THE PRESIDENCY, BUREAU OF PUBLIC ENTERPRISES

Transcription

1 THE PRESIDENCY, BUREAU OF PUBLIC ENTERPRISES POWER PRIVATIZATION:OBJECTIVES, CURRENT STATUS, PROSPECTS & CHALLENGES By Ibrahim Baba Gana Ag Director (Electric Power) BPE A Presentation to the Breakfast meeting of the Lagos Business School 11/9/2013 1

2 Introduction Outline Objectives of FGN Privatization Programme Transaction to Date Benefits & Effects of Privatization of the Power sector Prospects & Challenges Conclusion 2

3 Introduction At the onset of the democratically elected civilian administration in 1999, the Nigerian electric power sector had reached, perhaps, the lowest point in its 100 year history: Of the 79 generation units in the country, only 19 units were operational. Average daily generation was 1,750 MW. No new electric power infrastructure was built between The newest plant was completed in 1990 and the last transmission line built in An estimated 90 million people were without access to grid electricity. Accurate and reliable estimates of industry losses were unavailable,butwerebelievedtobeinexcessof50%. 3

4 Geography of Economic Activity 4

5 Nigeria on the World Stage Country * Generation Capacity (GW) Watts per capita S. Africa Egypt Nigeria (25 available) Ghana USA ,180 Germany ,468 UK ,316 Brazil China India Indonesia Sources: World Fact book - * Energy Information Administration

6 Effect of Power Outages 6

7 Objectives OF FGN Power Reform To reduce the cost of doing business in Nigeria so as to attract new investment through the provision of quality and dependable power supply, as necessary to grow the economy via industrial, commercial and socio-domestic activities; To improve the efficiency of the distribution, generation and transmission networks, which were comatose To provide Nigerians with basic and affordable electricity infrastructure, a key to enabling them create employment for themselves To create a robust, commercial, competitive and sustainable electricity market that is private sector drive To inject private sector managerial expertise and capital into the sector To reduce government expenditure and in the sector and redirect savings to other social requirements 7

8 Value Chain in Power Production and Delivery Gas Supply/ Transport Tariff Wholesale Tariff for Power Wheeling Charge Retail Tariff for Power Gas Supply/ Transport Bill Transmission Bill Bills Gas Payments TuOS Payment Payment of Bills PPA Agreement PPA Payment Drive is to see commercial performance improvement so that each entity can adequately handle: (1) Payment of invoices (2) Salaries (3) O+M and system improvement (4) Reasonable return on investment (ROI) 8

9 Transaction Update Privatisation of the PHCN Successor Companies recommenced in December 2010, with the BPE as the lead agency responsible for driving the transaction The Requests for Expression of Interest were followed by a series of road shows to promote the transactions. Road shows were held in: Lagos, Nigeria Dubai, United Arab Emirates London, Great Britain New York, United States Johannesburg, South Africa BPE received 331 EOIs on March 4, 2011 and subsequently evaluated them, with a resultant shortlist 9

10 Transaction Update Hydro Thermal Distribution Firms Short Listed Firms Purchasing Bid Documents Short Listed Firms Purchasing Bid Documents Percentage Hydro % Thermal % Distribution % Total % 10

11 Transaction Timeline- Milestones Achieved Milestone Date Achieved Draft Industry Agreements Posted August 15, 2011 Deadline to confirm intention to bid, $20,000 fee due for purchase of RFP documents Issuance of RFP, Information Memorandum Documents August 26, 2011 September 1, 2011 Access to virtual Data Room September 1, 2011 Pre-Due Diligence Conference October 14, 2011 Opening of Physical Data Rooms October 24, 2011 Bidders Site Visits November 14- January 30, 2011 Transaction and Industry Review Conference November 28 and 29,

12 Transaction Timeline Committed Bid Timeline Milestone Generation Distribution Date Date Issue Revised Legal Documents March 30, March 30, Submission of Comments by Bidders April 20, 2012 April 20, 2012 on the Legal Documents Distribution/Issuance of Final Industry and Bid Documents May 11, 2012 May 11, 2012 Bid Submission July 17, 2012 July 31, 2012 Finalize Technical Evaluation August 14, August 28, NCP Approval of Technical August 28, September 11, Evaluation Deadline for Submission of Post- September October 12, Qualification Security 18, Financial Bid Opening September October 16, 25, NCP Approval and Announcement of October 29, October 29, Preferred Bidder

13 Transaction Update Contd... The opening of the Virtual and Physical Data Room Virtual Data Room opened September 1, 2011 (over 600 users were invited, with over 50,000 unique views of documents in the VDR) Physical Data Room opened for a month for all 17 successor companies on October 24, 2011 Site Visit This commenced on November and was conducted for a period of three months 13

