Most British Columbians not prepared for major EQ Public expectations very high for governments and insurers Gap between public understanding and expectations 17
Public perception of EQ risk Low Risk, 28% Very low risk, 18% Low risk, 10% British Columbia Don t know, 2% Very high risk, 28% High Risk, 52% Neither high nor low risk, 18% High risk, 24% Lower Mainland/Vancouver Island and Coast Low Risk, 15% Very low risk, 7% Low risk, 8% Don t know, 2% Neither high nor low risk, 18% Very high risk, 35% High Risk, 64% High risk, 29% Knowledge of what to do if earthquake strikes: Residents of high-risk areas British Columbia Excellent Good Fair Poor Very poor Don't know Refused 2% < 13% 15% 30% 38% 53% 15% Lower Mainland/Vancouver Island and Coast Excellent Good Fair Poor Very poor Don't know Refused 2% < 13% 15% 29% 39% 54% 15% 18
Awareness of what can be done to prepare for earthquake: Residents of high-risk areas British Columbia Ensure you have an emergency kit/supplies Get informed/be aware Plan and practise evacuation Learn/practice what to do/drop, cover, hold on Know the safe and dangerous places in your home Ensure you have earthquake insurance coverage Be prepared Quake-proof your home Government/communities should inform public Know where to go/meet Earthquake building codes/stronger buildings Ensure you have an evacuation pack Have list of emergency phone numbers Listen to authorities/follow instructions Teach children what to do in event of earthquake Gvt/communities should have emergency response plans ready Move out of earthquake prone area Other Nothing/not much Don t know Refused 7% 7% 7% 5% 5% 4% 4% 2% 2% 4% 3% 0% 14% 12% 1 12% 47% Availability of information about how to prepare for earthquake: Residents of high-risk areas British Columbia Lower Mainland/ Vancouver Island and Coast Don t know 2% More than enough 23% Not enough 37% More than enough 25% Not enough 33% Don t Know 2% Enough 38% Enough 40% 19
Who would pay to rebuild own home? After extensive damage from shaking British Columbia Insurance company Me/my immediate family Provincial government Federal government Municipal government Landlord/Owner Governments (in general) No one - would not re-build Charities/Aid organizations Condo Corporation Relatives/friends/acquaintances Other Don't know 8% 6% 2% < 3% 8% 18% 16% 24% 65% Lower Mainland/Vancouver Island and Coast Insurance company Me/my immediate family Provincial government Federal government Local/municipal/city government Landlord/Owner Governments (in general) Charities/Aid organizations No one - would not rebuild Condo Corporation Other Don t know 7% 6% 3% 2% 2% 7% 23% 19% 17% 68% Ever considered buying earthquake coverage: Residents of high-risk areas British Columbia Lower Mainland/ Vancouver Island and Coast Yes 28% No 7 Yes 47% No 5 Don't know Don't know * Among the 34% (BC) of respondents without earthquake coverage 20
Reasons for not buying earthquake coverage: British Columbia Residents of high-risk areas Mean (1-10) Felt an earthquake was unlikely 43% 14% 15% 8% 20% 6.6 The price 19% 13% 15% 8% 3 12% 2% 4.9 The deductible 16% 1 2 1 32% 8% 4.6 Did not know earthquake coverage was available 23% 8% 1 10% 44% 3% 4.5 Thought earthquake damage would be covered by basic home insurance policy 12% 12% 19% 1 42% 4% 4.0 Felt if an earthquake occurred, federal government would step in to cover damage 8% 12% 20% 12% 45% 3% 3.8 Can afford to pay for damage yourself 14% 8% 13% 13% 47% 4% 3.8 Felt if an earthquake occurred, provincial governments would step in to cover damage Felt if an earthquake occurred, municipal government would step in to cover damage areas 6% 6% 13% 8% 15% 17% 14% 15% 45% 54% 3% 3% 3.7 3.2 Very influential (10,9) Influential (8,7) Somewhat influential (6,5) Not too influential (4,3) Not at all influential (2,1) Don't know Refused * Among the 34% (BC) of respondents without earthquake coverage Reasons for not buying earthquake coverage: Lower Mainland/Vancouver Island and Coast Residents of high-risk areas Mean (1-10) The price 23% 13% 19% 5% 2 15% 3% 5.7 Felt an earthquake was unlikely 23% 14% 24% 12% 26% 5.3 The deductible 17% 14% 19% 10% 3 9% 4.9 Did not know earthquake coverage was available 24% 6% 14% 9% 4 4% 4.6 Thought earthquake damage would be covered by basic home insurance policy 1 18% 15% 9% 4 4% 4.3 Felt if an earthquake occurred, federal government would step in to cover damage Felt if an earthquake occurred, provincial governments would step in to cover damage 9% 5% 13% 18% 23% 20% 9% 13% 43% 4 3% 3% 4.0 4.0 Can afford to pay for damage yourself 12% 12% 15% 13% 44% 4% 3.9 Felt if an earthquake occurred, municipal government would step in to cover damage areas 8% 1 17% 1 50% 3% 3.6 Very influential (10,9) Influential (8,7) Somewhat influential (6,5) Not too influential (4,3) Not at all influential (2,1) Don't know Refused * Among the 34% (BC) of respondents without earthquake coverage 21
What s next? Continued outreach to stakeholders Updating the poll EQ Panel at IBABC Conference (May 16) IBC EQ Symposium in Vancouver (October 15) Thank you! 22