The Tale of Two Networks

Transcription

1 The Tale of Two Networks Video Driving Demand / M2M Driving Connections Implications for Europe 21 St Century Connectivity: Lessons for Europe November 2015

2 Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) 10 th Year Global IP Traffic Growth & Service Adoption Cisco VNI Forecasts are complementary and statistically aligned. Fixed & Mobile IP Traffic Forecast Service Adoption Forecast Residential Mobile Business

3 VNI Projections and Actuals (Global) Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth 40% 35% 34,2% 35.6% Projected in 2010 Actual Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% CAGR

4 Europe IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Europe IP Traffic will Increase 3-Fold from % CAGR Exabytes per Month ,7 27,4 21,7 17,4 11,9 14,2 *Note Europe defined as Western Europe + CEE, excluding Russia

5 Europe IP Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers By 2019: More Internet Users Million 596 Million IP Broadband Growth Drivers More Devices & Connections Faster Fixed Broadband Speeds Billion 4.7 Billion Mbps 46.9 Mbps More Video Viewing % of Traffic 78% of Traffic *Note Europe defined as Western Europe + CEE, excluding Russia

6 Europe IP Traffic Growth IP Video Will Account for 78 Percent of Europe IP Traffic by 2019 Exabytes per Month Gaming (0.09%, 0.15% ) File Sharing (16.7%, 6.1% ) Web/Data (25.0%, 16.0% ) IP VoD (15.2%, 9.7% ) Internet Video (43.0%, 68.1% ) 24% CAGR * Figures (n) refer to 2014 and 2019 traffic shares *Note Europe defined as Western Europe + CEE, excluding Russia

7 Europe Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video to Exceed 72 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019 Petabytes per Month Mobile File Sharing (1%,2%) Mobile Audio (8%,7%) Mobile Web/Data/VoIP (37%,19%) Mobile Video (53%,72%) 59% CAGR * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 mobile data traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Note Europe defined as Western Europe + CEE, excluding Russia

8 Higher Definition Content Impacts Europe IP Video Growth HD & UHD IP Video Will Account for 68% of Europe IP Video Traffic by Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.3%, 11.7% ) High Def (HD) Video (39.7%, 56.3% ) Standard Def (SD) Video (60.0%, 31.9% ) 31% CAGR Exabytes per Month * Figures (n) refer to 2014 and 2019 traffic shares *Note Europe defined as Western Europe + CEE, excluding Russia

9 Europe Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic Driven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster Than Average Hour Traffic Rate (Tbps) Busy Hour Average Hour *Note Europe defined as Western Europe + CEE, excluding Russia

10 Europe Connected Device Growth by Type By 2019, 4.7 Billion Connections from 2.6 Connections in 2014 Biggest Growth in Devices is M2M, with 50% of Total Connections by 2019 Billions of Devices 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 Other (8.4%,8.0%) Tablets (4%,5%) PCs (13%,12%) TVs (12%,13%) Non-Smartphones (19%,15%) Smartphones (14%,15%) M2M (29%,50%) * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share *Note Europe defined as Western Europe + CEE, excluding Russia

11 Europe Internet Traffic by Device Type... M2M Traffic Only Reaches 3% by Exabytes per Month Other (0.2%,0.2%) Non-Smartphones (0%,0%) M2M (1%,3%) TVs (8%,7%) Tablets (6%,29%) Smartphones (7%,25%) PCs (79%,35%) * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share *Note Europe defined as Western Europe + CEE, excluding Russia

12 Global M2M Connections / IoE Growth By Vertical Connected Home Largest, Connected Health Fastest Growth 12,0 Wide Range of Device Requirements Billions of M2M Connections 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 - *Other includes Agriculture, Construction & Emergency Services 4% 7% 8% 11% 17% 48% Other* (38.2% CAGR) Energy (31.9% CAGR) Manufacturing & Supply Chain (8.9% CAGR) Retail (10.5% CAGR) Connected Cities (28.2% CAGR) Connected Health (49.4% CAGR) Connected Car (37.3% CAGR) Utilities (21% CAGR) Connected Work (Ent Mgmnt) (29.4% CAGR) Connected Home (23.1% CAGR)

13 Key Takeaways Tale of two networks Traffic being driven by video Connections driven by devices Growing network complexity Users expect to be connected on every platform, everywhere Need to manage for complexity as well as capacity/congestion

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15 Connected Home Connected Work Utilities Connected Car Connected Health Home automation Building security Network equipment printers + Network infrastructure routers + White goods Tracking applications Household information devices Office building automation Building security Office equipment printers + Routers + Commercial appliances Electric vehicle charging Smart metering Fleet management In-vehicle entertainment systems, emergency calling, Internet Vehicle diagnostics, navigation Stolen vehicle recovery Lease, rental, insurance management Health monitors Assisted living medicine dispensers + Clinical trials First responder connectivity Telemedicine Connected Cities Retail Manufacturing & Supply Chain Energy Other Environment and public safety closed-circuit TV, street lighting, waste removal, information + Public space advertising Public transport Road traffic management Retail goods monitoring and payment Retail venue access and control Slot machines, vending machines Mining and extraction Manufacturing and processing Supply chain Warehousing and storage New energy sources monitoring and power generation support apps Smart grid and distribution Micro-generation generation of power, by residential, commercial and community users on their own property Agriculture livestock, soil monitoring, water and resource conservation, temperature control for milk tanks + Construction: Site and equipment monitoring Emergency services and national security