Workshop on Rehabilitation of Hydropower

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Susan Dalton
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1 Workshop on Rehabilitation of Hydropower World Bank HQ, Washington DC October 12-13, 2011 Prioritizing Rehabilitation Projects for Hydro Plants

2 Outline of the Presentation Topics to be Covered The Task Data Sources and Limitations The Economic Analysis Model Findings from Application of the Economic Model The Need for Hydro Plant Rehabilitation Master Plans Contact Information 2

Findings from Application of the Economic Model The Need

3 The Task What was to be accomplished To develop a coarse screening tool that could be used to assess the needs for hydro plant rehabilitation To develop an economic analysis model that could be used to give an indication of the possible IRR of individual rehabilitation projects To apply these tools to the universe of hydro plants in two regions: Central America and Mexico Africa To draw conclusions on the size of the hydro rehab markets in these geographical areas and provide comments on implementation of rehab projects 3

rehabilitation projects To apply these tools to the universe of hydro plants in two regions: Central America and Mexico Africa To

4 The Data Source and a High Level Summary Data Source The World Electric Power Plants database published by Platts, a division of McGraw Hill, was selected for use This database provides information on the size and year of commissioning of each unit in each hydro plant in each country of the two regions In Africa the installed capacity base is approximately 23,000 MW in 137 plants. Of this some 8,500 MW is over 35 years old In Central America and Mexico the installed capacity base is over 15,000 MW in 109 plants. Of this close to 4,000 MW is over 35 years old 4

country of the two regions In Africa the installed capacity base is approximately 23,000 MW in 137 plants.

5 Limitations of the Available Data Missing Information While the database provides important information, no comprehensive information sources were located for other important parameters like: Date and scope of last rehabilitation carried out for individual units/plants Annual energy generation by unit/plant Available capacity by unit/plant Plant specific factors that would influence the need for rehab physical, operational, institutional Hydrology trends and water flow constraints (both upstream and downstream) 5

individual units/plants Annual energy generation by unit/plant Available capacity by unit/plant Plant specific factors that would

6 Economic Analysis Model Two scenarios were considered: Life Extension Rehabilitation Scenarios Considered recovery of degradation associated with aging in terms of turbine efficiency, turbine capacity and unit availability as well as technology gain for generator efficiency and capacity Upgrade In addition to the life extension case, the benefits of technology gain for turbine efficiency and capacity Factors for each of these gains were estimated for technology change these were tied to year of commissioning while for degradation recovery these were tied to age Typical values were used for rehabilitation costs, rehab project duration, revenue loss during implementation and selling prices 6

benefits of technology gain for turbine efficiency and capacity Factors for each of these gains were estimated for technology change these were tied to year of commissioning

7 Summary of Results for Central America and Mexico Results for Plants with Positive IRRs 7

8 Summary of Results for Some of the Countries in Africa Results for Plants with Positive IRRs 8

9 Moving to Site Specific Factors - The Need for Rehabilitation Master Plans Master Plans A planned basis for obtaining the site specific data needed to assess rehab requirements Much of the installed capacity is owned by government utilities it can be difficult to finance rehab internally when there are needs for new plants and to attract private sector capital for rehab of government assets In countries heavily dependent on hydro power it can be difficult to schedule downtime for rehab In countries with multiple hydro plants, many with multiple units, doing rehab on a one-off basis can be less effective than a planned ongoing approach that allows replication and standardization of things like control systems Doing rehab on a planned basis also allows for steps to extend the life of a rehab through training and activities to allow enhanced operation 9 and preventative maintenance

countries heavily dependent on hydro power it can be difficult to schedule downtime for rehab In countries with multiple hydro plants, many with multiple units, doing rehab on a one-off basis can be

10 Significance of Hydro Power for Countries in Central America and Mexico Countries in Central America and Mexico 10

11 Significance of Hydro Power for Selected Countries in Africa Selected Countries in Africa 11

12 National Power Sector Master Planning What is a Power Sector Master Plan? A plan for development of a country s power sector over the next years The plan takes into account: The current system Expected future demand for electricity Resource options including DSM Transmission needs The Plan seeks to set out the combination of power developments that best meet the national interests 12

account: The current system Expected future demand for electricity Resource options including DSM

13 The Main Components to be Covered in a Rehabilitation Master Plan For a Selected Country or Operating Region in a Country Reconnaissance mission to all or selected plants to observe the general condition of the assets and review operating records/procedures Set rehabilitation priorities for the short and medium terms and define longer term objectives/programs Carry out feasibility studies of rehabilitation options for the highest priority plants Carry-out rehabilitation projects based on the results of the feasibility studies; apply learnings from initial projects to future projects Implement training programs and/or twinning arrangements to enhance ongoing operating and maintenance procedures Provide for adequate spare parts and funding of operations and maintenance activities 13

of rehabilitation options for the highest priority plants Carry-out rehabilitation projects based on the results of the feasibility studies; apply learnings from initial projects to future projects

14 Points of Contact with the Consultant Contact Information For communication directly with members of the Consultant s team: Charlie Gibbs, Project Director, cgibbs@hatch.ca Bob Griesbach, Project Manager, rgriesbach@hatch.ca 14

the Consultant s team: Charlie Gibbs, Project Director,

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