Overview of The Upfront. September 25th, 2012

Transcription

1 Overview of The Upfront September 25th, 2012

2 Upfront Definition The long range purchase of commercial time for the upcoming broadcast year. (Sometimes more than a year or can be a calendar year).

3 Upfront Buying Characteristics Covers the entire broadcast year (September to September). Buys cover 52 weeks and the audience is guaranteed. Negotiations occur in late spring but could drag into the early summer. Networks sell about 80-85% of their commercial inventory although that can change.

4 Upfront Advantages Best program selection. Audience delivery is guaranteed. Typically more cost efficient (than scatter). Flighting requirements are adhered to. Cancellation privileges available. 4

5 Broadcast Upfront Calendar January-February: Pilots are being ordered by networks. March-April: Program development meetings. Networks address programming needs. April-early May: Network executives are screening pilots. Mid-May: Network upfront presentations. New fall lineup announced. Not as glamorous as it once was. Late May-July: Upfront negotiations take place. Late September: New broadcast season starts. October: At least one new show will probably be cancelled.

6 Upfront Background 1950: No upfront; advertising is sold through program sponsorships. Late 1950 s: Quiz show scandals & high production costs push industry toward in-program multiple brand advertising. Broadcasters gain control of programs instead of advertisers, one-minute ads become standardized. 1962: For the first time a network (ABC a.k.a. the third network ), premiere all their shows in the same week. Mid 1960 s: CBS & NBC follow ABC in creating premiere week. The broadcast season emerges. Fall debuts helped create spring upfronts. 1967: First guarantee based on cost-per-thousand (CPM) negotiated by American Home Products. Mid 1970 s: 30-second ads replace one-minute commercials as standard length. Upfront becomes established as an annual event.

7 Upfront Background : J. Walter Thompson boycotts the upfront saying CPM increases of +25% are outrageous. JWT clients eventually pay up buying lesser quality shows at higher prices in scatter market. Early 1980 s: Fledgling cable networks begin to copy upfront strategy. 1985: Due to spiraling costs advertisers begin using :15 TV ads. 1992: Prominent sponsors at ANA TV ad forum argue abandoning upfront for continuing TV market or so: Spanish language networks have presentations during upfront week. 2007: C3 ratings which measures DVR playback & commercials minutes viewed, becomes the currency replacing average program ratings. 2012: Digital media companies; such as AOL, Yahoo, Hulu, Microsoft and Google as well movie theater ad companies begin upfront presentations. Source: Erwin Ephron s Ephrononmedia

8 Broadcast & Cable Upfront Ad Dollars (in billions) $10.0 $8.0 $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 BROADCAST $9.3 $9.3 $9.2 $8.9 $9.2 $9.2 $8.2 $7.8 $7.2 $6.7 CABLE $4.8 $4.6 $4.0 $6.4 $6.9 $7.7 $6.2 $6.4 $6.7 $5.4 $8.6 $8.2 $9.2 $9.0 $ Source: Credit Suisse , industry sources 2011

9 Change the Upfront? David Verklin s Network Upfront Discussion Group 1. Fourth through third quarter commitment, no company plans that way. 2. Gun to the head negotiation. No company bargains that way. 3. Commitment before real schedules are known. No company buys that way. 4. No significant paper trail to trace the buying process. No company manages that way. 5. Advertisers don t know the marketplace of what they are buying. No company spends money that way. ANA Upfront Survey Propose beginning the market in the fall closer rather than the spring. Marketers have a better idea of what their ad budgets will be in the fall. 2. No drastic changes in prime time schedule, which leads to disappearance of shows that advertisers had agreed to buy. 3. Extend the buying and selling period and use a negotiating clock.

10 Every Upfront is Different 2003 a strong seller s market-marketers spent $9.3 billion in three days with strong CPM increases a strong buyer s market-most protracted negotiations ever lasting into August. CPM s dropped. Sluggish TV marketplace the networks will sell less inventory in the upfront to create demand and hope for stronger scatter marketplace. Networks announced how much ad dollars they have collected, we take there word for it.

