Managing mature markets

Transcription

1 Managing mature markets Morten Karlsen Sørby Nordic 1 1 Agenda Nordic overview Manage long term cash effects of fixed migration in Norway Sustain margin and market share in Norwegian mobile Develop Danish and Swedish operations 2

2 Nordic retail telecom market Norway 28 BNOK Denmark 31 BNOK Sweden 46 BNOK Finland 28 BNOK 41% mobile 17% fixed data 42% fixed voice 42% mobile 15% fixed data 43% fixed voice 32% mobile 21% fixed data 47% fixed voice 46% mobile 18% fixed data 36% fixed voice TDC 3 % Others 18 % TeliaSonera 12 % Others TeliaSonera Others Others 14 % 15 % 35 % TeliaSonera TeliaSonera 27 % 60 % 40 % Telenor 13 % Telenor 67 % TDC 58 % TDC 3 % Telenor 2 % Elisa 31 % TDC 2 % *Source: National Post and Telecom Authorities Telecom revenues at retail level (2004E); wholesale telecom, managed services and equipment related revenues not included. Business segment 60 BNOK, residential 70 BNOK 3 Strong growth in broadband and voice migration to mobile and VoIP Nordic broadband subscribers* Million 8,2 7,6 6,8 5,9 4,9 8,6 VoIP Share of Nordic voice traffic per platform* Mobile 100% = approx 90 bn minutes 1,6 2,6 3,7 Fixed Voice * Telenor estimates (scenario) 4

3 Broadband and VoIP growth redistribute telecom revenues Nordic telecom revenues* Percent 100% = 130 BNOK Broadband/datacom (including VoIP) Mobile Annual growth : 10% Stable revenue development Fixed Voice *Telenor estimates, excludes content related revenues 5 Main priority - maintain strong cash flows Manage long term cash effects of fixed migration in Norway Sustain margin and market share in Norwegian mobile Develop Danish and Swedish operations 6

4 Agenda Nordic overview Manage long term cash effects of fixed migration in Norway Sustain margin and market share in Norwegian mobile Develop Danish and Swedish operations 7 Stable revenues despite changing environment Mobile balanced out Fixed Wholesale balanced out retail Fixed Mobile Total Retail Wholesale Total Telenor external revenues (excluding sales of equipment) 8

5 Sustained high market shares 90 % 80 % 70 % 60 % 50 % 40 % Retail market shares ISDN/PSTN subscr. ISDN/PSTN voice traffic DSL* ISDN/PSTN dial-up Internet Introduction of wholesale line rental reduced share of subscriptions Stable share of voice traffic Higher DSL market share than Internet dial-up Marginal reduction of dial-up Internet share 30 % Q104 Q204 Q304 Q404 Q105 *Including Tiscali 9 ISDN/PSTN traffic decreased 21% from Q Only 2% less active lines despite 21% traffic decline Accelerated consumer migration from ISDN to DSL Quite stable number of PSTN consumers Stabilized business segment Q103 Q104 Q105 Copper pairs in use (000) Total ISDN/PSTN minutes (mill) 10

6 High share of broadband growth - key for success 404 Accesses in broadband market Q403 Q104 Q204 Q304 Q404 Q105 *Tiscali included and Canal Digital excluded from Telenor s retail share Other Cable LLUB DSL WS Telenor Retail* 35% residential broadband penetration Telenor will reach 90% of households by Q405 81% of Norwegian broadband over Telenor copper 61% retail DSL market share Telenor estimates 11 Revenues per line in use decline Average revenue per active line Revenues per line decreased 7% last 12 months No significant VoIP effects yet Q1-03 Q1-04 Q1-05 Avg rev per line (NOK/month) Active lines (1000) Retail and wholesale revenues from Fixed division excluding leased lines and managed services 12

7 Limited VoIP impact on ARPU Retail ARPU mix Q1 05* (NOK) Households on main product lines (e) 332 ** Thousands ISDN/PSTN voice ISDN/PSTN voice and ADSL ISDN/PSTN voice and Internet Pure ADSL ISDN/PSTN voice ISDN/PSTN voice and Internet ISDN/PSTN voice and ADSL ADSL and VoIP Pure ADSL 0 Q403 Q104 Q204 Q304 Q404 Q105 *Average revenue per household ex VAT. **Pure ADSL includes full access fee 13 Actions to maintain subscribers and ARPU Launched more flexible ISDN/PSTN and DSL subscriptions Increased bandwidths Launched VoIP offering to consumers Developing integrated solutions and new IPservices Continue to differentiate Telenor s offering through customer service, quality and security 14

