OUTPERFORM TIP. A Quiet Quarter, Solid Portfolio Diversification Continues. Italian Research 3Q15 Results Milan, November 13, 2015
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- Alaina Spencer
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1 Italian Research 3Q15 Results Milan, November 13, 2015 TIP Price (Eu): Target Price (Eu): OUTPERFORM A Quiet Quarter, Solid Portfolio Diversification Continues SECTOR: Holdings & RE Guglielmo Manetti [email protected] Simone Pozzi [email protected] Seasonally weak quarter. 3Q15 is a seasonally slow month for TIP s core advisory activity, partially offset by lower personnel costs. The quarter was negatively affected by the mark-tomarket accounting of the FCA convertible bond, which was quite volatile in the quarter. Net of this effect (shown in the financial income line) we estimate an ordinary trend in line with last year. Investment pipeline and upcoming newsflow should remain rich. After the more recent investments (stake increases in Be, Interpump, Prysmian - through Clubtre holding and Azimut-Benetti) TIP has announced that it has increased its investment in Ferrari even after the IPO. Total investments amount to Eu18mn, at an estimated carry price slightly above current prices. The upcoming investment pipeline might include Octo Telematics, a company with Eu120mn of EBITDA involved in providing services to the insurance sector (the black box technology that is receiving a lot of interest from motor insurers). The press reports that Octo should file for an IPO over the next 2 years, and TIP has just underwritten Eu8mn of loans issued by a vehicle that includes Octo s top managers, so a more substantial involvement of TIP in Octo Telematics prior to the IPO would not come as any surprise. The very successful listing of AAAP on the Nasdaq (a tech company where TIO own a small economic interest through its TIPO investment vehicle) it s another confirmation of the wise investment strategy, despite a marginal direct economic impact for TIP. We would not rule out some further developments in the company s FCA/Ferrari stakes. We believe the stake in FCA was partly used as a means to get indirect exposure to Ferrari, and with the Ferrari spinoff expected to take place by 4 th January (the date is yet to be officially confirmed) we would not be surprised if a reduction in the FCA stake were considered. Updated estimates and valuation. We have reduced our FY15 estimates slightly on the back of the volatility witnessed in 3Q15, although most of the negative mark to market impact should have been recovered in October-November, thanks in part to good equity market performances. We are leaving our FY16 estimates and 2015/16 DPS forecasts unchanged. NAV has been adjusted for the most recent transactions and benefitted from recent investment performances. OUTPERFORM confirmed; target from Eu4.0 to Eu4.10. Portfolio diversification and solid asset performances have boosted our valuation, which comes an average between a static and a dynamic NAV, taking into account the fair values of listed assets. The stock is currently trading at a 7% discount to stated NAV and an 18% discount vs dynamic NAV. We continue to see TIP as a high quality, low volatility investment opportunity into excellent listed and nonlisted companies with significant upside potential. Key Figures 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E EBIT (Eu mn) Net profit (Eu mn) EPS - New (Eu) EPS - Old (Eu) DPS (Eu) NAVPS (Eu) Ratios & Multiples 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E P/E Div. Yield 1.1% 2.