rstaurants and bars rport dcmbr 2013
introduction Wlcom to th latst dition of our rviw of th rstaurant and bar sctor. It has bn a yar sinc our last rport, and 2013 has dfinitly bn th yar whn our prdictd ris in dal volums finally happnd, which togthr with th rturn of IPOs to th sctor bods vry wll for th financial strngth of Rstaurant and Bar businsss in th UK. A vry strong yar of trading from most in th sctor, togthr with th long awaitd rturn of consumr confidnc hav rally kick startd th markt and th sctor has finally rgaind th ground lost during th rcssion. In this issu, alongsid th rgular Boardroom Agnda covring th stat of th nation and th conomic nvironmnt, w tak a closr look at that incras in dal activity, and what has attractd BGF to th sctor in particular. W also tak a look at som advic on xpanding your brand intrnationally, as wll as considring th way in which th worlds of hotlirs and rstauraturs ar ovrlapping mor and mor ths days. Finally w hav gazd into our crystal ball and prsnt our Top 10 prdictions for 2014. W hop you will find ths articls both intrsting and stimulating for your businss. Happy rading! Boardroom Agnda M&A Updat: Our prdiction provd right Expanding rstaurant brands intrnationally Th Growth Dilmma Hotls: A tast of somthing diffrnt Our top 10 prdictions for 2014 01 04 07 09 11 15 DAVID CAMPBELL Partnr, Had of Rstaurants and Bars, BDO LLP t: +44 (0)20 7893 3610 : david.campbll@bdo.co.uk
01 Rstaurants and Bars Rport Dcmbr 2013 BOARDROOM AGENDA Th UK conomy has obviously had a tough fiv yars. Many cashstrappd consumrs rind in thir discrtionary spnding and whilst ating and drinking out hav provd rmarkably rsilint, oprators hav clarly facd a vry challnging nvironmnt. But aftr th rcnt strong quartr things may at last b looking up. Frsh confidnc in th conomy Th monstrous hangovr from th 2008 financial crisis may at last b fading, with 0.8% growth in GDP ovr th third quartr of 2013. Not only was July-Sptmbr th bst quartrly prformanc sinc 2010, but it built on th 0.7% growth that w saw in Q2. This has promptd a U-turn from th IMF, which accusd Gorg Osborn of playing with fir with his austrity programm. Now th IMF forcasts GDP growth of 1.4% for th yar, doubl its prdiction back in April. All th signs indicat a rcovry that is gathring pac, and w should s growth acclrat through th final quartr of 2013. Howvr, vn as it stabiliss, th UK conomy is still at risk from th global markts, and a shock from Europ or Asia may hindr th rturn to prosprity. Nvrthlss ths risks ar slowly rcding, with a rbound xpctd in Asia and mrging Europ. It is Wstrn Europ that still poss th gratst thrat, though th tid may hav turnd thr too, with growth xpctd ovr th nxt two to thr yars. Th upturn is bing flt across a varity of sctors. Rtail sals, invstmnt spnding and nt xports ar all up, and th BDO businss trnds survy showd a stady rcovry for manufacturing and srvics. What s mor, consumr confidnc is at its strongst sinc Novmbr 2007, and it is many yars sinc businss confidnc was so high. Quit simply, th conomy has got its spark back. Progrss is a bit lss upbat for inflation. Th consumr pric indx currntly stands 0.7% abov th 2% targt st for 2013 by th Montary Policy Committ, though th outlook has improvd a littl. Hiks in utility prics rmain th largst inflationary prssur, with food and ful prics also xpctd to ris. Th labour markt continus to post strong mploymnt growth, albit with fw signs of an imminnt rduction of unmploymnt (currntly 7.7%). Th strong figurs com largly from falling lvls of undrmploymnt, as many mployrs squz mor out of xisting workrs rathr than hiring mor. This lack of ral wag inflation is though a drag on th consumr that may yt hold back a ral rsurgnc in consumr spnding wag inflation still lags cost inflation and until this rvrss consumrs will hav rducd spnding powr month on month, rgardlss of how confidnt thy may b fling about th futur. GDP Growth Quartr-On-Quartr 2007-2013 Unmploymnt, Earnings, Inflation 2007-2013 Growth (%) 2 Unmploymnt rat (%) CPI inflation 9 unmploymnt Earnings / Inflation growth (%) 4 0-1 -2 7 arnings 5 3 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2 0-2 Sourc: ONS Sourc: ONS
Dcmbr 2013 Rstaurants and Bars Rport 02 bdo opinion Th UK appars firmly on th road to rcovry, but ral risks rmain. Businsss should not assum thy will simply b abl to rid a nw wav of consumr spnding. Th rality of th mattr is that GDP is still 2% blow pr-2008 lvls, and with inflation still outstripping wag growth, consumrs continu to hav lss mony in thir pockts than thy did 12 months ago. As for th much talkd-about strngth in th housing markt, this should b tratd with caution. Th ris in hous prics is by no mans uniform across th country, with th North and Midlands sing static prics at bst, whil thy continu to fall in Wals and Northrn Irland. Th apparnt boom is ntirly drivn by growth in th South, particularly London, whr intrnational proprty dmand has drivn doubl digit growth. Th govrnmnt s Hlp to Buy schm has givn th markt a shot in th arm, but at th risk of causing a housing markt bubbl if issus on th supply sid ar not addrssd. Thr is also a ral dangr of a rtrnchmnt in consumr spnding whn intrst rats vntually ris and mak mortgag paymnts mor xpnsiv, which may happn soonr than w would lik. Trading picks up Trading conditions hav undoubtdly improvd in 2013, with both total sals and lik-for-liks dmonstrating rlativly robust growth ovr th past six months. During th conomic downturn many consumrs chos ithr to cut spnding on ating out compltly or to trad down to chapr altrnativs such as takaways. Th improving consumr climat has hlpd popl bcom lss cost conscious, and thy ar going out mor. Evn though in ral trms consumrs ar no bttr off than thy wr 12 months ago, avrag spnd pr had and rstaurant patronag ar up. Th UK consumr has nvr put up with poor customr srvic, but in ths uncrtain tims many oprators hav chosn to invst mor in providing quality food at affordabl prics. This valu for mony has bn a ky drivr in bringing som of th volum back into th markt but it rmains crucial to giv xcllnt customr srvic. Tchnology has rally hlpd to invigorat this sctor, with th liks of Squar Mal and Top Tabl offring oprators bttr accss to consumrs, albit at th xpns of incrasd comptition and cost. Th rsurgnt srvics sctor should hlp to boost dmand at th high-nd of th rstaurant markt, with businss lunchs and clint ntrtainmnt rgaining popularity, particularly in London. Thr is still howvr a strain on profit margins, with th cost of wags, rnt, utilitis and food costs going up, and with no signs of slowing in th futur. But thr is a drop of rlif to b had in th fall of win prics ovr th past fiv yars, thanks to global ovr-supply and strong comptition from Nw World producrs. Businss and Consumr Confidnc 2007-2012 Houshold final consumption across rstaurants, cafs tc 20072012 Confidnc Indx Growth (%) 40 Valu (nominal) Valu (ral) 40 Businss 30 20 20 10 0 0-10 Consumr -20-20 -30-40 -40-50 2007 2008 Sourc: GfK, NOP, ICAEW 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2007 Sourc: ONS 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