14 Transaction Update Contd... Transaction and Industry Conference A 2-day conference was held in Abuja, November 28 th -29 th, 2011 Several papers were presented: MYTO, ATC&C Loss reduction evaluation process, Gas supply and transportation issues, Overview of industry & transaction agreements, World Bank s PRG and Transmission Issues Final Bidding Documents Issued March Bidding documents were issued to bidders and final comments were received by April 20. The final bidding documents were issued to investors on May 11,

15 Transaction Update Contd... Bid submission and evaluation process: 25 GENCO proposals were received on July 17, 2012; and 54 proposals were received for the DISCOs on July 31, 2012 Three committees (with members from BPE, NERC, MOP, NEXANT, CPCS, PTFP & NIAF)were constituted to evaluate the bids Officials from the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and Independent Corruption Practices Commission (ICPC) and SSS served as observers NCP approved 9 prequalified bidders for the GENCOs on August 14, 2012, while 31 prequalified bidders were approved by NCP for the DISCOs on September 18, 2012 The Financial bid opening ceremony was held on September 25, 2012, for the Gencos, and October 16, 2012 for the Discos NCP, on October 29, 2012 approved the five preferred bidders for the Gencos & 10 preferred bidders for the Discos 15

16 Transaction Update Contd The emergence of preferred bidders triggered the process of negotiations of the share sale, shareholders and performance agreements Negotiations held with bidders in January 2013 Transaction and Industry documents signed with all parties on February 21, 2013 This automatically required bidders to pay 25% of the acquisition cost by March 21, 2013 and the balance of 75% by August

17 Transaction update The following firms are the current owners of the successor companies 4power consortium Port-Harcourt Aura Energy Ltd Jos Integrated Energy Dist. & Mkt. Ibadan & Yola Interstate Electrics Enugu KANN Consortium Utility Company Ltd Abuja KEPCO/NEDC Consortium Ikeja Sahelian Power SPV Ltd Kano VIGEO Holdings, - Benin West Power and Gas - Eko, We have also concluded Kaduna and Afam and preferred bidders have emerged Kaduna preferred bidder is North west power consortium while Afam preferred bidder is Taleveras group We will close this transaction in about 6 weeks Transcorp - Ughelli Amperion - Geregu CMEC/EUAFRIC Sapele Mainstream Energy Solutions Ltd - Kainji North-South Power Company Ltd Shiroro All of them paid the required 75% by August Companies to be handed over as from October ; 17

18 Transaction Update (Resolution of labor Issues) A major encumbrance that could have stalled the privatization programme After a protracted negotiation with the Unions for 14 Months an agreement was reached on December 12, 2012 with the Unions and FGN The agreement is being implemented and it provides for the payment of severance, pensions and gratuity of all the 47,913 workers of PHCN After a rigorous process of verification, the FGN has started paying the workers of PHCN their entitlements This will ensure that we have a seamless process of handover to the owners of the companies in the coming weeks 18

19 Transaction Update Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN): Procurement of a Management Services Contractor A successor company of PHCN Incorporated in November 2005 following enactment of EPSR Act 2005 Owns and operates the transmission system from 132kV and above; Currently functions as an integrated TSP, SO and MO 19

20 Functions of TCN TSP SO MO Design, specification, construction and commissioning of transmission assets Inspection, preventive, corrective and planned maintenance of installations Connections to network Efficient generation scheduling and dispatch Demand forecasting, system and operational planning Enforcement of Grid Code compliance Fault management and system restoration (after collapses) Bulk electricity metering Electricity market settlements (balancing energy and cash) Management of payments from Discos and payments to Gencos 20

21 Importance of TCN TCN is the middle link in the electricity value chain Generation successor companies NIPP Kainji Hydro Jebba Hydro Shiroro Hydro Egbin Delta Afam Sapele IPP s Market Transmission and System Operator Operator Distribution Abuja Kaduna Enugu Ikeja Ibadan Jos Port Harco Eko Benin Kano Yola Customers Low Voltage Medium Voltage High Voltage 21

22 Rationale for TCN MC The need to place TCN on the path of best practice, reliability and self sustenance in order to ensure predictability and security of the transmission system; Management contractor will bring in external experience on sector development The current design of the management contract provides clear targets and incentives Contractual obligation for capacity building of TCN staff to prepare them for future roles, postmanagement contract The Management contractor will enable the complete unbundling and independent operation of the System and Market Operator functions into an Independent System Operator, allowing the entities to concentrate on their core functions and thus further position the industry for sustainability and efficiency. 22