8 Net migration effects on Fixed revenues Q1 04 Voice traffic & subscr. ISP traffic & subscr ADSL Other Q1 05 Retail revenue changes per product line (mnok). Wholesale changes are included in Other. 15 Lost revenues require actions Revenues from Fixed operations decline Cost reductions are required Planned cost reductions of 1.5 bn NOK to maintain margins COGS Labour Sales & marketing 1.5 bn Other Property Material & maintenance 16

9 Network upgrades needed to meet broadband growth Road map towards All-IP Router upgrades initiated Migration of transport network finished in 2008 Improved access network to follow All IP network SERVICE PLATFORMS ACCESS TRANSPORT 17 Fixed telecom an industry in transition More demanding customers Convergence enabled by new technology New players entering the scene Substantial growth in broadband subscribers and traffic Infrastructure must change to cost efficiently meet demand 18

10 Services - next important broadband differentiator Availability and coverage Bandwidth and pricing Differentiation via services 19 All-IP enables Telenor to scale as we grow All IP handles traffic growth efficiently More dynamic and cost effective use of the infrastructure than old switched networks. All IP reduces OPEX and CAPEX Reduces number of platforms Terminate redundant service platforms Simplified IT handling Gbit/s 8 Traffic increase IP ATM IP/MPLS SDH WDM WDM

11 Competitive landscape is changing New players without infrastructure are entering the market Software suppliers like Microsoft develop new convergent products Large R&D spending from players in consumer electronics Creates new opportunities for Telenor Microsoft Media Center PCs Sony PS2, xbox Broadband connected game consoles 21 Telenor will remain a major player in broadband Triple Play important in next five years 10 operators have launched Migration to digital TV Main focus on the 3 basic services Operators must upgrade networks New players and constellations will occur Telenor among first incumbents to test Satisfied and fully paying customers User interface testing for interactivity Telenor knows how to implement 22

12 Telenor positions itself to offer All-IP services to both business and residential market Triple play to consumers Advanced net centric services to businesses IP 23 The All-IP network Core IP/MPLS Distribution Ethernet/NG-SDH SDH Areas with late IP/MPLS distribution rollout Ethernet / NG-SDH Key features Higher capacity 80x nodes Point-to-point radio or fibre Fewer technologies base station Seamless services PSTN/ISDN GSM, UMTS Ethernet/CWDM Distribution DSL Outback IP based service platform with open standards and common interfaces FTTP Fibre New build areas Core router Distribution router DSLAM or Ethernet switch Access ADSL/ ADSL2+/ SHDSL VDSL2 High capacity DSL areas NG/SDH node 24

13 Main focus - secure long term cash flow from fixed operations OPEX and CAPEX reductions Number of operated network technologies Number of services and platforms Cost effectively handle traffic growth Stable long term cash flow from fixed operations Revenues New revenue sources New services will become important in the next five years Telenor is uniquely positioned Cash flow from operations OPEX and CAPEX 25 Agenda Nordic overview Manage long term cash effects of fixed migration in Norway Sustain margin and market share in Norwegian mobile Develop Danish and Swedish position 26

14 Mobile stronghold in Norway is maintained Subscriber market share Q105 (e)* Market status and trends 28 % 12 % 5 % 56 % Telenor Netcom TnM SP NC SP Reduced market growth vs 2004 Relatively stable market shares Price increasingly important *Telenor estimates Subscriber development* Subscribers Penetration 4,7 4,7 3,4 3,6 3,9 4,1 2,7 102 % 103 % 74 % 80 % 85 % 90 % 61 % Q105 * Number of active SIM cards in Norwegian market Key issues Maintain market share Increase usage Efficient subscriber acquisition and retention 3G roll-out and market development 27 Mobile volumes are growing Telenor s retail subscribers and their outgoing minutes % 47% 46% % 53% 54% Q103 Q104 Q105 Post paid subscribers (000) Pre paid subscribers (000) Voice minutes (mill) 28

