Visual Integration of Compound Events. A presentation to the Climate Compact of Southeast Florida

Transcription

1 Visual Integration of Compound Events A presentation to the Climate Compact of Southeast Florida

2 What is the Compact? Agreement between Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe, and Palm Beach County Commissions (set up in 2010) Created Adaptation Action Area Technical foundation for regional climate issues (mitigation and adaptation)

3 Mock presentation Pitch to the Compact Discuss the Compact s targets, issues and challenges Present framework of the visualization tool for integrated networks Walk-through the tool Implementation of the tool

4 Your vision GOAL: Provide a more resilient natural and built physical environment in light of climate change. Working collaboratively among four counties on mitigation and adaptation strategies Adapting and planning for more and possibly new weather-related threats needs to be incorporated into preparedness procedures Bringing additional resources to the region for adaptation activities

5 Are you achieving your vision? Coordinator of 109 communities, 48 different water management, & 28 transportation bodies Key partners: Institute for Sustainable Communities, South Florida Water Management District, The Nature Conservancy, South Florida Regional Planning Council Regional Climate Action Plan published BUT: additional and ongoing analysis is required to further refine our current understanding and to monitor changes in Southeast Florida s risk profile over time

6 Additional challenges Possible confluence of bad events (climatic and non-climatic) that are independently less severe Compound impacts across jurisdictions and across time Improving adaptive management through cross-sectoral and crossjurisdictional collaboration

7 Miami Beach Compound Flooding 9 of rain in 3 hours + extreme high tide = mess

8 Distribution of Hazard Events Adapted from: Distribution of Hazard Events (count) and Hazard Losses in Florida from (Sheldus 2014)

9 Occurrence of Compound Hazard Events Adapted from: Distribution of Hazard Events (count) and Hazard Losses in Florida from (Sheldus 2014)

10 Compound of Social and Physical Hazard Events Water supply failure Drainage system failure Adapted from: Distribution of Hazard Events (count) and Hazard Losses in Florida from (Sheldus 2014) Epidemic

11 What can we offer you? Easy-to-use visual planning tool to help you identify joint impacts of hazards Recognition of overlapping jurisdictions and responsibilities for the planning and response to impacts Scenario planning opportunities to test different probabilities of these hazards Highlighting effective adaptive management entry points to ensure resource efficiency

12 How does it work? Influence Diagram A graphic and statistical tool to specify conditional probabilities and flow of information needed for risk evaluation and decision making Nodes Uncertainty node is drawn as an oval sea level temperature Green climate variables Blue natural events Purple deterministic events Grey Orange non-natural hazards hurricane natural hazards heavy rainfall storm surge flooding rip current high winds epidemic Impact node is drawn as diamond Adaptation intervention is drawn as rectangle road damage water retention ponds

13 Identify joint impacts Explore overlapping jurisdictions Dept of Transportation Local Government South Florida Water Management District

14 Identify and explore future scenarios Dept of Transportation

15 Test adaptive management solutions Water catchment area (reduces probability of damage) Dept of Transportation

16 - 5,500 miles of public roads - 8 movable bridges and 195 vehicular or pedestrian bridges Dept of Transportation Road & bridge maintenance services: - Pothole repair - Pavement repair - Drain cleaning and repair - Replacing drain covers - Stormwater pump station maintenance - Movable bridge operation - Mechanical, electrical and structural bridge maintenance and repairs

17 How does it work?

18 Implementation of the tool

19 Benefits Strengthen capacity planning amongst regional stakeholders to recognise compound hazards and impacts. Establish more effective collaboration and discuss and implement efficient adaptive management options. Transferable applications to other areas/contexts, where multiple stakeholders experience overlapping challenges and responsibilities and thus can increase their adaptive capacity through collaboration. Test where to target adaptation options most efficiently through scenario pathway options

20 Thank you!