11 Units Reach 100 Adult Points on Each Network? A # Units to Reach Rating 100 GRP s ABC CBS NBC Fox Total 58 Average ad rate $93,700- Total Package $5,434,600 Cost per rating point = $13,586 Source: Nielsen: broadcast season & prime time ad rates from February 1992

12 Units Reach 100 Adult Points on Each Network? A # Units to Reach Rating 100 GRP s ABC CBS NBC Fox Total 101 Average ad rate $108,100- Total Package $10,918,100 Cost per rating point = $27,295 Source: Nielsen: broadcast season & prime time ad rates from February 2002

13 Units Reach 100 Adult Points on Each Network? A # Units to Reach Rating 100 GRP s ABC CBS NBC Fox Total 176 Average ad rate $116,600- Total Package $20,521,600 Cost per rating point = $51,304 Source: Nielsen: broadcast season through April 15 (live + same day) & prime time Ad rates from February 2012

14 Top Rated Networks Adults FOX CBS NBC ABC UNI ESPN TBS USA HIST FX CW A&E TNT FAM ADSM TEL DISC MTV CMDY FOOD SYFY BRVO AMC DSNY TLC Source: Nielsen (Live + Same Day) Sept 19, 2011-April 15, 2012 Broadcast Prime Time

15 Total Ad Spending (in billions) $27.5 $25.8 $27.2 $29.2 $30.5 $31.8 $32.4 $33.3 $31.7 $33.7 $35.4 CUME Various Sources

16 Adult Ratings Source: Nielsen (prime time) Broadcast TV includes ABC, CBS, ABC & Fox Calendar Year (live + same day starts in 2006) Broadcast Cable CUME

17 Networks Selling More Ads: Ad Minutes per Hour Source: Kantar Media Minutes are in decimal form: Figures does not include promotions or local ads (ABC, CBS, NBC & Fox only)

18 Networks Selling More Ads: Ad Units per Hour Source: Kantar Media Broadcast season each year through April 22 for (ABC, CBS, NBC & Fox only) Figures does not include promos or local ad minutes

19 Number of Brands & Advertisers Using National Television Advertisers Brands Source: Kantar Media- (includes English & Spanish language network, cable & syndicated television)

20 What Live TV is Competing With DVR s Online Videos Netflix Video on Demand Tablets Nielsen has included online video & VOD as part of its C3 ratings for several content providers. A small portion of the extended screen.

21 Changes with Nielsen DVR Playback is now measured as TV usage. Watching the same content twice (either time shifted or on a different video screen) now counts twice. Some difficulty in recruiting young adults (living alone) to the National People Meter sample. Inability to identify all streaming content (needs to be encoded) via video game consoles, Blu-ray players connected to TV sets. Video content on tablets not measured yet.

22 TV Viewing Preliminary estimates for has TV penetration at 95.8% was 96% in There are more TV sets than people in the home. 85% of TV content is viewed live-was 89% in DVR Penetration was 18.6% in September 2007 & 44.4% in April DVR usage represents 8% of all TV viewing was 1.6% in 2007.

23 Total Use of TV Time-Adults Wkly Hrs: Min 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 32:39 32: DVR DVD Video Game VCR HUT 0% Distribution of % Total Minutes by Demo Across the Total Day Source: Nielsen (First 4 weeks of the Broadcast Season)

24 Total Use of TV Time-Adults Wkly Hrs: Min 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 36:19 37: DVR DVD Video Game VCR HUT 0% Distribution of % Total Minutes by Demo Across the Total Day Source: Nielsen (First 4 weeks of the Broadcast Season)

25 Total Use of TV Time-Adults 55+ Wkly Hrs: Min 100% 80% 43:57 46: % 40% 20% 0% DVR DVD VCR HUT Distribution of % Total Minutes by Demo Across the Total Day Source: Nielsen (First 4 weeks of the Broadcast Season)

26 Growth of Video Platforms 4 Qtr & 4 Qtr Watching Video Online Watch Time Shifted TV Viewing Watch Video on Mobile Phone % +19.6% +58.4% +63.3% +94.6% +17.1% # of Users Time Spent # of Users Time Spent # of Users Time Spent Source: Nielsen Cross Platform Report for Fourth Qtr & Fourth Qtr. 2011

27 DVR Playback is a Top Rated Show in 1 Qtr Adults Live + 7 Day Live + Same Day Live Only Voice 7.2 Voice 6.2 Voice 5.1 Idol-Wed 6.8 Idol-Wed 5.7 Playback 4.9 Big Bang 6.3 Idol-Thu 5.1 Idol-Wed 4.4 Idol-Thu 6.1 Big Bang 4.9 Idol-Thu 3.8 Mod Family 5.7 Playback 4.9 Big Bang 3.5 Playback 4.9 Mod Family 4.0 Mod Family 2.9 Source: Nielsen Jan 2-Apr 1, 2012

28 DVR Playback = Younger Viewers Median Age ABC CBS NBC FOX Cable Playback Source: Nielsen Jan 2-Apr 1, 2011 prime time (live only)

