Including Climate Change Risks in Prioritization for Asset Management. Emily Grenzke CH2M HILL, Transit and Sustainability Washington, DC

Transcription

1 Including Climate Change Risks in Prioritization for Asset Management Emily Grenzke CH2M HILL, Transit and Sustainability Washington, DC

2 The impacts of climate change are felt across all transit asset classes TRANSIT ASSET TYPES Stations & Facilities: Buildings Guideway Elements: Track & Structures Vehicle Fleet Systems: Electrification Systems: Train Control & Communications EXTREME HEAT HVAC equipment stress Track buckling/ Expansion kinks Increased inspection needs HVAC equipment stress Power outages Speed restrictions Failing switches *Note: Taken from actual 2014 Polar Vortex issues on Chicago rail lines EXTREME PRECIPITATION Flooding damage Pumping demand Drainage stress Culvert damage Washouts/ debris Speed restrictions Bridge damage Flooded tunnels Water damage (electrical, mechanical, & aesthetic) Increased stowage needs Third rail damage/loss of function Labor demands Signal damage EXTREME COLD/ SNOW* Slips & falls Loss of access/ parking space Blocked or broken track Speed restrictions Ice & snow build up on rail car undercarriages Sticking doors Loss of third rail function-w/o heaters or deicing Power outages Loss of switch, frog & other interlocking functions

3 These impacts can be captured in tools used for transit asset management One such tool is RTA s Capital Optimization Support Tool Based on FTA s TERM Lite Model Built to analyze assets for Chicago s three Service Boards: CTA, Metra & Pace COST is designed to Assess current size of state of good repair (SGR) backlog Assess current and future asset conditions Assess long-term capital reinvestment needs and impact of funding constraints Prioritize reinvestment needs based on agency investment criteria 3

4 COST applications: Projects future reinvestment needs, backlog & condition Determine level of funding required to attain a desired SGR Backlog Billions $16 $14 Distribution of Asset Conditions by Asset Category: CTA $12 Assess impact of expansion investments on future needs Estimate condition based on decay curves and age $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 4 Facilities Guideway Elements Stations Systems Vehicles Excellent Good Adequate Marginal Worn

5 COST uses Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for prioritizing asset investments All assets scored on five criteria Each criteria scored on 1 to 5 scale Scores weighted, summed, & converted to 100 point scale Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) Based Approach Asset Condition Riders Impacted Service Reliability Safety / Security O&M Costs Score: Declining condition yields higher points score Score: Based on number of riders served by asset location Score: Reduced risk of service failures/disruptions Score: Reduced risk of injuries, fatalities, property damage Score: Impact on Operating & Maintenance costs X% X% X% X% X% Weighted Average Total Investment Score: (Converted to 100 Point Scale) 6 th Criteria Added for Resilience 5

6 A risk management approach for prioritizing resiliency investments Ideally risk management will result in risk impacts decreasing from Critical or High to Low or Minimal For investment prioritization this means addressing assets exposed to high risk with high impact on ridership as a priority in capital programming Consequence Likelihood Minimal Low Medium High Critical Near Certainty > 90% Critical Level Risk Event Likely 51%-90% Possible 31%-50% Unlikely 10%-30% Remote < 10% Min Level Risk Event Low Level Risk Event Med Level Risk Event High Level Risk Event

7 Consequence rating by asset type Consequence ratings: Are based on asset types vulnerability to extreme events Do not directly consider ridership impacts (already in COST) Will vary by agency depending on current systems, existing resiliency (equipment and design) and storage practices/locations ASSET TYPES (CATEGORY LEVEL) STATIONS & FACILITIES: BUILDINGS TRACK & STRUCTURES VEHICLE FLEET SYSTEMS: ELECTRIFICATION & UTILITIES SYSTEMS: COMMUNICATIONS & TRAIN CONTROL CONSEQUENCE (SUB CATEGORY LEVEL) LIKELIHOOD Utilities, Drainage, HVAC, Access, Platforms:Medium Dependent on Location Other Components: Low Trackwork/Rail, Tunnels, Dependent on Pumping/Drainage: Critical Location Other Guideway Elements: High Revenue: Low Dependent on Non Revenue: Low Location Contact Rail, Utilities: High Dependent on Substations, Cabling: Medium Location Communications: Minimal Dependent on Train Control: High Location

8 Likelihood rating of individual assets based on location Using CTA rail inventory: Compare Chicago heat islands to CTA heavy rail lines & facilities for likelihood Translated heat exposure to asset location table in COST Loc CC LocCode LocType ID Likelihood 133 CTA_HR_Modewide Modewide CTA_HR_Blue_DearbornSub Branch CTA_HR_Blue_ForestPark Branch CTA_HR_Blue_OHare Branch CTA_HR_Brown Branch CTA_HR_Green_Lake Branch CTA_HR_Green_South Branch CTA_HR_Loop Branch CTA_HR_Orange Branch CTA_HR_Pink Branch CTA_HR_Purple_Evanston Branch CTA_HR_Red_DanRyan Branch CTA_HR_Red_NorthSide Branch CTA_HR_Red_StateStreetSub Branch CTA_HR_Yellow Branch CTA_HR_RevVehicle RevVehicle CTA_HR_MajorFacility MajorFacility CTA_HR_Des Plaines _Facility Facility CTA_HR_Harlem_Facility Facility CTA_HR_Howard_Facility Facility CTA_HR_Kimball_Facility Facility CTA_HR_Linden_Facility Facility CTA_HR_Midway_Facility Facility CTA_HR_Racine_Facility Facility CTA_HR_Rosemont_Facility Facility CTA_HR_Skokie Shops_Facility Facility CTA_HR_54th_Facility Facility CTA_HR_61st_Facility Facility CTA_HR_98th_Facility Facility 2

9 Priority scoring of asset types for climate change risk in COST Priority scoring in COST assigned by asset type 1 Lowest Priority to 5 Highest Priority Consequence (1-5 Scale)/5 x Likelihood (1-5 Scale)/5 = Climate Change Priority Include Resilience Criteria in Weights Result: All else equal, high consequence and likelihood assets will be prioritized for replacement before those with lower scores providing opportunity for earlier implementation of hardening

10 COST Example Outputs $500 SGR Investment without Resilience Criterion $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $ SGR Investment with Resilience Criterion ($M) Facilities Guideway Elements Stations Systems Vehicles Resilience criterion changes the pattern of investment: in this case, promoting Guideway & Station assets. Also changes asset-to-project mapping.

11 Risk profile of backlog investment needs without Resilience criterion

12 Risk profile of backlog investment needs with Resilience criterion

13 Questions? Emily Grenzke CH2M HILL