03 Rstaurants and Bars Rport Dcmbr 2013 BOARDROOM AGENDA Lgislation still a burdn Th sctor continus to wrstl with an vr-changing tax and lgislativ nvironmnt. Dspit th govrnmnt supposdly championing SMEs, th numbr of altrations in policy man that trading in this sctor is not gtting asir. Employmnt costs hav also risn du to an incras in minimum wag and th introduction of auto nrolmnt pnsion schms for staff, with tak up on ths schms bing highr than many anticipatd. At last a quartr of this sctor s workforc is hird at th minimum wag, so any ris translats into a major hit for rstaurants and bars to tak. Moving onto othr lgislation, th us of lat-night lvis and arly morning rstrictions continus to b hotly contstd, with a numbr of local councils choosing to rjct outright th possibility of futur us. Som far that local businsss could suffr from thir us, which may lad to trad migrating to nighbouring aras. Minimum wag brings mixd fortuns From 1st Octobr, th minimum wag for workrs agd 21 and abov ros 1.9% from 6.19 an hour to 6.31. For thos agd btwn 18 and 20 th hourly rat is incrasing by 5p to 5.03, whil thos agd 16 or 17 will s thir minimum wag incras by 4p to 3.72. Prsonal licncs should thy stay or go? In Sptmbr th govrnmnt launchd a consultation into whthr prsonal licncs should b abolishd. If this wr to happn, licnsing authoritis would b abl to apply rlvant conditions to prmiss licncs whr appropriat. So far th rspons has bn mixd, with opinions dividd as to what ffct this rviw may bring. A numbr of oprators hav suggstd that, although th currnt systm is flawd, a complt ovrhaul may not b th answr. Conclusion Th worst of th rcssion is clarly bhind us, and growth forcasts and xpctations for consumr confidnc and spnding look positiv. Whilst th limitd ris in wag inflation may hold consumrs back a littl in 2014, w rmain confidnt that th sctor is wll placd to njoy its most buoyant yar for som tim. bdo opinion Trading conditions in th rstaurants and bars sctor should improv furthr ovr th coming 12 months. Evn though consumr lisur tim is xpctd to b squzd by a ris in avrag working hours, th dmand for convnint, quality food and drink will grow mor robust. Oprators that succssfully tap into prvailing social trnds with an mphasis on quality and valu ar likly to bnfit in 2014 as consumr confidnc continus to ris. Pub & Rstaurant Sals Growth 2010-2012 Growth (%) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 Sourc: Coffr Pach Businss Trackr 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total Lik for lik
Dcmbr 2013 Rstaurants and Bars Rport 04 M&A Updat: Our prdiction provd right Last Dcmbr w forcast that 2013 would s M&A activity pick up, and th yar duly dlivrd. Thr is a ral sns that th whls of th M&A machin ar starting to turn a littl quickr, and a numbr of high profil transactions hav caught th y of consumrs, oprators and invstors alik as BDO s Kiran Lawton xplains. Th national prss is also starting to sit up and tak not, with a numbr of rports highlighting this rsurgnc in activity, whilst also drawing attntion to privat quity s continuing lov affair with th sctor. Th mnu of big dals Hutton Collins 100m acquisition of Byron is just th latst in th string of high profil transactions that hav takn plac sinc our last rport. Thr had bn considrabl intrst in th burgr chain and its potntial sal for som tim, and a pric that achivd a rportd multipl of 10x run-rat EBITDA will hav dlightd Gondola. Th Byron dal cam hot on th hls of anothr six-figur transaction, that of CBPE s 100m acquisition of Côt. It was widly acknowldgd that th ownrs of th Frnch brassri chain wr considring offrs and, although th sum achivd was blow original rportd xpctations of 125m, it still rprsntd a halthy pric for th 45-strong chain and scurd anothr profitabl xit for srial sctor invstor Richard Caring. Anothr y-catching sal was Risk Capital Partnrs xit of Giraff, which was sold to Tsco in a dal valud at narly 50m, giving Risk a rportd rturn of ight tims thir original valuation. It was no scrt that Risk had bn looking to xit but th buyr cam somwhat from lft fild. Th suprmarkt giant s invstmnt in artisan coff shop concpt Harris + Hool was prhaps a sign of things to com, but th Giraff dal still surprisd many who had xpctd a widr sal procss to b run som tim nxt yar. In a busy priod for Luk Johnson s outfit, Risk also invstd in multicuisin bufft concpt Rd Hot World Bufft. Othr high profil dals that grabbd th prss attntion includd Bowmark Capital s backing of Drak & Morgan in a 30m dal, Graphit Capital s invstmnt in prmium stak concpt Hawksmoor, and LDC s 50M buy-out of high nd rstaurant group D&D London. D&D: D&D has a collction of uniqu cntral London sits such as Blubird, Skylon and Coq d Argnt which hav dmonstratd trmndous rsilinc ovr many yars. This providd comfort that ths ar sits which hav an nduring rlvanc in th London fin dining markt. Brti Aykroyd LDC In othr dals, Bringa wrappd up an xit from Tossd by slling to th managmnt tam (backd by a privat invstor), whil Calculus Capital s backing of Bnito s Hat showd that fundrs ar still kn on Mxican food. Pipr Privat Equity followd its rcnt invstmnts in B at On and Loungrs with 6m of funding to hlp roll out Caribban concpt Turtl Bay, whil lisur spcialists Kings Park Capital invstd in juic and smoothi oprator Ful Juic Bars and mor rcntly in pubs with rooms oprator Inn Collction. Around th sam tim as th KPC s Ful dal, Th Businss Growth Fund put mony into anothr smoothi concpt: Richard O Sullivan s Boost Juic Bars. As notd latr in this rport, BGF dmonstratd mor fondnss for th sctor with its invstmnt in Camino, which will sit alongsid portfolio companis Barburrito, Pyton & Byrn and War Inns. In th pub sctor, Crbrus s 200m purchas of Admiral Tavrns caught th attntion and providd a wlcom xit for Lloyds Bank. At th othr nd of th scal, a 2.7m invstmnt in Tim Bacon and Jrmy Robrts s Nw World Pub Company (ownr of th Oast Hous and Botanist brands) was of intrst, not last bcaus it was th first invstmnt through Hub Capital s F&B Fund, th ti-up btwn Paul Campbll and LDC.
