Tuning in to Mobile TV

Transcription

1 WHITEPAPER Tuning in to Mobile TV This whitepaper is an extract from: Mobile TV Applications, Services & Opportunities information you can do business with

2 Tuning in to Mobile TV 1. Introduction Over the past two years, the mobile TV landscape has changed dramatically. Even by mid-2008, there were serious reservations as to whether dedicated mobile broadcast TV networks could ever generate sufficient revenues to be run at a profit, even in the longer term; and the efforts of the then EU Commissioner Viviane Reding to persuade mobile network operators to deploy networks based on the DVB-H standard largely fell on deaf ears. In the aftermath of the global economic downturn, these reservations crystallised in most cases into an outright rejection of the dedicated broadcast network. By the end of more than four and a half years after the first service was launched just 3.2 million users worldwide were paying for mobile TV services delivered via dedicated mobile broadcast TV networks: well under 0.1% of the global subscriber base. Even in the two markets where mobile broadcast TV pay services are relatively well established (South Korea and Italy, launching in May 2005 and June 2006 respectively) penetration is just 2.0% and 1.4% respectively. Even though MediaFLO achieved carriage deals with Verizon and AT&T, the two largest networks in the US, its subscriber base stood at no more than 200,000 at the end of Furthermore, this global pay TV base is barely sufficient to sustain a single medium-sized national network. Given these factors, given the comparative failures of those pay ventures, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that pay TV services delivered over dedicated networks are unlikely to generate substantial revenues in the future; that few such networks will be commissioned and deployed in the future; that those networks which are in active service will increasingly struggle in the face of competing technologies. Where mobile broadcast TV has taken off, it is largely the result either of digital terrestrial networks configured at no extra cost to enable free-to-air mobile reception of signals (e.g. ISDB-T in Japan) or with handsets fitted with chipsets which can receive free-to-air analogue TV signals (e.g. in parts of Asia and Africa). However, while they will not in themselves provide any additional service revenues, this is not to say that they do not provide the opportunity for vendors, operators and service providers to generate additional revenues, ranging from the perceived enhanced value of a handset that is in some way mobile TV-enabled, to associated, paid-for value-added interactive services. Page 1 Juniper Research Limited Tel: +44 (0)

3 At the same time that the star of broadcast mobile TV has waned, that of streamed services has waxed to an appreciable extent. In areas of good reception, 3G/3.5G networks can enable high-quality coverage of streamed TV, in many cases of 24fps and above; at the same time, many streamed TV applications now offer as an alternative (or default) the option of WiFi coverage which when available offers even greater audio and video reception. Given that 3G network coverage has improved significantly in the past two years, and given that free WiFi is becoming far more widely available, it therefore appears increasingly probable that the bulk of end-user revenues from TV services will come from streamed, rather than broadcast, mechanisms. 2. The Changing Mobile TV Landscape Table 1: Key Factors Impacting Upon Mobile TV Development Factor Handsets Offering Analogue and Digital Terrestrial TV Are Now Available WiFi Has Entered the Equation Consumer Viewing Habits Are Changing Impact With a number of chipset vendors now offering receivers which can pick up analogue and digital terrestrial TV at a relatively low level of power consumption, previous assumptions about the viability of dedicated mobile broadcast TV networks must now be called into question. And as power consumption of such chipsets continues to decline in the medium term, then the pay TV mobile networks will only survive by offering content which is (a) not available on the FTA terrestrial networks and (b) created specifically for the mobile. Whether the networks and their service providers will be able to do that is another matter. Increasingly, developers are offering applications which augment delivery via cellular networks with WiFi access. At the same time, many hotels, public houses, fast food outlets, libraries and cafes are now providing their customers with free WiFi access: such brands include McDonald s, Coffee Republic, Leon Restaurants, Radisson Hotels. Indeed, many cities now include several hundred such establishments and the lists are growing daily. Furthermore, as more outlets offer free WiFi, the model creates its own impetus and thus more and more consumer-facing businesses will feel obliged to roll out free WiFi in order to compete. There has been a marked shift in consumer viewing habits in developed markets recent years, facilitated by DVRs (Digital Video Recorders) and online applications such as the BBC s iplayer, which enables UK-based Internet users to view any TV or Radio programme broadcast on the BBC s channels over the previous seven days. The implications of this are that a network which relies primary on linear broadcasting for its revenues will not be as attractive now as it was several years ago: there are fewer and fewer programmes which consumers feel obliged to watch at the time of broadcast: even live news broadcasts have become less imperative in an age whereby up-to-date news stories can be accessed instantaneously via Internet sites. Source: Juniper Research Page 2 Juniper Research Limited Tel: +44 (0)