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% P/NAVPS ROCE TIP - 12m Performance n-14 g-15 m-15 m-15 l-15 s-15 n-15 TIP TIP Rel. to BCI Index (Reb.) RATING: Unchanged TARGET PRICE (Eu): from 4.00 to 4.10 Change in EPS est: 2015A 2016E -6.9% 0.0% STOCK DATA Reuters code: Bloomberg code: TIP.MI TIP IM Performance 1m 3m 12m Absolute 2.9% -2.6% 45.9% Relative 1.1% 1.7% 25.4% 12 months H/L: 3.69/2.40 SHAREHOLDER DATA No. of Ord. shares (mn): 148 Total No. of shares (mn): 148 Mkt Cap Ord (Eu mn): 531 Total Mkt Cap (Eu mn): 531 Mkt Float - ord (Eu mn): 412 Mkt Float (in %): 77.6% Main shareholder: D'Amico SdN 11.3% BALANCE SHEET DATA 2015 Book value (Eu mn): 368 BVPS (Eu): 2.49 P/BV: 1.4 Net Debt (#BadKeyword mn): -75 NAV (Eu mn) 567 Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report The reproduction of the information, recommendations and research produced by Intermonte SIM contained herein, and of any of its parts, is strictly prohibited. None of the contents of this document may be shared with third parties without Company authorization. Intermonte SIM S.p.A. Milan (Italy) - Corso Vittorio Emanuele II, 9 - phone: fax: New York - (USA) - Sales contacts: JPP Eurosecurities, 595 Madison Avenue, phone: +1 (212)
2 3Q15 and FY15716 Earnings Revision Tamburi Investment Partners - Quarterly Results (Eu 000) 3Q14A 3Q15E 3Q15A A/E Revenue from sales and services 1,397 3,950 1,673-58% YoY growth -53% 183% 20% Other revenue % YoY growth -22% 70% 171% Total revenue 1,419 3,987 1,733-57% YoY growth -53% 181% 22% Costs for materials, services and other costs % YoY growth 27% -16% 2% Personnel expense -1,321-2, % YoY growth -95% -65% -52% Depreciation, amortisation and impairment loss % YoY growth 98% 54% -51% Operating profit % YoY growth nm nm nm Financial income 759 3,241-1, % YoY growth -98% 327% -304% Financial expense 335-1,617-1,865 15% YoY growth -151% -583% -656% Profit before adjustments to investments 537 2,488-2, % YoY growth -98% 363% -656% Share of profit (loss) of equity-accounted investees , % YoY growth -6% -70% 170% Net impairment losses on available-for-sale financial assets % YoY growth nm nm nm Profit before tax 1,492 2, % YoY growth -95% 92% -127% Current and deferred taxes % Tax rate -11% 17% -13% Profit for the year 1,991 1, % Source: Intermonte SIM estimates and company data Tamburi Investment Partners S.p.A. - Yearly P&L New Estimates Old Estimates % change (Eu 000) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY15E FY16E FY15E FY16E Revenue from sales and services 7,737 3,450 5,597 9,439 10,382-63% -46% Total revenue 7,863 3,579 5,729 9,568 10,514-63% -46% Costs for materials, services and other costs -2,593-1,761-1,770-1,761-1,770 0% 0% Personnel expense -7,660-6,840-7,182-8,809-9,708-22% -26% Depreciation, amortisation and impairment loss % -36% Operating profit -2,450-5,062-3,265-1,065-1, % 217% Financial income 30,414 37,405 26,994 41,595 25,494-10% 6% Financial expense -8,296-9,125-9,125-9,125-9,125 0% 0% Profit before adjustments to investments 19,668 23,218 14,604 31,405 15,340-26% -5% Share of profit (loss) of equity-accounted investees 4,235 8,194 4,151 4,194 4,151 95% 0% Net impairment losses on available-for-sale financial assets 5, ,106-87% -63% Profit before tax 28,914 31,519 19,164 36,406 20,597-13% -7% Current and deferred taxes ,522-3,833-5,097-5,149-51% -26% Tax rate -1% 8% 20% 14% 25% Profit for the year 26,798 27,107 14,181 29,125 14, % -0.2% 2
