FACTSHEET. Figure [1]: Economic Complexity Index vs. Opportunity Value (Positive Product Complexity Index, 2011) 2 ESP ITA POL BEL DNK PRT

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1 Opportunity Value Median = FACTSHEET Knowledge Economy Assessment of Tunisia - Identifying and addressing capability and innovation gaps in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean region (SEMED) Overriding question addressed: In which sectors and companies can EBRD investments and support make a difference in boosting innovation, generating job creation, developing the knowledge economy in Tunisia while generating returns? What is driving knowledge based capabilities improvement or holding it up? Where are the relevant capability and innovation gaps? How to address them in practice: which companies or projects to target? Methodology: A focus on capabilities - The study included 51 local interviews with public and private stakeholders, and research covered value chains, territory and knowledge based assessments. It is mainly based on the principle of economic complexity, which is expressed in the «composition of a country s productive output and reflects the structures that emerge to hold and combine knowledge» 1. The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) measures this definition of knowledge. The ECI explains 15% of the contribution to the variance of economic growth across all countries over a period of 12 years. Figure [1]: Economic Complexity Index vs. Opportunity Value (Positive Product Complexity Index, 2011) Morocco: How to build capabilities to support the knowledge economy? IRQ Median = NGA AGO GIN MAR PAK KEN GTM SYR LKA PER ALB DOMAUS TUNARG ZAF NZL Economic Complexity Index COL AFG LVA THA BIH UKR CAN TZA HNDKGZ ZWE MUS CHL ARM NOR UZB RUS DMA MNE MDG GEO UGA PRY FJI SLE ECU SWZ NIC LAO JAM BHR BGD BOL ERI CRI MMR SEN BFA MWI KHM ISL GHATGO TJK BWA MOZ IRN KAZ CPV ETH CIV BLZ ZMB NAM GRD GUY HTI RWA DJI TKM OMNCUB MNG GMB BTN MLI BEN SOM SYC NER SAU BHS CMR PNG YEM BDI COD SDN MDV CAF SUR LSO LBR KIR AZE FSMDZA TTO VEN QATKWT COG MRT GAB TCD GNB LBY MHL COM GNQ BRN VNM IDN NPL EGY MKD MDA SLV IND GRC LBN URY JOR PHL ARE BRA PAN TUR PRK BGR SRB CYP PRT LTUROU BLR MYS CHN ESTHRV AND ESP NLD MEX ISR ITA POL BEL DNK STP BRB IRL LUX FRA USA SVN HUN GBR SVK SGP ATG AUT CZE SWE FIN KOR CHE DEU JPN Tunisia: How to unlock the capability potential? 1 Source: Hausmann, Hidalgo et al. (2011) 2 Source :Hausmann, Hidalgo et al., Whiteshield Analysis

2 Economic context: developing Knowledge Economy Tunisia is an upper-middle-income country with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growing by 3.5% annually in the pre-revolution period of , with a GDP per capita of EUR 3,310 4 in In 2011, exports accounted for 51% 5 of the country s GDP. Seven sectors accounted for 80% of goods and service trade: Textile manufacturing, electronic, electrical and mechanical manufacturing, Chemical manufacturing, Agriculture, Tourism and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) 6. In 2011, Services accounted for more than 45% of GDP 7. ICT sector alone represented 10% of the country's GDP 8 and shows high potential in Tunisia, with an estimated market of 4.8 B and a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6% from 2007 to The industrial sectors are also well represented in the economy, with an increased weight of Electronics and Electrical Industries (EEI), amounting to an estimated market of over 2.2 B in 2012 growing by 16% from 2005 to Key barriers and opportunities: A focus on ICT, EEI and healthcare Despite the macroeconomic instability linked to the political transition phase, there are favorable economic conditions for building knowledge economy. The output of innovation activity is low. Key barriers to innovation-based development include inappropriate legal framework for innovation support, lack of liquidity and poor linkages within the innovation system. 3 Source: Data World Bank, Note: GDP in PPP, growth defined as year on year growth from Source: Data Bank of the World Bank, Source :Data World Bank, 6 Source: Agency for Promotion of Industry and Innovation (APII) 7 Source: Institute National of Statistics Tunisia : Note: GDP in PPP in Source: Foreign Investment Promotion Agency (FIPA), Note: GDP in PPP 9 Source: IDC CEMA Black Book Source : Foreign Investment Promotion Agency

3 Figure [2]: Main gaps and barriers to the development of the knowledge economy, as cited by both public and private sector Low efficiency of policy implementation, inefficient legal framework for innovation Burdensome taxation Public Policy Access to finance is a key barrier to doing business High macroeconomic risks Export biased towards third tier suppliers High territorial segmentation Innovation Eco-system Poor access to finance Low efficiency of innovation infrastructure and informational support Inefficient collaboration between the universities and the private sector Capabilities and Value Chain networks Human Capital Knowledge Economy Assessment (Chapter One) Market Demand Low participation in the workforce, especially among women High general level of education, but mismatch between public university offer and demand from the private sector. Lack of scientists, publications and patents. Opportunities and Gaps (Chapter Two) Knowledge Economy Assessment: Tunisia holds strong positions in the traditional sectors (Textile, Fertilizers and Agriculture) and in the low end of the knowledge economy value chain networks (Electric components, Metal and mechanical structures, Inorganic chemicals, low-end ICT and Offshoring services). The highest opportunities are associated with moving up the value chain networks in the knowledge economy sectors Medical and scientific electronic equipment, Automobile and aircraft electronic components, Hardware electronics, Mobile solutions, E-payments and R&D engineering.

4 Figure [3]: Tunisia Innovation Investment Index 11 Note: Industrial products are in grey, ICT and Offshoring services are in blue The Innovation Investment Index is composed of four dimensions, each aimed at answering one particular question. All dimensions are included into the final index with the weight of 25%. Within each dimension all indicators are scaled and averaged. 11 Source: Whiteshield analysis

5 Intervention and investment opportunities: Based on identified gaps, a potential EBRD activities roadmap is proposed. Figure [3]: EBRD potential policy road map in Tunisia Note: Time for implementation is time to shape and implement recommended actions Projects for consideration: Over 600 companies were screened - 5 projects in traditional sectors and infrastructure, as well 20 investment target companies operating in the knowledge economy were selected. The top 20 projects operating in knowledge economy related sectors, mainly in ICT and EEI were ranked according to the potential size of deal with the EBRD (i.e. the amount that EBRD could invest in these target companies and projects): Venture capital deals (1-5 M); Private equity deals (5-50 M); Platform collaborative projects deals ( M).