15 Price reductions reduces ARPU Four working days less in Q105 against Q Price reductions main driver Q Q Q Q Q Q ARPU AMPU APPM (1/100 NOK) ARPU and AMPU definitions have changed as of first quarter Now, revenues/minutes relating to inbound roaming and revenues/minutes relating to service provider subscribers in Telenor s network are not included. All historical figures have been recalculated. 29 High share of contracts reduces churn % 18 % 18 % 14 % Q102 Q103 Q104 Q % 55 % 50 % 45 % 40 % 35 % 30 % 25 % 20 % 15 % 10 % 5 % 0 % Churn management tools Contracts Retention activities Handset-sales Post paid subscribers Post paid churn 30

16 Competition determines SAC levels Subscriber acquisition and retention costs mnok Rationale for matching challengers Keep market position Positive marginal profit on net adds Develop market toward mobile data through better terminals Q104 Q204 Q304 Q404 Q Steady evolution in mobile data Data related volumes Millions 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0, Mega Byte (WAP and Data) Retail revenues from mobile data related services (mnok) % % % 133 8% ,5 Messages in billions 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0, Outgoing messages (SMS, MMS and Content) SMS/MMS Content Data 32

17 Smart 3G roll-out Estimated UMTS handset share among Telenor s subscribers 100 % 80 % 60 % Status Roll-out on track Covering the homes of 2,8 million citizens Service providers 3G enabled 40 % 20 % 0 % Sophisticated services Capacity Handsets Coverage Basic services Focus in 2005 Upgrade entire GSM network with EDGE Develop roaming agreements Increase adoption of new terminals 33 Highlights from Mobile in Norway Keeping market share Capturing growth from fixed migration Reducing churn Increased portion of post paid subscribers Growing data volumes 3G roll-out on track 34

18 Agenda Nordic overview Manage long term cash effects of fixed migration in Norway Maintain margin and market shares in Norwegian mobile Develop Danish and Swedish operations 35 Objective - Sustain market share and improve long term margin Stable subscriber market share Q1 05 (e)* Telia Denmark 22 % Other 11 % TDC 41 % Market status and trends No consolidation effects on competitive level Price is still a dominant force Handset subsidy levels remain high Continued high sales of terminals *Telenor estimates Sonofon 26 % Increased ARPU (DKK) Key issues EBITDA margin reached 21% Stable post paid customer base, net-loss of prepaid subscribers Post paid churn reduced especially in the most profitable segments. Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 Q1 05 ARPU AMPU

19 Maintaining market share Post paid churn* all time low 1400 Market development Stable post paid customer base Post paid churn reduced High churn on pre paid Continued retention focus 3G offering will be resolved % 37 % 34 % 32 % 30 % 25 % Q403 Q104 Q204 Q304 Q404 Q105 Post paid subscr (000) Pre paid subscr (000) Post paid churn 37 Immediate actions increased EBITDA above 20% Sonofon revenues (mnok) and EBITDA% Ongoing focus on cost control and cost reductions Reduced Subscriber Acquisition and retention Cost (SAC) Integration and downsizing initiatives % 25 % 19 % % 21 % 1 % Q Q Q Q Q Q

20 Telenor Sweden - a challenger in fixed business segment Offering Fixed voice and data towards business segment Fixed voice and data wholesale offering to consumer resellers Basic mobile offering through MVNO on Tele2 s network Relative positions* in fixed business segment Telenor TDC Ventelo MCI Tele2 Citylink B2 * Relative 2004 revenues (msek) from business segment among fixed players excluding TeliaSonera Source: Company reports and Telenor estimates. Wholesale revenues not included 39 Segmented growth strategy Targeting niches that outperform market Own offering IPVPN Wholesale DSL through service providers Swedish broadband and IPVPN growth* Business Residential Increase revenue from large accounts Large accounts want Nordic deals Deals are increasingly made in Stockholm Existing revenue at risk without Nordic presence IP-VPN Other datacom Leased lines * Telenor estimates 40

21 Summary - Telenor set on maintaining strong cash flows in the Nordics Balancing out fixed migration effects in Norway Keeping mobile stronghold in Norway Getting Mobile back on track in Denmark Improving results and position in Sweden 41 Q & A 42 42