N EW M EGA TRENDS. Implications for our Future Lives. macmilian. Sarwant Singh

Transcription

1 N EW M EGA TRENDS Implications for our Future Lives Sarwant Singh macmilian

2 List of Charts and Tables Preface xiii xv 1 Introduction to the New Mega Trends 1 New Mega Trends: The definition 3 Why are the New Mega Trends important? 4 2 Smart is the New Green 6 Defining Smart 6 Smart connected home 8 The Smart medical home of the future 10 Smart cars 12 Smart energy 14 Smart meters: Making home chores intelligent 15 Smart grid 17 Smart city 18 Smart Factories: Factories of the future 21 Macro to micro / 24 Convergence of Mega Trends leads to convergence of competition 25 Case Study: Schneider Electric goes Smart 26 3 emobility 34 The electric revolution 34 emobility is above and beyond cars 35 Case study: Better Place as an emobility integrator 37 The macro to micro of emobility 38 Two- to six-wheelers all go electric 40 Wireless charging 41 VII

3 Cradle to grave 42 Will utilities be the new oil barons? 43 4 Innovating to Zero 46 Net Zero cities: Carbon-neutral capitals of the world 47 Zero waste: From cradle to cradle 47 Net Zero building: Zero 'home improvement' 48 Carbon-neutral city: Arriving at 'destination Zero' 48 Case study: Copenhagen first carbon-neutral capital of the world 49 Zero initiatives at work: Faster, safer and flexible Zero work culture 50 Zero hours contract: Working without time commitment 52 Zero accidents: Super Zero to the rescue 52 Zero at work: Zero latency, Zero s and Zero incubation period 52 Zero s: A best practices case study 53 Macro to micro 55 Retail 55 Manufacturing 56 From Zero defects to producing perfect products 56 Energy: Zero carbon countries 57 Automotive and transport 58 Health care 59 Conclusion: Countdown to Zero - much ado about 'nothing' 59 5 Urbanisation: From Mega-Cities, Mega-Regions, Mega-Corridors and Mega-Slums to Mega Opportunities 61 Mega-cities, Mega-regions, Mega-corridors and Mega-slums 61 The vertical city 63 Urban mobility The new hub and spoke enterprise model 70 The macro to micro of urbanisation 72 Case study: Siemens focuses on city as the customer 74 Urban shopper will not come to stores, but stores will need to come to the shopper Social Trends that will Model our Future Society 81 Six degrees apart: Geo-socialisation 81 Geo-socialisation: Who is on your block? 82 VIII

4 Geo-social commerce: Connecting while buying and buying when connecting 82' Macro to micro implications 83 Location-based incentives: Check me out when I check in 83 Catch me if you can: The Jimmy Choo campaign 84 Gigwalk: Walking is my business 84 Virtual dollar: Invisible good, visible me 85 Augmented reality: I digitally manoeuvre my world 85 Augmented social networking: I connect with people I see 86 Online communities: Together we influence 86 Crouching social tiger, hidden digital dragon: Social appetite from Chinese consumers 86 Robo-slaves 87 Macro to micro implications 90 Robo-etition 91 Robots in our bodies and in our homes 91 Decade of the ipad generation and Little Emperors 92 Case study: Earth calling Gen Y - NASA's strategy to reach out from Mars to Millennial 93 Macro to micro 96 Look East, not West, for this game-changer generation 96 End of China's single-child policy 98 Generational political shift 99 Reverse brain drain and global talent wars 101 Macro to micro implications 103 Hire educated global, working local 103 Nations turn headhunters 104 Middle bulge: Dominance of the middle class 105 Girl power Health, Wellness and Weil-Being 111 Health, wellness and well-being redefined as the mind, body and soul 112 Future of health, wellness and well-being 114 Power patients 114 Shift in health care services delivery to outside hospitals 114 Health care tourism 116 Increased sophistication of hospitals that remain 117 Gene therapy: The dawn of personalised medicine 117 Tissue engineering: Custom body parts made to order 119 ix

5 Cybernetics: Part man, part machine - the future of prosthetics 120 Era of immortality? 121 Wonder and nature-changing drugs and treatments 122 Macro to micro 123 Nutraceutical (functional foods and beverages) and nutricosmetics market to have a makeover 123 Case study: Brand differentiation using health, wellness and well-being 126 Hamburger tax: A state-based well-being system 127 Changing dynamics in the Pharmaceuticals market with drug patents falling off the cliff 128 The medical home of the future 130 Robo-doctors 130 Size matters: Nanotechnology in health care applications 131 Globalisation is globalising health care 134 Moore's Law applied to medical technology 134 Low-cost medical equipment 135 Health care industry shakeout Business Model of the Decade - Value for Many 141 Business models of the future 142 Customisation and personalisation 142 Co-creation 144 Pay as you go 145 Collaborative buying 146 The one-off business model 147 Sharing-what is yours is mine 148 Free-premium (Freemium) 148 Community-based business models 149 Pay or sell with a tweet 149 Value for many - The business model of the decade 150 Case study: Ford - the new value for the Blue Oval Connectivity and Convergence 157 Convergence of products, technologies and industries 158 Converging gizmos: One product, many applications 158 New product avatars: Make way for 'phoncierge' and 'I'm watch' 159 Future connected home: Intelligently connected devices 160 Macro to micro 161

6 Data deluge: Say hello to the zettabyte era 161 Implications for work culture: Collaborative and connected workplace with each employee a CEO 163 Implications for new business models: It's all about convergence 164 M commerce: The black gold of the digital era 164 Location-based personalised advertising 166 Mega-connectivity platforms of the decade 167 Convergence of industries 167 Connected health care 167 Connected car, connected mobility 172 Convergence in energy, manufacturing and growth of biometrics 174 Implications of connectivity and convergence on personal lives 175 Digital citizenship: Identity Everything social: Digitalise my life and garden 176 Augmented reality 177 Virtual world: Welcome to your second life 178. Conclusion From Planes to Trains - The Era of High-Speed Rail 181 Meet the Jetsons around the world 182 The 2020 Trans-Siberian Rail Link: The new Route The Chinese Rail juggernaut 187 Case study: Chinese rail industry, the global high-speed juggernaut 189 Selling sand to the Arabs ' 193 Macro to Micro implications of high-speed rail 194 High-speed logistics 196 Old competitors, new battles New Battlefields: Space Jam and Cyber Warfare 201 Space jam 201 Race for space 203 World War III: Two new domains of conflict 204 Macro to micro 206 Satellite manufacturing - size matters 206 Space tourists, space hotels and weddings in space - what next? 210 The English weather forecast perfected 211 XI

7 Space-based solar power stations 211 Service-based satellite business model 212 Implications and opportunities for cyber-security 214 Uncontested white 'space' market opportunities Macro to Micro 221 Trends that did not make it into this book 221 Shale gas 221 Beyond BRIC - the next game changers 222 Infrastructure spending 223 New outsourcing hotspots 223 TechVision top technologies of the future 224 Mega conclusions 224 Macro to Micro methodology 226 Conclusion 232 References 234 Acknowledgements 240 Index 242 XII