Prospects for a better linkage of the Polish market with the surrounding national electricity markets
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1 Prospects for a better linkage of the Polish market with the surrounding national electricity markets Electricity Trading in CEE Region Session Zbigniew Olszewski Member of Management Board, TOE CEO, EGL Polska Marek Kulesa Director, TOE Prague, 6 June 2007
2 Introduction PWC Survey Report 2006 Electricity Trading in Central and Eastern Europe Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 2 >
3 Formal-legal conditions PWC Survey Report 2006 Electricity Trading in Central and Eastern Europe Traders need sufficient liquidity to make a market structure attractive Traders are not satisfied with the management of auctions and their timing POLAND - market with the highest growth potential Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 3 >
4 Formal-legal conditions Electricity directive 2003/54/EC of 26 June 2003 concerning common rules for the internal market in electricity Regulation on Cross-Border Exchanges in Electricity 1228/2003 of 26 June 2003 with Annex of 9 November 2007 European Commission Green Paper of March 2006 Directive 2005/89/EC of 18 January 2006 concerning measures to safeguard security of electricity supply and infrastructure investment Polish Energy Law Act of 10 April 1997 and (novelisation) of 12 January 2007 European Commission Strategie Eenergy Review of January 2007 Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 4 >
5 Formal-legal conditions UE PL Sustainability (1) (3) Competitiveness (2) (2) Security of supply (3) (1) Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 5 >
6 Introduction Electricity 2006 Transmission grid in Poland Number of energy end-users 15.7 million Generation capacties Gross electric energy production Total energy consumption Load: max (24/01/2006) min (21/05/2006) MW 161,9 TWh 150 TWh MW MW Source: PSE-Operator, ERA, TOE Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 6 >
![GWh Formal-legal conditions GDP and GDP growth 566,9 Gross generation values 2006 [GWh] USD Bn 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Nominal GDP 185.5 188 1.0% 1.4% Real GDP growth 252.7 216.5 5.3% 3.8% 303.](/docs-images/24/3510966/images/7-0.png "7 3.4% 6,1% 15.0% 13.0% 11.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% Renevable Industrial Hydro Natural gas Lignite Hard Coal 1828 8 172 2 764 2 765 53 464 93 060 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-1.")
7 GWh Formal-legal conditions GDP and GDP growth 566,9 Gross generation values 2006 [GWh] USD Bn Nominal GDP % 1.4% Real GDP growth % 3.8% % 6,1% 15.0% 13.0% 11.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% Renevable Industrial Hydro Natural gas Lignite Hard Coal % 200 Electricity Production & Consumption Electricity Production Mix in 2006 Hydro; 1,71% Natural gas; 1,71% Industrial; 5,04% Renevables; 1,13% Lignite; 32,99% Hard Coal; 57,43% Power Generation Power Consumption Source: PSE-Operator, ERA, TOE Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 7 >
8 Formal-legal conditions Trading companies in Poland concessions ( ) 26 most active trading companies are in TOE (Association of Energy Trading) total sales of the most active trading companies: about 80 TWh (2006) the number of TPA customers: over 40 Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 8 >
9 Formal-legal conditions Vertical integration and concentration would result in lesser competition Number of potential customers on wholesale market would be dramatically reduced Polish Energy Group (PGE): Production Distibution PSE(without grid) BOT 36.0% 26.0% Dolna Odra Power Plant 2 Łódź Distr. Co L-5 Distr Co Rzeszów Distr. Co South Power Group PKE Stalowa Wola Power Plant 17.0% 27.0% Enion Dist Co EnergiaPro Dist. Co. Energa Group Energa Co. Ostrołęka Power Plant 2.0% 17.3% Central Group Enea Co. Kozienice Power Plant 9.0% 16.0% Source: Ministry of Economy Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 9 >
10 General data Stärno SWEDEN Słupsk Krajnik Ełk Alytus LITHUANIA Planned Ross Białystok GERMANY POLAND 110 kv 220 kv 400 kv 750 kv Cable DC 450 kv 400 kv (planned) 400 kv (temporarily 220 kv) not in operation Mikułowa Dobrzeń Wielopole CZECH REPUBLIC Albrechtice Nosovice Zamość Rzeszów Kopanina Krosno BujakówIskrzynia Liskovec Wólka Dobrzyńska-Brześć Lemešany Dobrotwor Chmielnicka UKRAINE Source: PSE Operator Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 10 >
11 General data Technical capabilities of cross border trade [MW] Country Germany Czech Republic Slovakia Current Planned in 2010 Export Import Export Import 1,800-1, Bielarus Ukraine ,200 1,420 Lithuania Sweden Total 2, ,200 3,260 Source PSE-Operator, ARE, SA, TOE Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 11 >
12 General data Export/Import (TWh)(Flows) Export Import Source - PSE Operator Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 12 >
