invest 12 Geneva, October 2012

Transcription

1 invest 12 Geneva, October 2012

2 M&G en Angleterre Société de gestion fondée en 1901 Filiale du groupe Prudential depuis 1999 Plus de 406 professionnels de la gestion d actif basés à Londres Plus de 252 milliards sous gestion* Monétaire Immobilier Actions Obligations Note: * fin juin 2012

3 D importants encours sur les principales classes d actifs Répartition des encours Par classe d actifs Par type de clientèle Property, 19bn Cash, 14bn Other, 0.78bn Equities, 66bn Retail, 66bn Internal (Prudential), 128bn Fixed interest, 153bn Total des encours sous gestion : 252 milliards d euros Institutional, 60bn 3 Source : M&G au 30 juin 2012

4 M&G Global Macro Bond Fund Principales caractéristiques du fonds Gérant : Gérant adjoint : Jim Leaviss Mike Riddell Date de lancement : Octobre 1999 Forme juridique : Encours : Catégorie Morningstar : UCITS III 261 millions d'euros Obligations International 4 Source : M&G, au 31 août Les notations sont en date du 31 août 2012 et ne doivent pas être considérées comme des recommandations.

5 Performances annualisées par an (%) M&G Global Macro Bond Fund Performances ajustées du risque par rapport à la catégorie sur 1, 3 et 5 ans M&G Global Macro Bond Fund 1 an 1 an 3 ans 3 ans 5 ans 5 ans Moyenne de la catégorie Morningstar Obligations International Volatilité annualisée des performances par an (%) De solides performances absolues, relatives et ajustées du risque 5 Source : Morningstar, Inc., base de données paneuropéenne, au 31 août Performances de la part de catégorie A en euro, coupons bruts réinvestis et de valeur liquidative à valeur liquidative.

6 Biographie Markus Peters Markus Peters a rejoint M&G en 2010 comme «associate investment specialist» en charge de la gamme de fonds obligataires de M&G. Il est titulaire d'une maîtrise (MA) en sciences de la communication, en psychologie et en sociologie de l'université d'aachen et d'une maîtrise (MSc) dans le domaine des affaires européennes (Politics and Government in the European Union) de la London School of Economics. Markus Peters parle couramment l'allemand, le néerlandais et l'anglais. 6

7 A truly global approach to bond investing Markus Peters, Investment Specialist October 2012

8 M&G Retail Fixed Interest team 7 fund managers and 6 other investment professionals Jim Leaviss (20 years experience) Head of Retail Fixed Interest Richard Woolnough (26) Fund Manager Stefan Isaacs (11) Fund Manager Ben Lord (10) James Tomlins (10) Mike Riddell (10) Fund Manager Fund Manager Fund Manager Matt Russell (8) Deputy Fund Manager Anthony Doyle (10) Gordon Harding (9) Investment Director Investment Specialist Markus Peters (2) Investment Specialist Nicolo Carpaneda (8) Associate Investment Specialist Ana Gil (4) Associate Investment Specialist James Thompson (2) FMA 8

9 Market leading credit analyst teams Analysing global companies and sovereigns Financials and sovereigns Industrials Asset Backed Securities fixed interest investment professionals including 86 credit analysts Quantitative analysis 1 Real estate finance 13 Leveraged finance 16 Private placement 5 Project & infrastructure finance 5 Alternative credit 4 Infracapital 16 9 Source: M&G, as at 31 July 2012

10 10 Beware of the misleading emerging market narrative

11 Bps EM external sovereign debt credit spreads are reaching pre-crisis levels Z-Spread in bps Brazil 8 ⅞ 04/15/24 Colombia 8 ⅛ 05/21/24 Philippines 10 ⅝ 03/16/25 Mexico 8 09/24/22 Peru /21/25 Barely compensating for liquidity risk, let alone credit risk 11 Source: Bloomberg, M&G, as at 30 September 2012.

12 This sounds nice, doesn t it? Public debt/ GDP ratio of less than 40% Average GDP growth of 6.7% in the last decade Great demographics Strong legal system and institutions 12 Source: M&G, as at August 2012.