3 3 Updated NAV and Valuation TIP - Fair Value Calculation (Eu mn) Valuation method Value P.S. (Eu) Weight Adjusted Net Asset Value % Dynamic Net Asset Value % Fair valuation Fair value p.s. (Eu) 4.11 Source: Intermonte SIM estimates TIP - Net Asset Value (@ mkt price) (Eu mn) Value Stake (%) % on NAV Valuation method Sector LISTED COMPANIES % Amplifon S.p.A % 11.7% Market value Hearing aids Bolzoni S.p.A % 2.1% Market value Fork Lift Digital Magics S.p.A % 0.8% Market value Web incubator Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V % 3.6% Market value Auto Ferrari NV % 3.7% Market value Auto/Luxury HUGO BOSS AG % 9.6% Market value Fashion/Luxury M&C S.p.A % 0.3% Market value Financial Holding Monrif S.p.A % 0.7% Market value Publishing NoemaLife S.p.A % 1.4% Market value Healthcare Servizi Italia S.p.A % 0.4% Market value Healthcare Other listed companies 5.4 n.a. 1.0% Book Value Various NON LISTED COMPANIES % TXR S.r.l (51% Furn Invest - 38% Roche Bobois) % 5.6% Book Value (0,66x EV/Sales) Furniture Club 7 S.r.l. (14% of Ruffini - 32% Moncler) % 16.4% Market value Luxury TIP advisory business % 3.6% 15x adj. PE Finance Other non listed companies 0.8 n.a. 0.1% Book Value Various Azimut Benetti % 7.1% Book Value Yacht/ Luxury ASSOCIATES % Be, Think, Solve, Execute % 3.0% Market value IT Banking Clubitaly s.r.l. (20% Eataly) % 5.9% Book Value Food Retailer Club 3 S.r.l. (5.8% of Prysmian) % 18.6% Market value Cables Gruppo IPG Holding (26.294% of Interpump) % 16.7% Market value Hydraulic Palazzari & Turries Limited % 0.1% Book Value Finance Gatti & Co % 0.0% Book Value Finance TIPO % 1.5% Book Value Finance Net Financial Position % Including recent transactions Holding costs % Est 1% of total assets Treasury shares (0.42%) 2.2 Nov 12, 2015 Total NAV N. of shares (f.d.) Total NAV ps (Eu) 3.83 TIP Market price (Eu) 3.57 Current premium (discount) on NAVPS -6.9% Source: Intermonte SIM estimates & Factset
4 TIP - Dynamic Net Asset Value (@ Intermonte and/or consensus fair value) (Eu mn) Value Stake (%) % on NAV Valuation method Sector LISTED COMPANIES % Amplifon S.p.A % 10.8% Intermonte Fair Value Hearing aids Bolzoni S.p.A % 2.4% Intermonte Fair Value Fork Lift Digital Magics S.p.A % 0.8% Market value Web incubator Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V % 3.7% Intermonte Fair Value Auto Ferrari NV % 3.6% Consensus Fair Value Auto/Luxury HUGO BOSS AG % 9.7% Consensus Fair Value Fashion/Luxury M&C S.p.A % 0.3% Market value Financial Holding Monrif S.p.A % 0.6% Market value Publishing NoemaLife S.p.A % 1.2% Market value Healthcare Servizi Italia S.p.A % 0.5% Intermonte Fair Value Healthcare Other listed companies 5.4 n.a. 0.8% Book Value Various NON LISTED COMPANIES % TXR S.r.l (51% Furn Invest - 38% Roche Bobois) % 4.9% Book Value (0,66x EV/Sales) Furniture Club 7 S.r.l. (14% of Ruffini - 32% Moncler) % 17.3% Intermonte Fair Value Luxury TIP advisory business % 3.2% 15x adj. PE Finance Other non listed companies 0.8 n.a. 0.1% Book Value Various Azimut Benetti % 7.1% Book Value Yacht/ Luxury ASSOCIATES % Be, Think, Solve, Execute % 4.1% Intermonte Fair Value IT Banking Clubitaly s.r.l. (20% Eataly) % 6.8% Intermonte Fair Value Food Retailer Club 3 S.r.l. (5.8% of Prysmian) % 18.8% Intermonte Fair Value Cables Gruppo IPG Holding (26.294% of Interpump) % 15.2% Intermonte Fair Value Hydraulic Palazzari & Turries Limited % 0.1% Book Value Finance Gatti & Co % 0.0% Book Value Finance TIPO % 1.3% Book Value Finance Net Financial Position % Including recent transactions Holding costs % Est 1% of total assets Treasury shares (0.42%) 2.2 Nov 12, 2015 Total NAV N. of shares (f.d.) Total NAV ps (Eu) 4.38 TIP Market price (Eu) 3.57 Current premium (discount) on NAVPS -18.4% Source: Intermonte SIM estimates & Factset 4
