Review of the situation on the EU Beef and Veal Market "Single CMO" Management Committee 19th January 212
Evolution EU production HEADS EU 15 EU 25 EU 27 + 15 % + 15 % Jan-Oct 11/1 EU 1 EU 2-2,9% -2,7% -2,8% Bulls -1,3% -21,9% -1,8% -1,9% -1,7% Steers -15,9% +89,5% +4,9% +4,3% +4,2% Cow s +,2% -12,1% + 1 % + 5 % % - 5 % +1,% +5,2% +4,2% -1,4% -1,8% EU : +,1% +2,9% +2,% +1,7% -1,4% -3,8% -3,4% -5,3% -6,2% -3,8% +3,5% +,5% -,8% -,4% -3,6% -5,2% +3,% +,1% +6,3% + 1 % + 5 % % - 5 % Heifers -3,3% -3,% +,4% -3,1% -9,5% - 1 % -8,% -14,9% - 1 % Veals YBov -,6% -1,2% -1,1% -1,4% +52,5% +13,5% +13,2% +13,5% -6,% +28,8% - 15 % - 2 % - 25 % -15,8% - 15 % - 2 % - 25 % Tot Bov +,3% +,1% +,1% -1,7% -1,7% - 3 % BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE GR ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK -27,9% - 3 % Estimates for last month of period : CY 2
Evolution EU production TONNES EU 15 EU 25 EU 27 + 15 % + 15 % Jan-Oct 11/1 EU 1 EU 2 EU : +,3% Bulls Steers Cow s Heifers -2,1% -2,3% -2,3% -3,4% -24,3% -1,9% -1,9% -1,8% -12,1% +52,5% +4,6% +4,1% +4,% -,3% -8,3% -2,7% -2,6% -2,6% -,7% -21,5% + 1 % + 5 % % - 5 % - 1 % +6,3% +1,2% +2,3% -1,3% -1,5% -1,6% +2,4% +1,4% +3,8% -5,% +2,7% -2,5% -6,2% -7,4% -2,8% +4,1% +,% -1,6% -2,4% -2,7% -4,4% +2,7% -,8% +4,3% + 1 % + 5 % % - 5 % - 1 % Veals YBov -1,3% -1,6% -1,6% -16,% +51,4% +15,8% +15,4% +15,6% -17,5% +32,3% - 15 % - 2 % -15,7% -16,7% - 15 % - 2 % Tot Bov +,5% +,3% +,3% -2,4% -2,4% - 25 % BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE GR ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK -22,5% - 25 % Estimates for last month of period : CY 3
Evolution EU production 14 1 TONS : Jan-Oct 1 / Jan-Oct 11 Cows 12 1 Steers 8 Bulls 6 Heifers 4 YBov 2 B E B G C Z D K D E E E I E G R E S F R I T C Y L V L T L U H U M T N L A T P L P T R O S I S K F I S E U K Calves 4
Evolution EU production Percentual change in Adult Cattle Slaughter Period: Jan - Nov. (EU 27= -,6%) Year: 211 / 21 12,5%,% -12,5% -25,% BE BG CZ DK DE EE EI EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SE UK EU 5
Slaughter in Tonn Evolution EU production Change in Veal Slaughter (Calves & Young Cattle) Period: Jan - November Year:21 & 211 2, 175, 15, Y. Cattle Calves 125, 1, 75, 5, 25,, BE BG CZ DK DE EE EI EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SE UK 6
Evolution EU production Avg WEIGHT EU 15 EU 25 EU 27 + 1 % + 1 % Jan-Oct 11/1 EU 1 EU 2 +,8% +,5% +,5% Bulls -2,1% -3,1% + 5 % +6,4% +7,6% + 5 % Steers Cow s -,% -,% -,1% +4,5% -19,5% -,3% -,2% -,1% -,6% +4,3% % +1,% +,1% -1,6% -,6% +,2% +2,3% +,2% -,2% +,9% +,3% -1,% +,5% +1,1% +,% +,6% -,% -,8% -,4% -,3% -,7% -1,2% -1,7% -2,% -1,8% % Heifers +,6% +,5% +,4% -1,2% -13,3% - 5 % - 5 % Veals -,7% -,5% -,5% -6,2% -,7% EU : +,% YBov +2,% +1,9% +1,9% -12,3% +2,7% - 1 % -1,3% - 1 % Tot Bov +,1% +,% -,7% -2,3% +,% - 15 % BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE GR ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK - 15 % Estimates ( HD ) for last month of period : CY Estimates ( TN ) for last month of period : CY 7