13 Ireland in 2006 And it looked like it would last forever Public debt/ GDP ratio of less than 40% Average GDP growth of 6.7% in the last decade Great demographics Strong legal system and institutions 13 Source: as at August 2012.

14 China today Investment boom financed by massive credit bubble 14 Source: as at January 2012.

15 Credit to GDP (%) 2010 China s extraordinarily growth is now held up by credit Chinese GDP growth rate should be nearer to 5% than 10% Credit to GDP in % (2010) relative to per capita income in USD China* Portugal Korea* Spain HK UK Ireland Japan US Per capita income (USD) The Chinese government has a lot of policy firepower but the days of 10%+ growth are behind us 15 Source : World Bank, IMF, HSBC, January *China and Korea data have been adjusted by HSBC.

16 EM local currency sovereign debt index level DAX index level EM local currency sovereign debt Correlation with equities Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified Composite Index (lhs) German equities (DAX) (rhs) 16 Source: Bloomberg, M&G, as at as 30 at December 30 September

17 Total return, indexed to 100 EM external sovereign debt Very close correlation with US BBB non-financial corporates Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Composite EM external debt index BBB US corporates, non-financials 17 Source: Bloomberg, M&G, as at as 30 at December 30 September The composite EM external debt index consists of the ML BoA USD BBB Rated Emerging Markets Sovereigns Index and ML BOA USD BB Rated Emerging Markets Sovereigns Index in equal weights. Rebased to 100 at 6 June 2008

18 18 Central Bank Regime Change

19 Frequency distribution Central Bank Regime Change: the 4 regimes The credit crisis and sovereign debt crisis Post WWII debt reduction and financial repression The Volker years and inflation fighting Central Banks The Gold Standard. Monetary stability and fixed exchange rates Real interest rate (deposit rate less RPI) 19 Source: International Monetary Fund ( ), M&G ( ). Real interest rates refer to the UK.

20 What are the side effects of the central bank medicine?

21 "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" Milton Friedman 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% UK Australia Canada US Japan Germany Average excess money supply growth ( ) Average inflation ( ) The role of policymakers in causing or controlling inflation can't be underestimated 21 Source: Bloomberg, Nomura Research as at April 2011

22 Inflation protection is cheap 5 year breakeven rates 3 RPI* 2.5 UK (RPI) % 2 CPI target US 1.5 Germany UK (CPI) Source: Bloomberg, M&G, as at as 30 at December 30 September , *based on the assumption of a differential of 1% between UK RPI and UK CPI

23 23 M&G Global Macro Bond Fund

24 Performance levers to pull Invests globally in government bonds, corporate bonds, high yield, emerging market debt, inflation-linked bonds Positive or negative duration Positive and negative positions in sovereign and corporate debt Can invest in both developed market and EM currencies Ability to perform in both rising and falling markets 24 Source: M&G.

25 Fund manager objectives Aims to outperform the average fund in its peer group as well as the fund s composite benchmark over the medium term Aims to deliver steady returns with lower volatility than the average fund in its peer group throughout the economic cycle Aims to construct a diversified portfolio by investing in a range of liquid fixed income assets across geographies M&G Global Macro Bond Fund Aims to take high conviction views. Not benchmarkconstrained Total return focus 25 Source: M&G, as at 13 January 2012.

26 Duration (interest rate risk) A fully flexible global bond fund Historical credit risk and duration positioning 10 years 8 years 6 years 2 1 Jul 2011 Feb years 2 years Sep years -2 years -4 years AAA AA A BBB BB B Credit risk CCC 26 Source: M&G, as at 30 September 2012.

27 Fund positioning summary M&G Global Macro Bond Fund Key portfolio themes Currency breakdown Duration Low interest rate duration of around 2.5 years Inflation Central banks no longer care about inflation, so we have 19% in linkers 40 Government bonds We prefer credit over government bonds. Reduced exposure further in September. % 30 Investment grade We prefer corporate issuers although covered bonds + RMBS are good value 20 High yield Still overcompensates for default, but valuations have come closer to fair value 10 Emerging markets Currencies We like Mexico but have short positions in Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Turkey Added European currencies on weakness over the summer 0-10 USD EUR JPY MXN CHF NOK SEK DKK AUD GBP 27 Source: M&G, as at 2 October 2012.