5 5 Performance Analysis Tamburi Investments Partners - Main Listed Asset Performance Stock Price (Local ccy) Mkt cap (Local ccy) % weight on NAV 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months YTD 1 Year 2 Years Tamburi Investment Partners S.p.A % -2.6% 1.6% 36.8% 45.9% 60.4% Prysmian S.p.A , % 0.3% -12.5% -4.8% 26.9% 32.5% 2.8% Moncler SpA , % -0.8% -9.4% -4.4% 42.8% 50.2% Interpump Group S.p.A , % 12.4% 5.1% -2.6% 22.6% 36.4% 73.7% Amplifon S.p.A , % -0.1% -6.8% -3.5% 41.6% 45.9% 81.6% HUGO BOSS AG , % -14.3% -17.0% -15.7% -10.7% -12.1% -6.1% Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V , % -5.4% -11.2% -3.0% 36.0% 42.7% 124.0% Ferrari NV , % Be Think, Solve, Execute S.p.A % 3.5% -5.8% -11.3% 10.4% 18.1% 88.1% Bolzoni S.p.A % 9.9% 3.2% 8.4% 39.0% 37.5% 22.1% NoemaLife S.p.A % -0.6% 12.5% 10.2% 39.5% 36.5% 71.4% Monrif S.p.A % 1.7% -1.1% -13.6% 2.9% -0.7% 6.0% Digital Magics S.p.A % -5.5% 0.4% -5.0% 15.7% 19.0% -28.0% Servizi Italia S.p.A % 5.6% -7.5% -18.8% 1.3% 5.3% -8.1% M&C S.p.A % 15.6% 22.1% 28.9% 65.4% 68.2% -9.9% Average performance 1.7% -2.2% -2.7% 25.6% 29.2% 34.8% FTSE Italia All-Share 1.2% -5.0% -3.2% 19.7% 18.8% 18.8% FTSE MIB 0.6% -5.5% -4.0% 17.7% 16.3% 17.2% FTSE Star Italy 0.3% -4.0% -2.3% 17.9% 20.1% 26.5% FTSE Mid Cap Italy 1.2% -7.0% -5.0% 23.5% 22.1% 22.6% FTSE Small Cap Italy 4.6% -2.3% 0.9% 38.0% 44.9% 29.2% TIP - Relative performance vs Italian indexes 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y FTSE Italia All-Share 1.7% 2.5% 4.8% 17.1% 27.2% 41.6% FTSE MIB 2.4% 3.0% 5.7% 19.1% 29.7% 43.3% FTSE Star Italy 2.7% 1.4% 3.9% 18.9% 25.8% 33.9% FTSE Mid Cap Italy 1.7% 4.4% 6.6% 13.3% 23.9% 37.8% FTSE Small Cap Italy -1.7% -0.2% 0.8% -1.1% 1.0% 31.3% Source: Factset Italian Holdings - Performance Stock Price (Eu) Mkt cap (Eu mn) 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months YTD 1 Year 2 Years Tamburi Investment Partners S.p.A % -2.6% 1.6% 36.8% 45.9% 60.4% EXOR S.p.A , % -1.4% 5.7% 31.7% 32.0% 55.6% Compagnie Industriali Riunite S.p.A % 12.0% 0.1% 20.5% 33.3% -16.0% ASTM S.p.A , % -2.1% -2.1% 26.6% 28.7% 6.7% Italmobiliare S.p.A , % 9.9% 43.3% 128.7% 135.6% 65.4% DeA Capital S.p.A % 5.0% -7.5% 8.4% 16.8% 30.4% COFIDE-Gruppo De Benedetti S.p.A % 2.7% -5.6% 7.5% 26.6% -20.4% Immsi S.p.A % -8.4% -16.7% -1.5% 6.0% 13.9% Caltagirone S.p.A % -14.0% 6.7% 24.2% 24.6% 32.2% Average performance 5.8% 0.5% 3.0% 30.8% 38.0% 21.0% FTSE Italia All-Share 1.2% -5.0% -3.2% 19.7% 18.8% 18.8% FTSE MIB 0.6% -5.5% -4.0% 17.7% 16.3% 17.2% FTSE Star Italy 6.1% -1.1% 1.6% 33.0% 39.2% 58.1% FTSE Mid Cap Italy 1.2% -7.0% -5.0% 23.5% 22.1% 22.6% FTSE Small Cap Italy 4.6% -2.3% 0.9% 38.0% 44.9% 29.2% Source: Factset