23 PROCESS FOR SELECTION OF THE MANAGEMENT CONTRACTOR On December 19, 2011, RFPs were issued to ESBI, PGC and MHI. ESBI declined to participate. Bids were submitted on February 29, 2012 & Technical bid evaluation was conducted on March 8 and 9, MHI scored % to beat the minimum score of 75%,while PGC scored 61.92% and thus failed to pre-qualify for opening of their financial bid. MHI s financial bid was opened on Tuesday April 3 at a well attended ceremony and negotiations commenced immediately thereafter. NCP approved the technical result outcome and BPE s request to commence negotiations with MHI The contract was signed on July and the 8 MHI Key Personnel, designated as the executive management team, resumed on July 30,

24 Current Status of MHI Contract The management contractor delivered 18 milestone reports on different facets of how TCN is to be transformed MHI has taken full control of the management of TCN and the board has been constituted The contract is for an initial period of three years and renewable for another two years, respectively It is expected that TCN will be, post-management contract, be concessioned The second year of the contract has recently commenced, with a requirement for the determination of specific key performance indicators 24

25 Prospects of the Privatization Programme The privatization programme is anchored on the attainment of clearly defined goals and parameters In the case of the generation companies, capacity is expected to be ramped up from the current dismal levels to meet the minimum target capacities specified under the respective business plans. For the distribution companies, the performance of the business operations of the new owners will be measured on the basis of their abilities to meet the Aggregate, Technical, Commercial and Collection (ATT&C) loss targets specified in their business plans. 25

26 Prospects of the Privatization Programme Based on information from other electricity reform efforts, the nation is projected to benefit from an increase in the power generated This will boost industrial and agricultural development of the country This is empirically illustrated in how the transaction has been structured to bring about improvements in Generation capacity and efficiency in the retail end of the value chain (Distribution) 26

27 PHCN Plants Kainji Hydropower Station / Jebba Hydropower Station / same as above Shiroro Hydropower Station /600 Egbin Power Station , /1320 Afam IV & V /440 Sapele Power Station /400 Ughelli Power Station /670 Geregu Power Station /414 Omotosho Power Station Olorunsogo Total PHCN NIPP Plants Olorunsogo Power Station ut due to Gas issues Calabar Power Station Gbaran Sapele Power Station Alaoji Power Station Omotosho Power Station Geregu Omoku 225 Egbema 338 Ihovbor 451 IPPs Plants Shell Afam VI AGIP RVSG Afam I & II RVSG T-Amadi Power Station RVSG Omoku Power Station Ibom Power Station AES Power Station Total IPPs 27

28 Prospects of the Privatization Programme From the foregoing we have three sources of generation ( PHCN, NIPP, and IPPs) There is unutilized generation capacity of 1761 MW, which is off grid, due to gas and transmission constraints from the NIPP power plants MYTO II estimates that in five years the generation capacity shall be as follows NERC MYTO projections With rapid progress experienced in addressing the gas and transmission constraints, it is expected to hit that the 2017targetwillbeattainedby

29 Current AT&C losses and purchasers Obligation to reduce losses P Successor Company Bidder Opening Loss 5 Year Remaining Loss Level Disco ATC&C Relative Target (% remaining)= (End Loss)/(Opening Loss) Abuja Kann 35.00% 12.78% 36.51% Benin Vigeo 40.00% 12.19% 30.48% Eko West Power & Gas 35.00% 12.76% 36.46% Enugu Interstate 35.00% 6.70% 19.14% Ibadan Integrated 35.00% 12.71% 36.31% Ikeja NEDC 35.00% 9.99% 28.54% Jos Aura 40.00% 18.09% 45.23% Kano Sahelian 40.00% 13.02% 32.55% Port Harcourt 4Power 40.00% 14.90% 37.25% Yola Integrated 40.00% 17.34% 43.35% Note: the final column (red) is what purchasers are contractually obligated to meet over 5 years Opening loss levels are estimated and may be adjusted following baseline studies 5 Year required remaining loss levels will be adjusted as per the purchaser obligations in the final column 29

30 Total Investment to be made in Discos Distribution Capex ($) Company Abuja $36,606,000 $36,606,000 $36,606,000 $36,606,000 $36,606,000 Benin $24,314,000 $24,314,000 $24,314,000 $24,314,000 $24,314,000 Enugu $27,230,000 $27,230,000 $27,230,000 $27,230,000 $27,230,000 Ibadan $43,865,000 $43,865,000 $43,865,000 $43,865,000 $43,865,000 Jos $22,755,000 $22,755,000 $22,755,000 $22,755,000 $22,755,000 Kaduna $29,960,000 $29,960,000 $29,960,000 $29,960,000 $29,960,000 Kano $30,379,000 $30,379,000 $30,379,000 $30,379,000 $30,379,000 Eko $45,170,000 $45,170,000 $45,170,000 $45,170,000 $45,170,000 Ikeja $58,737,000 $58,737,000 $58,737,000 $58,737,000 $58,737,000 Port Harcourt $25,514,000 $25,514,000 $25,514,000 $25,514,000 $25,514,000 Yola $13,133,000 $13,133,000 $13,133,000 $13,133,000 $13,133,000 Total $357,663,000 $357,663,000 $357,663,000 $357,663,000 $357,663,000 5 Year total Capex for Distribution Companies is almost $1.8 billion and cost reflective tariff reflected next slide 30