28 M&G Global Macro Bond Fund check-list Managed by an experienced fund manager who has worked for more than two decades in the bond markets Provides access to all fixed interest asset classes and global currencies Aims to deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns throughout the economic cycle Has additional performance levers to pull, such as negative duration as well as negative positions in credit and currencies 28 Source: M&G, as at 13 January 2012.

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30 Prices may fluctuate and you may not get back your original investment. This document is designed for investment professionals use only, not for onward distribution to any other person or entity. For Switzerland: Distribution of this document in or from Switzerland is not permissible with the exception of the distribution to qualified investors according to the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act, the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Ordinance and the respective Circular issued by the Swiss supervisory authority ("Qualified Investors"). Supplied for the use by the initial recipient (provided it is a Qualified Investor) only. In Spain the M&G Investment Funds are registered for public distribution under Art. 15 of Act 35/2003 on Collective Investment Schemes as follows: M&G Investment Funds (1) reg. no 390, M&G Investment Funds (2) reg. no 601, M&G Investment Funds (3) reg. no 391, M&G Investment Funds (5) reg. no 972, M&G Investment Funds (7) reg. no 541, M&G Investment Funds (9) reg. no 930, M&G Global Dividend Fund reg. no 713 M&G Dynamic Allocation Fund reg. no 843, M&G Global Macro Bond Fund reg. no 1056 and M&G Optimal Income Fund reg. no 522. The collective investment schemes referred to in this document (the "Schemes") are open-ended investment companies with variable capital, incorporated in England and Wales. In the Netherlands, all funds referred to, with the exception of M&G Investment Funds (2), M&G Investment Funds (5), M&G Investment Funds (9) and the M&G Dynamic Allocation Fund, are registered with the Dutch regulator, the AFM. This information is not an offer or solicitation of an offer for the purchase of investment shares in one of the Funds referred to herein. Purchases of a Fund should be based on the current prospectus. The prospectus, Key Investor Information Document (KIID), annual report and subsequent semi-annual report, are available free of charge, in paper form, from the ACD: M&G Securities Limited, Laurence Pountney Hill, London, EC4R 0HH, GB, or one of the following: M&G International Investments Limited, German branch, Bleidenstraße 6-10, D Frankfurt am Main, the German paying agent J.P. Morgan AG, Junghofstraße 14, D Frankfurt am Main, the Austrian paying agent, Raiffeisen Bank International A.G., Am Stadtpark 9, A-1030 Wien, the Luxembourg paying agent, J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., European Bank & Business Center, 6 c route de Treves, 2633 Senningerberg, Luxembourg, the Danish paying agent, Nordea Bank Danmark A/S Issuer Services, Securities Services, Hermes Hus, Helgeshøj Allé 33, Postbox 850, DK-0900, Copenhagen C, Denmark, Allfunds Bank, Calle Estafeta, No 6 Complejo Plaza de la Fuente, La Moraleja 28109, Alcobendas, Madrid, M&G International Investments Limited, 34 Avenue Matignon, 75008, Paris, France or from the French centralising agent of the Fund: RBC Dexia Investors Services Bank France. For Switzerland: Please refer to M&G International Investments Ltd., Bleidenstraße 6-10, D Frankfurt am Main or, for Sweden, from the paying agent, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ), Sergels Torg 2, Stockholm, Sweden. For Italy, they can also be obtained from one of the appointed paying agents, details of which can be found by visiting the contact section on the following website: Before subscribing you should read the prospectus, which includes investment risks relating to these funds. This financial promotion is issued by M&G Securities Limited and M&G International Investments Ltd. Both are authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and have their registered offices at Laurence Pountney Hill, London EC4R 0HH. M&G International Investments Ltd. is also registered with the CNMV in Spain. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Performance stats are quoted gross of Italian tax on capital gains