Evolution EU prices Young bull carcasses (A R3 /1 kg cw) 4 38 36 34 32 3 A - R 3 > Wk.1-212 28 W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53 25-29 Avg 21 211 212 Price in week 1 : 383, Average price in décembre 211 : 379,7 % change y/y : + 9,% % change y/y : + 9,2% 8
Evolution EU prices Steer carcasses (C R3 /1 kg cw) 4 38 36 34 32 3 C - R 3 > Wk.1-212 28 W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53 25-29 Avg 21 211 212 Price in week 1 : 391,21 Average price in décembre 211 : 383,43 % change y/y : + 19,1% % change y/y : + 2,% 9
Evolution EU prices 4,3 /1 kg cwe (A/C R3 /1 kg cw) % of Reference Price 18% 378,1 17% 355,8 16% 333,6 15% 311,4 14% 289,1 13% 266,9 12% 244,6 11% 222,4 AC - R 3 > Wk.1-212 1% W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53 25-29 Avg 21 211 212 Price in week 1 : 383,57 Average price in décembre 211 : 378,47 % change y/y : + 9,9% % change y/y : + 1,1% % Ref. Price in wk 1 : 172,5% 1
Evolution EU prices Cow carcasses (D O3 /1 kg cw) 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 D - O 3 > Wk.1-212 21 W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53 25-29 Avg 21 211 212 Price in week 1 : 282,9 Average price in décembre 211 : 276,99 % change y/y : + 16,9% % change y/y : + 17,2% 11
Evolution EU prices Heifer carcasses (E R3 /1 kg cw) 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 E - R 3 > Wk.1-212 3 W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53 25-29 Avg 21 211 212 Price in week 1 : 377,96 Average price in décembre 211 : 377,19 % change y/y : + 11,2% % change y/y : + 11,9% 12
Live bovines (1) Male store cattle (6-12 months; 3 kg /1 kg live weight) 25 Evolution EU prices 24 23 22 21 2 BROUT W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53 25-29 Avg 21 211 212 Price in week 1 : 24,27 Average price in décembre 211 : 235,97 % change y/y : + 16,4% % change y/y : + 14,2% > Wk.1-212 13
/ Head / Head Evolution EU prices Live bovines (2a) Male DAIRY CALVES calves aged between 8 days and 4 weeks ( /head) 35 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 > W1 35 3 3 25 25 2 2 15 15 1 1 5 5 DE - SCHWARZBUNTE DE - BRAUNVIEH ES - TIPO FRISON FR - MALES-ENGRAISSEMENT IE - DAIRY MALE IT - MALES-LAITIERS-VITELLI NL - ROODBONT-NUKAS NL - ZWARTBONT-NUKAS UK - DAIRY BULLS 14
/ Head / Head Evolution EU prices Live bovines (2b) Male BEEF CALVES calves aged between 8 days and 4 weeks ( /head) 6 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 > W1 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 DE - FLECKVIEH DE - KREUZUNGSKALBER ES - TIPO CRUZADO FR - MALES-ELEVAGE IE - BEEF MALE IT - MALES-BOUCHERIE NL - VLEESRAS--NUKAS UK - BEEF BULLS 15 1
/ 1 kg carcasse / 1 kg carcase Evolution EU prices Live bovines (3a) Butcher calves ( /1 kg cw) 7 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 > W1 7 65 65 6 6 55 55 5 5 45 45 4 4 35 BE - VEAUX BLANCS E,U,R FR - VEAUX DE BOUCHERIE IT - CARNE BIANCA NL - VLEESKALF-ROOD NL - VLEESKALF-ZWART 16 35
uro/ head Evolution margin over animal + feed purchase costs 4 Remainder of: Selling price AR 3,minus purchased calf plus feedcost for grain fattening 45 4 35 3 3 25 2 2 15 1 1 5 27 28 29 21 211 Remainder Young Bulls A.R 3 Extra gain FC 6-7 Feedcost x*7 Feed conversion rate: (FCR) 7 or 6 kg feed = 1kg live weight. Feed ration: 4% compound feed (energy + proteine), 15% barley, 15% maize, 2% wheat, 1% straw Carcase yield:.57 17