13 General data S 720 D BY Energy market: Cross-border trade (physical flows in 2006) SK 884 Volumes in GWh Source - PSE Operator, TOE Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 13 >
14 General data Physical Flows vs Cross-Border Trade* D CZ D Dev. D A Dev PL D Dev A * Hourly values on 25th October :00-20:00 CZ CZ A Dev PL PL CZ PL SK Dev SK CZ SK Dev. 187 Source: PSE Operator Dev export import Direction and value of physical flows Direction and value of cross border trade Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 14 >
15 General data Cross-Border Auction History No auctions VET and ČEPS Auction Offices start not coordinated auctions on profiles PL D and CZ PL SEPS Auction Office starts not coordinated auctions on profile SK PL In May PSE starts monthly not coordinated auctions on profiles PL CZ/D/SK Coordinated auctions on profiles PSE- O, VET, ČEPS i SEPS (not coordinated on profile PL SK) Coordinated auctions (yearly, monthly and daily) on profiles between PSE- O, VET, EON, ČE PS i SEPS Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 15 >
16 Summary of the auction results Cross Border Trade [GWh] /2005 Export % Import % Cross Border Trade Volume % Source: URE Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 16 >
17 Summary of results of the auctions Reservation period Year 2006 Capacity & price PSE-O CEPS CEPS PSE-O PSE-O SEPS Commercial profile & direction SEPS P SE-O VE-T PSE-O PSE-O VE-T PSE IN PSE OUT Auction Price (EUR/MWh) January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 April 2006 May 2006 June Auction Price (EUR/MWh) Auction Price (EUR/MWh) Auction Price (EUR/MWh) Auction Price (EUR/MWh) Auction Price (EUR/MWh) Auction Price (EUR/MWh) Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 17 >
18 Summary of results of the auctions Reservation period Year 2007 Capacity & price PSE-O CEPS CEPS PSE-O PSE-O SEPS Commercial profile & direction SEPS P SE-O VE-T PSE-O PSE-O VE-T PSE IN PSE OUT Auction Price (EUR/MWh) January 2007 February 2007 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007 June Auction Price (EUR/MWh) Auction Price (EUR/MWh) Auction Price (EUR/MWh) Auction Price (EUR/MWh) Auction Price (EUR/MWh) Auction Price (EUR/MWh) Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 18 >
19 Summary of results of the auctions AUCTION PSE IN PSE OUT YEARLY MONTHLY (JAN-JUN) ENERGY [GWh] vs reduction by more than 50% Source: PSE Operator Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 19 >
![[GWh] 850 870 3 369 1 437 2006 vs.](/docs-images/45/3510966/images/page_19.jpg "2007 reduction by more than 50% Source: PSE Operator Z.Olszewski, M.")
20 moc godzinowa Hourly power Summary of results of daily auctions 1800 PL->DE moce oferowane i zapotrzebowane PL>DE capacity requested and allocated Total Requested Total Allocated godzina Hours 2006 w roku Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 20 >
21 Summary of results of daily auctions 2500 PL->CZ moce oferowane i zapotrzebowane PL>CZE capacity requested and allocated 2000 Hourly power moc godzinowa 1500 Total Requested Total Allocated godziny Hours w 2006 roku Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 21 >
22 moc Hourly power Summary of results of daily auctions 2000 moc zredukowana Curtailed capacities moc zredukowana kwiecień April Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 22 >
23 Negative experience of trade companies What happened in July 2006? curtailment to zero allocated capacities in yearly ( 485 MW) for 7 days and monthly (500 MW) for 9 days auctions unsufficient electricity production? TSO mistake in congestion management? Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 23 >
24 EUR/MWh Negative experience of trade companies Price level vs. reduction 300,00 250,00 200,00 150,00 100,00 50,00 0, EEX [ /MWh] Powernext [ /MWh] OTE [ /MWh] TGE [ /MWh] poee [ /MWh] RBs [ /MWh] REDUKCJE Source PSE-Operator, TGE SA, EEX, TOE Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 24 >
25 Negative experience of trade companies Conclusions (1) steady trend in reduction of offered cross border capacities in coordinated auctions since July 2006 electricity prices in Poland remained unchanged during emergency situation in the Polish grid in July 2006 forced generation fixed price being in force and approved by the regulator blocked market price mechanism in a very efficient way Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, Slajd: 25
26 Negative experience of trade companies Conclusions (2) negative effect of that blockade was transferred fully and exclusively on cross border traders Polish TSO should stick to stipulations of Art. 4.3 of Directive 2005/89/EC Member States shall not discriminate between cross border contracts and national contracts Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, Slajd: 26
27 Thank you for your attention! Towarzystwo Obrotu Energią ul. Czackiego 7/9/11, Warszawa tel fax toe@toe.pl Z.Olszewski, M.Kulesa. Prague, < 27 >
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