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DETAILS ON STOCKS RECOMMENDATION Stock NAME TIP Current Recomm: OUTPERFORM Previous Recomm: OUTPERFORM Current Target (Eu): 4.10 Previous Target (Eu): 4.00 Current Price (Eu): 3.59 Previous Price (Eu): 3.31 Date of report: 13/11/2015 Date of last report: 22/09/2015 Copyright 2010 by Intermonte SIM - All rights reserved It is a violation of national and international copyright laws to reproduce all or part of this publication by , xerography, facsimile or any other means. The Copyright laws impose heavy liability for such infringement. The Reports of Intermonte SIM are provided to its clients only. If you are not a client of Intermonte SIM and receive ed, faxed or copied versions of the reports from a source other than Intermonte SIM you are violating the Copyright Laws. This document is not for attribution in any publication, and you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this without the explicit written consent of Intermonte SIM. 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Q3 results subdued, Outlook remains good; BUY January 28, 2016 Rohan Korde [email protected] +91 22 66322235 Rating BUY Price Rs4,103 Target Price Rs4,844 Implied Upside 18.1% Sensex 24,470 Nifty
INVESTMENT CASE FULLY INTACT
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GAIL (India) Ltd. INR 346
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Marti Otel. Martı REIT OUTPERFORM MARKETPERFORM. 01 November 2010. Equity / Small Cap. / Tourism. Upside Potential* 38%
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potential of business still not fully exploited; PT raised to 64.00 Q3 2015 results vs. estimates IFRS Q3 15 Q2 15 qoq Q3 14 yoy Q3 15e delta
H y p o p or t A G # Scalability $T ypcap$ 1611 3 1 1 x 6519 2 Equity flash Quarterly earnings Financial Services Germany Hypoport AG Buy Target 64.00 EUR vs 57.00 EUR Price : 55.25 EUR Upside : 16 % Est.chg
GEFRAN. 1Q16 results in line. Buy (maintained) Company report. 13 May 2016. Electrical equipment
GEFRAN Company report Electrical equipment Data Shares Outstanding (m): 14 Market Cap. (EURm): 25 Enterprise Value (EURm): 55 Free Float (%): 33.2% Av. Daily Trad. Vol. (m): 0.01 Main Shareholder: Reuters/Bloomberg:
BUY Target: 215p. Strategic impact: cross-selling. Financial impact: good value
UK Daily Letter 1 K3 Business Technology Group KBT : AIM : 144p BUY Target: 215p Bob Liao, CFA 44.20.7050.6654 [email protected] COMPANY STATISTICS: 52-week Range: 0.82-1.50 Avg. Daily Vol. (000s):
BANCA SISTEMA GROWING ACROSS ALL BUSINESS LINES WITH A NET INCOME UP BY 21% YoY 1
PRESS RELEASE BANCA SISTEMA GROWING ACROSS ALL BUSINESS LINES WITH A NET INCOME UP BY 21% YoY 1 Business performance Factoring: turnover +20% yoy and growing customer base from 124 in 2014 to 294 in 2015
PRIMA INDUSTRIE. Further margin improvement. Buy (maintained) Company Update
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Increasing estimates and PT on expectation of solid earnings momentum. Growth momentum and turnaround of insurance business
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Techno Electric & Engineering Limited
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Minda Industries Ltd. INR 886
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euromicron AG Corrections to financial statements Hold 14.00 EUR
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THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS APPROVES THE HALF-YEARLY REPORT AT 3O JUNE 2007: CONSOLIDATED NET INCOME: 9.1 MILLION ( 16.1 MILLION IN FIRST HALF 2006)
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FIRST CAPITAL. New cycle. Buy (maintained) Company Update. 18 April 2016. Financial Holding
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Company Report. New China Life (1336 HK) Hold Life & Health Insurance Industry 2013E target price: HK$34.30 (from HK$24.