uro/ head Evolution margin over animal + feed purchase costs Remainder of: Selling price AR 3,minus purchased calf plus feedcost for grain/ grass fattening. 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 27 28 29 21 211 Remainder Young Bulls A.R 3 Extra gain FC 6-7 Feedcost x*7 Feed conversion rate: (FCR) 7 or 6 kg feed = 1kg live weight. Feed ration: 62,7% fodder (silage maize), 18,6% grains (maize + wheat, 13,3% soja cake, 5,3% straw Carcase yield:.57 18
EU beef trade EU exports of beef and live animals (1): Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes cwe) Destinations 27 28 29 21 Jan-Nov 11 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Nov 1 Turkey 214,1% 24,1% 571,2% 7.37 14,5% 156.423 26,6% +++ Russia 87.277 35,2% 12.347 35,1% 5.881 2,4% 135.762 28,% 128.498 21,8% + 4,5% Sw itzerland 14.457 5,8% 25.968 8,9% 19.72 7,7% 22.34 4,6% 24.836 4,2% + 18,2% Croatia 16.46 6,6% 19.917 6,8% 25.126 1,1% 23.159 4,8% 23.143 3,9% + 9,2% Lebanon 3.647 1,5% 5.619 1,9% 7.838 3,1% 33.774 7,% 21.834 3,7% - 29,9% Algeria 1.674,7% 1.689,6% 6.681 2,7% 16.151 3,3% 17.93 2,9% + 1,8% Other Destinations 117.53 47,3% 126.887 43,5% 125.591 5,4% 168.757 1,1% 217.17 36,9% + 31,1% EXTRA EU 25/27 247.722 291.61 249.165 485.166 588.997 % change + 18% - 15% + 95% + 4,3% 19
Tonnes cw 1, EUR EU beef trade EU exports of beef and live animals: Trade figures (COMEXT) EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (Tonnes cwe) EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (1 EUR) 227.286 125.213 46.97 419.738 165.651 122.938 588.997 217.17 128.498 156.423 Jan-Nov 9 Jan-Nov 1 Jan-Nov 11 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. Turkey Russia Switzerland Croatia Algeria Lebanon Other destinations 559.714 243.463 118.97 1.5.162 332.358 248.71 1.787.411 485.441 331.36 6.988 Jan-Nov 9 Jan-Nov 1 Jan-Nov 11 Turkey Russia Switzerland Croatia Algeria Lebanon Other destinations 2.. 1.8. 1.6. 1.4. 1.2. 1.. 8. 6. 4. 2. 2
in Tonnes cwe EU beef trade Exports of BEEF products 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. Jan6 26 Jan7 27 Jan8 28 Jan9 29 Jan1 21 211 212 Jan11 Jan12 LIVE ANIMALS FRESH FROZEN PREPARED OTHERS 21
Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec 1 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 EU beef trade EU beef Exports to TURKEY Trade figures (COMEXT data) tonnes cwe Fresh Bovine "Compensated" quarters Fresh Bovine (un)-separated Hindquarters Live Animals Fresh Bovine (un)-separated Forequarters Frozen Bovine "Compensated" quarters TOTAL 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 22
Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec 1 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 EU beef trade EU beef Exports to RUSSIA Trade figures (COMEXT data) tonnes cwe Live animals Frozen Bovine meat TOTAL Fresh Bovine meat Beef Offals 24 22 2 18 16 EU beef Exports to RUSSIA Trade figures (COMEXT data) tonnes cwe 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 23
