Assessing the Relationship Between Online Job Postings and Total Hires and Education Levels in Arizona Aruna Murthy Dan Bache Benjamin Fa anunu
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1 Assessing the Relationship Between Online Job Postings and Total Hires and Education Levels in Arizona Aruna Murthy Dan Bache Benjamin Fa anunu
2 Help Wanted Online (HWOL) HWOL data series from the Conference Board primarily consists of online job postings by occupation These job postings are compiled from internet job boards, company websites, and newspapers using spidering technology Examples of websites: Monster CareerBuilder Employer Job Boards Government Job Boards Postings collected at regular frequency and deduplication logic applied. Continuously updated Data are parsed to produce information on hiring requirements including education, experience, skills, and certifications A useful resource to assess current online job posting trends, new and emerging occupations, and their skill requirements Geographically comprehensive (State, MSA, County) Longitudinal Employment Dynamics Provides labor market information (LMI) statistics by industry LMI data collected from establishment universe quarterly Unemployment insurance covered employment and wages by industry Worker demographics collected includes age, sex, race, ethnicity, educational attainment, and place of residence Variety of data sources used for worker demographics such as, administrative records, Social Security data, Federal tax records, and other census and survey data Six month lag in the data
3 Hiring activity in Arizona gradually picking up post-recession Hires 3,500,000 Total Hires by Quarter and Year 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment-Household Dynamics program *Total hires measures total accessions, i.e., new hires plus recalls
4 Online Ad postings picking up at a faster pace than total hires post-recession Ads 1,400,000 Online Ads by Quarter and Year 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q Source: Conference Board; Help Wanted Online Data Series
5 Over-the-year growth in online ads outpaced total hires Over-The-Year Percent Change in Total Hires Over-The-Year Percent Change in Online Ads 15.0% 30.0% 10.0% 8.8% 20.0% 20.9% 19.9% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% 2.7% 0.9% % 0.0% 11.5% 9.3% % -15.0% -7.8% -10.0% -20.0% -10.5% -20.0% -25.0% -23.3% -30.0% -30.0% -28.2% -40.0% -39.4% -35.0% -50.0%
6 Arizona Hiring activity greater in 4 th quarter and lowest in the 1 st quarter Percent Total Hires by Quarter and Year Percent Hires 100% 90% 80% 27% 28% 25% 30% 29% 29% 28% 70% 60% 25% 25% 24% 22% 23% 26% 25% 50% 40% 30% 24% 24% 25% 24% 26% 25% 24% 20% 10% 24% 23% 25% 24% 22% 20% 23% 0% Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment-Household Dynamics program
7 Fewer Ads in the 1 st quarter compared to the rest of the year Percent Ads 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Percent Online Ads by Quarter and Year 26% 26% 22% 26% 26% 24% 27% 25% 25% 26% 25% 26% 24% 26% 26% 26% 27% 25% 26% 28% 25% 22% 24% 25% 24% 22% 23% 22% Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment-Household Dynamics program
8 From 2009 to 2013Q3 Online Ads accounted for roughly half the hires Total Hires Greater Than Online Ads Total Hires Online Ads 900, , , , , to 2013Q3 average Total Hires: 427,709 Online Ads: 216, , , , , , , Q1 150, Q1 292,531 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment-Household Dynamics program Conference Board; Help Wanted Online Data Series
9 Total Hires Greater Than Online Ads Hires Total Hires Online Ads Ads 900, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 50, Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment-Household Dynamics program Conference Board; Help Wanted Online Data Series
10 Greater internet access, fluency, and familiarity, possible improvement in deduplication logic, reduced cost, etc. may be contributing to the declining ratio Hires/Ads Ratio 4.00 Number of Hires Per Online Ad Q Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment-Household Dynamics program Conference Board; Help Wanted Online Data Series
