Network Evolution, Cloud & Future Services Opportunities & Challenges for Next-Decade Services
Outline Trends: Data, Services & Networks Cloud What is Next? 2
Law of Telecom Complexity Telecom complexity, C, is calculated roughly as: C (Number of protocol domains) X (Number of networks per domain) X (Average number of inter-network interfaces per network) Over time, T, the number of protocol domains increases proportional to T The number of networks per domain increases proportional to T The number of inter-network interfaces per network is proportional to the number of networks per domain Hence, C T 3 2020 Venture Partners All Rights Reserved 2012 3
Internet Big Bang Prefix Connectivity * Volume Expansion 15,000,000 2011 U.S. Traffic Tbytes / Month (20% WW) 10,000 1999 1,000 1996 Galaxy Integration Voice 1 1990 Arpanet 1969 Private Network 5k 1992 40k 1997 End Point Expansion 80k 2000 500k 2011 IP Networks Must Be Ready For Sextuple Play BGP Table Size 4
Already in the Zettabyte Era Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index Global Data Center IP Traffic Growth 5
Applications Moving to the Cloud Source: Independent Analyst Shipment Data, Cisco Analysis Transformation from Traditional IT to the Cloud 6
Rules of Machines & Cloud: Computing Surpasses Moore s Law 2015 2011 2000 1940 1980 IBM PC 250K CPS IBM PS/2 13M CPS Cray Computer 86M CPS K Computer 8.6 Quadrillion CPS >=13 BLY Universe ipad 2 1.7B CPS Earth Simulator 38 T CPS SONY PlayStation 2.1 Trillion T CPS 1 Calculation Per 150 Sec Manual IBM SSEC 485 CPS 7
Pervasive Content = Bandwidth Crunch Global Mobile Network Data Traffic 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 Web/Internet VoIP Video Streaming/TV P2P Petabytess 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Audio Streaming LTE offers only ~3x-5x improvement 20 x Bandwidth Gap 4,000 2,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mobile Data Demand is Exploding Due to Pervasive Content, Leading to a Looming Bandwidth Gap 8
Solving the Bandwidth Crunch Invent spectrum-multiplying solutions that enable optimal data usage and a richer multimedia experience Compression (3-5X), caching, local content routing, streaming media (1/2 Cost and Opex), mobility Better Pipes Bigger Pipes More Pipes Push Shannon s Limit - More Bps/Hz (5 10X) Maximize throughput at cell edge, uniform coverage across cell Inventions for efficient bandwidth utilization across Tier 1 networks 9
Outline Trends: Data, Services & Networks Cloud What Is Next? 10
Cloud: Global Impact Virtualisation: Servers, Storage & Computational Systems Social, Political & Financial Considerations 11
Cloud Ecosystem Security Availability SaaS PaaS IaaS XaaS Management & Orchestration Virtualization & Automation Cloud Interworking Business Continuity Data Privacy Hardware, Platform, OS Compute Network Storage Energy Efficiency From Physical Silos To Network-Based IT-As-A-Service & Anything As-A-Service (XaaS) 12
Industry Services Over IP Vision Layered Architecture Integrated Feature Execution Environment Cloud Computing Services Collaboration E-Commerce Conferencing Messaging Video CVoIP/BVoIP IP Centrex E911 Services over IP Infrastructure Provides Advanced Services in a Uniform Environment Common Services over IP Network Infrastructure Peering Global IP/MPLS Network Functions Border Elements & Gateways CALEA All Access Technologies Any End Device 2020 Venture Partners All Rights Reserved 2012 13
Transaction-based DPM Methodology Understand how the services are provided via their transactions Define how transactions are defective for the services provided Failures in Accessibility, Continuity & Fulfillment under service s Operational Profile Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) Measure the services provided for defects on IP Edge Router Analyze what happens to the defined transactions (opportunities) Control service to maintain a high level of quality 14
IP DPM Measurements View Services as a collection of transactions that are invoked under a specified Operational Profile with a Focus on Probability(Successful Transaction) Port Accessibility - probability of successfully initiating a transaction. This is the availability of any communication path into the service. Continuity - probability of successfully completing an initiated transaction. Fulfillment - probability of completing transactions within acceptable performance/service bounds. Flow-Through: probability of automatically flowing through the factory defects Proposal: Develop a mathematical methodology to track and link IP Edge Network defect metrics to the system and process metrics (including availability and latency) within Management Control Plane. 15
Factory DPMs Example Approximate Relation of Factory Metrics System Metrics f1 A1 A4 f 2 A2 f 4 f 5 A5 f 7 f 3 A3 Factory Defects f 6 A6 Factory DPM ~ path _ j ( App _ i DPM f ) Where path j represent the j paths through the factory f ij are the fraction of transactions that flow from App i to App j DPM ij are the DPMs generated at App i from transactions on path j p j is the probability of following path j ij ij p j 16
Outline Trends: Data, Services & Networks Cloud What Is Next? 17
Networks Grid Networks 2010 LTE Web Services Mobile Video Wireless Networks Optical Reader Interactive Video Location Based Services Wireless VoIP Storage Visualization Self Healing Networks Intelligent Optical Chip On-demand Reconfigurable Networks Cognitive Radio Online Applications Application Aware Networks Exabit Backbone Seamless Mobility 2010 Collaboration IPv6 2015 3-D 100Mbps Dominates Printing Consumer BB 2015 Symmetric 2020 High Speed Wireless Broadband What Is Next? 50B Wireless Endpoints (RFID, Sensors) Wearable Networks 1Gbps DOCSIS Last Wireline Phone Retired 10Gbps Wireless 100 to 1 Wireless vs. Wireline End Points 2020 End of Bcast TV Nano Computers Tele- Immersion Holistic Storage Speech to Speech Translation Composite Applications Perpendicular Storage Fuel Cells Cloud Services Large Mobile Storage 2025 2020 2020 2015 2010 Common Robotics Natural Language Understanding Affordable Green Energy Big Data 2.0 Web of M2M Quantum Computing Big Data Everywhere Flexible Displays Thumb Print Scanner Ad-hoc Mesh Sensory LTE Voice Rich Media Search 2015 RFID Devices GPS Biometric Semantic Web 2010 Content / Applications 18
Network Evolution, Cloud & Future Services Opportunities & Challenges for Next-Decade Services