05 Rstaurants and Bars Rport Dcmbr 2013 M&A Updat: Our prdiction provd right Why privat quity lovs wining and dining A busy priod for M&A in th rstaurants and bars sctor has bn particularly sizzling for quity invstors. Clarly, thr ar big attractions to rstaurants and bars that go byond thm bing nic placs for financirs to socialis. Bowmark partnr Ron Parson xplains a bit mor: W and othr privat quity playrs lik th rstaurants and bars sctor bcaus th businsss ar in what has provn to b a rsilint part of th consumr markt; thy ar highly scalabl and diffrntiation is not a function of siz. As a rsult you can find rlativly young businsss that with a strong managmnt tam can dlivr suprior rturns. That is not to say that invstmnts ar straightforward. As Ptr Kmp- Wlch of consumr spcialists Pipr points out: Invstors still nd to b wary. Whil thr has bn an uptick in dal activity and som halthy multipls bing paid, thr is prhaps a risk ovr ovr-xubranc. Barrirs to ntry ar low, pubs ar raising thir gam and thr ar an incrasing numbr of concpts taking spac in th markt. Oprators nd to b mindful of this; only th bst concpts and managmnt tams will attract invstmnt. Drak and Morgan: Th managmnt tam hav dvlopd a sustainabl proposition that is highly appaling to customrs and landlords alik. Togthr with th tam, w bliv w can build a rally significant businss ovr th nxt four to fiv yars that has a lot of room for furthr growth byond that. Ron Parson Bowmark Capital Rd Hot World Bufft: W bliv th bufft dining spac to b on of th fastst growing sgmnts of th UK s rstaurant markt and that Rd Hot offrs grat choic and grat valu for mony to its customrs in ths challnging tims. W ar looking forward to working with th Foundrs and th widr managmnt tam to hlp thm in thir ambitious growth plans. Luk Johnson Risk Capital Partnrs Invsting in a managmnt tam Succssful concpts ar cash gnrativ and scalabl, so thy lnd thmslvs to th privat quity modl. Howvr, thr is mor to an invstmnt than a diffrntiatd concpt and roll-out potntial. As Parson and Kmp-Wlch point out, invstors ar backing th managmnt tam to dlivr that potntial. Jami Tillman of Kings Park Capital viws it as follows: W look to back managmnt tams, and particularly thos whr our xprtis and contacts can hlp thm acclrat thir growth plans. As with our othr invstmnt in th QSR sctor, Abokado, in Ful w wr attractd by an ntrprnur who has built a succssful and consistnt modl with substantial rollout potntial. LDC s Brti Aykroyd agrs that th managmnt tam is ky. Rfrring to th D&D dal, h said: W hav partnrd with two of th bst rstauraturs in London, who hav an nviabl track-rcord of crating xciting nw concpts. Similarly, Omar Kayat of Graphit Capital mphasiss th importanc of a strong managmnt tam: W ar kn on th sctor and hav supportd a numbr of rstaurant and lisur businsss in th past, with a common thm bing that w always look to back bst in class managmnt tams. Turtl Bay: W spnt a lot of tim talking to Turtl Bay s customrs in advanc of invsting and wr dlightd to discovr that our rsarch supportd our initial assssmnt; that Turtl Bay offrs somthing diffrnt in a comptitiv marktplac. This, along with th managmnt tam s track rcord in th sctor, gav us th confidnc to invst and w r vry xcitd about hlping th tam dvlop th concpt furthr. Ptr Kmp-Wlch Pipr Privat Equity
Dcmbr 2013 Rstaurants and Bars Rport 06 Exit stratgis Anothr rason quity houss hav a tast for this sctor is th numbr of viabl xit routs. Savvy invstors put mony into concpts whr growth potntial gos byond a singl invstmnt priod, maning that it is vry common for on privat quity hous to sll to anothr. Howvr, whil th scondary / trtiary (tc) buyout clarly rmains an option, our rcnt xprinc suggsts quity houss ar bcoming lss rliant on it as th only viabl xit rout. Looking at Tsco s foray into casual dining, it is too arly to say whthr othr suprmarkt chains could follow suit. Nvrthlss, th Giraff dal is on transaction that has dmonstratd that th buyr pool, and thrfor xit routs for rstaurant and bar group ownrs, is prhaps widr than on might think. This fact will not hav bn lost on privat quity invstors. Furthrmor, as th rcnt Eclctic IPO showd, thr is a growing willingnss to considr th us of capital markts to rais financ and/ or provid an xit for invstors. Risk Capital s Luk Johnson rcntly suggstd thr was scop for 6 to 10 rstaurant companis to go public in th nxt 6 to 18 months. W xpct mor companis in th sctor to follow Eclctic in th yar ahad. Ful Juic Bars: With its shopping cntr locations and frshly mad smoothis and juics, Ful is wll positiond to bnfit from th long-trm consumr trnd towards halthy ating and drinking, as wll as th shift of consumrs away from th high strt to shopping malls. Jami Tillman Kings Park Capital Looking forward Bn Rdmond of Risk ss th sctor continuing to b an attractiv on for invstors: Th long trm trnds of ating out rmain clar, with th rcssion r-nforcing th importanc of valu for mony to th consumr at th lowr nd, and th rlativ rsilinc of fin dining at th highr nd. Ptr Kmp-Wlch suggsts th sctor s rsilinc ovr th last fw yars highlights th fact it is a good on to invst in: Th industry has bn thoroughly strss-tstd through th rcssion and has mt th