Analyst Day. Energy That Powers Life
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1 Analyst Day Energy November 24, 2014
2 01/01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/2014 MW Energy Supply and Demand The Current Wholesale Electric Power Demand to Generation Curve Disponibilidad Generation Availability Generación [MW] [MW] Demanda Electric Power Potencia Demand [MW] [MW]
3 Energy The Current Wholesale Spot Market Price (average daily) Daily Average Market Price Curve (in $/kwh)
4 $/kwh (Constant) Energy The Current Wholesale Prices Spot Market Price Regulated Market Price (MC) Unregulated Market Price (*) Water inflows, reservoir levels and fuel availability and prices are some of the variables that directly influence spot market prices.
5 Energy Long-term industry outlook Projected demand 100,000 95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 Comparación Comparison de of Escenarios (GWh) (GWh) Esc. Alto Marzo Esc. Medio Marzo Esc. Bajo Marzo Esc. Alto Julio Esc. Medio Julio Esc. Bajo Julio The average growth rates in the high, medium, and low scenarios for July 2014 are 3.0%, 2.9% y 2.8%, respectively.
6 Energy Long-term industry outlook Projected demand and expansion in generation Installed Capacity Projected Capacity Projected Electric Power Demand Projected Margin Source: XM, UPME, internal calculations Historical Electric Power Demand
7 Energy Long-term industry outlook Expansion Projects Project Capacity [MW] Expected start-up date Agent Laguneta (H) 36 December 2014 (U2) EMGESA Carlos Lleras Restrepo (H) 78.1 December 2014 HIDROELÉCTRICA DEL ALTO PORCE Sogamoso (H) 820 January 2015 ISAGEN Gecelca 3 (T) 164 March 2015 GECELCA Cucuana (H) 60 March 2015 EPSA Tasajero II (T) 160 December 2015 TERMOTASAJERO San Miguel (H) 42 December 2015 LA CASCADA Quimbo (H) 420 April 2016 EMGESA Gecelca 32 (T) 250 December 2016 GECELCA Pescadero Ituango (H) 1200 December 2019 EPM Porvenir II (H) 352 December 2021* CELSIA Termonorte (T) 88 Incierto** TERMONORTE Ambeima (H) 45 Will not be constructed (guarantees executed) EMPRESA DE ENERGÍA DE LOS ANDES * According to the relevant information submitted by CELSIA to the financial superintendent, project startup will be delayed by more than one year. ** Because of the project builder, the same situation as occurred with Termocol could be repeated
8 GWh Energy Long-term industry outlook ENFICC Balance (demand vs firm generation) Disponible (GPPS) (0) 0 0 GPPS Nuevas (incluye asig. previas) Existentes Demanda Objetivo * Esc. Alto con Panamá ** * Projected by ISAGEN ** UPME Scenario Jul 2014
9 03/11/ dic dic ene feb mar abr may jun jul ago sep oct nov nov dic ene feb mar abr may jun jul ago sep oct-16 GWh/día Energy Long-term industry outlook Energy Balance 300 Balance Energético del SIN Energy Balance of National Electric Grid Menores GasCasnare Cogenera Carbon GasCosta Deficit GasInter CombLiq co:hydro Demanda por sistema - inelastica Energia afluente
10 Energy Long-term industry outlook Regulatory Trends WEM Reliability Charge Adjustments ORM Electric power transmission New transmission charge regime New charge regime for use of distribution Energy Sales Regulation Law self-generation New rates formula - regulated users Fuels Natural Gas Auctions NG supply reliability
11 Energy Risks and challenges for the energy industry Have an energy policy in place that ensures efficient generating facilities Solve the natural gas availability problem for existing generating facilities Develop standardized LP public contracts market Improve institutional policy to guarantee timely electricity infrastructure planning and execution Ensure regulation of new Renewable Energies Law (Law 1715)
12 THANK YOU! Analyst Day
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