29 Online Videos Number of online video viewers in US grew from million in March 2011 to million in March On average 100 million Americans are watching online videos daily. Average online viewing session increased from 5.2 minutes in March 2011 to 6.4 minutes in March Led by Hulu, the number of online video ads viewed nearly doubled from 4.3 billion in March 2011 to 8.3 billion in March In March 7 billion content videos viewed in prime time. (19% of total). Source: comscore

30 Online Video Adoption Growth Billions of Online Videos Viewed* March 2011 March 2012 * Content Videos (non-advertising) Source: comscore Hours Spent Viewing Online Videos +24.2% +46.6% March 2011 March 2012

31 Over 50% of Online Video Viewers are Under % 3.4% 0.8% % 18.7% 9.9% 26.8% 20.6% Source: comscore March 2012

32 Netflix With 23.4 million streaming subscribers, Netflix is the largest video distributor in the US. Over one-half and possibly up to 80% of content streamed on Netflix is television shows, not movies. Most streamed program series is premiere of Mad Men. Netflix subscribers streamed 2 billion hours of content in fourth quarter 2011, 2 nd most watched video source in Netflix homes and 15 th overall. Accounts for 2.5% of all viewing. Ability to watch content on 800+ devices. As the cost to acquire content from escalates from competition can advertising support be far behind?

33 Online Video Programming Initiatives Netflix: Lilyhammer, House of Cards, Orange is the New Black, Hemlock Grove, Arrested Development (and possibly Jericho). Hulu: Battleground, We Got Next, The Awesomes, Don t Quit Your Daydream and Flow. YouTube: Google s YouTube is investing $100 million in professionally made original content. Goal is to create up to 25 hours of programming (of various lengths) daily by July. Channels created by Hollywood talent. Online video viewers spend 32.5% of their time on Google Sites. Amazon: Is expected to produce original content in the near future, soliciting ideas for children s and comedy shows.

34 Video on Demand About half of TV homes have access to VOD. In 2011 VOD transactions were 8.8 billion up from 7.8 billion in Average home watches 8 hours of VOD content monthly. 77% of VOD transactions (6.8 billion) were free content (FVOD), a 17% increase from FVOD programs that run on ad-supported broadcast, cable and on-demand networks, account for 5 hours of viewing, 17 FOD TV shows or videos watched monthly. TV entertainment (programs from broadcast & cable networks) is top category for FVOD transactions was #3 in In 1 st Qtr. 2012, 21% of all FVOD transactions occurred in prime time. Growth segment for advertisers. Source: Rentrak

35 Tablets Apple s ipad 3 sold in first weekend, 60+ million sold. Amazon s Kindle Fire reportedly sold one million units weekly in its first month has slowed since. In first year, HBO Go app 6 million downloads on ipad moving to Kindle Fire. ABC Player app 5 million downloads since April 2010 with 100 million episode views & 400 million ads viewed. Recent Viacom Tabletomics study 15% tablet users watch full length shows on those devices. Impacts video content on PC s (but not TV). Tablet owners with cable subscription offering streaming apps, about half have downloaded the app. MSO app users spend 20% more time on their tablet than non-mso app users. 74% of tablet usage done at home- (multi-media tasking). 62% of tablet owners are daily users, spending average of 2.4 hours per day on their tablets, led by 18 to 24 year olds. Similar to PC s most popular genres are comedy and music.

36 Upfront Forecasts from Financial Sector CPM increases will not be as robust this year as in Scatter market was softer in Ratings have been down across many tuning sources of late. Cable will get higher CPM rate increases than broadcasters. Cable will receive more ad dollars than broadcasters. CBS will get the biggest rate increase among broadcasters. Automotive category will be stronger. Retail? Digital media will not take ad dollars from television.

37 In Summary Broadcast networks create more demand with lower ratings. Broadcast networks still deliver significantly more viewers than any one individual cable network. Broadcasters have been gradually adding more advertising time. Advertisers & brands continue to support national television. Consumer adoption of other video screens and on-demand viewing is proliferating. Younger consumers are more likely to time shift and watch video content on other screens, not all of it is measurable. Overall consumers have a voracious appetite for video content.

38 One Last Thought In a period of about one month, broadcast & cable networks will get over $18 billion in ad volume. Television in total generates $70 billion in ad volume.(they also get $38 billion in carriage fees annually). By comparison, in 2011, $2 billion was spent on online video & Facebook received $3.2 billion in ad revenue. Lastly, if you think television is niche you haven t seen anything yet!

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