Evaluatie van infrastructuurwerken

Transcription

1 Evaluatie van infrastructuurwerken Cathy Macharis 3/09/203

2 Introductie «If the only tool that you have is a hammer, you tend to threat everything as if it were a nail» citaat van Meadows 2

3 Verschillende evaluatiemethodes. Kosten Effectiviteitsanalyse (KEA) 2. Kosten Baten Analyse (KBA) 3. Sociale Kosten-Baten-Analyse (SKBA) 4. Multi-Criteria analyse (MCA) 5. Multi-Actor, Multi-Criteria analyse (MAMCA) 3

4 . Kosten Effectiviteitsanalyse (KEA) Neo-Klassieke methode actor: vb. Overheid Nut-maximalisatie t.a.v. geleverde investeringen (effectiviteit) C Eratio numberof prevented accidents of given severity ina given year Cost of implementing one unit of the measure in a given year 4

5 2. Kosten Baten Analyse 0... Jaar 0 Baten Uitvoeringskosten Cumulatieve NCW... Jaar Baten Uitvoeringskosten Terugverdientijd Netto Contante waarde (NCW) NCW t 0 Bt Kt t ( r) waar B t = baten in jaar t K t = uitvoeringskosten in jaar t r = discontovoet 5

6 3. Sociale Kosten Baten Analyse (SKBA) 6

7 4. Multi-Criteria Analyse (MCA) Evaluatiematrix Alternatieven afwegen over de verschillende criteria Bijkomende informatie nodig: --» preferenties besluitvormers Verschillende aggregatie-technieken 7

8 4. Multi-Criteria Analyse (MCA) Aggregatietechnieken Promethee GAIA (Brans, 982 ; Brans & Macharis, 998) Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) (Saaty, 982) REGIME (Nijkamp et al., 990) ELECTRE (Roy, 99) 8

9 5. Multi-Actor, Multi-Criteria Analysis (MAMCA) analysis 2 m 4 Indicators Measurement methods Alternatives 3 n n C W n n 5 Overall analyses (MCA) Ref. Altern W 6 Results Implementation Mitigation strategies +/0/- Deployment 7 9

10 MAMCA: case Oosterweelverbinding (Antwerpen) 0

11 MAMCA: Stap analysis 2 m 4 Indicators Measurement methods Alternatives 3 n n C W n n 5 Overall analyses (MCA) Ref. Altern W 6 Results Implementation Mitigation strategies +/0/- Deployment 7

12 Stap : Probleemdefinitie & Alternatieven BAM-tracé 2. ArupSUM-tracé 3. Optimalisatie Liefkenshoektunnel 4. Tolheffing in Kennedytunnel 5. Bezorgdheid tonen (maar niks doen) 2

13 MAMCA: Stap 2 analysis 2 m 4 Indicators Measurement methods Alternatives 3 n n C W n n 5 Overall analyses (MCA) Ref. Altern W 6 Results Implementation Mitigation strategies +/0/- Deployment 7 3

14 Stap 2: analyse Vlaamse Regering Haven van Antwerpen Stad Antwerpen 4

15 MAMCA: Stap 3 analysis 2 m 4 Indicators Measurement methods Alternatives 3 n n C W n n 5 Overall analyses (MCA) Ref. Altern W 6 Results Implementation Mitigation strategies +/0/- Deployment 7 5

16 Stap 3: Definitie van criteria en gewichten Identificatie / stakeholder Toekenning gewichten 6

17 MAMCA: Stap 4 analysis 2 m 4 Indicators Measurement methods Alternatives 3 n n C W n n 5 Overall analyses (MCA) Ref. Altern W 6 Results Implementation Mitigation strategies +/0/- Deployment 7 7