31 Total Investment to be made in Discos The investment to be made by the Discos must cover the commitments they have all made in their business plans, particularly, in the following areas: Metering Health, Safety and Environmental practices Reduction in number of customer interruptions, i.e. due to network faults New customer connections and network expansion Improving customer services and complaints handling procedures A cost reflective tariff has been introduced since June 1,

32 MYTO Tariff Projection The chart below shows that losses in the system represent a large proportion of the overall tariff. This is why the Disco transaction focused on reducing losses (i.e. increasing efficiency), thereby adding value to the customer AVERAGE END-USER TARIFF (NGN/kWh - nominal) Export Sales (Avg Costs) Uncollected Sales Non-Tech Losses Distribution Losses Transmission Losses Distribution Tariff Transmission Tariff Generation Tariff

33 Benefits of Privatization of Power Engine for job creation and wealth creation Electricity power sustainability, reliability and stability Lowers production cost and makes Nigeria s manufacturing sector more competitive internationally Rapid growth in power while at the same time significant reduction in FGN s expenditure Empowering other economic and social service activities such as tele-centres, healthcare delivery systems, educational institutions Empowering SMEs: welders, hairdressers/barbers, printing presses, tailors, small-scale food processors, etc. 33

34 Challenges Monitoring Investors Business Plans One of the biggest challenges in any privatisation is ensuring that necessary investments are made by the private sector/new owner Many countries experience privatisation challenges when private sector partners fail to make investments as required The power sector will require several billion dollars of expenditure over the next five years and this expenditure is needed in order to achieve the goals of the power reform program BPE has ensured that the Purchasers are contractually required to bring in this investment and BPE and the FGN will be monitoring this requirement closely and continuously This forum is encouraged to contribute innovative ways of providing cheap funds to assist investors in the power sector 34

35 Challenges Transmission Transmission is seen by some private sector participants as the weak link between Generation and Distribution While a reputable management contractor has been put in place, there is still a need to ensure that the management contractor is fully empowered to do its work There is also a need to ensure that the transmission sector is adequately supported by the government through funding, so that it can make the investments necessary for wheeling the increased generation capacity 35

36 Challenges Skilled Manpower - There is paucity of skilled manpower in the power sector - Purchasers are inheriting an aged, undisciplined and unmotivated work force - New owners need a clear strategy of managing the movement from state-run to a privately managed entity - There is need for collaboration between the Purchasers and the National Training Power Institute (NAPTIN ) to assist in bridging the manpower requirements of the sector 36

37 Challenges Gas The majority of electricity generated in Nigeria is done so through gas-fired plants Nigeria is lucky to be blessed with one of the largest reserves of natural gas in the world Still, necessary investments are needed to be made to ensure that we can access this gas and produce power As at today, we do not have the capacity to supply enough gas to support the envisaged increased capacity This will require strong incentives for the private sector to invest as well as support from the government 37

38 Regulatory Challenges Investors tend to be concerned about the lack of an extensive regulatory history There is a need for transparency, consistency and certainty in regulation making The regulator needs to adequately resourced for efficiency human capacity and funding Regulation making and tariff adjustments need to be responsive and timely 38

39 Challenges Patience Changes will not be immediate Investments in the power sector will take time in order to achieve results Construction of new generation capacity will take two to five years to achieve most of the results envisaged Expectations will need to be managed for the public to understand that a power sector cannot be built overnight and that this country is recovering from decades of underinvestment and corresponding crumbling infrastructure 39

40 Challenges Rapidly Changing Market/ Unpredictability Over the next few years, the market will be moving through a period of rapid transformation Capacity will increase and with large investments being made in the sector will be lead to some degree of predictability, for the regulator, the government, the private sector and the public The market will adjust to working under a new commercial framework, based on bankable contracts that will require adjustments and upgrading of information available, systems and technologies in place All participants will need to show flexibility and adaptability to in this situation of flux 40

41 C Conclusion The ambition of the FGN is to meet the vision 20: 2020 target of 20,000MW which requires an investment in power generating capacity alone of at least US $3. 5 billion per annum, for the next 10 years. In addition, large investments will also have to be made in power transmission and distribution. The successful privatization of the successor companies and the NIPP projects is one step towards the attainment of the above objective The baton to salvage Nigeria from darkness to light is now in the hands of the private sector 41

42 Thank You 42