An Economist s View of Global Trade Flows
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1 Dr. Rebecca Harding CEO Dr. Rebecca Harding CEO analytics.com An Economist s View of Global Trade Flows TXF, Trade and Treasury, Frankfurt, November 2015
2 Trade has under- performed since 2011 And the relationship with GDP has broken down 4 Trade and GDP growth (forecast) World trade growth GDP growth (volumes) Source:, World Bank
3 Trade finance not fuelling trade as it was And growing too slowly Trade finance versus world trade growth, (forecast) Total Trade Finance Total Trade Source:
4 Impacting commodity trade finance deals
5 And oil and gas deals in particular
6 But there are still opportunities Because values are still growing 7, , , , , , , Total trade finance vs trade receivables, Total short, medium and long term Trade Finance World trade finance revenue pool Source:
7 Risks to trade finance Oil prices remain low World trade finance flows vs WTI oil last price monthly Monthly valueof total world tradefinance, $USbn World trade finance WTI oil
8 Risks to trade finance Fed raises interest rates Correlation of exports with currency value Thailand South Korea South Africa 0.13 Indonesia 0.34 Nigeria Mexico Tutkey India Russia 0.27 China Brazil Source:
9 Risks to trade finance 2016 is the year of geopolitics Source: Palladium Risk
10 Risks to trade finance Geopolitics: South China Seas Trade and trade finance between China and Japan, ) Value of total trade or trade finance (USDbn) China- Japan total Trade (USDbn) China- Japan total trade finance
11 Case study of Nigeria Risk perception and management 350 Geopolitical risk and trade finance in Nigeria GPR vs Trade Finance index Trade Finance GPR
12 Concluding remarks Risk can be managed Commodity prices look to remain low Trade finance and trade will not take off in 2016 but they will grow China is restructuring and reforming (retail sales and luxury imports remain strong) There is a perception that the world is riskier but: The reality on the ground is often business as usual There is a strong correlation between high risk and high trade finance growth in riskier countries Good data helps to mitigate some of the risks
13 About was founded by Dr. Rebecca Harding, a serial technology entrepreneur with 20 years of experience in technology, economics and big data management Equant provides the world s macroeconomic data, which is interpreted to market intelligence and integrated into investment decisions through a proprietary trading interface Whilst big data makes information readily available, there is a market gap for businesses which can offer information, intelligence and a tailored interface to their clients in one affordable packaged solution
14 Value Proposition Information Big macroeconomic data, financial market news and prices Cleaned, harmonised, and in local currency or USD on same platform Intelligence Real time nowcasts, indices and trading suggestions, economic interpretation Financial market and Economic data interpretation Economic fundamentals, financial data and indices; all in one place and at affordable prices Interface Links to trading platforms and tailored user- friendly graphic user interfaces Real time trading solutions linked to information and intelligence in real time
15 Process Macro- economic data Trade data Financial & market Intelligence Economic Intelligence & Insight Tailored Interface Financial Data Information: Big data amalgamation and cleaning Intelligence: Data Driven Interface: Tailored to investors, traders and analysts
16 approach to trade finance The lack of data in trade finance is a challenge to the sector has an unrivalled platform of the world s trade flow data covering 249 trading jurisdictions and 12,800 sectors Our trade finance flows are based on practitioner, market and documentary estimates They cover trade finance products and processes to provide one integrated dataset which can estimate trade finance market size by country, product and sector
17 How we apply this to risk Our work with Palladium Risk We work with our sister company Palladium Risk We estimate and forecast risk using a unique index created for each country globally This index is based on the products that countries import and that are proxies for geopolitical instability We correlate this index with trade finance and trade to derive scenario forecasts by country and sector
18 Contact Us Dr. Rebecca Harding analytics.com +44- (0) Palladium Risk Jack Harding +44- (0)
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