challng had on, giving invstors comfort that, vn in tough conomic tims, rstaurant and bar businsss can b succssful. Thr is a cultur of crativ innovation and a dpth of skills in th sctor that nsur that will rmain th cas, and also mak it an intrsting and xciting on for invstors lik us to b involvd in. Hawksmoor: In Hawksmoor w hav invstd in a prmium rstaurant concpt that has don wll during difficult conomic tims. W considr it to b th bst in its fild and it s run by an xcllnt tam that gnrats vry good rturns on invstmnt. W ar looking forward to hlping th businss continu its roll-out in London and byond. Omar Kayat Graphit Capital Partnrs Th BDO viw W xpct dal activity to continu, with privat quity rmaining at th hart of things. Thr ar a significant numbr of pub and rstaurant groups in th hands of privat quity, som of which hav bn hld in portfolio for a longr priod of tim than would hav bn nvisagd whn thos houss originally invstd. As such, it is likly som will mak movs to ralis thos assts; th dal activity (and th dcnt multipls bing paid) ovr th last 12 months has givn invstors rnwd confidnc in th markt, both as a sllr and a buyr. This optimism should pav th way for furthr sctor transactions, and w ar confidnt that th capital markts will play an activ part in that as mor rstaurant and bar businsss find that an IPO can giv an attractiv valuation from a radily availabl sourc of financ. Ron Parson of Bowmark agrs th sctor will rmain an attractiv on for invstors. I bliv thr will b a good lvl of dal activity in th sctor ovr th nxt 12 to 18 months. Rcognition that th sctor has provn mor rsilint than many had xpctd mans bank dbt is availabl for th bst businsss. I xpct a numbr of businsss that hav grown ovr th last fiv yars will now b sking to go to th nxt stag of dvlopmnt. Th outlook for 2014 crtainly whts th apptit. Exciting, diffrntiatd concpts ar mrging and looking to xpand, PE portfolio companis ar sking nw partnrs to fund th nxt stag of thir growth and xit routs ar opning up. Thr is mor capital availabl, gratr apptit from buyrs and improving consumr confidnc. Th tabl is st for anothr yar of buoyant M&A activity in th sctor. Kiran Lawton Assistant Dirctor, Corporat Financ, BDO LLP t: +44 (0)161 817 7575 : kiran.lawton@bdo.co.uk
07 Rstaurants and Bars Rport Dcmbr 2013 Expanding rstaurant brands intrnationally Asia Brand Partnrs oprat rstaurants and rtail businsss across Asia as a franchis or joint vntur partnr and maks it asy for grat brands to st up in th growth markts of Asia. Hr thy giv us a viw of th ky things to b considrd for succss. Incrdibl as it might hav smd in th 1970s, th UK now has on of th world s grat concntrations of high calibr rstaurant brands. Th UK and London in particular has bcom a Mcca for food and bvrag, particularly in th casual dining and fast casual sctors. Th scn is vibrant and innovativ, and rmains attractiv to customrs and invstors alik. This of cours givs brand ownrs th opportunity to xplor intrnational xpansion. Notwithstanding hard conomic tims in th Wst, most of th world is xprincing an unparallld consumr boom, and in many markts th dmand for brandd rstaurants far xcds supply. Stting up in ths markts can b vry tmpting, particularly givn th high quity multipls in BRICs and N11 countris, not to mntion th potntial to incras hom markt valuations. Howvr, th road to succss is littrd with brokn drams. Th plain truth is that intrnational dvlopmnt is highly attractiv but also highly risky. Why? Bcaus of th many variabls. Which markt? Partnr or dirct? Equity or franchis? Which partnr? Whr to start? How to xcut? How to structur? How to xit? Succssful markt-ntry and dvlopmnt is a dirct function of how wll brands manag ths variabls. But it s staggring how many of th factors ar ignord or poorly managd. This happns for a rang of rasons. Most importantly, srious intrnational dvlopmnt taks tim, is xpnsiv and rquirs matrial managmnt focus. Whn trading in th UK is tough and capital scarc, brands may look to cut cornrs through franchising, slcting apparntly asy markts or simply by cutting cornrs on th procss. In th short trm it can b smingly straightforward to study a markt, find a partnr, do a dal. It can look as if you hav succdd. But th problms tnd to st in furthr down th track. Thr ar howvr svral oprators who hav shown that intrnational dvlopmnt can b managd, so long as thr is rigour and attntion to dtail. PizzaExprss, for xampl, has invstd in a systmatic approach to markt-ntry and has dvlopd a numbr of succssful intrnational platforms, particularly in Hong Kong, India, and Shanghai, as wll as in high potntial markts such as Indonsia. For India, PizzaExprss assmbld a multi-disciplinary tam of in-hous xprts and xtrnal advisrs. Thn ovr a 12 month priod it dvlopd a dtaild businss plan, mt mor than 50 potntial partnrs and struck a joint vntur with on of India s most rspctd businss houss, Bharti (who also hav partnrships with Walmart and Dl Mont). Th first sit opnd in Dcmbr 2012 to rav rviws, and a piplin of nw sits is plannd to crat a scal businss. Why did thy choos India? Wll, Indians lov pizza and othr Italian food, and th Domino s licns s quity trads at an xtraordinary 30x EBITDA on th Mumbai stock xchang. Consumrs nd grat quality brandd offrs and financial rturns (ROCE and IRR) ar now comparabl with th UK, and indd oftn gratr. Furthrmor, th country is only a fraction of th way to bing fully dvlopd. To this xtnt, invstors can s th mans to gain suprior rturns and lav matrial upsid for downstram acquirrs. But for vry Pizza Exprss, Yum!, Din Tai Fung and Costa Coff, thr ar fiv xampls of sub-optimal intrnational dvlopmnt. How can brands maximis thir chancs of succss? W hav put togthr our guid to wapons-grad markt ntry:
Dcmbr 2013 Rstaurants and Bars Rport 08 gt clar on th ov r all r atio nal Why is th br and going ov contribution rsas? For q? To tst th uity? For rv watrs? Prt xpansion (r nu -a-mangr st vnu), thn artd with a co ns and now tak ol id fa at st d (cost manag s a smart an mnt) d dlibrat markt-ntr approach to y (tst mark t and us q uity). gt th right popl on th job Most markt dvlopmnt projcts that fail tnd to do so bcaus th wrong popl gt involvd. Who rally knows what thy r doing? (as opposd to who fancis a bit of flying around?). Do thy hav th tim? Can thy lvrag th ncssary contacts and ntwork? ths ar usually ky to succss. Do thy command th ar of invstors? If you can t find th right partnr, mov on. Admittdly, this can b asir said than don, so somon in th organisation nds to hav th prmission to say No vn at th most advancd stag of th procss. Bad partnrs can dstroy valu and mak it hardr in othr markts. Rmmbr you ar playing a long gam. markt(s) to t it can b tough vious nough, bu os pr th s aly an This may sm ob systm to gh ou or th a d is an d n u n lk to anyo gt right. What yo your tim, and ta k Ta. ts th k on ar m ar gtting cl and cons of targt is a trad-off so c oi ak m ch t d k An ar l. m ca y iti -havs ) is cr vryon. Evr -to ic n s su r (v critria rports that ar priority slction ta, not th onlin da nt rr cu us u sur yo t. usually out of da gt on th ground Obvious? W hav lost count of th numbr of brands who visit for 48 hours hr and thr, thn fly off hom. And whn on th ground, gt clos to th action. Grab mnus, buttonhol customrs, rad th local rviws, try vrything, walk th strts. Build your own pictur of th markt don t rly on consultants and spradshts, for you will procd at your pril. do it yourslf Frankly, partnrships ar oftn th prob lm. If you can us your own capital, hir local managm nt and kp control, thn do so. Finding and managing part nrs can tak just as long and ultimatly cost you far mor than goin g it alon. Th list of grat food and bvrag brands in disput with thir partnrs is vry long. tional issus fac up to th big opra most mrging and growth At a consumr dmand lvl, to issus aris usually in rlation markts ar attractiv. Th big and kt, mar to pric to th ability accssing affordabl ral-stat, arly an at s rir bar s th of l lv th building th tam. Gt clar on thir don y v of Hong Kong until th stag. Evryon lovs th ida s first round of landlord mting On of th issus with th topic is that many popl ar kn to hav a go at intrnational dvlopmnt, or considr thmslvs (prhaps mistaknly) as xprts on givn markts. It s a bit lik th phnomnon of vryon claiming to b a rstaurant xprt, xcpt th consquncs in this cas can b vry, vry costly. pick th right it s not partnr or bust if partnring, b a makr not a takr To find th bst partnrs, you nd th bst procss. This starts with having your own clar businss cas and bing abl to sll th bnfits of your brand. Othr than McDonald s or Starbucks and a fw lucky othrs, slling is a must. Don t assum confidnt businsss in growth markts will b asily imprssd. Th good ons usually hav many partnr approachs a month. gt your bst popl on th cas If you r srious about going intrnational, it nds your A Tam. Ths popl nd to b ddicatd to th task. Ovr tim build th kind of xprtis that Yum! or McDonald s hav in-hous but do it your way, and don t copy modls that may b bttr suitd to larg US listd companis. localis th bu sinss not th product Unlss you hav a Fortun 500 ba you ll targt vry lanc sht, it s un arly-stag and hi likly ghly disorganisd product customisa markts whr tion is a must. St ick to your guns but think and ac on th product t as if you wr a grat local busin hav crackd Indi ss. GE and Lv a bcaus thy fig r urd this out arly. Thr hav nvr bn so many intrnational opportunitis for good brands. In fact thr ar too many. What s ndd is good prp, local xprinc and prsistnc in fact, th sam skills and attributs you find in grat chfs. Grat F&B brands don t tak shortcuts in th kitchn and thy shouldn t tak thm intrnationally. By going about it in th right way, th UK can conqur th world in F&B and crat xcptional valu for sharholdrs as wll as som familiar dstinations for us wary travllrs. vntur a joint is ) nrs, t P ion Par s (AB il r m r n t r a nd V rs rand P iats a invsto Asia B Assoc rs and M is v IM ia d d n ts a ina, In btw g mark r Ch Grat mrgin at s s o r g c both in gr tions a in hlp a t r r ir p p o h with as t P is x arkts ia. AB m s w A n d an d in succ V brands c or J n c li is, om.c p b franch ia.as r. www partn Jaspr Rid & Marcus Shadbolt Asia Brand Partnrs Europ t: +44 (0)207 208 1484 : nquiris@asiabp.com
