The Economic Future of Online Video
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1 The Economic Future of Online Video David Waterman with Ryland Sherman Sixth Annual Conference on Internet Search and Innovation June 4, 2015
2 Video and the Internet
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4 Offline vs. Online video viewing Avg. weekly U.S. viewing per person: o 35.3 hours of TV o 68 minutes of online video 10% of US adults account for 87% of online video streaming, watching on average 2 hrs., 38 min./week. Source: Nielsen, Q4/2014
5 Offline vs. Online Ad Revenue and Spending Consumer Spending* 2014 growth Multichannel TV Services (Cable, DBS, Telco) Online Video (Subscription, sales/rental) $112.8 bil. +3% $7.0 bil. +30% Advertising Revenue 2014 growth Broadcast & Cable TV $77.5 bil. +8% Online Video $5.9 bil. +48% *projected Source: SNL Kagan
6 USA Today, May 12, 2015
7 U.S. Household Access % 120 m 83% 99.5 m 76% 90.1 m 60 40% m 20 0 US US Households HHs MVPD HHs Broadband HHs SVOD HHs 9% 10.9 m Broadband BB only Only HHs *in millions of US households; Source: Nielsen, 2014 (author rounding)
8 Back to the Future of Online Video.. Drivers o Technology o Viewer migration and demographics Barriers o programming availability: authentication and time delays o successful business models, esp. advertising and aggregation o potential role of ISP pricing: data caps and interconnection
9 Back to the Future of Online Video.. Drivers o Technology o Viewer migration and demographics Barriers programming availability: authentication and time delays o successful business models, esp. advertising and aggregation o potential role of ISP pricing: data caps and interconnection
10 Early model of cable TV unbundling Programming Networks Independent networks/aggregator websites (TBS, Hulu, etc.) Cable TV Systems Subscribers
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12 A Prevalence of Authentication, Longer Windows Without It (Our research from network websites Sept. 2014) Requiring authentication All 6 major premium networks 20 of 30 largest basic networks o All 15 networks that live stream from their websites o Most other programs delayed by 1 day + 3 of 4 major broadcast networks o Fox, NBC, & ABC --- for shows up to 8 days, then free access o CBS does not; most programming delayed 1 day + Source: Sherman & Waterman, 2014
13 An Economic Model Segmenting Devices Larger and higher value (higher revenue per viewer) MVPD MARKET WINDOWS AUTHENTICATION Smaller and lower value (lower revenue per viewer) ONLINE VIDEO MARKET
14 Limitations of Online Advertising..the chorus of media executives calling for better measurement (WSJ, Feb. 24, 2015) given the amount of money we were paying [for] high impact ad units, for them not to be viewed was a massive issue when it came down to our brand campaigns. (Marketing Magazine, June 2, 2015) Among the favorite tactics of ad fraudsters is to build bogus Web sites, flood them with traffic generated from computer programs known as bots, and then sell ads on these sites within ad exchanges. Most ad exchanges say they have made great efforts to inhibit the sale of such bogus ad inventory, but the practice persists. (WSJ, May. 22, 2015)
15 TUBE VILLE Alice s Cable Service VOD ($) Premium networks ($) Showtime HBO Disney Cartoon TNT Basic package $ ESPN BET MTV TBS MAIN ST.
16 TUBE VILLE Alice s Cable Service VOD ($) Premium networks ($) Showtime HBO Go HBO Netflix YouTube TNT ESPN Disney Basic package BET MTV Amazon Cartoon TBS $ MAIN ST.
17 TUBE VILLE Alice s Cable Service VOD ($) Premium networks ($) Showtime HBO Go HBO? HBO Now Netflix YouTube TNT ESPN Disney Basic package BET MTV Amazon Cartoon TBS $ MAIN ST.
18 TUBE VILLE Alice s Cable Service VOD ($) Premium networks ($) Showtime HBO Go HBO Netflix YouTube TNT ESPN Disney Basic package BET MTV? TBS II Amazon Cartoon TBS $ MAIN ST.
19 Back to the Future of Online Video.. Drivers o Technology o Viewer migration and demographics Barriers o programming availability: authentication and time delays successful business models, esp. advertising and aggregation o potential role of ISP pricing: data caps and interconnection
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21 The Glue of Aggregation Benefits to TV networks, MVPDs, and consumers Evidence: the basic cable bundle s long term survival of sports stress Network Fee Annual Growth 2.8% 5.1% 5.4% Average for All Networks Average Sports Network Average for ESPN
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23 Selected Network-based OTT Services Service provider Launch Date Price/ Month Primary Content HBO Now April 2015 $15 HBO content (exclusively through Apple and Cablevision for 3+ months) Sling Feb $20 + $5/extra Sony Vue March 2015 In limited markets Live ESPN, TNT, TBS, CNN, Disney; Premium options include: Sports, Kids, World, Lifestyle, Hollywood packages $50 $ live broadcast & cable networks, including CBS, Fox, NBC, USA, TNT; Sports & Lifestyle packages available Apple TV rumored $25 $35 25 channels, including broadcast & cable like ESPN, Disney, Fox, CBS, Viacom, but not NBCUniversal Source: SNL Kagan, March 2015
24 Back to the Future of Online Video.. Drivers o Technology o Viewer migration and demographics Barriers o programming availability: authentication and time delays o successful business models, esp. advertising and aggregation potential role of ISP pricing: data caps and interconnection
25 Data Caps Widely used by mobile wireless ISPs A trend toward soft caps in wireline o Comcast experiments with 300 GB/mo, then pay more o 4 hrs. of HD video/day 422 GB/mo. (FCC, 2012)
26 Some possible ISP motives for data caps Price discrimination Drive business to a wireline ISP s MVPD branch Degrade over-the-top video
27 Rent Seeking Opportunities for ISPs $/mo. 3% 3 SVODS $8 28% 10% 1 SVOD 2 SVODS $8 $8 70% BROADBAND $40 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
28 Interconnection charges 2014 contracts between Netflix and four largest ISPs ( Comcast, TWC, AT&T, Verizon)
29 Interconnection of Netflix with ISPs Netflix Cogent/ Akamai ISPs Subscribers
30 Infamous Netflix Interconnection dispute
31 My Vision of the Future 1) Technology and demographic driven growth of online video Progress of online advertising? e.g.: Goldfarb (2013), Chen & Stallaert (2014); Lambrecht & Tucker (2013); Tucker (2012) 2) Large scale online aggregation 3) ISPs will find a way to extract online video rents and vertically integrate into online content 4) Don t count out the MVPDs, especially cable
32 End
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