18 Stap 4: Criteria Indicatoren Meetmethodologie Table. Indicator(s) per criterion Criterion Measurement Indicators Flemish Government methods Financial feasibility Environmental impact 2 3 Efficiency traffic flows Traffic safety C Duration City of Antwerp Air quality Mobility Cj Noise effects Barrier formation and visual hindrance Nature Port community Economic development Direct access Competitive position Expert consultation Money, IRR Particulates (PM2,5), NO x, decibel 4 Indicator(s) Pairwise comparisons Passenger car equivalent, time gains, vehicle kilometers, traffic intensity C A A2 A3 Az Accidents with personal injuries A per year, money, traffic intensity Time E A2 [] A3 [] [] Particulates (PM2,5), NO x Az [] Passenger car equivalent, time gains, vehicle kilometers, traffic intensity Cj A A2 A3 Az Decibel Ek A Height, integration in the city A2 image [] Hectare A3 [] [] Capacity, traffic intensity Az [] Number of vehicles per time unit, passenger car equivalent, traffic intensity Time gains, vehicle kilometers, money 5 8

19 MAMCA: Stap 5 analysis 2 m 4 Indicators Measurement methods Alternatives 3 n n C W n n 5 Overall analyses (MCA) Ref. Altern W 6 Results Implementation Mitigation strategies +/0/- Deployment 7 9

20 Stap 6: Resultaten Vlaamse Regering 20

21 Stap 6: Resultaten Overzicht 2

22 MAMCA: Stap 7 analysis 2 m 4 Indicators Measurement methods Alternatives 3 n n C W n n 5 Overall analyses (MCA) Ref. Altern W 6 Results Implementation Mitigation strategies +/0/- Deployment 7 22

23 Conclusies Elke evaluatiemethode : verschillende kenmerken, voor- en nadelen --» Keuze: afhankelijk van project en doelstellingen Key-Elementen: Doelstellingen evaluatie Timing (ex-ante of ex-post) Monetarisatie van effecten noodzakelijk Noodzaak aan implementatie stakeholders 23

24 Referenties DE BRUCKER, K., C. MACHARIS and A. VERBEKE, 203, Multi-criteria analysis and the resolution of sustainable development dilemmas: A stakeholder management approach, European Journal of Operational Research 224, pp MACHARIS, C., LEBEAU, K., TURCKSIN, L., 202, Multi Actor Multi Criteria Analysis (MAMCA) as a tool to support sustainable decisions: state of use. Decision Support Systems Vol. 54, MACHARIS, C., VAN HOECK, E., VERLINDE, S., DEBAUCHE, W. and F. WITLOX, 20, Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis: A case study on night time delivery for urban distribution, in: MACHARIS, C. and S. MELO (Eds.), City Distribution and Urban Freight Transport: Multiple Perspectives, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, pp VAN MALDEREN, F., MACHARIS C., 200, Méthodes d évaluation socioéconomique : regarder la forêt plutôt que les arbres à partir d un arbre de décision. In: Pour une économie de la sécurité routière. In: CARNIS L, MIGNOT D (eds), editors. Economica, Paris. TURCKSIN, L., MACHARIS C., LEBEAU K., BOUREIMA F., VAN MIERLO J., BRAM S., DE RUYCK J., MERTENS L., JOSSART J.-M., GORISSEN L., PELKMANS L., 200, A multi-actor multi-criteria analysis to assess the stakeholder support for different biofuel options: the case of Belgium, Journal of Transport Energy, vol. 39, pp MACHARIS, C., DE WITTE, A. and L. TURCKSIN, 200, The multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA): Application in the Flemish long term decision making process on mobility and logistics, Transport Policy, 7, pp DE BRUCKER, K., MACHARIS, C. VERBEKE, A. 200, Multi-criteria analysis in transport project evaluation : an institutional approach, European Transport, issue n 47, pp MACHARIS, C.; DE WITTE, A., AND J. AMPE, 2009, The multi-actor, multi-criteria analysis methodology (MAMCA) for the evaluation of transport projects: theory and practice, Journal of Advanced Transportation, vol.43, nr. 2, pp MACHARIS, C. 2007, Multi-criteria Analysis as a Tool to Include s in Project Evaluation: The MAMCA Method, in HAEZENDONCK, E. (Ed.), Transport Project Evaluation. Extending the Social Cost Benefit Approach, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, pp

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