09 Rstaurants and Bars Rport Dcmbr 2013 Th growth dilmma BGF was stablishd in 2011 to hlp Britain s growing smallr and mdium sizd businsss. Thir aim is to rcognis businsss that hav ral potntial and dsir to succd and provid a collaborativ approach to financing growth. BGF hav oftn providd capital to concpts bfor othr invstors and banks would b willing, and hr thy shar som of thir rcnt invstmnts in th sctor and why thy considrd ths good opportunitis. Dspit th talk of doom and gloom on th high strt, th UK s passion for dining out has rarly bn hottr. Nw concpts launch vry month, succssful brands ar looking to grow at pac, and thr is firc comptition for good sits, spcially in London. Th rstaurant sctor offrs normous potntial for growth as tasts and trnds ar constantly changing. Th profil of this markt is such that word of mouth can incras popularity vry quickly and driv growth. It is also a sctor whr thr is vry ral opportunity to tak rgional succsss onto a national stag, and in so doing crat nw jobs. andy grgory Rgional Dirctor, BGF If you ar a strong oprator with a good concpt, it is a grat tim to b in th businss. Mor popl ar ating out mor oftn, and in rcnt yars UK dinrs hav bcom vr mor dmanding. Thy xpct quality, varity and good srvic whrvr thy at, and thy want brands that dlivr on thir promis at th right pric point. Yt xpanding a rstaurant businss rquirs significant invstmnt. And although th broadr climat may fl conduciv to nw opnings, th problm of just how to fund sit rollout hasn t gon away. It may b possibl to financ som additional opnings with cashflow gnratd at xisting outlts, but this is likly to b a slow procss and th rsulting dlay can man missing out on prim sits, or sing comptitors stal a march. Th currnt comptition for prim sits dmonstrats why it is so important to hav th funds to mov quickly. Bank dbt may b a solution, and th chapst option, but it is likly to com with strict prformanc-rlatd covnants and th amount may not b sufficint on its own. Whn unxpctd difficultis ar ncountrd during dvlopmnt, or a nw sit taks longr than xpctd to matur, such covnants can lav a burgoning businss vulnrabl. That is why quity financ can oftn b a bttr answr. It provids th capital that you nd up front, without th xpctation of rpaymnts in th short trm, and bfor any nw invstmnt has bgun to dlivr a profitabl rturn. A growth capital invstor lik BGF will also provid mor than just mony. Th fdback that w gt from businss ownrs suggsts that our partnrship approach, providing counsl whr rquird and sharing xprtis, guidanc and contacts, is just as valuabl to thm as th capital that w injct into thir businsss. BGF has alrady invstd c. 30 million in six lisur and hospitality businsss basd across th UK. Ths businsss ar proving that dspit th difficult conomic climat, it is possibl to prospr and grow with th right businss plan and th support ncssary to undrpin that growth. Common to all th businsss w hav backd is a strong managmnt tam. W only vr tak a minority stak in a businss, so ultimatly it is th managmnt tam abov all that w ar invsting in, and it is that tam that will run th businss. W ar looking for tams with a track rcord, clarity of vision, passion and profound commrcial sns. Succssful scalabl concpts xist at all pric points and in all aras, but thy shar a robust stratgy and a clar undrstanding of thir customr. Th bradth of opportunitis is illustratd by th companis that w hav alrady invstd in. In March 2012, BGF invstd 3.25m in Barburrito, a Mxican rstaurant chain with six outlts in th North of England. Th invstmnt kickstartd a national rollout programm, with Barburrito planning to tripl th numbr of rstaurants that it oprats within four yars. W mad a similar invstmnt in Camino, a group of London tapas bars. Our 3m is allowing th managmnt tam to build furthr brand awarnss and xpand th concpt across a numbr of nw locations. Instad of worrying about cashflow, w now worry about growth, which is a much happir problm to hav. In th past w v dfinitly missd out on opportunitis bcaus w didn t hav th funding to cop with mor than on projct at a tim. olivr pyton Foundr, Pyton and Byrn
Dcmbr 2013 Rstaurants and Bars Rport 10 With BGF, w v bn abl to turn on th hospip, not last bcaus th mony has givn us ral crdibility whn w talk to landlords about scuring lass. W v alrady got 4 nw stors at th final stag of lgal discussions and w xpct to add 10 mor in ach of th nxt 3 yars; w could nvr hav contmplatd that sort of growth prior to this funding. richard o sullivan Foundr, Boost Juic Bars For Barburrito and Camino, as for most of our othr invstmnts, BGF s ability to provid follow-on capital is vry important. Furthrmor, bcaus w invst from our own balanc sht w can also liv up to our claim to b a long trm invstor. BGF can continu to provid capital to build on succss. Boost Juic was launchd in th UK by Richard O Sullivan, a srial ntrprnur with a track rcord that includs th dvlopmnt of Milli s Cookis. W hav invstd 2.5m to dramatically acclrat rollout of th chain, capitalising on consumr dmand for halthy food and drink products. As a rsult 10 nw sits ar st to opn in ach of th nxt thr yars. BGF has also backd Pyton and Byrn with an quity invstmnt of 6.25m. Foundr Olivr Pyton rcognisd that h ndd xtrnal funding to ralis his vision for high