Resource Planning Opportunities

Transcription

1 Resource Planning Opportunities A Manitoba Hydro Perspective for the Planning Advisory Committee April 27, 2011 Dan Prowse Manitoba Hydro April 27, 2011 Coordinating Sector 1

2 It s Time to Model Flexible Resources Industry studies value storage, regulation, hydropower and combining wind & hydropower Other countries develop storage/ramp capabilities Manitoba hydropower plays a unique role. Future growth is both in progress and planned Current MISO planning tools have limited models of external resources & intra-hour behavior It s time to model benefits of internal & external flexible resources 2

3 Value of Storage MISO Energy Storage Study considers effects of capacity, energy stored, discharge rates on value to MISO. Note: MISO uses Plexos to study value to MISO of Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) 3

4 Value of Regulation/Load Follow A flywheel supplier told FERC that fast ramping regulation can be more than four times more effective than slow ramping resources. Note: cost and value of regulation/load following depends upon RTO demand and resource characteristics so study required. 4

5 Value of Diverse Resources The DOE/EPRI study Quantifying the Full Value of Hydropower in the Transmission Grid is a multi-year series of studies of future scenarios, case studies of existing resources, market rule evaluation and synthesis of valuation approaches. Note: what is the value of diversity? Example: no on-shore Japanese wind turbine damaged in earthquake, offshore wind farm survived 5 meter tsunami. 5

6 Other Planning Approaches EPRI reports: - EPRI evaluating Plexos to capture intra-hour and ancillary service market effects - Norway is spending more to study benefits of hydro storage than the US - Europe is exploring very fast and frequent response reversible pump storage units. Four new pump storage plants are anticipated for North America but sixty-two projects are anticipated for Europe 6

7 European Example of Pumped Storage Iberdrola, the largest producer of wind energy in the world (4,500 MW in Spain), believes that the best option to firm the variability of wind capacity is pumped storage. It is building an 852-MW pumpedstorage plant in Spain and investigating construction of three additional pumped-storage plants with a total capacity of 1,640 MW to help manage wind variability. 7

8 MH Reservoir Storage The MH hydro system can be considered a super-sized pumped storage plant with a very low minimum load and a very fast ramping rate. Just one Manitoba Hydro plant has 1000 times more storage than a Compressed Air Energy Storage plant 500 MW Grand Rapids GS (Scale: about 300 miles) 8

9 Reliability Benefit of Fast MH Response On Sept 18 th, 2007 NW MISO separated from the Eastern Interconnection: Within 2 seconds, MH generation reduced 1000 MW to limit frequency rise to 60.8 Hz At MISO s request, MH quickly reduced generation a further 500 MW to manage frequency and enable reconnection. In another separation event, a 1200 MW MH reduction protected a Sk/Mb/ND/MN island. 9

10 Interface to Fast MH Response EAR (External Asynchronous Resource) interface puts MH resources under MISO dispatch to extent practically and politically feasible. MH resources are capable of responding 500 MW in the first minute but ramp rate is usually limited by MISO. 10

11 MH Energy Storage The MH system is designed for all flow years (including low flow years) so spare capacity exists which provides energy storage with hourly, daily and weekly cycling. 11

12 Keeyask How Should MISO Planning Account for MH s Hydropower Conawapa Capabilities? Wuskwatim HVDC New HVDC - Bipole III ( MW) Generation - Wuskwatim (200 MW) - *Keeyask (695 MW) - *Conawapa (1485 MW) Winnipeg Riel Station 500 kv D602F 12

13 Future MH Hydropower Projects Conawapa Project (hr/daily/wkly cycling via Stephens L.) THOMPSON Keeyask Project (hourly/daily cycling) Limestone Kettle Õ Õ WINNIPEG Wuskwatim (under construction) Õ Kelsey THOMPSON Keeyask and Conawapa projects will Õ Õ Õ Long Spruce Stephens Lake hourly to weekly storage increase the value of existing hourly to weekly storage 13

14 MH Wuskwatim Generating Station (2011/12 In Service) 14

15 Keeyask Generating Station 695 MW 15

16 Keeyask Generating Station 16

17 Conawapa Generating Station 1485 MW 17

18 Manitoba Hydro Lower Nelson (3600 MW, 5000 MW with Conawapa) We need a study of the value this unique set of resources can bring to MISO. 18

19 Current MISO Planning Approach MISO planning uses sophisticated models of demand, transmission capacity, resource economics and reliability. Challenges include: 1. Static external model- MH system response to market signals not modelled 2. Hourly model- approximate representation of intra-hour behavior (ancillary services market, ramping) 3. Limited model of external resources- restricted set of historic or simulated wind data and historic energy flows from external hydro & other resources 19

20 Potential Benefits of New Tools: Ideally new tools to better model flexible resources would have: 1. Improved external model- an adequate model of how MH hydropower and system responds to energy and AS markets 2. Sub-hourly model- improved representation of intra-hour behavior (ancillary services market, ramping) 3. Improved model of characteristics of renewables- improved model of hydro storage, water flow, production efficiencies, constraints 20

21 Summary: Current planning does not capture how Manitoba hydropower responds to MISO market signals or the value of flexible resources New study tools can address benefits of existing and future Manitoba Hydro resources and other flexible resources resulting in a better estimate of value to MISO Dan Prowse Manitoba Hydro April 27, 2011 Thank You 21

22 Some Further Thoughts: 22

23 Value of Complementary Resources Recommendations to Integrate High Values of Variable Generation*: 1. Develop diverse & complementary resources 2. Flexible resources including energy storage 3. Significant transmission additions & upgrades 4. Greater access to larger pools of generation & demand, address minimum generation issues, make good use of energy-limited resources * World Wind Energy International yearbook 2010 Special Report Combining WIND and HYDRO International Hydropower Assoc. submission authored by Manitoba Hydro 23

24 Suggested Planning Enhancements: Considerations beyond more detailed representations of resource options and markets: 1. Diversity- hedge not just against long term price trends but against abrupt supply disruptions, wide-spread power system emergencies, etc 2. Political- extreme differences in climate change scenarios across globe (80% renewables in Germany by 2050) 3. Robustness- incremental resource decisions may produce an inappropriate resource technology mix or generation/transmission/ demand resource/ smart grid investment mix 24