Predictive Analytics for Production to Increase Man & Machine Efficiency

Transcription

1 Predictive Analytics for Production to Increase Man & Machine Efficiency Britta Hilt MD Copyright

2 Prof. A.-W. Scheer IS Predict & Scheer Group Copyright Visionary, researcher and author of standard works for business information systems Member of the council for innovation and growth of the German Government President of the German Association for Information Technology (BITKOM ) Ranked as 2nd most important German IT person (of 100) by Computerwoche magazin (after Hasso Plattner / SAP) in 2011 Founder of international software companies IDS Scheer & IMC AG Sole Shareholder of Scheer Group GmbH Employees Plan Turnover (million ) 50 0 Locations Plan Germany Saarbrücken, Freiburg, Hamburg, Munich Australia Melbourne Austria Wien, Graz Benelux Utrecht France Paris Great Britain London Rumania Sibiu Switzerland Zürich, Basel Turkey Istanbul Ukraine Dnepropetrovsk 2

3 Discover Your Data s Secrets If you have questions and their answers are hidden, cut in pieces and incomplete in your data then, finds the answers for you! without data scientist expertise! What? How? For? Analysis, simulation, prediction, recommendations & optimized control Automatic recognition of patterns & anomalies and Discovery of inefficiencies & their reasons Flexible use cases, i.e. maintenance, energy/resource savings, capacity/demand planning, order processing, Efficiency increase for man & machinery 3

4 Resource Intelligence Projects Increased efficiency for Man & Machinery thanks to Predictive Control More efficient production / Increased energy efficiency Optimized logistics ` Reduced maintenance costs The predictive, self-learning & flexible IT solution to increase resource efficiency (Honored with 7 Innovation Awards) 4

5 Example Production incl. Simulation Reduced Operational Pellet Plant 1/3 Example Pellet Plant Deliver wood chips Dry wood chips Mill wood chips Press saw dust into pallets Analysis 1: When reduced energy? No permanent usage of both wood dryers required. Which weather conditions are best to (not) run dyer in order to save energy? Correlation analysis Inter-relations among weather conditiosn / dryer performance / energy consumption Fact Question Analysis 2: Heat recovery adding value? Via heat recovery, air for dryer is heated to 20 degrees C How much energy can be saved at wood dryer? Approach Simulation a) Energy demand was predicted with accuracy between %. This means that influenced on energy consumption were discovered & analysis for saving potentialas realistic. b) Air temperature was simulated with 20 degrees Celsius. Energy demand was predicted. 5

6 Variations in oven Energy forecast for energy planning & efficiency analysis Energy Demand Example Production Predictive Dispatching Steel mass Optimized Energy Dispatching Objective: Efficient energy dispatching and planned energy purchase in steel company Way: Enable planning for large energy consumers despite not planable consumption Problem: Highly volatile energy demand which does not seem to be caused by production. Data: Energy consumption & limited production (planning) data Steel width Temperature Required energy Time: 24 h 1 month Predicted Energy Required Energy 8

7 Example: Predictive Maintenance Individual demand-oriented maintenance via anomaly analysis Objective: Increase efficiency via early information on (future) wear & tear Way: Discover first and hidden signs when machinery does not run efficient anymore Condition: Individual & cost-reduced analysis per machine without additional sensors Problem: Strongly volatile energy demand, only engine energy data, no production data Discovery of anomalies between 86% - 100%! 10 minutes: Engine run without disturbances 10 minutes: 51 disturbances due to breaks Discover anomalies in machinery behavior i.e. in resource consumption Evaluate anomalies Irregularities with various strengths and frequency Anomaly Details No regularity in variable energy demand during disturbance Early warning Alert for technical service 10

8 Resource Intelligence Projects Increased efficiency for Man & Machinery thanks to Predictive Control More efficient production / Increased energy efficiency Optimized logistics ` Reduced maintenance costs The predictive, self-learning & flexible IT solution to increase resource efficiency (Honored with 7 Innovation Awards) 11

9 ff Contact: IS Predict GmbH Scheer Tower Uni Campus Nord D Saarbrücken Germany Phone , Fax