quality public catring and for a nw chain of spcialist British bakris, in which both parts of th businss would srv customrs incrasing xpctations for quality and srvic whrvr and whnvr thy at out. Howvr, Olivr was dtrmind to continu trading as a family businss rathr than cding control, and BGF s minority stak invstmnt mt that rquirmnt. Finally our 8m invstmnt in Durham-basd War Inns dmonstrats that growth dosn t always com from an innovativ concpt or xotic cuisin. War Inns stratgy of turning round undrprforming pubs is simpl and highly ffctiv, but it dos rquir significant invstmnt. With 8m from BGF and additional invstmnt from an xisting invstor, th pub chain has alrady bn abl to add 11 nw pubs to its 15-strong portfolio. What should now b clar is that thr is no typical BGF invstmnt. Nvrthlss, thr ar som common thms and traits. All of ths businsss could dmonstrat a provn concpt across svral sits and show a strong rturn on capital invstd. Most crucially, vry ntrprnur w hav backd has ambitious plans for th futur and a ralistic roadmap for gtting thr. With BGF s capital and widr support, w bliv that thy ar ach a littl closr to ralising thir aspirations. businss growth fund www.businssgrowthfund.co.uk t: +44 (0) 845 266 8860 : nquiris@bgf.co.uk
11 Rstaurants and Bars Rport Dcmbr 2013 hotls: A tast of somthing diffrnt Somthing big is happning to food and drink in hotls, and it s happning worldwid. Hotls ar looking at thir rstaurants and bars in a nw light. Th food and bvrag dpartmnt has of cours always bn an intgral part of a hotl s opration but now it looks incrasingly pivotal to a hotl s succss as BDO s Govinda Singh xplains. Food and bvrag (F&B) has gon from bing mrly a must hav spac to bing on that, if managd corrctly, could b a major dstination, attraction, and profit gnrator in its own right. What is offrd will of cours dpnd on ach hotl s markt positioning and th facilitis within th building. Som hotls hav substantial mting and function facilitis which distort th pictur as far as our rviw is concrnd, so for th purposs of this articl w hav ignord th confrnc and banquting sid of hotl F&B oprations. Nvrthlss, in broad trms th food and bvrag concpt in hotls is bing rinvntd, givn th hug dvlopmnt of th ating out markt as a whol, spcially in matur markts whr thr is now a plthora of choic. What dos this man for hotls and indd rstauraturs most notably in th UK? Th UK is oftn th guina pig for crativity in F&B, th ky markt in which nw concpts ar tstd vn if thos concpts startd lif lswhr, such as in th USA or th Far East. Exampls hr includ supr foods, th cupcak craz, Amrican BBQ, cocktails and strt food, as wll as th gourmt hamburgr joint (Fiv Guys, Shakshack), th singl and dual dish rstaurant, Bubbldogs, Burgr and Lobstr, Tramshd (chickn and stak) and Dirty Burgr. If it works in th UK, th signs ar good. Facd with a multitud of prssurs th nd to maximis othr rvnu and spac, rising food costs and wags, and th incrasing choic for th discrning palat in city cntr locations hotls hav had to rais thir gam whn it coms to food and drink. Gon ar th days whn a hotlir could just focus on th rooms sid of th businss now, with room occupancy and avrag rats at som of thir highst lvls yt (spcially in London), thr is littl upsid to manouvr. So ownrs must look at othr ways to improv rturns on thir invstmnt.
Dcmbr 2013 Rstaurants and Bars Rport 12 Food trnds in hotls Thr ar som intrsting trnds out thr now. A popular on though of dbatabl impact for hotls so far is th collaboration btwn a hotl and a rnownd chf, such as Hston Blumnthal at th Mandarin Orintal, Marcus Waring at th Rnaissanc St Pancras, or Gordon Ramsy at th Marriott Grosvnor Squar. Admittdly this may work for th upscal and luxury brand hotls, but what about th mid-scal and boutiqu sctors? A possibl answr hr lis in th High Strt coming into hotls, as w hav sn in th prolifration of th big coff shop brands, think Starbucks, Nsprsso and Costa. Hotl rstaurants hav also shown an aptitud for kping up with food fads or th latst dits. Not so long ago frsh, local produc and highquality products wr a novlty now most customrs xpct thm. And th vr-popular cocktail has rcntly hit nw hights of fashion, particularly within hotls, with mor ingrdints, mor xotic varitis of spirits, flavourd syrups and vn ic cubs, and srving is bcoming an art in itslf: how about a touch of liquid nitrogn, with flavourd smok, in an Alic in Wondrland glass? Thy r vn playing with tim: th ris of th digstif cocktail on London mnus mans that cocktail hour can now b aftr dinnr. A rcnt suggstion from th hotl industry is that th trm food and bvrag could mak way for food and fitnss. Thr is a growing trnd and dmand for hotls to hav light and halthy options on mnus for both adults and childrn. Hotls will also nd to think mor about how to catr for th world s aging population, with food and bvrag offrings to rflct th halth rquirmnts of oldr popl, a ky targt markt that will only xpand. Finally, shifting trnds in inbound travl ar bringing nw visitors to UK shors, such as from China and othr mrging markts. Hotls ar alrady rsponding with mor divrs mnu offrings aimd spcifically at ths nw markts, and chfs too ar no doubt honing nw skills!
