Water in the UT/LS. Andrew Gettelman, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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1 Water in the UT/LS Andrew Gettelman, National Center for Atmospheric Research
2 Outline Motivation: Stratosphere, Climate, Cirrus, Chemistry, Trends Climatological Distribution of UTLS H 2 O Pathways, Distribution, Variability Simulating H 2 O in models What is good, what is bad Conclusions: Key uncertainties
3 Water Vapor Set in TTL Rosenlof, 2003
4 UTLS H 2 O dominates Longwave O3 9.6µm Pressure (hpa) Rotation CO2 15µm Continuum Wavenumber Brindley & Harries 1998 (SPARC 2000)
5 Radiative Impact of H 2 O Radiative impact of +1ppmv of stratospheric H 2 O Global: 0.29 Wm -2 (20yrs) 0.63 Wm -2 (40yrs) Forster & Shine, GRL 2002, Fig 1
6 H 2 O Important for Clouds Thin Cirrus, January (Li et al 2005, GRL)
7 H 2 O & Chemistry Chemistry affects water vapor Aerosols affect clouds H 2 O affects chemistry Ozone loss through HOx in UT Note: We need to do some chemistry! Ozone loss through NOx in LS, Ozone production through NOx in UT (CO oxidation) O 3 production from UV (not much in UT/LS)
8 Bates & Jackson 2001, GRL Long Term UTH trends HIRS/TOVS trends
9 Water, water everywhere and not a drop to Drink Climatology of UT/LS H 2 O Sources, Sinks Distribution Key Regions Variability Daily to Long term trends Coleridge, Rhyme of the Ancient Mariner
10 Question:Sources/Sinks of H 2 O? schematic UTLS
11 Seasonal Zonal Mean (AIRS) 4 panel AIRS
12 Seasonal Mean RH (AIRS)
13 Key Regions Summer Monsoon (esp( Asia) Subtropical dry regions Storm Tracks & Conveyor Belts Supersaturation: : Tropics and High Lats
14 Monsoons Impact Strat Up to 75% of July-Sept vertical H 2 O flux from S. Asia!
15 Monsoon Structure MLS Aura observations (H 2 O) M. Park Also see M. Park poster (AIRS) N. Eguchi poster (UARS MLS)
16 Supersaturation: Tropics
17 Supersaturation Frequency
18 Variability Diurnal (not going to comment) Daily (Seasonal Std Deviations) Scales of variability (Hovmoller( Hovmoller) Interannual Variability: ENSO Interannual Variability: Trends
19 Humidity on my Birthday (Jan) Specific [H 2 O] Relative
20 Seasonal variability: AIRS Std deviations
21 Mid-lat UT/LS Variations
22 Tropical UT/LS variations
23 Effects of ENSO ENSO Reorganizes the Hadley-Walker Circulation and affects H 2 O up to the top of the TTL Gettelman et al, 2001, J. Clim
24 Long Term Trends SPARC Water Vapor Assessment 2000 (Rosenlof)
25 Recent Trends Balloon obs at 40 N, 20km (Oltmans, Vömel, plot Rosenlof 2003)
26 TTL Interannual Variations 82 hpa Equator Water vapor anomalies Randel et al, 2004
27 Simulating Water Vapor Use models to test assumptions Analytic/Simple Models General Circulation Models
28 Simulating H 2 O 146mb Simulated 146mb Observed Dessler & Sherwood 2000 Trajectories & Saturation Model Reproduces MLS UTH (Aug 92) With Microphysics, works to 85hPa (Gettelman et al 2002, GRL)
29 GCM Condensation Processes Ensure Mass & Energy Conservation Convection Diagnostic mass fluxes, transport Precipitation Shallow Conv/Cumulus Clouds Mass transport, precipitation Cloud Fraction Large Scale Condensation Condensation, sedimentation, precipitation Advection of moisture Liquid, Solid, Vapor (in-cloud, out of cloud)
30 Large Scale Condensation Acts if convection does not (most of the time) Effectively dehydrates the atmosphere Kicks in when RH > threshold Sundquist, Slingo scheme: Cloud at ~90% RH 100% cloud at 100% RH No supersaturation (strictly enforced) Iterate to solution Cloud condensate changes temp, changes RH! Condensate has single size r e =f(t) Sedimentation using Stokes calculation Conversion to precipitation by several terms
31 Derived Quantities: Particle Size Variation of Effective Radius (r e ) v. Temperature CAM3 In Situ Data Data: Garrett 2003, GRL, Figure 1
32 Variations: Other Models Distributions of humidity, cloud water Describe with moments Conservative, advective Also apply to cloud particle size, aerosols, etc Cloud = portion with RH > critical RH Nucleation schemes for cloud particles Homogenous v. heterogenous nucleation Bin microphysics (from cloud models) Or: embedded cloud model (1-3D)
33 Model v. Observations Mean H 2 O seasonal Standard Deviations Seasonal Cycle Tape recorder Isentropic transport Interannual variations: ENSO Trends: long term, recent change
34 Zonal Mean CAM RH & Diff
35 Seasonal Comparison: 250mb DJF JJA
36 Seasonal Comparison: 700mb DJF JJA
37 Simulating Cloud Water Models differ by factor of 2! ECMWF=mostly model for IWC
38 High Frequency: The Tropopause Can we reproduce all scales of variability? ±10K GPS Data: DJF (Randel et al 2003, Fig 4) WACCM2: Jan-Feb
39 Daily Subtropical 200hPa RH
40 Seasonal Variability
41 Simulated Tape Recorder UARS / HALOE MOZART3 H 2 O (ppmv) Randel, et al., JGR, 106, 14313, 2001 MATCH CCM3.6 column physics Park et al., 2003, JGR
42 Modeled Tape Recorder & ENSO Mean H 2 O H 2 O Anomalies WACCM GCM Run w/ observed SST: D. Marsh, 2004
43 Variability: ENSO DJF H 2 O (Q) Observations (MLS) Model (observed SSTs)
44 Lower stratosphere H 2 O trends ~ 40 N: WACCM vs. HALOE v. Balloons WACCM N WACCM Randel et al (JAS, 2004) No agreement among model and observations, or among the observations!
45 Simulated H 2 O Trends Solar Variability (11-yr cycle) CH 4 Oxidation (and ENSO, T) 5.0 ppmv 6.3 ppmv ENSO and Temperature The behavior of water vapor is complex in WACCM: influenced by secular trend in CH 4, solar cycle, and ENSO - WACCM does not have a QBO. Linear trends not well defined in short records No recent changes in H 2 O at tropical tropopause (post 2000)
46 What do models do well Extratropics Dynamically forced, strong temperature forcing Even Antarctica okay! General circulation Subtropics dry (magnitudes may not be right) Important for climate Long term variability Global means, radiatively forced trends ENSO response (atmosphere only) Tape Recorder Isentropic transport
47 Model Failures Variability Extratropics okay, tropics not okay (convection) Double ITCZ is a general problem Supersaturation Key UT/LS issue. Models have bulk condensation. Isolation and resolution of tropopause Does it matter (e.g. Tape recorder?) Right answer for right or wrong reasons? Isotopes tell us we are not doing badly.
48 Key Science Questions to Test What are key biases in the model? Tropopause, Double ITCZ How does UTH vary and change? UT H 2 O feedbacks critical How do we handle supersaturation (ice)? Aerosol impacts on cloud particles Aerosol indirect effects? How do interactions affect model biases? Aerosols, Clouds, Convection, Chemistry
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