Jan 9 Feb 9 Mar 9 Apr 9 May 9 Jun 9 Jul 9 Aug 9 Sep 9 Oct 9 Nov 9 Dec 9 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec 1 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 2 111. 2 14. 3 112. 2 259. 2 699. 2 76. 2 57. 2 956. 2 933. 3 399. 3 84. 2 816. 3 29. 2 611. 3 67. 4 4. 4 99. 3 97. 3 458. 4 251. 4 597. 4 127. 2 511. 3 565. 5 5. 3 677. 5 213. 2 684. 3 4. 4 374. 5 789. 6 56. 4 328. 7 14. 3 953. 2 432. 1 929. 3 84. 3 183. 1 876. 3 969. 9 637. 5 851. 5 329. 5 829. 5 135. 3 348. 5 418. 4 112. 5 7. 5 28. 4 886. 4 437. 5 474. 6 61. 2 728. 6 617. 6 158. 4 892. 5 413. Tonnes CWE. 6 651. 6 38. 7 358. EU beef trade EU Exports of LIVE Bovine Animals (Source COMEXT - Tonnes cwe) 2 Turkey Algeria 18 Lebanon Other 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 24
EU beef trade EU exports of beef and live animals (3): Licence applications for exports with refunds (tonnes cwe) LIVE FRESH FROZEN TINNED G A T T Y E A R S TOTAL ANIMALS BEEF BEEF BEEF 21-11 : 17.46 17.286 38.623 163.37 Σ Week 1 > 28 211-12 : 12.194 71.716 21.19 15.1 ( W 28 ending 8 / 1 / 212 ) % Share ( W 28 ) 11,6% 68,2% 2,2% 1,% % Chg / Prev. Same Period - 3,2% - 33,2% - 45,1% - 35,7% EVOLUTION PER CATEGORY ( tonnes cw e - GATT years ) EVOLUTION IN EXPORT STRUCTURE ( % share - GATT years ) 2. 1% 15. 8% 6% 1. 4% 5. 2% Live animals Fresh beef Frozen beef Tinned beef W28 24-5 25-6 26-7 27-8 28-9 29-1 21-11 211-12* % 24-5 25-6 26-7 27-8 28-9 29-1 21-11 211-12* W28 Live animals Fresh beef Frozen beef Tinned beef 25
EU beef trade EU imports of beef and live animals (1): Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes cwe) Origins 27 28 29 21 Jan-Nov 11 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Nov 1 Brazil 363.839 65,4% 171.454 43,4% 149.7 34,6% 144.791 38,2% 115.26 38,9% - 14,3% Argentina 97.656 17,6% 92.924 23,5% 122.494 28,4% 79.487 21,% 57.75 19,5% - 22,2% Uruguay 39.544 7,1% 66.42 16,8% 79.144 18,4% 66.156 17,5% 47.454 16,1% - 22,5% USA 2.746,5% 6.547 1,7% 9.69 2,2% 15.29 4,% 19.157 6,5% + 38,4% Australia 1.19 1,8% 12.957 3,3% 16.937 3,9% 13.628 3,6% 16.21 5,5% + 39,5% New Zealand 5.756 1,% 12.455 3,2% 15.783 3,7% 13.669 3,6% 14.547 4,9% + 1,7% Namibia 1.467 1,9% 1.348 2,6% 12.457 2,9% 13.571 3,6% 8.432 2,9% - 35,8% Switzerland 2.855,5% 2.919,7% 4.394 1,% 4.45 1,2% 5.122 1,7% + 28,7% Chile 2.844,5% 2.55,6% 3.158,7% 2.441,6% 2.49,7% - 7,7% Botswana 13.929 2,5% 1.395 2,6% 11.452 2,7% 15.763 4,2% 98,3% - 93,3% Serbia 2.324,4% 1.784,5% 99,2% 1.127,3% 712,2% - 3,9% EXTRA EU 25/27556.24 395.63 431.182 378.954 295.566 % change - 29% + 9% - 12% - 15,8% 26
EU beef trade EU imports of beef and live animals (2): Trade figures (COMEXT) IMPORTS of Beef & Veal into EU (Tonnes cwe) 394.54 5.45 72.899 112.554 351.38 54.361 61.246 74.251 295.566 41.634 47.454 57.75 45. 4. 35. 3. 25. 2. 15. In Tonnes cw e IMPORTS of Beef & Veal into EU (1 EUR) 1.6.445 1.8. 1.47.844 1.482.553 1.6. 225.681 192.692 23.68 1.4. 1.2. 253.586 24.422 252.718 1.. 8. 466.42 429.326 423.515 6. in 1 EUR 134.571 134.195 115.26 1. 5. 388.3 446.351 495.779 4. 2. Jan-Nov 9 Jan-Nov 1 Jan-Nov 11 Jan-Nov 9 Jan-Nov 1 Jan-Nov 11 Brazil Argentina Uruguay USA New Zealand Other destinations Brazil Argentina Uruguay USA New Zealand Other destinations 27