13 Rstaurants and Bars Rport Dcmbr 2013 hotls: A tast of somthing diffrnt Do hotls bnfit from invsting thir own mony in F&B? History would sm to b against it. A full food and bvrag srvic offring is hugly labour intnsiv and thus not so profitabl as rooms. Indd, many hotls hav tndd to run this dpartmnt at a brak-vn, or vn at a loss to attract gusts (much lik th swimming pool in a city cntr hotl). So is it a bit of a radical ida to suggst that it should actually contribut mor to th bottom lin? Can it b don and is it worth all th hurdls involvd in gtting it right? What do hotl gusts spnd on F&B? Our BDO databas shows us th prformanc of upscal London hotls (xcluding thos proprtis with significant confrnc and banquting facilitis to allow a mor balancd comparison) in trms of annual Food and Bvrag Rvnu pr slpr. W can s that this is varid, with an avrag of 39.35 pr slpr for th hotls sampld; howvr, if on xcluds th svn top prformrs, this drops to 24.53. On intrsting dtail was that th bst prformrs wr ithr in th W1/Knightsbridg ara, or nar to major commutr stations. This is no surpris, giving th high footfall of such locations and th typically upmarkt afflunt clintl. Upscal London hotls food and bvrag PAR trnds 2008-2012 PAR ( 000) Dpatmnt rvnu 50 40% 35% 40 30% 30 25% 20 10 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sourc: GfK, NOP, ICAEW Rvnu PAR Dpt. profit PAR Dpt. profit % of rvnu Within th upscal sampl of hotls analysd, this translats to avrag rvnu of 28,899 pr wk. Excluding th luxury proprtis, som of whom alrady hav a wll stablishd fin-dining xprinc this rducs to circa 18,580 pr wk. For many rstauraturs ths can b considrd good bas numbrs and w all know what th valu of a good brand could potntially do to incras ths numbrs furthr still. So what dos this man for rstauraturs? In this author s opinion, thr is clarly a symbiotic rlationship that could b furthr xplord btwn hotlirs and rstauraturs. Think Tradr Vic s rlationship with Hilton, Gordon Ramsay at th Savoy, and Nobu at th Mtropolitan. A full-srvic hotl nds to provid brakfast, lunch and dinnr to gusts, but this can b within th combination of on or mor rstaurants. A partnring or straight rntal arrangmnt with a food brand is an opportunity for hotls to rnt dad or outlt spac to a rstauratur. This bnfits both partis in a numbr of ways: th hotl is abl to offr a rcognisd fin-dining or altrnativ xprinc, thus nabling it to concntrat on its cor activity, th businss of slling rooms. A sourc of rntal incom provids th hotlir with lss distortion in cash flows, and indd if managd corrctly, can bcom an attraction to th hotl itslf. For th rstauratur, it provids an opportunity to hav an stablishmnt in a good location, which can provid instant visibility, whilst having a bas sourc markt of gusts in th hotl. Having this bas markt in th first instanc immdiatly allows th rstauratur th flxibility to concntrat on what it knows bst, i food and srvic and build on th strong F&B spnding lvls notd abov. On th downsid, accss and branding issus can b a challng for rstauraturs, as can th nd to provid brakfast and occasionally room srvic, not part of thir cor businss. Clarly, th right concpt must fit th right hotl, and issus such as rvnu/profit sharing and accss will nd to b addrssd from th outst, not in hindsight. But clarly this is an opportunity which should b xplord by both sids furthr.
Dcmbr 2013 Rstaurants and Bars Rport 14 A glanc into th crystal ball So w cast our ys towards th futur, and som possibl trnds to look out for. W can xpct to s mor mnu-pairing with cocktails and br, not just win. In th UK this is vry much in its infancy but is gathring pac, thanks to growing nthusiasm such as th rcnt Lt Thr B Br campaign. W should also s hotls furthr dvloping th xisting pop-up rstaurant concpt, which has provd th most popular of th pop-up idas (th othrs including art gallris, shops and salons). It can b a way for a hotl to arn rvnu from othrwis dad spac, particularly during priods of low dmand. Rcnt xampls includ Nobu s prsnc in Claridgs (2012) and th Crustacan Bar on th Trrac of Th Churchill Hotl nar Marbl Arch (Jun 2013). Expct gratr customr customisation of food and drink, too. Although this is mainly bing sn in th rstaurant sctor, thr ar xampls of it crping into hotls. Th most rcnt xampl is th intractiv sushi station at Jumriah Carlton Towrs, which forms part of thir liv canapé stations for mting and vnts, and th smoothi bar at th Four Sasons for corporat and othr gusts. A mov towards mor fmal-frindly nvironmnts coms not a momnt too soon. Alrady bing rolld out in hotls as part of thir rooms offring, this (prhaps obvious) ida is also bing tstd in th rstaurant and bar aras, which may historically hav bn intimidating for singl fmal travllrs. Finally, thr is a growing notion that rstaurants and bars oprators can translat thir businss or thir brand into a succssful hotl concpt, with arly xampls bing th Buddha Bar, Soho Hous and Hard Rock. This looks lik th flip-sid of th trnd w hav bn talking about: just as hotls ar putting mor ffort into thir rstaurants and bars, succssful rstaurant and bar brands ar aspiring to opn hotls. Both sctors ar hankring for somthing that th othr can offr so prhaps it will b a natural synrgy for th two to cohabit. As vr, tim and th bottom lin will tll. Govinda Singh Dirctor, Hotls, tourism, lisur and hospitality t: +44 (0)207 893 3895 : govinda.singh@bdo.co.uk
15 Rstaurants and Bars Rport Dcmbr 2013 our top 10 Prdictions for 2014 1. rturn of th sctor ipo: 2014 could b th yar whn capital markts r-discovr Rstaurants and Bars - xpct mor flotations than for many yars. 2. continud strngth of th m& a markt: Aftr struggling until rcntly, 2014 will s continud M&A activity. 3. mor pop-ups and mobil units: As th dmand for strt food continus to go from strngth to strngth, oprators will utilis xtrmly short trm lass or mobil units in ordr to crat an xclusivity surrounding thir offrings. 4. mor singl itm mnus: With th youngr gnration of dinrs rgularly namourd with th ida of trying th bst of a crtain dish, xpct to s mor oprators opning singl itm rstaurants whr thy do on dish xtrmly wll. 5. gourmt fast food: 2013 was th yar of th gourmt burgr; 2014 will s dmand for othr forms of gourmt fast food hit th spot light - chickn wings, ribs tc still hav room to grow. 6. rstaurants in rtail stors: As rtailrs look for innovativ ways to driv footfall, xpct th mor savvy rtailrs to start offring dining xprincs in ordr to incras dwll tim. 7. th ris of th pub: Growth in consumr spnd in pubs will ris by mor than growth in spnd in rstaurants as thy foodld pubs continu to improv thir offr. 8. discounting rducs: As oprators look to improv margin, th focus on discounting will diminish. This will b in small stags, howvr, so don t xpct thm to disappar but thy will bcom mor focussd and lss frqunt. 9. dmand for quality and provnanc will grow: Dishs containing ingrdints with protctd dsignation of origin will b incrasingly sought aftr. 10. halth driv continus: Th UK s halth driv won t b tmprd this yar as consumrs will continu to try and watch thir waist lins, particularly during lunch hours.
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