20/20 Vision? Overview of the Latest Workforce Projections for

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1 20/20 Vision? Overview of the Latest Workforce Projections for Stephen N. Collier, Ph.D. Director and Professor Office of Health Professions Education and Workforce Development School of Health Professions

4 BLS employs a macroeconomic model the model comprises 744 variables, 543 of which are estimated through equations that describe the U.S. economy. The remaining 201 variable are exogenous: their values must be provided to the model in order to calculate a solution of the period in question Employment Outlook : The U.S. Economy in 2020: Recovery in Uncertain Times, page 22, Monthly Labor Review, January 2012, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor

6 Healthcare Retirement Rates (largest decline in retirement rates among all workforce sectors of the U.S. economy) Percent of healthcare workforce retired within 12 months approx 4% 1.55% Source: The Conference Board, as reported by John Commins in Health Leaders Media, May 25, 2011

7 U.S. Workforce Employment Numbers listed are in thousands of jobs Occupation Employment Change Total job openings Number due to growth and net replacements, Number Percent Total, all occupations 143, ,537 20, ,787 Community and social services occupations ( ) 2,403 2, ,098 Education, training and library occupations ( ) 9,194 10,597 1, ,398 Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations ( ) 7,799 9,819 2, ,591 Healthcare support occupations ( ) 4,190 5,634 1, ,042 Sales and related occupations ( ) 14,916 16,785 1, ,454 Office and administrative support occupations ( ) 22,603 24,938 2, ,450 Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations ( ) 5,429 6, ,026 Production occupations ( ) 8,594 8, ,231 Source: table prepared by Stephen N. Collier using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational employment projections to 2020, Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter , Bureau of Labor Statistics.

8 Because of the severity of the recession, the 2010 starting point is quite low, thus some of the projected growth represents a climb out from the deep recession The January Review page 2, Monthly Labor Review, January 2012, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor

9 The BLS projections are built on the assumption of a full-employment economy in 2020 Employment Outlook : Overview of Projections to 2020, page 3, Monthly Labor Review, January 2012, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor

10 Overall employment is projected to increase about 14 percent during the decade with more than half a million new jobs expected for each of four occupations registered nurses, retail salespersons, home health aides, and personal care aides Employment Outlook : Occupational Employment Projections to 2020, page 84, Monthly Labor Review, January 2012, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor

11 Occupation Health Workforce Employment Numbers listed are in thousands of jobs Employment Number Change Number Percent Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, Total, all occupations 143, ,537 20, ,787 Healthcare practitioners & technical occupations 7,799 9,819 2, ,591 Healthcare support occupation 4,190 5,634 1, ,042 Physicians and surgeons Registered nurses 2,737 3, ,207 Occupational therapists Physical therapists Physician assistants Speech-language pathologists Athletic trainers Medical & clinical lab technologists Medical & clinical lab technicians Dental hygienists Radiologic technologists and technicians Respiratory therapists Home health aides 1,018 1, Medical assistants Source: table prepared by Stephen N. Collier using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational employment projections to 2020, Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter , Bureau of Labor Statistics.

12 Health Professions BLS Projections (thousands of jobs) Occupation Total job openings due to growth and net replacement, Percent Change Clin Lab Technologists & Technicians Dental Hygienists Dieticians & Nutritionists Home Health Aides Medical Assistants Med Records & Health Info Technicians Occupational Therapists Pharmacists Physical Therapists Physician Assistants Physicians & Surgeons Radiologic Technologists & Technicians Registered Nurses 1, Respiratory Therapists Speech-Language Pathologists Table prepared by Stephen N. Collier based on data from Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational Employment Projections to 2020, Monthly Labor Review February 2012, and counterpart articles November 2004, February 2005, and November 2009.