in Tonnes cwe EU beef trade Imports of BEEF products 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. Jan6 26 Jan7 27 Jan8 28 Jan9 29 Jan1 21 211 212 Jan11 Jan12 FRESH FROZEN PREPARED OTHERS 28
EU beef trade Trade balance on beef and live animals 1.4 1.263 1.171 1.12 IMPORTS EXPORTS 1.2 1.28 1. 825 736 8 452 43 446 41 436 429 598 598 589 565 556 491 513 529 513 481 485 455 431 398 395 379 352 292 292 296 248 249 1 Tonne 6 4 2 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 Jan- Nov 11 29
World beef market Index of monthly exchange rates of the main trading partners compared to the uro 175, notification on the 1st of the month January 21 = 1 15, 125, 1, 75, I 27 I 28 I 29 I 21 I 211 I 212 Real US$ Ruble AUS$ CDN$ 3
India (up to May 11) EU Brazil Canada (up to Oct 11) Uruguay (up to Jul 11) Argentina (up to Oct 11) China + H. Kong Brazil India (up to May 11) Canada (up to Oct 11) New Zealand (up to Oct 11) EU Uruguay (up to Jul 11) China + H. Kong New Zealand (up to Oct 11) Argentina (up to Oct 11) Australia Australia Qty in 1 Tonnes United States (up to Oct 11) United States (up to Oct 11) World beef market Source : GTA * Excluding live animals (12), fats, preparations of several types of meat (29, 21 99 and 162 9) Main Exporters of BEEF Products (up to November) Order of countries based on 21 total exports 2.5 2.25 2. 1.75 1.5 1.25 1. 75 5 25 21 (up to November) 211 (up to November) Only Jan-Apr 211 available for India (661 9 T in 21-4th main exporter) 31 * EU was the 7th biggest importer of Beef products in 21
EU South Korea Canada (up to Oct 11) Turkey EU United States (up to Oct 11) China + H. Kong United States (up to Oct 11) Russia (up to Oct 11) China + H. Kong Mexico (up to Sep 11) Japan South Korea Canada (up to Oct 11) Turkey Russia (up to Oct 11) Mexico (up to Sep 11) Japan Qty in 1 Tonnes. World beef market Source : GTA * Excluding live animals (12), fats, preparations of several types of meat (29, 21 99 and 162 9) Main Importers of BEEF Products (up to November) Order of countries based on 21 total imports 1.3 1.2 1.1 1. 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 21 (up to November) 211 (up to November) 32 * EU was the 7th biggest importer of Beef products in 29
uro/ 1kg World beef market Market prices for Adult Male Bovine in Brazil (Pecuaria.com.br), Argentina ( Oncca) Uruguay ( Inac) and EU 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, Year 28 EU Beef A/C R3 Year 29 Novillos Export (Oncca Argent ina) Year 21 Year 211 Year 212 AVG Arroba do Boi (6 St) (Pecuària.com.br) Media Res Novillo (Inac Uruguay) 33
World beef market 38, weekly US & EU Steer prices in uro/1kg carcase 33, 28, 23, 18, 13, 8, 9 1 11 Steers 55-7lb Omaha (Nebraska) Feeder Steer 6-7lb Oklahoma City EU Beef C R3 Steers 15-12lb Okla/ Tex Canada: All Steers (agr,gc,ca) Australia: All Steers New Zeal. Avg steers T2 NI & SI 34
Conclusion 4 ALL CATEGORIES GLOBAL VIEW ( /1 kg cw ) A R3 35 C R3 3 D O3 25 2 Last Update : Week 1-212 27 28 29 21 211 212 E R3 35