Haibo Huang Supervised by: Darius Bartlett (Dept. of Geog.), Fan Hong (IICS)

Transcription

1 Preparing for and Adapting to the likely Consequences of Sea Level Rise The Use of GIS Visualization Techniques Haibo Huang Supervised by: Darius Bartlett (Dept. of Geog.), Fan Hong (IICS)

2 Erosion Are we really prepared?

3 Sea level is going up The 3rd assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) declared a rise of global average sea level of 9 to 88 centimeters between 1990 and A new study by World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) confirmed the rate of global sea level rise during the 20th century of 1.7±0.3mm yr -1

4 It s just a matter of time

5 SLR issues in China -- In 2007, sea level of coastal regions in China rose by 62mm (compared to national mean record). The mean rising rate over the last 30 years has reached 2.6mm per year, higher than global mean rate. Source: SOA

6 -- In 2007, 13 storm surges and 17 temperate cyclones were recorded, 9 of which caused significant disasters, especially in Zhejiang, Guangdong and Hainan provinces. The intensity is much higher than historic records. (State Oceanic Administration, 2008)

7 Source: Geomantics The death of England

8 To some people, it s getting worse The Maldives is one of the small states. We are not in a position to change the course of events in the world. But what you do or do not do here will greatly influence the fate of my people. It can also change the course of world history. --H.E. Maumoon Abdul Gayoom (Maldives), at 3rd Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC, 2005

9 Source: Nicholls, R. & Klein, R. To deal with: Bio-physical problems Coastal erosion, habitat destruction, contamination of soil and water, water quality and quantity, Human problems Decline of environmentallycompatible sectors, competitive use for resources, destruction of culture heritage, loss of property and development, degraded resources, Source: Connolly, N. & Cummins, V.

10 Research interests on coping strategies Our coastal zones are facing serious problems of habitat destruction, water contamination, coastal erosion and resource depletion. These has been a lack of knowledge, inappropriate and uncoordinated laws, a failure to involve stakeholders, and a lack of coordination between the administrative bodies. -- European Strategy for ICZM (EC, 2000) 1. Awareness 2. Legislation 3. Participation 4. Coordination

11 The role of visualization

12 The techniques are being innovated

13 Issues to be considered 1. Scale issues Generalization of the real world (expression of temporal-spatial evolution, multiple geographic processes) Geographic scale of the area being visualized (large-scale visualization desirable for planning purposes) 2. User acceptance Present means of communication, benefits and drawbacks, decision-making context, impact on meeting stakeholders, data needs, flexibility of viewing, supplementary background information, resource considerations 3. Integration of territorial/marine data 4. Error and uncertainty 5. Incorporating thematic data

14 Visit China (26th April ~ 6th May) Site 1: Dongzhao Port, Nantong Key words: mud flat, growing sediment, oyster reef, fishing port

15 Site 2: Binhai, Yancheng Key words: erosion, salt fields, coast defence

16 Site 3: Haibin New District, Lianyungang Key words: rocky coast, marine reclamation

17 The EU IMCORE project

18 Project aim: To promote a transnational, innovative and sustainable approach to reducing the Ecological, Social and Economic impacts of climate change on the coastal resources of North West Europe. Objectives: 1. To demonstrate how the innovative expert couplet approach (i.e. collaboration between coastal managers and scientists using the principles of sustainability science), can help with the effective implementation of adaptive management strategies for coastal resources. 2. To improve the regional viability of our coastal sectors by developing common decision support tools and techniques for future planning. 3. To provide coastal managers with the capacity to implement adaptive management strategies by providing examples of strategies tested at nine pilots and technology such as visualisation tools, specialised software, best practice guidelines and a management process indicator set will be incorporated in a freely available Multimedia Distance Learning Too set of tools / skills developed, tested and fine-tuned as representative sites across North West Europe. Source: Jeremy, G.

19 Teamwork, of course Project Composition: Partners / 5 member states -- 8 Research Centres -- 6 local authorities (+ 4 subpartners) -- 2 umbrella associations -- 1 SME Main Audience: -- European decision makers and coordination bodies -- National level decision makers -- Sub national and local stakeholders

20 Visualization in IMCORE WP1 Innovative approaches to coastal management WP2 Identifications of drivers for climate change and related issues WP3 Future scenario building KEY OUTPUT: Demonstration Technologies for the Visualization of Coastal futures covering three technological approaches; Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Web Based Virtual Reality, and a Customized Simulator will be developed to demonstrate potential aids to adaptive management in response to climate change impacts in the coastal zone. WP4 Learning to adapt WP5 Influencing change Source: imcore.eu

21 What do visualizations mean here -- We make pictures out of data and local knowledge, including future pictures to help people understand choices and options -- We work with scenarios and provide possible future pathways for communities What do people want to know? e.g. nuclear power station and sea walls

22 Source: UBC, CALP

23 What we have at the moment Never lack of data!

24 Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study (CFRAMS) -- A study of the entire Lee Catchment, including the River Lee, its tributaries and Cork Harbour, is now being undertaken. -- The hydraulic computer modelling of the rivers and Cork Harbour uses the data from the surveys and hydrological analysis to predict water levels Project Newsletter, Dec 08

25 360 full mission simulator, National Maritime College of Ireland (NMCI)

26 Bibliography 1. State Oceanic Administration, China s Sea Level Bulletin 2007 (Online) Chen, J., The Impact of Sea Level Rise on China s Coastal Areas and Its Disaster Hazard Evaluation. Journal of Coastal Research, 13(3): Chen, Z. and Stanley, D., Sea-Level Rise on Eastern China s Yangtze Delta. Journal of Coastal Research, 14(1): Jude, S., Investigating the Potential Role of Visualization Techniques in Participatory Coastal Management. Coastal Management, 36: Hou, Y., Chen, X. and Li, Y., Application of 3S Technologies in Integrated Coastal Zone Management. Hydrographic Surveying and Charting, 25(3): Church, J. A. and White, N.J., A 20th Century Acceleration in Global Sea-level Rise. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L01602 And more

27 Thank you! 谢谢!