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Expert System. Strong organic growth with acquisition upside. Growth in annual licensing key to shareholder return
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GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare
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20 May 2015 OpenLimit Holding AG. FIRST BERLIN Equity Research
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Mphasis. FY17 could be a year of revenue growth. Source: Company Data; PL Research
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Tupras OUTPERFORM (M) 15 February 2010. Strong 2009 results on refining side...
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ABB India Equity Research Engineering & Capital Goods February 8, 2016 Result Update Emkay Your success is our success Strong operational performance CMP Target Price Rs1,134 Rs1,407 ( ) Rating Upside
Larsen & Toubro. Source: Company Data; PL Research
Order inflow surprise, challenges on profitability continues! January 29, 2016 Kunal Sheth [email protected] +91 22 66322257 Samir Bendre [email protected] +91 22 66322256 Rating BUY Price Rs1,102
Promising FY 2018 targets
A cc or # $TypCap$ 1628 1 0 4 2 Page 1/7 Equity flash Trading Update Automotive BUY (BUY) Target EUR 2.30 (EUR 2.00) Price (last closing price) : 1.10 EUR Upside : 109% Est. change 2015e 2016e EPS - -
The Ramco Cements. Source: Company Data; PL Research
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Exhibit 1: Financial summary of First Tractor in 1H12-1H14 1H12 2H12 1H13 2H13 1H14 (% YoY)
Capital Goods Manufacturing ector August 29, 214 Company Report Rating: HOLD TP: HK$ 4.8 H-hare price (HK$) 5.17 Est. share price return (7.16%) Est. dividend yield 1.39% Est. total return (5.77%) First
No Signs of Cannibalization
Tony Wible, CFA 908-470-3160 [email protected] Media and Entertainment Price: $84.98 Fair Value Estimate: $100.00 52-Week Range: $60.80 - $88.25 Market Cap (MM): $70,075 Shr.O/S-Diluted (mm): 824.6 Average
Cinda International. Hold (Initiation) Target price: HK$1.55. Facing intense competition from Chinese brokers in HK; initiate at Hold
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In line performance. Results update 4Q2015. Banks UAE 28 January 2016 DUBAI ISLAMIC BANK
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for 2014 achieved but increased uncertainty due to reduced spending in the oil & gas industry 2014E figures: Underlying EBITDA above our expectations
A cc or # Targets $T ypcap$ 1628 1 0 4 2 Page 1/8 Equity flash Trading Update Alternative Energy BUY (BUY) Target EUR 6.50 (EUR 7.00) Price (last closing price) : 5.14 EUR Upside : 26% Est. change 2015e
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Britannia Industries
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OptimizeRx OPRX. Buy. Platform Potential Continues to Grow $0.87 $4.00. Refer to the last two pages of this report for Disclosures
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Ituran Location & Control Ltd. In-line Quarter, Big Dividend, Maintain Outperform
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ZetaDisplay. Europe leads the way. EPaccess
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China Pacific (2601 HK) Unrated Life & health industry
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Jubilant Life Sciences
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PI Industries. 2QFY16 Result Review HOLD. Custom synthesis restricted 2Q revenue growth ; maintain HOLD. Sector: AGRI
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Aksa Enerji Outperform (Maintained)
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price target of 7.40. We reiterate our Buy rating. Figure 1: Reported figures versus forecasts Source: First Berlin Equity Research, SFC Energy AG
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Fidelity Bankshares, Inc.
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Kotak Mahindra Bank Rs 685
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