Bank Credit Conditions and their Influence on Productivity Growth: Company-level Evidence
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1 Bank Credt Condtons and ther Influence on Productvty Growth: Company-level Evdence Rebecca Rley*, Chara Rosazza Bondbene* and Garry Young** *Natonal Insttute of Economc and Socal Research & Centre For Macroeconomcs **Bank of England & Centre For Macroeconomcs Productvty and Frm Growth Workshop NIESR 11 November 2014 Dsclamers: Any vews expressed cannot be taken to represent those of the Bank of England or to state Bank of England polcy. Acknowledgements: The fnancal support of the Economc and Socal Research Councl grant reference ES/K00378X/1 s gratefully acknowledged.
2 Dsclamer Any vews expressed cannot be taken to represent those of the Bank of England or to state Bank of England polcy.
3 Motvaton The productvty puzzle t remans unclear how and to what extent the lack of credt has affected productvty Dffcult to dsentangle what s a change n credt supply and what s a change n credt demand A credt supply shock may reduce labour productvty: Bank forbearance (prevalence of zombe companes) Resource reallocaton across companes hampered Reducton n nvestment due to dffculty n accessng fnance
4 A Quas-Experment Explot exogenous varaton nduced by the fnancal crss n credt avalablty to companes to nvestgate mpacts of credt supply shocks Compare outcomes for companes who were subjected to tougher credt constrants to outcomes for companes that were less lkely to be constraned Quas-expermental approach Dvde frm observatons nto treatment and control groups based on man bank lender Dffculty swtchng to a new lender durng the crss Provde drect estmates of the mpact of credt constrants on UK frms Here we consder mpacts on frm survval and productvty
5 bass ponts The Dfferent Experences of UK Banks Bank fundng costs (CDS prema) Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan From the Large Revew: Havng lent aggressvely n the run-up to the crss, RBS s lendng volumes to SMEs have fallen faster than peers and ts market share has contracted from an unsustanably hgh share n 2008, to a level more consstent wth ts customer base.
6 bass pont dfferental The Dfferent Experences of the Bg Four UK Banks Credt Default Swap Prema Dfferentals Recaptalsaton of LBG & RBS Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 RBS vs HSBC LBG vs HSBC RBS vs Barclays LBG vs Barclays
7 Dstressed Banks LBG RBS Other BANK OF SCOTLAND NATIONAL WESTMINSTER BANK AIB GROUP LLOYDS TSB ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GOVERNOR AND COMPANY OF BANK OF IRELAND LLOYDS BANK ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND COMMERCIAL SERVICES ANGLO IRISH BANK CORPORATION TSB BANK WESTMINSTER BANK ALLIED IRISH BANKS BANK OF WALES RBS INVOICE FINANCE CAPITAL HOME LOANS HALIFAX LOMBARD NORTH CENTRAL FIRST TRUST BANK HBOS WILLIAMS & GLYN'S BANK TRUSTEE SAVINGS BANK ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND SECURITY TRUSTEE NORRN ROCK TSB COMMERCIAL FINANCE NATIONAL PROVINCIAL BANK ALLIANCE & LEICESTER TSB ENGLAND & WALES ULSTER BANK BRADFORD & BINGLEY BUILDING SOCIETY TSB ASSET FINANCE MORTGAGE EXPRESS
8 Not Dstressed Banks HSBC Other HSBC BANK CLYDESDALE BANK COUTTS & COMPANY MIDLAND BANK YORKSHIRE BANK CLOSE BRORS HSBC INVOICE FINANCE CO-OPERATIVE BANK CLOSE INVOICE FINANCE HSBC INVOICE FINANCE SECURITY HOLDER SANTANDER SKIPTON BUILDING SOCIETY ABBEY NATIONAL NORWICH UNION MORTGAGE FINANCE Barclays NATIONWIDE BUILDING SOCIETY BIBBY FINANCIAL SERVICES MORTGAGE WORKS VENTURE FINANCE BARCLAYS BANK PARAGON MORTGAGES GRIFFIN CREDIT SERVICES WOOLWICH MORTGAGE TRUST ROYAL TRUST CORPORATION OF CANADA TRUSTEE COUTTS & CO SVENSKA HANDELSBANKEN AB PUBL
9 Data: Fnancal Analyss Made Easy (FAME) Company Accounts nformaton held by Companes House provded by Bureau Van Djk annual hstorcal dscs subsdares removed from the dataset Chargeholder recorded tells us whch banks a company s borrowng from Data ssues selectve reportng of key accounts nformaton reportng of employment and output s partcularly sparse declne over tme n tendency to report detaled accountng nformaton self-reportng of SIC codes
10 Dfference-n-dfferences set-up Treatment (T) and Control (C) group T = Companes wth an outstandng charge wth a DISTRESSED BANK at the tme the bank was rescued C = Companes wth an outstandng charge wth a NOT DISTRESSED BANK at the same tme Track dfference n the development of outcomes between the T and C groups snce bank rescue/fnancal crss FY 2007/8 or FY 2008/9 (PRE-perod) - FY 2011/12 or FY 2012/13 (POST-perod) And compare ths to dfferences n the development of outcomes between these two groups before the crss
11 Dfference-n-dfferences set-up (contnued) Y t cons DB DB NDB NDB post DB post DB NDB post NDB controls t u t where ( DB NDB ) dentfes the effect of beng stuck wth a dstressed bank. Further nteractons ncluded to dstngush the treatment effect by addtonal characterstcs H H H post H DB H DB NDB H NDB DB post H DB NDB post H NDB where ( ) ( DB NDB DB NDB ) dentfes the effect of beng type H and stuck wth a dstressed bank.
