Media Considerations Related to Puerto Rico s Fiscal Situation

Transcription

1 CUNY Graduat School of Journalism Jun, Mdia Considrations Rlatd to Purto Rico s Fiscal Situation Alan Schankl Managing Dirctor Municial Stratgy and Rsarch

2 Economy is Stagnant and Dbt Continus to Grow.%.%.% PE Economy Has Bn Contracting for Past NIn Yars EAI Indx (Right Axis) YoY Chang 8 6 Exct for brif riod in, conomy has bn contracting sinc 6 -.% -.% - 6.% Dbt has continud to grow Rcnt and lannd dbt is not bing - 8.% 6 l- Ju F b - S - 8 r- A 8 o v- N 9 n - Ju n - Ja u g - A a r- M ct- O a y- M c- D l- Ju F b - S - r- A invstd, but is largly financing dficits Unsustainabl As % of Snding, Dbt Srvic Has Bn Rising whil Caital Invstmnt has Drod % 6% Public Imrovmnts Dbt Srvic % 8% % % On Pr Caita Basis, Liabilitis ar Ovrwhlming UAAL r Caita Dbt r Caita Total Dbt and UAAL r Caita UAAL and Dbt as % Pr Caita Incom Stat Mdian $,69 $,6 $,8 9% Stat Avrag $, $, $,8 % Purto Rico $,8 $,6 $, 9% Nw Jrsy $, $, $9, % South Dakota $ $9 $9 % Kntucky $,96 $,96 $,9 % UAAL = Unfundd actuarial accrud liability (Pnsions). Data is from S&P ( for FY ) Sourc: Janny FISR, PR Govrnmnt Dvlomnt Bank, S&P, Cntr for a Nw Economy

3 Multil Stakholdrs and Viwoints Citizns Public mloys Buraucracy Lndrs including bondholdrs (banks, mutual funds, individual invstors [mainland and local], hdg funds and othr institutional invstors) Political ladrshi Fdral govrnmnt Undrwritrs, consultants, attornys and othr outsid xrts Bond analysts Othrs It s imortant to idntify and considr viwoints of all stakholdrs. Although as a bond analyst my focus is rimarily on bondholdr intrsts, good analysis rquirs considration of all stakholdr viwoints

4 A Fw Ky Qustions Givn stagnant conomy, how much mor ain (tax and f incrass, nsion rductions, srvic rductions) can/will citizn stakholdrs tolrat? How will otntial votr discontnt translat to olitical class? Elctions ar ahad. Will futur loans b availabl if govrnmnt dfaults? What ar rrcussions if bond markt accss is diminishd? Structural Challngs ar Long Trm. Ar w looking byond currnt (FY6) budgt issus? Will olitical ladrshi, which has significant accomlishmnts undr blt in ast ½ yars, tak y off ball with lctions ahad? Dos furthr borrowing (suortd by undrwritrs tc) ncourag oor fiscal discilin or offr ladrshi brathing room to addrss fiscal roblms?

5 Tlling th Story How wll do mdia consumrs undrstand th issus? Whn writing about basic budgt issus, is mdia distinguishing btwn o lasting structural masurs on th on hand (rvnu incrass and snding cuts) and o on tim fixs (incntiv for tax r-aymnts, intra govrnmnt transfrs, scoo and toss and caitalizd intrst. Is mdia looking ahad to out yars to idntify futur budgt issus? o Act taxs (% of rvnu) - will it continu? o Halth insuranc xns growth +$.8 bln 8 o Annual nsion costs aftr whn ay-as-you-go kicks in (soon) o Rising dbt srvic xns Dbt Srvic Obligations Limit Snding on Othr Prioritis Estimatd Dbt Srvic Paymnts in 6 Gnral Obligation Dbt $,6 mln Guarantd Dbt $69 mln Aroriation Dbt $9 mln COFINA $68 mln PR GDB $,6 mln PREPA $6 mln PRASA $ mln PRHTA $9 mln Total $,98 mln Hl From Fds on Futur Halthcar Snding Unlikly Projctd Dficits of PR Halth Insuranc Administration $ mln $ mln $6 mln $,96 mln $, mln Sourc: Janny FISR, Purto Rico Financial Statmnts

6 Hl from Washington? / Trust and Intgrity Hl from DC unlikly Congrssional gridlock and olitics Concrn about rcdnts Act bnfit could nd if US tax rform gains momntum Trust and Intgrity Trasury and GDB disclosur ractics hav imrovd somwhat in rcnt yars, but rmain oor missd slf imosd May dadlin for Jun, financials You as journalists and w as analysts want to s mor financial and rlatd information on a timly and rgular basis. Is this in th bst intrsts of all stakholdrs? 6

7 Crtification & Disclaimrs This rort is th intllctual rorty of Janny Montgomry Scott LLC (Janny) and may not b rroducd, distributd, or ublishd by any rson for any uros without Janny s xrss rior writtn consnt. This rsntation has bn rard by Janny FISR (FIS) and is to b usd for informational uross only. In no vnt should it b construd as a solicitation or offr to urchas or sll a scurity. Th information rsntd hrin is takn from sourcs blivd to b rliabl, but is not guarantd by Janny as to accuracy or comltnss. Any issu namd or rats mntiond ar usd for illustrativ uross only, and may not rrsnt th scific faturs or scuritis availabl at a givn tim. Prliminary Official Statmnts, Final Official Statmnts, or Prosctuss for any nw issus mntiond hrin ar availabl uon rqust. Th valu of and incom from invstmnts may vary bcaus of changs in intrst rats, forign xchang rats, scuritis rics, markt Indics, as wll as orational or financial conditions of issurs or othr factors. Past rformanc is not ncssarily a guid to futur rformanc. Estimats of futur rformanc ar basd on assumtions that may not b ralizd. W hav no obligation to tll you whn oinions or information containd in Janny FISR rsntations or ublications chang. Dfinition of Ratings Ovrwight: Janny FISR xcts th targt asst class or sctor to outrform th comarabl bnchmark (blow) in its asst class in trms of total rturn Marktwight: Janny FISR xcts th targt asst class or sctor to rform in lin with th comarabl bnchmark (blow) in its asst class in trms of total rturn Undrwight: Janny FISR xcts th targt asst class or sctor to undrrform th comarabl bnchmark (blow) in its asst class in trms of total rturn Bnchmarks Asst Classs: Janny FISR ratings for domstic fixd incom asst classs including Trasuris, Agncis, Mortgags, Invstmnt Grad Crdit, High Yild Crdit, and Municials mloy th Barclay s U.S. Aggrgat Bond Markt Indx as a bnchmark. Trasuris: Janny FISR ratings mloy th Barclay s U.S. Trasury Indx as a bnchmark. Agncis: Janny FISR ratings mloy th Barclay s U.S. Agncy Indx as a bnchmark. Mortgags: Janny FISR ratings mloy th Barclay s U.S. MBS Indx as a bnchmark. Invstmnt Grad Crdit: Janny FISR ratings mloy th Barclay s U.S. Crdit Indx as a bnchmark. High Yild Crdit: Janny FISR ratings for mloy Barclay s U.S. Cororat High Yild Indx as a bnchmark. Municials: Janny FISR ratings mloy th Barclay s Municial Bond Indx as a bnchmark. Analyst Crtification I, Alan Schankl, th Primarily Rsonsibl Analyst for this rort, hrby crtify that all viws xrssd in this rort accuratly rflct my rsonal viws about any and all of th subjct sctors, industris, scuritis, and issurs. No art of my comnsation was, is, or will b, dirctly or indirctly, rlatd to th scific rcommndations or viws xrssd in this rsarch rort.