Looking Ahead to 2020

Transcription

1 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten MIT Second International Engineering Systems Symposium Looking Ahead to 2020 Panel Contribution by Prof. Dipl.-Ing. Heinz Stoewer, M.Sc. President Space Associates GmbH, Germany Emeritus Professor and Chair for Space Systems Engineering, TU Delft Former Managing Director German Space Agency, DARA GmbH Distinguished Visiting Scientist, Jet Propulsion Laboratory

2 Predicting Titelmasterformat the Future durch in Engineering Klicken bearbeiten Systems Zweite Why are Ebene so many of today's complex systems over budget and behind schedule? Do we have a strategy to counteract this? Is there a chance to overcome this and have solutions by 2020? Btw: whether you call it engineering systems or systems engineering does it matter? Not really as long as they are practiced with an end-to-end mindset

3 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten WHY DO SYSTEMS FAIL?

4 System Failures have many Reasons - sometimes very small ones LECTURES AT KEIO UNIVERSITY, TOKYO, BY PROF. DIPL.-ING. HEINZ STOEWER, M. Sc., PRESIDENT SPACE ASSOCIATES, GERMANY, OCTOBER 20-23, 2008

5 System Failures have many Reasons - sometimes very big ones: cost, schedule, or plain human shortcomings, or several of them Can we afford our own Future??? Infrastructure Programmes, e.g. the Big Dig, high speed rail systems, energy and health systems, etc LECTURES AT KEIO UNIVERSITY, TOKYO, BY PROF. DIPL.-ING. HEINZ STOEWER, M. Sc., PRESIDENT SPACE ASSOCIATES, GERMANY, OCTOBER 20-23, 2008

6 Sometimes Systems fail because.. Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten PMs and SEs are too process focussed PMs and SEs do not have sufficient depth in the key disciplines of their projects The hard engineering or production is faulty or the quality is not up to standard

7 .. MOSTLY HOWEVER THEY FAIL FOR OTHER REASONS Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten - PERFORMANCE & SCOPE AS DESCRIBED BY BAD REQUIREMENTS - BAD COST ESTIMATES AND BUY- INS - BAD SCHEDULE ESTIMATES - INSUFFICIENT TECHNOLOGY MATURITY - HUMAN SHORTCOMINGS - BAD RISK MANAGEMENT These are largely soft engineering disciplines, which are more difficult to deal with than hard engineering - - but they make up the day-to-day life of SEs and PMs!

8 Soft Engineering Disciplines drive our Engineering World who can teach them adequately? How can we improve our models and judgements? How to make historic data and lessons learned available to avoid the same mistakes over and over again? How can we introduce sufficient hard elements into SE and PM (eg data bases, models, tools, etc) so that predictions, variants and deviations become more reliable/manageable? How can we educate SEs and PMs to deal with soft engineering, to help them develop some critical judgement? Will we as a systems community be really professional in these disciplines by 2020? LECTURE at the US NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL, MONTEREY, CA, by PROF. DIPL.-ING. HEINZ STOEWER, M. Sc., SPACE ASSOCIATES, FEBUARY 5, 2009

9 Decision Making and Innovation Titelmasterformat durch can beklicken tough at bearbeiten times!.. especially if there is no vision of where to go and no strategy of how to get there!

10 Are the System Engineers (SEs) and the Programme and Project Managers (PMs) really communicating and working together? LECTURE at the US NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL, MONTEREY, CA, by PROF. DIPL.-ING. HEINZ STOEWER, M. Sc., SPACE ASSOCIATES, FEBUARY 5, 2009

11 WEB OF SKILLS - - THE INDUSTRY WORKFORCE Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten SPECIALIZATION AND MULTIDISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION POLICY, STRATEGY, PLANNING, ADMINISTRATION (ENTERPRISE INTEGRATION) PROJECT MANAGEMENT INTEGRATION SYSTEMS) ENGINEERING INTEGRATION TECHNOLOGY / MANUFACT BUSINESS INTEGRATION INTEGRATION S P E C I A L I Z E D D I S C I P L I N E S VERTICAL SKILLS HORIZONTAL SKILLS

12 I see two Grand Challenges for getting there (2020) Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten Emphasis on Early Phases! Who is the PM? Who the SE? Close alignement of PM and SE

13 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten Let s not forget that one of the challenges for PMs and SEs is continuous learning! IT HAS GONE FROM BAD TO WORSE! NOWADAYS ONE IS NOT ABLE TO LEARN FOR THE REST OF ONES LIFE ANYMORE! OUR ANCESTORS COULD ALWAYS FOLLOW WHAT THEY HAD LEARNED IN THEIR YOUTH - - BUT WE HAVE TO RE-LEARN EVERY FIVE YEARS JOHANN WOLFGANG von GOETHE, 1809