12 Rato of Dstressed to Not Dstressed Banks Short term loans and overdrafts held by companes wth outstandng charges n DISTRESSED and NOT DISTRESSED banks Source: FAME BvD and authors calculatons. Notes: Companes n the non-fnancal non-farm busness sectors excludng the Mnng and Real Estate ndustres. Companes who do not have an outstandng charge wth any other lender and who report ther loans.
13 2008=1 Medan short term loans and overdrafts held by companes wth outstandng charges n DISTRESSED and NOT DISTRESSED banks Not Dstressed Dstressed Source: FAME BvD and authors calculatons. Notes: Companes n the non-fnancal non-farm busness sectors excludng the Mnng and Real Estate ndustres. Companes who do not have an outstandng charge wth any other lender and who report ther debt.
14 2008=1 Medan labour productvty for companes wth outstandng charges n DISTRESSED and NOT DISTRESSED banks Not Dstressed Dstressed Source: FAME BvD and authors calculatons. Notes: Companes n the non-fnancal non-farm busness sectors excludng the Mnng and Real Estate ndustres. Companes who do not have an outstandng charge wth any other lender and who report ther debt.
15 PNFC Swtchng Between Lenders Probablty of changng lender after: 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years All* Bg Four Source: FAME BvD and authors calculatons. Notes: Companes n the non-fnancal non-farm busness sectors excludng the Mnng and Real Estate ndustres. Companes who do not have an outstandng charge wth any other lender. Bg Four = RBS, Lloyds, HSBC, Barclays. Swtchng to another lender evaluated over the perod *Swtchng between 15 categores of lender
16 Sample Characterstcs (loan sample ) NDB DB NDB DB Ext rate (4 years) Start-up Ext rate (3 years) Young Total asset dstrbuton Foregn owned nd quntle Exporter rd quntle Count court judgment 0-24 mths th quntle Normal credt score th quntle Short term gearng >50th pctle Group accounts Short term gearng >75th pctle Full accounts Companes Notes: Companes n the non-fnancal non-farm busness sectors excludng the Mnng and Real Estate ndustres. Companes who do not have an outstandng charge wth any other lender and who report short term loans and overdrafts. Control group equals companes wth an outstandng charge wth a not dstressed bank. Treatment group equals companes wth an outstandng charge wth a dstressed bank. Fnancal years
17 Sample Characterstcs (productvty sample ) NDB DB NDB DB Ext rate (4 years) Start-up Ext rate (3 years) Young Total asset dstrbuton Foregn owned nd quntle Exporter rd quntle Count court judgment 0-24 mths th quntle Normal credt score th quntle Short term gearng >50th pctle Group accounts Short term gearng >75th pctle Full accounts Labour productvty >50th pctle Labour productvty >75th pctle Companes Notes: Companes n the non-fnancal non-farm busness sectors excludng the Mnng and Real Estate ndustres. Companes who do not have an outstandng charge wth any other lender and who report short term loans and overdrafts and for whom we can measure labour productvty and fxed assets. Control group equals companes wth an outstandng charge wth a not dstressed bank. Treatment group equals companes wth an outstandng charge wth a dstressed bank. Fnancal years