11 Largest gap between hires and online ads in the 4 th quarter most likely due to a higher concentration of seasonal hires not necessarily requiring an online ad 900, , , , , , , , ,000 0 Quarter 1 Snapshot Hires Ads 800, , , , , , , ,000 0 Quarter 2 Snapshot Hires Ads Quarter 3 Snapshot Quarter 4 Snapshot 900, , , , , , , , ,000 0 Hires Ads 900, , , , , , , , ,000 0 Hires Ads
12 Scatter plot of total hires Vs online Ads
13 Do Online Job Ads Predict Hiring? Cochrane-Orcutt, using observations 2005:4-2013:3 (T = 32) Dependent variable: Total_Hires rho = Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value const Online_Ads *** Statistics based on the rho-differenced data: Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Sum squared resid 1.76e+11 S.E. of regression R-squared Adjusted R-squared F(1, 30) P-value(F) rho Durbin-Watson Total Hires = 96, Online Ads + e
14 Education Categories Local Employment Household Dynamics Five educational sub-categories: Less than high school High school or equivalent, no college Some college or Associate degree Bachelor's degree or advanced degree Educational attainment not available (workers aged 24 or younger) Help Wanted Online Eight educational sub-categories: Less than high school High school diploma or equivalent Some college, no degree Postsecondary non-degree award Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Master's degree Doctoral or professional degree
15 251, , , , , ,265 76, , ,323 80, ,442 61,723 93,707 81,678 61,159
16 33.7% 13.5% 20.7% 18.0% 14.0% 31.6% 13.8% 21.4% 18.6% 14.5% 30.2% 14.5% 21.9% 19.1% 14.2%
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21 Over the Year Change by Education Category All Hires (LEHD) Total Ads (HWOL) Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment-Household Dynamics program & Conference Board, Help Wanted Online Data Series
22
23 20.4% 31.3% 27.1% 21.2% 20.7% 31.5% 27.4% 20.4%
24 32.3% 20.6% 38.4% 8.7% 35.5% 18.8% 35.4% 10.4%
25
26 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment-Household Dynamics program & Conference Board, Help Wanted Online Data Series
27 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment-Household Dynamics program & Conference Board, Help Wanted Online Data Series
28 All Hires Aged 25 and Older Cochrane-Orcutt, using observations 2005:4-2013:3 (T = 32) Dependent variable: All Hires rho = Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value Constant Total Ads * Statistics based on the rho-differenced data: Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Sum squared resid 1.12e+11 S.E. of regression R-squared Adjusted R-squared F(1, 30) P-value(F) rho Durbin-Watson
29 Less than high school All Hires Aged 25 and Older High school or equivalent, no college Yule-Walker Estimates SSE E10 DFE 30 MSE Root MSE SBC AIC MAE AICC MAPE HQC Durbin-Watson Regress R-Square Total R-Square Parameter Estimates Standard Approx Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > t Intercept E1_ads Some college or Associate degree Yule-Walker Estimates SSE DFE 30 MSE Root MSE SBC AIC MAE AICC MAPE HQC Durbin-Watson Regress R-Square Total R-Square Parameter Estimates Standard Approx Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > t Intercept E3_ads Yule-Walker Estimates SSE DFE 30 MSE Root MSE SBC AIC MAE AICC MAPE HQC Durbin-Watson Regress R-Square Total R-Square Parameter Estimates Standard Approx Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > t Intercept E2_ads Bachelor's degree or advanced degree Yule-Walker Estimates SSE DFE 30 MSE Root MSE SBC AIC MAE AICC MAPE HQC Durbin-Watson Regress R-Square Total R-Square Parameter Estimates Standard Approx Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > t Intercept E4_ads
30 Office of Employment and Population Statistics Arizona Department of Administration Dr. Aruna Murthy, Chief Economist Phone: Daniel Bache, Economist Phone: Benjamin Fa anunu, Economist Phone: Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment-Household Dynamics program & Conference Board, Help Wanted Online Data Series 30
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