13 Health Workforce Employment Numbers listed are in thousands of jobs Occupation Employment Number Number Change Percent Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, Audiologists Occupational therapists Physician assistants Physical therapists Speech-language pathologists Medical and health services managers ( ) Source: table prepared by Stephen N. Collier using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational employment projections to 2020, Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter , Bureau of Labor Statistics

14 Health Workforce Employment Numbers listed are in thousands of jobs Occupation Employment Number Number Change Percent Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, Athletic trainers Dietitians & nutritionists Health Educators ( ) Medical Records and Health Information Technicians Medical & Clinical Lab Technologists Nuclear medicine technologists Recreational therapists Source: table prepared by Stephen N. Collier using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational employment projections to 2020, Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter , Bureau of Labor Statistics

15 Health Workforce Employment Numbers listed are in thousands of jobs Occupation Employment Change Total job Number openings due to growth and net replacements, Number Percent Dental hygienists Diagnostic medical sonographers Dietetic technicians Medical & clinical lab technicians Occupational therapist assistants Physical therapist assistants Registered nurses 2,737 3, ,207 Radiation therapists Radiologic technologists and technicians Respiratory therapists Source: table prepared by Stephen N. Collier using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational employment projections to 2020, Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter , Bureau of Labor Statistics

16 Health Workforce Employment Numbers listed are in thousands of jobs Occupation Employment Change Total job Number openings due to growth and net replacements, Number Percent Dental assistants Emergency medical technicians and paramedics Home health aides 1,018 1, Licensed practical & licensed vocational nurses Medical assistants Medical transcriptionists Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 1,505 1, Pharmacy technicians Surgical technologists Source: table prepared by Stephen N. Collier using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational employment projections to 2020, Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter , Bureau of Labor Statistics

17 Factors Effecting Utilization

18 given the severity of the most recent recession and the slowness of recovery to date, BLS recognizes that the current set of projections faces more uncertainly than usual Employment Outlook : Overview of Projections to 2020, page 5, Monthly Labor Review, January 2012, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor

20 Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce THE RECESSION THAT BEGAN IN DECEMBER OF 2007 IS ALREADY 30 MONTHS OLD, BUT THE U.S. ECONOMY WILL NOT RECOVER ITS PRE-RECESSION EMPLOYMENT LEVELS FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER TWO YEARS. FROM THERE, IT WILL TAKE AN ADDITIONAL THREE YEARS TO MAKE UP FOR LOST GROWTH AND CREATE A JOB MARKET STRONG ENOUGH TO EMPLOY BOTH THE CASUALTIES OF THE RECESSION AND THE MILLIONS OF NEW WORKERS WHO WILL STREAM INTO THE WORKFORCE FROM SCHOOLS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. (PAGE 109)

21 Affordable Care Act passed March 2010 Features: 32 million newly covered by insurance by 2019 Accountable care organizations Bundled payments Medical home CMS reduction in physician payment Insurance reforms

23 Current Employment What are the available jobs for graduates now vs. anticipated jobs 3-5 years from now? What to do about it now and not be caught short or in excess in 3-5 years?

24 Workplace personnel needs change more rapidly than educational programs can respond a local personnel need is identified Program planning occurs (6 mos-1year) Hiring a program director, accreditation, curriculum development, faculty hiring (1-2 years) Program implementation (2 years) First graduates (4 or more yrs from identification)

26 PROGRAM N ENTERING CLASS APPLICANTS ENTERING CLASS ENROLLMENT CAPACITY STUDENTS ACTUALLY ENROLLED IN ENTERING CLASS APPLICANTS/ACTUAL ENROLLMENT Athletic Training Cardiovascular Perfusion Technology Clinical Laboratory Sciences (Medical Technology) Cytotechnology Dental Hygiene Diagnostic Medical Sonography Dietetics Emergency Medical Sciences Health Administration Health Information Management Nuclear Medicine Technology Nursing Occupational Therapy Physical Therapy Physician Assistant Radiation Therapy Technology Radiography Rehabilitation Counseling Respiratory Therapist Speech-Language Path. & Audiology ASAHP Applicants and Enrollment by Program, 2010, all institutions

27 BLS Projection Assumptions (and Cautions) Because of the severity of the recession, the 2010 starting point is quite low BLS projection are built on the assumption of a full-employment economy in 2020 [growth projections are not linear by year snc] BLS projections face more uncertainly than usual Health care & social assistance most rapidly growing segment of the economy,

28 Questions/Discussion Stephen N. Collier, Ph.D., Professor & Director Office of Health Professions Education and Workforce Development (205) School of Health Professions University of Alabama at Birmingham

Health Care Employment Projections:

Health Care Employment Projections: An Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Projections 2010-2020 March 2012 The Center for Health Workforce Studies School of Public Health, University at