18 Ext Rate effect of beng wth a natonalsed bank Ext perod Full sample Loan sample Productvty sample 4-year *** (0.0019) *** (0.0037) (0.0070) 3-year *** (0.0016) *** (0.0030) (0.0053) Leverage poston Productvty poston 4-year BELOW 50th ** (0.0045) ** (0.0079) BELOW 50th (0.0117) 4-year ABOVE 50th * (0.0061) (0.0135) ABOVE 50th *** (0.0083) 3-year BELOW 50th *** (0.0035) ** (0.0058) BELOW 50th (0.0086) 3-year ABOVE 50th (0.0051) (0.0104) ABOVE 50th * (0.0061) 4-year BELOW 75th *** (0.0039) * (0.0071) BELOW 75th (0.0085) 4-year ABOVE 75th (0.0103) (0.0275) ABOVE 75th (0.0112) 3-year BELOW 75th *** (0.0031) (0.0053) BELOW 75th (0.0064) 3-year ABOVE 75th (0.0085) (0.0210) ABOVE 75th (0.0083) Notes: OLS regresson; robust standard errors n brackets clustered by frm. 3-6 %ponts added to the ext rate
19 Ext Rate effects (pre-crss falsfcaton test) Ext perod Full sample Loan sample Productvty sample 4-year (0.0019) (0.0034) (0.0067) 3-year * (0.0019) (0.0032) (0.0060) Leverage poston Productvty poston 4-year BELOW 50th (0.0044) (0.0078) BELOW 50th (0.0109) 4-year ABOVE 50th (0.0058) (0.0131) ABOVE 50th (0.0085) 3-year BELOW 50th (0.0039) (0.0067) BELOW 50th (0.0099) 3-year ABOVE 50th (0.0054) (0.0119) ABOVE 50th (0.0073) 4-year BELOW 75th (0.0037) (0.0069) BELOW 75th (0.0080) 4-year ABOVE 75th * (0.0098) (0.0261) ABOVE 75th (0.0124) 3-year BELOW 75th (0.0034) (0.0061) BELOW 75th (0.0072) 3-year ABOVE 75th (0.0093) (0.0238) ABOVE 75th (0.0105) Notes: OLS regresson; robust standard errors n brackets clustered by frm.
20 Ext Rates by Bg-4 Lender (Blateral Comparsons) Bank Ext perod Treatment Comparson Full sample Loan sample Productvty sample 4-year RBS HSBC *** (0.0026) *** (0.0053) (0.0113) 4-year LBG HSBC ** (0.0031) *** (0.0062) (0.0124) 4-year Barclays HSBC (0.0030) (0.0060) (0.0118) 4-year RBS Barclays *** (0.0028) (0.0054) (0.0094) 4-year LBG Barclays *** (0.0033) ** (0.0063) (0.0107) 4-year RBS Lloyds (0.0029) (0.0056) (0.0101) 3-year RBS HSBC *** (0.0023) *** (0.0044) (0.0085) 3-year LBG HSBC *** (0.0028) *** (0.0051) (0.0095) 3-year Barclays HSBC (0.0027) ** (0.0050) (0.0091) 3-year RBS Barclays *** (0.0024) (0.0044) (0.0072) 3-year LBG Barclays *** (0.0028) ** (0.0052) (0.0083) 3-year RBS Lloyds (0.0025) (0.0046) (0.0077) Notes: OLS regresson; robust standard errors n brackets clustered by frm.
21 Summary Companes that borrowed from banks that became dstressed (and natonalsed) were more lkely to ext the market n the years followng natonalsaton compared to a counterfactual where they had borrowed from a bank that dd not become dstressed Some evdence that natonalsed banks dffered from other banks n contrbutng to the ext of Lower leverage companes Hgher productvty companes Productvty n survvng companes Lookng at companes that stay n busness we do not detect a general effect on short term loans, captal ntensty, or productvty of beng assocated wth a dstressed bank (comparng several years before and after the crss) Data weaknesses may be contrbutng to ths
22 Conclusons Dd a credt supply shock contrbute to a reducton n productvty? Maybe yes, by contrbutng to the ext of potentally productve companes Less dfferental across banks n contrbuton to ext of hgh leverage companes Evdence of forbearance? Or s t just that hgh leverage companes are more lkely to ext n a recesson (regardless of the lender)? Are credt constrants a key drver of recent productvty weakness? Key explanatons of recent productvty weakness need to be able to explan the weakness of productvty wthn companes No obvous correlaton at the sector level between the productvty devaton from trend or reallocaton effects on productvty and bank dependence To what extent are these results applcable more wdely? Not clear that we can extrapolate from ths experment to credt shocks more generally Banks could de-leverage n alternate ways. Credt tghtenng by good banks mght also have contrbuted to productvty weakness. Data ssues.
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