4 The table above provides three illustrations of how - and why various technological, social and economic factors have impacted upon the mobile TV market, and indeed on the relationships between the prospective participants in any mobile TV value chain. Some of these have affected the market adversely: others present new opportunities. 3. The Market for Mobile TV As the first mobile TV networks were being deployed in , it was possible to claim that the opportunity for mobile TV lay in identifying the transition from streamed mobile TV services to broadcast mobile TV. This is no longer necessarily the case, as (for example) Swisscom s decision to switch from DVB-H back to 3.5G for its mobile TV services demonstrates. Given that this transition is no longer likely to occur (as where it does, such occurrences will be far from the norm), the opportunity lies elsewhere: identifying the revenue potential across the value chain, from chipset to service provision. Adding together the total end-user revenues from streamed and broadcast TV services gives a total of nearly $7 billion by 2015, up from $3.2 billion in Streamed TV services are expected to account for the overwhelming majority of such revenues throughout the forecast period. Figure 1: Total End-User Revenues ($m) for Mobile Streamed and Broadcast TV Services $7,000 Streamed Broadcast $ Source: Juniper Research Order the Full Report This whitepaper is taken from Juniper Research s report entitled Mobile TV: Applications, Services & Opportunities, This in-depth report provides the most detailed analysis of the opportunity for mobile TV services to date. Within two large forecasting suites, the report assesses the likely value and usage levels of both streamed and broadcast services, Page 3 Juniper Research Limited Tel: +44 (0)

5 split by eight key regions for streamed and by an additional 43 countries for broadcast services. An extensive examination of the various technological, social and economic factors that have impacted upon the mobile TV market over the past 18 months is provided as well as how disruptions in the mobile content value chain notably the growing prevalence of the app store model have impacted upon mobile TV. This report analyses and forecasts the potential impact of streamed TV services on the cellular networks, while assessing the extent to which WiFi networks will act as an additional outlet for mobile TV traffic. This fully updated fifth edition also includes a separate set of forecasts which discuss the likely additional revenue opportunity for dedicated broadcast networks from in-vehicle entertainment systems. Key questions the report answers: What are the key factors that have disrupted the mobile TV value chain? What key social, economic and technological trends have shaped the development of the mobile TV market in the past 12 months? What are the prospects for dedicated mobile broadcast TV networks and technologies? How much data traffic will streamed TV services generate over the next six years? What strategies should network operators, vendors and service providers employ to maximize their revenue opportunities from mobile TV? What adoption rate will mobile TV achieve by 2015? What is the revenue potential of mobile TV delivered to in-car entertainment systems? For more details on this report visit the website or phone +44 (0) Juniper Research Limited Juniper Research specialises in providing high quality analytical research reports and consultancy services to the telecoms industry. We have particular expertise in the mobile, wireless, broadband and IP-convergence sectors. Juniper is independent, unbiased, and able to draw from experienced senior managers with proven track records. Publication Details Publication date: July 2010 Author: Windsor Holden For more information, please contact: Page 4 Juniper Research Limited Tel: +44 (0)

6 Michele Ince, General Manager Juniper Research Limited, Church Cottage House, Church Square, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 7QW UK Tel: +44 (0) / Fax: +44(0) Further whitepapers can be downloaded at Page 5 Juniper Research Limited Tel: +44 (0)